Investor's Corner
Elon Musk makes a rare appearance on SolarCity’s Q2 conference call
SolarCity reported its Q2 quarterly results on Tuesday August 9, 2016, but unlike calls from the past where CEO Lyndon Rive’s provides a financial outlook for the nation’s largest full-service solar provider, Tesla CEO and SolarCity Chairman Elon Musk took stage to discuss future plans for the company. This marks a rare occasion for Musk and arrives at a time when discussions for the impending merger between Tesla and SolarCity is the hot topic among shareholders and analysts.
SolarCity provided shareholders with a Q2 2016 Shareholder Letter and accompanying Slide Presentation. While there might be little interest in the earnings report for Tesla owners and fans, quite a few interesting tidbits were provided during the afternoon SolarCity Analysts conference call by Musk.
Tesla Acquisition
Philip Lee-Wei Shen of ROTH Capital Partners asked why “the final deal and offer price was actually lower than the original price.”
Elon responded that “this is a negotiation of the independent board members. I actually wasn’t part of – and part of it was simply what they came up after, I think, a quite exhaustive discussion that lasted a week or two. So I’ve not inquired about the details and I’m not privy to the details, but it was ultimately what they concluded was fair between the independent board members of SolarCity and the board members of Tesla. Obviously, this is now up to the shareholder votes, independent shareholder votes where, I would say, I’m recusing myself. I’m not legally obligated to recuse myself, I’m just doing so, because I think it’s morally the right thing to do and so is Lyndon and Pete and JB Straubel.”
A new Product: Solar Roof
SolarCity is going to enter the “solar roof” market.
“We’re going to be making a pretty interesting product and I’m excited to kind of reveal to you all at some point, but it is not just your typical module, it is both very efficient and it looks really, really good,” said Peter Rive (CTO).
Elon elaborated that “It’s a solar roof as opposed to a module on a roof. I think, this is really a fundamental part of achieving a differentiated product strategy – it’s not a beautiful roof, that it is a solar roof, it’s not a thing on a roof, it is the roof. That’s – which is quite a difficult engineering challenge, and not something that is available really anywhere else that is at all good. I think this will be something that’s quite a standout. So one of the things I’m really very excited about the future.”
“It’s just addressing a really big market segment, so just in the U.S., there is 5 million new roofs installed every year,” said Lyndon Rive (CEO).
“The interesting thing about this is that it actually doesn’t cannibalize the existing product of putting solar on roof, because essentially if your roof is nearing end-of-life, you definitely don’t want to put solar panels on it, because you’re going to have to replace the roof,” said Elon Musk (Chairman). “So, there is a huge market segment that is currently inaccessible to SolarCity, because people know they’re going to have to replace their roof, you don’t want to put solar panels on top of a roof you’re going to replace. However, if you are close – if your roof is nearing end-of-life, well, you’ve got to get a new roof anyway, there’s 5 million new roofs a year just in the U.S. And so, why not have a solar roof that’s better in many others ways as well. We don’t want to show all of our cards right now, but I think people are going to be really excited about what they see.”
Notice that roof solar is a business where there are players already: Luma Resources, CertainTeed and Integrated Solar Technology, in particular and one that DOW Chemical just exited.
The solar roof product will be manufactured in Buffalo, NY. Elon added that “it’s really important to manufacturing in-house because its panels control the aesthetics and ideally really design – it’s kind of like making a custom car, like when somebody orders a car from Tesla, they’ll pick a wide array of options, that car will be custom made to their preferences, and you really want the roof custom-made to the individual customer as a kit and then sent to, that will be, the delivery team to get installed.”
Home Energy Management
Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer inquired “how long is it going to be before the combined entity [Tesla Motors + SolarCity] introduces a home energy management system or some sort of robust energy efficiency offering?”
To which Elon joked that “solar and battery go together like peanut butter and jelly. You obviously need the battery, particularly as you get to scale and you want to have solar be a bigger and bigger percentage of the grid. If you don’t have the batteries there to balance the grid and buffer the power, you really can’t go beyond a certain percentage of solar in a particular neighborhood. Maybe you can go up to about 20% solar, but more than that, it starts to unbalance the grid and you need to buffer it, because the energy generation is low at dawn and dusk, it’s high in middle of the day, and it’s at zero during at night. So you got to smooth that out.”
Elon reiterated the usual “sustainable energy” mantra he has been preaching for a decade: “if you like sort of fast forward to where do we want the world eventually to be is want the world to have a sustainable energy generation, a sustainable energy consumption, so that it really requires the three critical ingredients for that, there is the solar panels, the stationary batteries, and electric vehicles.”
Who is going to Win? Rooftop or centralized generation?
“You’ll have millions of these batteries, you’ve got to manage that and integrate it with the utility,” said Elon. “I do want to emphasize, there’s still a very important role for utilities here, sometimes people think that this is an either/or thing, it’s like either rooftops are going to win or centralized generation is going to win and actually both are going to win, because the electricity usage is going to increase dramatically as we transition away from burning old dinosaurs to electric cars, and then to electric transport, we would see roughly a doubling of electricity consumption as all transport moves to electric. And then, there is a tripling of electricity usage if you take all heating and make that electric as well, because obviously most heating is from oil and natural gas particularly.”
Combining battery and rooftop solar
Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital Management inquired what was the rationale behind the acquisition [of SolarCity by Tesla] when “combining a battery and a rooftop solar company didn’t make a ton of sense because when you have a rooftop solar company with net metering, the grid acts as, effectively, a battery, ruling out the need for a battery technology.”
“Where we see net metering evolving over the next few years, I think this is a really important part of how storage is a combination with the solar,” answered Peter Rive (CTO). “A case that I’d like everybody to review is what just recently happened in New York. This is a collaboration of the local utilities and the solar industry. And the collaboration is net metering for the next three years and then a phasing to more of a grid services model, where you combine solar, storage, smart inverters and provide all these additional grid services, and you phase that in and then essentially you phase-out net metering into that grid services model.”
Peter concluded that “we see that probably happening as a standard policy and we’re going to promote that across all the different states. But you – we have to get to a point where it is the grid services, so that, actually it recognizes the value that solar and storage can provide you to grid.”
I think Peter Rive indeed sees the writing on the wall for “net metering” as being phased out over time. Net metering has disappeared already from states like Nevada, and while it has been retained in California, at least until 2019, all local utilities are switching gradually to TOD (Time-of-Day) billing (the “grid services” model Peter references above), where a “smart battery storage” product that provides “time-shifting” will solve the solar basic dilemma: while solar production peaks during midday, energy consumption is highest in the morning and evening. With storage, you can save the energy you produce for when you need it most, and at the same time you limit the output to the grid, a benefit to the local utility.
Source: Enphase Energy
Investor's Corner
Tesla and SpaceX get latest synopsis from Wall Street legend Ron Baron
In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.
Legendary investor Ron Baron says he will continue buying stock of both Tesla and SpaceX, as he continues his support behind CEO Elon Musk, who he says is a special person and “brilliant.”
In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.
With assets under management approaching $55–56 billion, Baron detailed his firm’s substantial holdings, outlined plans for the anticipated SpaceX IPO, and painted an exceptionally optimistic picture for both Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX, framing them as generational opportunities that will reshape industries and deliver extraordinary long-term returns.
Baron Capital’s position in SpaceX has grown dramatically since the firm began investing around 2017. What started as roughly $1.7 billion has ballooned to more than $15 billion, making it the firm’s largest holding.
Tesla ranks second, valued at approximately $5 billion in the portfolio. Together with stakes in xAI and related Musk-led ventures, these investments account for roughly one-third of Baron Capital’s $60 billion in lifetime profits since 1992. Baron emphasized that the growth stems from Musk’s singular ability to execute ambitious visions—from reusable rockets to global satellite internet and beyond.
The centerpiece of the discussion was SpaceX’s expected initial public offering, targeted for mid-2026 following a confidential S-1 filing. Baron announced plans to purchase an additional $1 billion in shares at the IPO.
Ron Baron said today that he plans on buying an additional $1 billion of SpaceX stock during the upcoming IPO:
“At the IPO price, I’ve got an order for $1 billion. I want to buy more stock at the IPO. I don’t know if we’re going to get filled, but we’re going to try. I believe… pic.twitter.com/KOv1HvYcZ0
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 12, 2026
He described the company’s trajectory in sweeping terms: “This is going to become the largest company on the planet.”
He highlighted Starlink’s expansion of high-speed internet to every corner of the globe, the revolutionary economics of reusable rockets, and Starship’s potential to enable massive space-based data centers and interplanetary infrastructure.
Baron sees SpaceX not merely as a rocket company but as a platform poised for exponential scaling once it goes public, with post-IPO appreciation potentially reaching 10- to 20- or even 30-times current levels over the next decade or more.
On Tesla, Baron struck an equally enthusiastic note, declaring that “now is Tesla’s moment.” He projected the stock could reach $2,000 to $2,500 per share within 10 years—implying a market capitalization near $8.3 trillion and roughly 5–6 times upside from recent levels. While Tesla remains a major holding, Baron’s optimism centers on its evolution beyond electric vehicles into an AI, robotics, autonomous-driving, and energy platform.
He pointed to robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Optimus humanoid robots, energy storage, and the vast real-world data advantage from Tesla’s global fleet as catalysts that will fundamentally alter the company’s revenue model and valuation multiples. Baron views these developments as transformative, shifting Tesla from a traditional automaker to a high-margin technology and infrastructure powerhouse.
Throughout the interview, Baron’s admiration for Musk was unmistakable. He has likened the entrepreneur to a modern Leonardo da Vinci for his artistic, multidisciplinary approach to solving humanity’s biggest challenges.
Baron’s personal commitment mirrors this confidence: he has repeatedly stated he does not expect to sell a single share of his own Tesla or SpaceX holdings in his lifetime, positioning himself as the “last one out” after his clients. This stance underscores a philosophy of patient, long-term ownership rather than short-term trading.
Baron’s comments arrive at a time of heightened anticipation around SpaceX’s public debut, which could rank among the largest IPOs in history and potentially value the company at $1.5–2 trillion or more at listing.
For investors, his message is clear: the Musk ecosystem—spanning electric vehicles, autonomy, robotics, satellite communications, and space exploration—represents one of the most compelling secular growth stories of the era. While short-term volatility in tech and EV stocks may persist, Baron sees these as buying opportunities for those who share his multi-decade horizon.
In summarizing his outlook, Baron reinforced that the combination of technological breakthroughs, massive addressable markets, and Musk’s leadership creates asymmetric upside that few other investments can match.
For Baron Capital’s clients and long-term Tesla and SpaceX shareholders alike, the investor’s latest CNBC remarks serve as both validation and a call to remain patient through the inevitable ups and downs. As Baron sees it, the best days for both companies—and the returns they can deliver—are still ahead.
Elon Musk
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla rescheduled its final Model S farewell to May 20 after Musk joined Trump in China.
Tesla has rescheduled its Model S and Model X Signature Edition delivery event to Wednesday, May 20, 2026, after abruptly calling off the original May 12 celebration. The event will take place at Tesla’s factory at 45500 Fremont Boulevard in Fremont, California, the same location where the Model S first rolled off the line in 2012. Invitees received a follow-up email asking them to reconfirm attendance and download a new QR code ticket, with Tesla noting that all travel and accommodation expenses remain the buyer’s responsibility.
The reason behind the original cancellation came into focus the same day it was announced. President Trump invited Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Meta to join his trip to China this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The agenda covers trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war, following weeks of escalating friction between Washington and Beijing over AI technology, sanctions, and rare earth exports. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I am very much looking forward to my trip to China, an amazing Country, with a Leader, President Xi, respected by all.”
Tesla launches 200mph Model S “Gold” Signature in invite-only purchase
The vehicles at the center of all this are the last Model S and Model X units Tesla will ever build. Priced at $159,420 each, the 250 Model S and 100 Model X Signature Edition units come finished in Garnet Red with a one-year no-resale agreement, giving Tesla right of first refusal if the owner decides to sell. As Teslarati reported, the Model S defined Tesla’s early identity as a serious luxury automaker, and the Fremont factory line that built it is now being converted to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots.
Musk’s inclusion in the China delegation drew attention given his very public relationship with Trump, and the invitation signals the two have moved past and past grievances. Trump originally brought Musk on to lead the Department of Government Efficiency following his inauguration, and despite a sharp public dispute in mid-2025, the two have appeared together repeatedly in recent months. A seat on the China trip, the most diplomatically consequential visit of Trump’s current term, puts Musk back at the table on U.S. economic policy at a moment when Tesla’s China revenue remains one of the company’s most important financial pillars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.
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