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Tesla bears ponder China dam collapse to ‘take out’ Giga Shanghai — but there’s a catch
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) may be carrying a lot of momentum this week as it heads towards what could very well be its most important second quarter earnings report to date, but the company still attracts a notable number of passionate critics. Among these critics is the TSLAQ group, which includes short sellers who are looking to make a profit if TSLA stock were to dive. TSLAQ has had its own fair share of interesting wishes for Tesla, its customers, and its facilities, but a recent post about Giga Shanghai may have just taken the cake.
China is currently experiencing one of its worst flood seasons, and the Three Gorges Dam, located in Central China’s Hubei Province and one of the world’s largest hydropower projects, is feeling the pressure. According to a report from The Global Times, the facility has been handling the worst of the ongoing floods so far. However, the dam is not completely out of danger yet. David Shankman, a geographer with the University of Alabama who studies Chinese floods, noted in a statement to Reuters that the facility may not be able to fully handle this year’s record floodwaters.
Under such a situation, Tesla bear Peter DeCaprio, a partner at Boston, MA based Flow Point Partners, LLC, decided to air his thoughts on the matter. The critic suggested that if the dam were to collapse, it could “take out” Gigafactory Shanghai. This scenario would be a catastrophe for Tesla if it were to happen, of course, especially considering that the China based plant is currently ramping its production of the Model 3 sedan.
Unfortunately for the TSLAQ member, a scenario where the Three Gorges Dam would adversely affect Tesla’s electric vehicle plant is unlikely to happen. This is because the river that the dam is handling exits a delta north of Shanghai, and Tesla’s Gigafactory happens to be south of the city. That’s a long way away from the river itself — about 1,000 km in fact. Callous wishes to people who would be affected by such a catastrophe aside, it appears that the Tesla bear was a bit off on his geography.
Tesla bears have been behind some interesting suggestions about how to deal with the electric car maker’s facilities in the past. During the Black Lives Matter protests back in May, for example, TSLAQ members suggested that Tesla Superchargers should be trashed since they were just “parking spaces for rich people.” The tweet may just be an ill mannered joke, of course, but it does not negate the fact that such suggestion may end up being harmful if someone were to take them seriously.
And some do take these suggestions seriously. Back in April 2019, TSLAQ members were deliberating about how someone could deliberately crash a Model 3 that was then testing the electric car maker’s FSD suite for its demo on Autonomy Day. Sure enough, a Tesla bear who had a history of photographing Tesla’s Fremont Factory took it upon himself to disrupt Tesla’s FSD tests. At one point, the Tesla staff in the Model 3 test car felt so threatened by the TSLAQ member’s driving maneuvers that the incident ended up being reported to the police.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
