Installation of large-scale energy storage systems is expected to continue increasing in the U.S. throughout 2024, as championed by only a handful of states thus far.
According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shared on Tuesday, U.S. energy storage system deployment is expected to nearly double in 2024, with battery capacity forecasted to grow by 89 percent. As of November 2023, two U.S. states have installed substantially more energy storage systems than others, making up the vast majority of battery capacity available.
The data shows that California leads energy storage availability by a wide margin, with just over 7.3 GW (7,302 MW) of battery capacity installed. Texas follows in second with nearly 3.2 GW (3,167 MW) installed, while Arizona, Florida, and Massachusetts are next in the lineup.
You can see the full top 10 list for U.S. states with the most battery capacity installed below, courtesy of the EIA.
Credit: Energy Information Administration
The data takes into account planned storage system projects for the next two years, and the agency says developers are aiming to expand U.S. storage capacity by 30 GW by the end of 2024. As the EIA also notes, U.S. battery storage capacity has been increasing since 2021, and if the aforementioned goal is achieved, the country will have more energy storage than petroleum liquids, geothermal, wood and wood waste, or landfill gas by the end of this year.
There are over 300 utility-scale battery storage projects planned to be brought online by 2025, with roughly half of them being in Texas. Currently, the largest operating battery energy storage system (BESS) is a project operated by Vistra in Moss Landing, California, which has 750 MW of capacity and is located not far from Tesla’s 182.5 MW Megapack site in the same city.
Four out of five of the largest BESS installations set to take place in 2024 or 2025 are in Texas, as listed below:
- Lunis Creek BESS SLF (Texas, 621 MW)
- Clear Fork Creek BESS SLF (Texas, 600 MW)
- Hecate Energy Ramsey Storage (Texas, 500 MW)
- Bellefield Solar and Energy Storage Farm (California, 500 MW)
- Dogwood Creek Solar and BESS (Texas, 443 MW)
As for the recent increases in storage capacity, the agency says that quickly increasing wind and solar generation fleets in California and Texas have increased the need for growth in the battery storage sector. With energy storage projects, utility operators are able to store power during times of low electricity demand and then deploy stored energy during times of peak demand.
Credit: Energy Information Administration
The news comes just a few days after Tesla Megapacks went live on the island of Oahu in Hawaii, enabling a 185 MW project that has helped the island move away from the use of coal. The project isn’t represented in the EIA’s dataset, since that data only accounts for installations through last November.
In addition to its grid-scale Megapacks, Tesla also offers smaller, residential-level Powerpacks to create what it calls Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), essentially forming giant, distributed batteries that customers can use to sell energy back to the grid in times of peak demand. Currently, Tesla has pilots for these programs in states including California, Texas and Massachusetts, along with the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
Tesla Powerwall owner earns $574 by participating in California’s VPP program
What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send your tips to us at tips@teslarati.com.
News
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
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Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
