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Tesla Cybertruck unveiled in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Arash Malek) Tesla Cybertruck unveiled in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Arash Malek)

Investor's Corner

Tesla Q4 and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call: Product Roadmap Updates, Wall Street Estimates

Tesla Cybertruck unveiled in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Arash Malek)

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will report its Earnings for Q4 2021 and the 2021 Fiscal Year later today at 5:30 PM EST, 4:30 PM CST via a webcast on the Tesla Investor Relations website. Tesla investors can expect CEO Elon Musk on the call today, which will take place from the company’s headquarters in Austin, Texas. Here’s what to expect from the Q4 and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call.

Wall Street Estimates

Consensus estimates place earnings of about $2.33 per share from sales of $17.1 billion in Q4 2021. Tesla absolutely demolished delivery estimates for Q4 by about 13%, so these estimates have steadily climbed, according to Barron’s. Tesla delivered 308,600 cars in the final quarter, while Wall Street projected 270,000 units.

Previously, the Q4 EPS was $1.94 in December. Then the delivery figures, which were well above consensus estimates, were released.

The Street reports that EPS estimates are at $2.35 and revenues at $16.65 billion.

What We Expect to Hear

CEO Elon Musk has already stated that an update to Tesla’s product roadmap could be discussed. While many are expecting updates to the midsize $25K model, we expect to hear more about the development and progress of Tesla’s two Gigafactories that have yet to gain final approval in their respective jurisdictions. Musk should be able to shed more light on the progress of Gigafactory Texas, which has approval in some of its sections, but not all. Gigafactory Berlin is still working its way through the German approval process, which has been anything but easy since Tesla announced the plant.

Top 10 questions Tesla investors want answered in the Q4 2021 earnings call

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Additionally, updates to the Cybertruck and Roadster programs should be detailed by the CEO. The Cybertruck was recently the subject of an exclusive article from Reuters, which claimed that production would be delayed until 2023. After Tesla delayed Cybertruck production by a full year in 2021, pushing projected manufacturing times back to 2022, the massive population of reservation holders for the all-electric pickup should be listening intently for an update on when production could begin. The Roadster, which has been delayed on several occasions, is also due for some type of concrete update. Musk hinted toward Roadster prototypes hitting the roads in late Summer 2021, but this never happened. He has also hinted toward the production of the Roadster, which could hover, this year. However, Tesla has its hands full with Cybertruck development, 4680 production, the Semi program, and other projects.

Finally, the 4680 program could use some progress updates. We expect to hear Musk and SVP of Powertrain Drew Baglino update the Tesla faithful on the production status of the 4680 cells. We are nearing 1.5 years since the cell’s announcement, which occurred in September 2020. It has been in development at the Kato Road facility and suppliers like Panasonic now have projected start dates for potential manufacturing.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk will give ‘every kid in America’ a SpaceX share in 2027

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”

SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.

It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.

Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.

Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:

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There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching

SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger

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SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.

The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures

All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.

If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s flying Roadster just revealed something bigger than the car

Analysts say the Roadster demo puts a Tesla and SpaceX merger back on the table.

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Tesla’s new Roadster, upside down and trailing cold gas thruster smoke, flips over a lineup of Tesla vehicles at the Roadster unveiling near Waco, Texas on October 15, 2026. (Image: Tesla)
Tesla’s new Roadster, upside down and trailing cold gas thruster smoke, flips over a lineup of Tesla vehicles at the Roadster unveiling near Waco, Texas on October 15, 2026. (Image: Tesla)

The Roadster unveiling near Waco ended Thursday night, and by Friday morning much of the investor reaction had less to do with the car than with who owns the rocket technology inside it.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the event “puts the Tesla/SpaceX relationship on the table in a tangible way,” pointing to the propulsion, pressure vessel and control hardware sitting on a Tesla product. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management called the demo “a ridiculous display of engineering” with “no commercial value” beyond embarrassing traditional automakers, though he said it showed Musk wants the two companies together.

The more specific forecast came a day earlier from Barclays. Analyst Dan Levy told clients a deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must happen by December 6, and that an announcement in late October or early November could make shareholder approval harder. Barclays expects SpaceX to be the buyer in an all stock deal, with Tesla holders receiving SpaceX shares at a premium, based on market values of roughly $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla. If nothing lands around the meeting, the bank still sees an announcement within 6 to 12 months.

The Roadster demo just added more weight to merger speculations. Tesla’s demo used cold gas thrusters and pressure tanks of the kind SpaceX uses on Falcon 9, and Musk described the car as a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX engineers, as we mentioned in our breakdown of the three Roadster configurations.


Musk has not publicly addressed a deal since the event, as far as we have seen. His most direct answer remains the one he gave at the All In Summit, when he said that with so much collaboration, “who can imagine what action one might take” without ruling anything out. Ives has held to a 2027 timeline since his March note, and Musk pushed back on the China piece of the speculation when ARK floated a year end announcement in August.

The next test is Tesla’s third quarter earnings call on October 21. However, we recall in July that Musk told analysts, “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a clear answer wouldn’t be expected.

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