Volkswagen faces mounting pressure to keep up with Tesla and Chinese automakers in the transition to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and its success in doing so could have major implications.
During the pandemic, Volkswagen fell behind in the Chinese auto market as companies like BYD, Nio, and Tesla took over, with the competition nearly doubling the market’s EV and hybrid offerings (via Bloomberg). Volkswagen’s global sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) haven’t managed to accelerate as fast as rivals Tesla or BYD, and the threat of growing EV startups also looms.
In the second quarter alone, Tesla delivered 466,140 as the world’s top BEV seller, followed by BYD with roughly 328,600 units sold, according to BloombergNEF. Volkswagen had just around 145,000 sales.
Credit: Bloomberg
Now, as the presence of Chinese automakers and Tesla grows in Europe, Volkswagen is being tested by fierce competition, and the automaker risks severe consequences to the German economy, which is Europe’s largest economy. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock highlighted the urgency of the situation at the Münich Car Show last week.
“The auto industry is faced with the question of whether and how we will be a global leader in the future,” Baerbock said at the event. “For our nation, where the auto industry accounts for a large share of value creation, this is not just an economic issue, but also a question of security.”
Tesla’s upcoming release of the highly anticipated Cybertruck and its recently refreshed Model 3 Highland are set to increase pressures put on Volkswagen to make appealing BEVs, not to mention the U.S. automaker’s lineup-wide price cuts made throughout this year.
Meanwhile, the global EV market is growing rapidly, and BloombergNEF data predicts that BEV sales will nearly rival gas car sales in the global market by 2030, surpassing them altogether by 2031.
Credit: Bloomberg
Volkswagen hasn’t exactly had a smooth introduction to BEVs. In 2015, the company admitted to cheating on emissions standards through the use of its “clean diesel” products, and it later paid out over $9.5 billion in settlement money to vehicle owners. Today, the automaker still hasn’t rebounded to pre-pandemic production levels across vehicle segments in Germany.
“Our international competition is not sitting idle,” said Hildegard Müller, the auto lobby German Association for the Automotive Industry (VDA) leader. “Our companies are mainly generating their profits abroad, helping to keep jobs in Germany. But the pressure is rising because of weak economic growth and conditions that are no longer internationally competitive.”
Credit: Bloomberg
During the same period of time, Tesla has expanded significantly with the addition of new production facilities in Austin, Texas, within the U.S., and overseas in Shanghai, China and outside of Berlin, Germany. Earlier this year, Tesla also announced plans to debut an upcoming factory in Mexico.
In the last few years, Volkswagen has also seen a shake-up of executive power, with CEO Oliver Blume taking over for former CEO Herbert Diess last fall. Since taking over and retaining his title as head of Porsche, Blume has managed new partnerships and hopes to fix issues at Cariad, the automaker’s in-house software developer.
Earlier this week, a German publication reported that Volkswagen’s BEV plant in Zwickau, Germany would cut as many as 2,500 jobs, though the automaker hasn’t responded to the reports. The Zwickau facility has been exclusively producing BEVs since last January, and it produced a total of 218,000 units last year.
The German automaker also has plans to build a $2 billion BEV factory in South Carolina, which is expected to begin production in 2026. The plant will bring back the Volkswagen Scout as a BEV brand, along with other vehicles in the SUV and pickup segments.
Volkswagen’s Scout to build $40K electric SUV in South Carolina
What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send your tips to us at tips@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck earns IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award
To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
The Tesla Cybertruck has achieved the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s (IIHS) highest honor, earning a Top Safety Pick+ rating for 2025 models built after April 2025.
The full-size electric pickup truck’s safety rating is partly due to the vehicle’s strong performance in updated crash tests, superior front crash prevention, and effective headlights, among other factors. To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
Cybertruck’s IIHS rating
As per the IIHS, beginning with 2025 Cybertruck models built after April 2025, changes were made to the front underbody structure and footwell to improve occupant safety in driver-side and passenger-side small overlap front crashes. The moderate overlap front test earned a good rating, and the updated side impact test also received stellar marks.
The Cybertruck’s front crash prevention earned a good rating in pedestrian scenarios, with the standard Collision Avoidance Assist avoiding collisions in day and night tests across child, adult crossing, and parallel paths. Headlights with high-beam assist compensated for limitations, contributing to the top award.
Safest and most autonomous pickup
The Cybertruck is one of only two full-size pickups to receive the IIHS’ Top Safety Pick + rating. It is also the only one equipped with advanced self-driving features via Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system. Thanks to FSD, the Cybertruck can navigate inner city streets and highways on its own with minimal supervision, adding a layer of safety beyond passive crash protection.
Community reactions poured in, with users praising the vehicle’s safety rating amidst skepticism from critics. Tesla itself highlighted this by starting its X post with a short clip of a Cybertruck critic who predicted that the vehicle will likely not pass safety tests. The only question now is, of course, if the vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating from the IIHS will help the Cybertruck improve its sales.
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
