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Three reasons Tesla will continue to go higher in ’22, according to one of its biggest bulls

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Tesla will close out 2021 with record figures for its production and deliveries, continuing a streak that has dated back to 2012. However, 2021 is likely to be eclipsed by 2022, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who gave three reasons why Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will continue to move upward, making the new year its biggest to date.

Ives, who has been one of Tesla’s most notable bulls on the Street throughout the past couple of years, believes Tesla’s performance in 2021 showed a robust determination to navigate parts and chip shortages, vowing not to let the bottlenecks, which may cause some large automakers to report negative figures compared to last year, affect its production figures in the same fashion. Tesla routinely updated investors and enthusiasts on its ability to deter itself from chip shortages regularly, including a groundbreaking announcement during the Q2 2021 Earnings Call, where the automaker had designed, developed, and validated a series of 19 variants of controllers. This effort from Tesla engineers helped the automaker avoid and mitigate large-scale disruptions in its production and delivery process.


Tesla did this better than any other automaker, Ives said in a Tweet from Monday. The story of 2021 was likely based on this effort alone, which was monumental and could have caused serious problems for some companies, especially those without substantial cash on hand.

Looking forward to 2022, Ives sees Tesla’s impressive performance continuing, listing three main factors in the automaker’s quest to continue its meteoric rise up the ranks of global automotive companies. While Tesla leads every car company on Earth in valuation, the next goal in the company’s sights must be to increase its production and delivery numbers on an annual basis, inching closer to the one million vehicle annual run rate.

Giga Berlin and Giga Texas

Ives lists Tesla’s two new manufacturing facilities as the first point in the company’s quest for a monumental 2022. Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas were set to open in 2021. However, delays due to the pandemic and other political issues in Germany have derailed the start of either of these facilities during this year, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Tesla will come out in 2022, firing on all cylinders. Two new production facilities will launch with massive implications for the company’s growth forecast, as they will both contribute to Tesla’s consistently growing run rate. With these two factories sufficiently ramped in 2022 by Q2 or Q3, if all goes according to plan, Tesla could come close to doubling its current output in 2021 for 2022.

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China “Mega-Growth”

China has proven to be one of Tesla’s most successful markets, and Ives believes the increasing run rates out of Gigafactory Shanghai will continue to surge more growth into the company. There is no doubt that Tesla has continued to be a substantial force in China, despite robust competition and a somewhat coordinated media attack on the company’s products. However, it has not stopped Tesla from performing exceptionally well in the sector. Tesla has delivered over 50,000 vehicles per month in China for the past two months. Some monthly figures, which are confirmed by the Chinese Passenger Car Association, are lower than others due to Tesla’s strategy to export vehicles from China to Europe, where Giga Berlin is waiting for approval to begin operation.

Tesla Giga Shanghai shows off its Model 3 production efficiency in recent video

Unit growth fueled by new facilities and increased demand

Ives is forecasting a unit growth of 55 or 60 percent for Tesla in 2022, which can mostly be attributed to the new factories in Texas and Berlin. This could perhaps be Tesla’s key, along with more efficient battery cells, to an even higher stock price and valuation. However, even more, Tesla’s increased production rates could put the company on par with some of the more large-scale car companies, especially if it can cross the one million vehicle production rate annually, which should be easy considering the projected output after ramping production lines at Berlin and Texas.

Ives reiterated his $1,400 price target and the “Outperform” rating he held on Tesla stock. Ives is ranked 22nd out of 7,756 analysts on TipRanks. He also holds a 76% success rate and an average return of 36.4%.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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SpaceX’s next Starship launch is about to attempt its biggest leap yet

SpaceX targets September 22 for Starship Flight 14, its first attempt to reach real orbit.

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SpaceX has set September 22 as the target date for Starship’s 14th test flight, and this one carries a different goal than any of the 13 that came before it. Every previous Starship mission has intentionally flown a suborbital arc, reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launched. Flight 14 is designed to send the craft into a genuine orbit around Earth for the first time.

The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central time at Starbase in South Texas and runs for 75 minutes, pending regulatory approval, according to SpaceX’s mission description published Tuesday. If the flight goes as planned, Starship will circle the planet roughly six times at an altitude near 275 kilometers over about ten hours before a deorbit burn sends it toward a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a departure from the Indian Ocean recoveries used on the last several flights.

The mission also marks the first attempt to put a working batch of Starlink V3 satellites into actual service. Flight 13 carried 20 of the new satellites in July, but because that mission never left a suborbital trajectory, the payload reentered along with the ship instead of separating into orbit.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Each V3 satellite is rated for roughly one terabit per second of downlink capacity, so a successful deployment on Flight 14 would be SpaceX’s largest single jump in network bandwidth since Starlink began flying on Falcon 9.

Flight 13 still did the heavier lifting on the technical side. That July mission flew a deliberately more stressful reentry profile to test Starship’s heat shield, and the ship survived its softest splashdown yet, intact enough for drone inspections shortly after landing. Elon Musk said the flight delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some,” a result Teslarati covered in detail when he later said SpaceX had solved the vehicle’s biggest reusability challenge. Flight 14 is where SpaceX starts spending that confidence on an actual orbital insertion rather than another controlled fall back to Earth.

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One thing Flight 14 will not attempt is a tower catch of the ship. Musk floated the idea right after Flight 13, but walked the timeline back in August, saying a catch attempt was more likely “in a few months.” The Super Heavy booster will still aim for its own recovery, targeting an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America, the same approach used on recent flights.

September 22 is SpaceX’s own target, not a locked date. Starship’s schedule has slipped before over hardware readiness and FAA sign off, and the company has said as much in its own mission notes. But the plan itself represents the clearest marker yet that Starship is moving from a suborbital test program into something meant to carry paying payloads and, eventually, people.

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Elon Musk gives his most telling Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation yet

Elon Musk hinted a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be coming, and Wall Street is taking notice.

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Elon Musk gave his clearest signal yet that Tesla and SpaceX could eventually combine, telling the All-In Summit in Los Angeles that the two companies’ deepening collaboration makes the question worth asking. Sawyer Merritt first surfaced the highlight on X Tuesday.

Asked directly why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate given how closely they already work together, Musk told hosts at the summit: “Great question there. With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas.” SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, who joined Musk on stage, added that SpaceX personnel have already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps, saying the businesses are integrating “faster than I thought,” though “not fully integrated yet,”

The comments landed on top of merger speculation that has been building on Wall Street for months. JPMorgan has called a tie-up “strategically coherent on paper,” pointing to overlapping ambitions in AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space. Jefferies went further, estimating Musk could retain roughly 55.3 percent voting control in a deal structured without a premium, a scenario that would still leave room for Tesla shareholders to come out ahead. On Kalshi, traders now put the odds of a merger before 2028 at 66 percent.

Tesla’s stake in SpaceX, still under one percent, traces back to its earlier investment in xAI, which converted to SpaceX equity after SpaceX absorbed the AI company. The two are also jointly building Terafab, a chip facility in Austin meant to serve both Tesla’s AI computing needs and SpaceX’s satellite ambitions. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has stood by a 2027 merger timeline for months, and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest recently floated a similar case, an idea Musk pushed back on directly at the time.

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

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The timing adds another layer. Tesla has scheduled an October 1 unveiling for its next generation Roadster at a venue near SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas test site, using the phrase “Go for launch” in its promotional material. Both stocks dipped roughly 2 percent Monday before recovering slightly in premarket trading Tuesday, with SpaceX shares up about 0.4 percent and Tesla essentially flat.

Musk stopped short of confirming anything is in motion. But unlike his past denials of a corporate restructuring, this response didn’t rule one out, and it came with Shotwell sitting next to him describing an integration that’s already underway.

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Tesla Roadster unveiling is getting hyped up by Elon Musk

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tesla roadster
Credit: Petersen Auto Museum

The Tesla Roadster unveiling is getting hyped up by the company’s CEO Elon Musk, who has been a big reason the product has such high expectations due to delayed timelines and a constant need to make it even more insane than before.

Tesla announced on September 12 that it would officially unveil the Roadster in Waco, Texas, on October 1, ending years of patience for fans and reservation holders who have waited for the all-electric supercar to enter production since 2017.

Musk has said that this event will be well worth the wait on several occasions, and last year on the Joe Rogan Experience, he said that there should be a closing chapter to supercars- the end of cars that aren’t focused on safety.

He said:

“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one. I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”

Musk’s teases have continued, and now that the event is roughly two weeks away, it seems like Roadster is finally going to show up and blow some minds:

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Tesla has definitely dragged out the development of the Roadster, but there is a good reason for it.

Tesla has been working on many other projects, most notably self-driving efforts to increase passenger safety, and those simply took priority over the Roadster, a low-volume, high-performance sports car that has a lightning-fast acceleration rate of 0-60 MPH in just 1.1 seconds, could potentially fly, and contributes very little to the company’s mission.

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However, many people have the Roadster on pre-order through the referral program or with their own money, and it is time that Tesla delivers on that.

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