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Tesla (TSLA) stock hits all-time high as Model 3 production ramps

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Tesla’s stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) reached an all-time high of $387.72 during the trading session Monday. The new record marks Tesla’s fifth consecutive day of gains, with the stock up nearly 9% in September and 78% for 2017.

While there’s no specific correlation to what is driving the stock upwards in the past few weeks, there are a number of reasons that could serve as a contributing factor.

Short Sellers

Tesla has long had a significant number of short sellers holding the stock. And in the last week of August there was a short interest increase of 546,814. As of August 31st there are a total of 29,244,600 shares short, which is the highest amount since late May 2017.

Based on the stock’s current trading volume, it would take 6.61 days for all the short sellers to get out of their positions. With the stock continuing its climb, short sellers may be cutting their loses. While this may not be a full-out short squeeze, it certainly could be furthering the stock’s gains.

Model 3

With the lack of current information outside of vague estimates of Model 3 deliveries, it seems that investors are taking that as a good sign. It has yet to be reported whether Tesla believes it will make its delivery targets, but the Palo Alto-based electric car maker hasn’t changed any delivery expectations for reservations holders.

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Additionally, the press and new owners of the Model 3 have already been giving the car high marks. If the Model 3 receives great reviews from in-depth tests this fall, one can expect the stock to react positively and continue on its meteoric rise.

Tesla Semi

On October 26th Tesla will reveal its highly anticipated electric semi. The Tesla Semi event will be held in Hawthorne, CA where the company’s design studio resides. The upcoming reveal will arguably be a great test of Tesla’s ability to develop two major products simultaneously. If Tesla can develop both a Semi-truck and Model 3 at the same time, it could reduce investors concerns of CEO Elon Musk’s abilities to deliver products on time. Let’s not forget that Musk also is the CEO of SpaceX, CEO of The Boring Company, CEO of Neuralink, Founder of OpenAI, and is now developing a full scale Hyperloop with SpaceX.

One thing is clear, as Musk knocks more and more items off his to-do list, investors reward the company with increasing valuations. If the company is able to continue this trend, we could see TSLA break $400 this year.

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Disclosure: I hold a small long position in TSLA, but do not plan on changing these positions in the next 72 hours. 

Christian Prenzler is currently the VP of Business Development at Teslarati, leading strategic partnerships, content development, email newsletters, and subscription programs. Additionally, Christian thoroughly enjoys investigating pivotal moments in the emerging mobility sector and sharing these stories with Teslarati's readers. He has been closely following and writing on Tesla and disruptive technology for over seven years. You can contact Christian here: christian@teslarati.com

Elon Musk

“We Pay for Performance”: Tesla drops details of Elon Musk’s new pay plan on X

Musk’s pay package will be voted on by Tesla shareholders at the annual meeting of stockholders this coming November 6.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has published a video highlighting Elon Musk’s new CEO Performance Award, which is expected to take the company all the way to a market cap of $8.5 trillion. 

Musk’s pay package will be voted on by Tesla shareholders at the company’s upcoming annual meeting of stockholders this coming November 6.

Tesla’s proposal

In its post, Tesla noted that the company pays for outstanding performance, not promises. Tesla noted that Musk’s previous pay plan, which has been fully accomplished, was intended to deliver billions to TSLA shareholders. This time around, the company is looking to deliver trillions to stockholders.

“We pay for outstanding performance – not for promises. In 2018, shareholders approved a groundbreaking CEO Performance Award that delivered extraordinary value. At our Annual Meeting on November 6, Tesla shareholders can vote on a pay-for-performance plan designed to drive our next era of transformational growth and value creation. Seven years ago, Elon Musk had to deliver billions to shareholders – now it’s trillions.

“This plan creates a path for Elon to secure voting rights and will retain him as a leader of the company for many years to come. But as explained below, Elon only receives voting rights after he has delivered economic value to you. Your vote matters. Vote ‘FOR’ Proposal 4!” Tesla wrote in its post on X. 

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Ambitious targets

The package calls for Elon Musk to grow Tesla’s market capitalization from its current $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion within the next decade. At that size, Tesla would surpass every other public company in history. For context, Nvidia, today’s most valuable company, is worth about $4.4 trillion, while Microsoft and Apple follow at $3.8 trillion and $3.7 trillion, respectively. Even Saudi Aramco, long among the world’s giants, holds a valuation of just $1.6 trillion.

To hit the $8.5 trillion target, Tesla must more than practically double Nvidia’s present value and expand nearly eightfold from its current scale. The plan also requires operating profit to soar from $17 billion in 2024 to $400 billion annually, while meeting ambitious product milestones: 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million Robotaxis. 

If achieved, Musk’s stake in TSLA would rise to 25%, with compensation topping $900 billion in Tesla stock. In a post on X, Musk explained that his priority with is new compensation plan is not about gathering wealth, it was about securing influence. “If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets another new price target as recent events ‘remove large overhang’

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) got another new price target this week after one firm said that recent events “have removed a large overhang on the stock.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) got another new price target this week after one firm said that recent events “have removed a large overhang on the stock.”

This year, Tesla has had an up-and-down performance on Wall Street, but gains over the past month have overshadowed much of the skepticism and pressure on the stock.

However, over the past 30 days, a lot of good things have happened: Tesla has shown it has a lot of demand for its vehicles, which will likely translate to good delivery figures, it figured out a compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, and the company’s clear focus on Robotaxi and Optimus puts it in a good position for the future as the focus comes off of quarterly deliveries.

Tesla board reveals reasoning for CEO Elon Musk’s new $1 trillion pay package

Deutsche Bank recognized these potential catalysts and wrote in a note to investors:

“Ahead of 3Q25 deliveries next week, we raise our near-term estimates given stronger volume in the quarter, but keep our full-year and 2026 outlook mostly unchanged. We think Elon Musk’s clear focus on Tesla’s most important efforts (Robotaxi and Optimus) and the recent compensation package have removed a large overhang on the stock going forward, will allow Tesla to benefit from being a leader in embodied AI.”

These points specifically pushed Deutsche Bank’s reasoning for pushing its price target to $435 from $345.

In terms of quarterly deliveries, the firm expects Tesla to report 461,500 for the quarter. “We expect +20% growth in China and N. America, with some decline in Europe as competition and branding continue to weigh in on demand,” Deutsche Bank said.

Wall Street firm makes shock move for Tesla Q3 delivery prediction

Overall, IR-compiled consensus estimates put deliveries at 443,100:

Tesla received other price target boosts this week, including one from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who bumped his outlook on the stock from $500 to a Street-high $600.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets new Street-high price target with high hopes for autonomy domination

“We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full-scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap.”

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Credit: Tesla Europe and Middle East | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a new Street-high price target from Wedbush’s Dan Ives today, who cited high hopes for the company’s prowess in the autonomous sector.

Ives boosted his price target from $500 to $600 today, reflecting the firm’s view that “an accelerated AI path for the company is now on the horizon and investors are underestimating the transformation underway at the company.”

In a new note written to investors on Friday, Ives cited that Tesla’s next stage of growth has arrived as Elon Musk has re-entered his role as a “wartime CEO,” which gives the company a huge advantage over its competitors.

Musk, when fully committed to Tesla, does his best work, and Ives believes the company’s mark on the autonomous sector will continue to expand with the help of the Trump White House.

He wrote:

“Musk is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth as ‘wartime CEO,’ and we expect Robotaxis to be rolled out aggressively to over 30 US cities within the next year. We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla, and we fully expect under a Trump White House over the coming yea,r these key initiatives will now get fast-tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb that Musk & Co. have encountered over the past few years around FSD/autonomous clears significantly under Trump. Trump wants the US to stay ahead of China in this AI Arms Race, and autonomous is a key factor in who wins AI….with Tesla playing a major role on Robotaxis.”

Most of the note focused on the long-term outlook for Tesla, which is where some of the most drastic claims were made, including ones that estimated a monstrous valuation for the company moving forward.

Ives said Wedbush is under the impression that Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap as early as the beginning of 2026 and a $3 trillion valuation by the end of the year. This growth will be primarily driven by the AI portion of the company’s projects:

“We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full-scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap. The AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story, and we believe the march to an AI-driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose for Musk & Co.”

In the near term, the only true issue at hand is deliveries, which Tesla should likely have a strong quarter thanks to the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit. Ives says he expects a beat of Q3 numbers, driven by an “improving demand out of China.”

He also said that while he expects this quarter to be strong, Tesla should aim to return to a run-rate of 500,000 deliveries every quarter, equating to approximately 2 million units per year. This will be driven by new, more affordable models, with the tax credit going away:

“On the near-term delivery front we are seeing a stabilization of demand globally that should enable Tesla to beat the Street’s 3Q delivery number with improving demand out of China. Getting back to a ~500k quarterly run-rate will be important as Tesla now looks to introduce new models to its customer base in 2026. There continues to be weak pockets in Europe but we believe Tesla is now starting to see signs of improvement in demand with a stronger growth trajectory into 2026.”

Tesla shares are up over 1.7 percent so far today, trading at around $430.

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