News
Blue Origin launches first suborbital tourists after six years and 15 test flights
More than six years after New Shepard’s first test flight and nine years after a pad abort featuring a prototype of the rocket’s capsule, Blue Origin has launched its first crew of suborbital tourists.
Almost exclusively funded by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ stock sales over more than 21 years of operations, Blue Origin has been working towards New Shepard’s first crewed launch for approximately a decade. Aside from a pad abort test of the rocket’s relatively simple ‘crew capsule’ in October 2012, New Shepard – purported to be fully reusable – has performed 15 uncrewed test flights since April 2015. At least according to Blue Origin, of those 15 tests, 14 were fully successful and 11 crossed the 100 km (~62 mi) Karman Line – a largely arbitrary line drawn between Earth’s atmosphere and space.
Six years and three months after New Shepard’s first flight, the rocket lifted off on its 16th suborbital mission and inaugural crewed launch. Along for the ride were Jeff Bezos himself, brother Mark Bezos, hedgefund multimillionaire Joes Daemen’s son Oliver Daemen, and trailblazing pilot and aviator Mary “Wally” Funk.
While New Shepard NS-16 reached an apogee of 107 km (66 mi) and a maximum speed of 2233 mph (1 km/s / Mach 2.9), less than 13% of the way to orbit, the mission did mark a number of “spaceflight” firsts insofar as its passengers did technically spend between 70 and 150 seconds in “space.” Notably, NS-16 passengers Oliver Daemon and Wally Funk are now respectively the youngest and oldest people in history to reach space. While Blue Origin hasn’t disclosed the value of his second-place bid, Oliver Daemen was technically a paying customer, making New Shepard the first rocket in history to launch a paying passenger on its first crewed flight.
In June, Blue Origin held a tone-deaf auction that ultimately resulted in a mystery buyer winning the first ticket on New Shepard at a jaw-dropping cost of $28 million – just shy of the $30M Richard Garriott paid to ride a Soyuz rocket to space, spend almost two weeks in orbit, and scream back to Earth at Mach 25. Bizarrely, the company still hasn’t revealed the winner, at no point mentioned that there would be runners-up, inexplicably swapped the mystery winner for Oliver Daemen with “scheduling issues” as the comical excuse, and has yet to reveal what Daemen paid for his ticket. In general, Blue Origin still refuses to provide any information about the price of seats on New Shepard.
Meanwhile, although Blue Origin did provide invite-only access to some media outlets and offered numerous interview opportunities with the NS-16 crew, there have been virtually zero chances for reporters and journalists to ask real questions. Beyond New Shepard, which raises dozens of questions on its own, Blue Origin’s orbital New Glenn rocket is years behind schedule and apparent issues with the BE-4 engine meant to power both it and the United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) Vulcan has also significantly delayed the latter rocket’s launch debut.
For the last several years, Vulcan and New Glenn were both aiming for a launch debut sometime in 2020. Both targets eventually slipped to 2021 and as of 2021, Vulcan is now expected to launch no earlier than early 2022 and New Glenn’s debut has slipped to “late 2022” – likely meaning 2023.
On its own, New Shepard has had one of the most bizarre development paths of any rocket in history. Despite virtually unlimited resources from Bezos’ average sale of billions of Amazon stock each year and the fact that New Shepard is a fully reusable rocket that demonstrated the ability to fly twice in ~60 days in 2016, Blue Origin has only launched the rocket 15 times in the 75 months before NS-16. The company has never once implied that New Shepard suffered major issues during any of its test flights, save for NS-1’s failed booster recovery (though Blue has generally glossed over or ignored that lone failure).
Somewhat coincidentally, New Shepard’s first test flight occurred just a few weeks before SpaceX attempted the first major test of a partially integrated Crew Dragon prototype, resulting in a successful pad abort test in May 2015. Despite several significant, documented delays, less than four years later, Crew Dragon aced an uncrewed orbital launch to the ISS and back to Earth. 14 months after Demo-1, SpaceX became the first private company in history to launch astronauts to orbit. Less than six months after that historic launch and four months after Crew Dragon returned two NASA astronauts to Earth, SpaceX launched its first operational four-astronaut mission to the ISS.
In the same period that Blue Origin completed five uncrewed New Shepard test flights, SpaceX launched Crew Dragon’s Demo-1, In-Flight Abort, Demo-2, Crew-1, and Crew-2 missions, carrying six astronauts to orbit and back and delivering another four to the ISS (where they still are). Not only did SpaceX also launch five Crew Dragons, but April 2021’s Crew-2 mission marked the first time in history that astronauts launched on a flight-proven liquid rocket booster and a flight-proven space capsule, beating Blue Origin to the punch despite the far greater challenges and risks posed by orbital spaceflight.
Put simply, it’s disappointing but not exactly surprising that Blue Origin continues to go to great lengths to avoid having to answer questions that haven’t been obviously vetted or preselected.
Investor's Corner
Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Robotaxi and Optimus momentum
Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.
“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.
Still a Neutral rating
Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation.
“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.
Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.
News
Tesla Model Y on FSD saves couple after encountering King of edge cases
Experts have noted that if confirmed, this could be the world’s first recorded meteorite collision involving a Tesla.
A South Australian Tesla driver is thanking his Model Y’s Full Self-Driving system after a mysterious object, possibly a meteorite, slammed into his car’s windshield while it had FSD engaged.
The impact sent hot glass fragments flying through the cabin as the vehicle continued driving without human input through the darkness. Experts have noted that if confirmed, this could be the world’s first recorded meteorite collision involving a Tesla.
The Tesla owner was enjoying a quiet drive home when they hit the king of edge cases
Veterinarian Dr. Andrew Melville-Smith and his wife were traveling north on Augusta Highway on the night of October 19 when a sudden blast struck their newly delivered Model Y. At the time, it was clear, pitch black night, and Dr. Melville-Smith and his wife were just listening to a podcast while FSD was operating the vehicle, as noted in a Yahoo News report.
Suddenly, something hit the Tesla’s windshield. “Then there was, (what) I can only describe as a very, very violent explosion. The whole inside of the car was literally blasted with glass fragments. It was full of white smoke, and it smelled like the car was on fire,” Dr. Melville-Smith stated.
The vet stated that he and his wife were stunned for a good 10 seconds, and for a bit, he and his wife thought they had crashed. Images of the crash’s aftermath showed a massive crack on the Tesla’s windshield, which Dr. Melville-Smith noted was hot to the touch. The object that hit the Tesla’s windshield was so hot that part of the vehicle’s windshield was partly melted.
FSD kept driving despite the possible meteorite strike
Thankfully, the Tesla was operating with its FSD (Supervised) system engaged at the time. Thus, despite the vehicle being hit by what might be a literal meteorite, and despite Dr. Melville-Smith and his wife being stunned because of the impact, their Tesla just kept driving steadily.
“I thought we’d had an accident, but then I looked at the screen and went ‘Oh, we’re still driving. We were moving around, so it obviously thought we were paying attention, and it was happy to keep driving to Port Augusta. After we pulled over, we saw the big crater in the windscreen,” the vet said.
The South Australian Museum is now examining the case, with geologist Dr. Kieran Meaney stating the scorched glass and heat damage do suggest a potential meteorite strike. “The little detail that’s really selling it for me at the moment is that whatever it was that hit the windscreen seems to have been very hot,” Meaney explained. However, the object has yet to be recovered.
Check out a video of the remarkable edge case below.
News
“Foundation:” Elon Musk wants to send a record of Grokipedia to space
The idea sounds outlandish, though it is also something that is in character for the CEO.
Elon Musk has announced one of his latest initiatives, and it is every bit as sci-fi as it is surprisingly grounded. In a post on X, Musk stated that Grokipedia, xAI’s new open-source encyclopedia, will be etched into stable oxide and launched into space.
The idea sounds outlandish, though it is also something that is in character for the CEO.
Preserving human knowledge among the stars
Musk posted his plan following the launch of Grokipedia’s V0.1’s iteration. The CEO congratulated the xAI team for the online encyclopedia’s launch, though he also stated that the goal for Grokipedia is to create an open-source collection of knowledge. This would then be distributed to the cosmos.
“Nice work by the xAI team on Grokipedia! The goal here is to create an open source, comprehensive collection of all knowledge. Then place copies of that etched in a stable oxide in orbit, the Moon, and Mars to preserve it for the future. Foundation,” Musk wrote in his post.
While seemingly outlandish, this is not the first time that a record of human knowledge of sorts was sent out to space. In 1977, the Voyager Golden Record was launched aboard NASA’s Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft. The record contains sounds and images that ere aggregated to portray the diversity of the Earth’s culture. Of course, Musk’s plan with Grokipedia, is infinitely more ambitious.
Grokipedia and AI neutrality
Musk launched Grokipedia as an AI-driven alternative to Wikipedia, designed to eliminate the human biases that could affect conventional online knowledge platforms. The system is powered by xAI’s Grok, which scrape and summarize information from across the internet, offering balanced and nuanced coverage of topics ranging from science and technology to culture and politics.
Unlike Wikipedia’s human-edited format, Grokipedia would be able to evolve through machine learning, reading vastly more material than any editorial team could. Early testers, including Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger, praised its initial version as “very OK” and potentially more neutral than Wikipedia. Musk agreed, stating that even in its V0.1 form, Grokipedia is “already better than Wikipedia.”
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