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SpaceX adds mystery Falcon 9 launch to packed October manifest

FCC paperwork suggests that the SpaceX has added a mystery rocket launch to its packed October manifest. (Richard Angle)

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SpaceX FCC paperwork has revealed the addition of an unidentified Falcon 9 launch to the company’s packed October manifest, ranging from several Starlink missions to Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut launch.

Under the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), companies must submit an application for permission to communicate with their rocket for every single launch. While a major annoyance for those companies and an undeniably clunky process, those applications for “special temporary authority” (STAs) to communicate are one of the only ways members of the public can independently monitor and forecast US launch activities. For SpaceX, the company typically applies for multiple STAs for every single launch, including specific applications for booster launches, landings, and preflight ground tests.

The separate STAs can be connected with a “Mission Number” SpaceX associates each one with, while coordinates included to designate the area of landing communications (i.e. the drone ship recovery zone) often reveals a mission’s trajectory. Combined, STAs can often be used to identify the exact mission (i.e. a Starlink launch, Crew Dragon, etc.). STAs for SpaceX’s upcoming Crew Dragon Crew-1 and Cargo Dragon CRS-21 missions, as well as several Starlink launches, have already been identified.

FCC paperwork suggests that the SpaceX has added a mystery rocket launch to its packed October manifest. (SpaceX/Richard Angle)

Thanks to bad weather and a flurry of ULA delays, SpaceX’s October manifest is currently packed with three Starlink missions, a GPS III satellite launch for the US military, and Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut mission to the International Space Station (ISS). Barring a miracle, ULA’s latest Delta IV Heavy launch delay has pushed SpaceX’s GPS III SV04 mission to October 1st.

GPS III Space Vehicle 04 (SV04) is encapsulated inside Falcon 9’s payload fairing. (SpaceX)

Starlink-12 – SpaceX’s 11th Starlink mission this year and 13th overall – is tentatively set to follow GPS III SV04 at 9:17 am EDT (13:17 UTC) on October 1st. Starlink-13 and Starlink-14 are then scheduled to launch no earlier than mid-to-late-October. Finally, SpaceX and NASA are in the final stages of preparing for Crew Dragon’s Crew-1 mission – the spacecraft’s first operational delivery of astronauts to the ISS – as soon as October 31st (Halloween).

A new Sirius XM radio satellite (SXM-7) could launch on a Falcon 9 rocket on November 6th. On the West Coast, SpaceX’s first California mission since June 2019 could launch on November 10th. SpaceX and NASA are also targeting the launch debut of an upgraded Cargo Dragon 2 resupply spacecraft on a mission known as CRS-21, scheduled to lift off NET November 15th. Last but assuredly not least, Turkey’s Turksat 5A communications satellite could launch as early as November 31st. No Starlink missions are currently scheduled in November but it’s safe to assume that there will be at least one or two. Altogether, SpaceX already has five launches scheduled in October and four set for November. While undeniably prolific, SpaceX has never launched more than three times in one month.

Falcon 9 B1059 completes an RTLS landing at LZ-1, August 30th. (SpaceX)

Now, on top of that swath of firm launches, mysterious “SpaceX Mission 1512” has joined the fray. Based on the FCC STA request, the mission is scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) October 3rd (with a six-month window) and will include a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) Falcon 9 booster landing. The RTLS landing in particular substantially constrains the mission and means – right off the bat – that it can’t be for Starlink, while also ruling out Cargo Dragon CRS-21 (an RTLS landing STA already exists) and Crew Dragon Crew-1 (drone ship landing). Simply put, an RTLS rules out every other launch on SpaceX’s 2020 manifest beyond a rideshare mission tentatively scheduled in December, and SpaceX almost never files for STAs months in advance.

That leaves some kind of unannounced, mystery mission. Only once in SpaceX’s history has the company conducted an unannounced launch – unsurprisingly for some unknown branch of the US military or espionage apparatus. Known as Zuma and still shrouded in secrecy, it followed an almost identical pattern, revealed only through FCC launch and landing communications requests and rumors in 2017 before a January 2018 launch. Although Northrop Grumman was thrown under the bus for a failed payload adapter that may or may not have doomed the satellite, no federal agency has taken credit for the mission – unspeakably odd as far as spaceflight goes.

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At the time, unofficial rumors published on Reddit implied that Zuma would only be the first of many similar missions. The claimed failure of a spring-like deployment mechanism and loss of spacecraft – believed to be worth one or several billion dollars – just hours after launch would have unsurprisingly thrown a wrench into those gears. Now, almost three years later and in the midst of an exceptionally busy period of several important launches, could SpaceX be preparing for Zuma-2?

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla talks Semi ramp, Optimus, Robotaxi rollout, FSD with Wall Street firm

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) recently talked about a variety of topics with Wall Street firm Piper Sandler, as the firm released a new note on Friday about their meeting with the company’s Investor Relations team.

According to the note from Piper Sandler, Tesla talked in detail about the Semi program, Optimus, and its potential valuation given its capabilities, the rollout of Robotaxi in Austin, and Full Self-Driving progress in the United States.

Tesla Semi Ramp

The Tesla Semi is set to enter mass production in 2026 at a dedicated factory near the company’s Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada.

The Semi has already been in pilot program testing, as Tesla has partnered with a few companies, like Frito-Lay and PepsiCo., to perform regional logistics. It has been met with excellent reviews from drivers, and it has helped give Tesla a good idea of what to expect when it makes its way to more companies in the coming years.

Piper Sandler said that it is evident Tesla is preparing for a “major ramp,” but it is keeping its expectations low:

“We’ve never expected much from this product, but we’d love to be proven wrong (Tesla is clearly prepping for a major ramp).”

Tesla Optimus and its value internally and externally

Optimus has been working in Tesla factories for some time, but its expectations as a product offering outside of the company internally have major implications.

Its role within Tesla factories, for now, is relatively low, but Optimus is still doing things to assist. By this time next year, Piper Sandler said Optimus should have bigger responsibilities:

“By this time in 2026, Optimus should be moving/staging parts within Tesla’s facilities.”

Outside of Tesla, Optimus could be a major beneficiary for companies as it could be a more affordable way to handle tedious tasks and manual labor. The firm believes that if Optimus can work 18-hour shifts, a cost of $100,000 per unit “would be justified.”

Tesla Robotaxi Expansion

The big focus of the firm with Robotaxi was Tesla’s expansion of the geofence in Austin this week. It was substantial, bringing the Robotaxi’s total service area to around 170 square miles, up from the roughly 90 square miles that rival Waymo is offering in the city.

Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise

Tesla has doubled its geofence three times since its launch in late June, and it also revealed that its fleet of vehicles has expanded by 50 percent. It did not give a solid number of how many vehicles are operating in the fleet.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 launch

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is set to have a fresh version, v14, rolled out in either September or October, and there are some pretty high expectations for it.

CEO Elon Musk said:

“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less.”

There is also some expectation that v14 could be the public release of what Tesla is running in Austin for Robotaxi. The firm confirmed this in their note by stating it “should enable Tesla owners to use software that is on par with Robotaxis in Austin.”

The only real hold up would be regulator skepticism, but Tesla can alleviate this with strong data.

The firm maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $400 price target it holds on the stock.

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Tesla starts Full Self-Driving rollout to owners in Australia

“To have this car drive me around Brisbane for an hour, we’re talking in the city, motorway, spaghetti bowl of on-ramps, it handled it so well. It was mind-blowing.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has already started rolling out its Full Self-Driving suite to owners in Australia after officially launching the driver assistance suite in the country yesterday.

Earlier this week, Tesla seemed to be moving toward the launch of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Australia after numerous media members received early access to test its performance.

Tesla officially launched Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Australia yesterday. The company told media members who got early access to the suite that the rollout would begin with Hardware 4-equipped Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

Tesla launches Full Self-Driving in a new region

The release would be slow and gradual, with the process performed in stages.

The first stage of the rollout has already begun in Australia:

Tesla is reminding drivers in Australia who are using the suite for the first time that they must not become complacent while FSD is in operation. It is not fully autonomous and still requires the driver to remain attentive to road conditions and the vehicle’s surroundings.

Currently, the suite is only available to purchase outright, and it comes at a cost of $10,100. A subscription model is in the works, similar to the one in the United States, but Tesla has not yet announced its plans or pricing model for this.

Australia is the sixth country to receive Full Self-Driving (Supervised), or at least some version of it, as the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, and Puerto Rico all have access to the suite currently. In China, it is slightly different and is referred to as “City Autopilot” due to regulatory boundaries.

Early reviews of the suite have been very strong, as local media have also had the opportunity to try it, with one journalist saying, To have this car drive me around Brisbane for an hour, we’re talking in the city, motorway, spaghetti bowl of on-ramps, it handled it so well. It was mind-blowing.”

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Tesla expands crazy new lease deal for insane savings on used inventory

Tesla was able to work through the hurdles in three states, expanding the deal to New York, New Jersey, and Florida.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has expanded its new lease deal, offering people insane savings on used inventory.

Last week, we reported on Tesla offering crazy good lease deals on some of its used inventory, as people were able to grab monthly payments for as little as $225 per month with no money down.

There was only one catch: the deal was only available in California and Texas.

Tesla offers new deal on used inventory that you won’t want to pass up

However, Tesla has been working hard to get the lease deal expanded, and it finally has. Last night, Tesla’s VP of Finance, Sendil Palani, confirmed the deal had made it to three additional states.

Palani explained that the deal was only available in California and Texas because the leasing process requires working through regulatory hurdles in each state. He said it “involves a nontrivial amount of work,” which makes things more difficult to iron out.

Tesla was able to work through the hurdles in three states, expanding the deal to New York, New Jersey, and Florida. It is currently active in those states, Palani said:

Tesla is really making a concerted effort to push its inventory out the door, and many areas already are running low on both new and pre-owned inventory. It has cut prices on some new inventory, while offering these new lease deals on used vehicles that remain.

It is beneficial to the consumer for obvious reasons: cheaper payments and the ability to get a great deal on a car for no money down. Tesla is also getting rid of vehicles that were once thought to be intended for the Robotaxi fleet, but it appears these older hardware vehicles are no longer in the company’s plans for that purpose.

This is the first time Tesla has offered lease deals on used inventory, as it has only offered an outright purchase option in the past. In an effort to boost deliveries and rid itself of older cars, these lease deals are truly beneficial for both parties. It is only a wonder how long they will last.

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