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Tesla rivals Rivian and Lucid receive harsh prediction from Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s Tesla has survived through a tough, long, and treacherous road to profitability and electric vehicle dominance. Unfortunately for rivals Rivian and Lucid, Musk does not see the same bright light at the end of the tunnel, based on comments made on his social media platform X last night.
As both Rivian and Lucid reported earnings for Q4 2023 last night, Musk took to Twitter to discuss his impressions of both companies and how long they might last before things could come to a crashing halt.
In short, it does not look like an optimistic sentiment shared by Musk was in the plans. Both predictions seem to indicate eventual bankruptcy and potentially the end of operations, which would bring Tesla’s lead in the EV movement in the U.S. to a point of overwhelming dominance. Rivian and Lucid are two pure EV companies that continue to fight through tough economic times and challenging growth periods.
Rivian
Rivian and Tesla are somewhat complementary to one another, both contributing to the EV movement with a focus on expanding product lines, offering cheaper vehicles, and creating somewhat of a “brand,” specifically catering to those interested in supporting companies hellbent on bringing EVs to the forefront.
While the two have had a tumultuous past, including an employee poaching lawsuit, Tesla and Rivian are widely considered the two best EV companies in the United States, and there seems to be mutual respect there.
Rivian sets 2024 goals, including a 57,000 production target
However, Rivian is still navigating through tough times, ramping production and trying to race to profitability as fast as possible.
During its earnings call last night, it did indicate that it is still losing money on every car it builds, which is not uncommon in early operations. Musk believes, based on data, that Rivian would have roughly six quarters left before bankruptcy would have to be considered:
Current trajectory has them bankrupt in ~6 quarters. Maybe that trajectory will change, but so far it hasn’t. pic.twitter.com/tNNijQ3KwT
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 22, 2024
The problem with Rivian, according to Musk, is not their product.
“Their product design is not bad,” Musk said, “but the actual hard part of making a car company work is achieving volume production with positive cash flow.”
Lucid
Lucid and Tesla are a different story entirely.
Evident from comments made by Musk for several years about Lucid CEO/CTO Peter Rawlinson’s job title with the Model S program at Tesla, there is still hostility between the two.
Musk has said that Rawlinson left Tesla when things got truly difficult, and it seems he still holds a bit of a grudge because of it.
Lucid posts Q4 2023 results, posts conservative FY 2024 target
Rawlinson’s Lucid is still alive mostly due to a strong investor in the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund, or PIF, which is the reason the company built a production facility in the country. It also is building cars for certain government organizations in Saudi Arabia.
Musk was sure to point out that Lucid’s survival is purely because of the PIF’s involvement:
Their Saudi sugar daddy is the only thing keeping them alive
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 22, 2024
What if Rivian and Lucid actually do shut their doors?
While Tesla fans might see it as a way to dominate EV sales figures once again, and as a feather in their cap that the company they invested in survived, it would be bad to see both of these companies cease operations.
In reality, competition in the market is a positive. It pushes companies to innovate and creates product diversity, giving a wide variety of options for customers.
Additionally, the EV movement would take a huge blow if two major companies could not stay afloat. Rivian is the company with the better outlook because it is showing growth and progress in its EV efforts, but Lucid has heavy financial backers with essentially limitless money.
A Texas man has been arrested and charged with manslaughter after his Tesla crashed into a home last month, striking a woman inside and killing her. The driver, Michael Butler, claimed the vehicle was in self-driving mode, but information from Tesla shows that Butler overrode the system.
Butler was arrested on Wednesday and booked at the Harris County, Texas, jail. He remained in custody through Thursday and Friday; he did not enter a plea, and his next court hearing is scheduled for Monday.
Tesla finally clarifies fatal Texas crash, confirms driver manually overrode acceleration
There are a handful of new clues in the case that could clear Tesla of any wrongdoing, especially as the woman who was killed’s family, the Avilas, filed a wrongful death lawsuit against Tesla and Butler, seeking at least $1 million in damages.
Charging documents from the Harris County prosecutor now show that Butler, who was working DoorDash the evening of the accident, had been using Full Self-Driving mode without incident through the duration of multiple deliveries that evening.
In the moments leading up to the crash, while in FSD and approaching a left turn, Butler pressed the accelerator pedal, overriding FSD’s speed control, and continued to push it until it reached 100 percent. This caused rapid acceleration; the brake pedal was never pressed, and there is no data to show that Butler aimed to turn away from the curb or house.
The charging documents state:
“I noted that the brake pedal was never pressed in the final minute before the crash. I also did not see any data to indicate that the driver attempted to turn away from the curb that he eventually struck. Further, I observed that no mechanical error was detected or recorded by the vehicle before BUTLER and the Tesla struck the curb.”
Additionally, a forensic analysis of Butler’s phone showed that he searched Google around the time of the crash with queries questioning why FSD was “too timid,” “not aggressive enough,” and even searched, “FSD is not aggressive enough for city driving.”
The documents outlined this:
“Investigator Veal also informed me that he had received BUTLER’s cell phone from Deputy Amad and that HDAO digital forensics team had completed a data extraction and download of the phone. Multiple Google searches related to Tesla had been made from BUTLER’s phone in the months leading up the crash. I noted multiple searches in May of 2026 indicating an apparent frustration with Tesla’s FSD mode, including the following searches: “Tesla fsd not aggressive enough 2026 model,” “Tesla fsd not [sic) aggressive enough 2026,” “FSD is not aggressive enough for city driving,” and “tesla fsd too timid.”‘
Tesla had claimed just after the crash that its internal data showed Butler had overridden the system’s speed control and pressed the accelerator completely, causing the vehicle to travel at an excessive rate of speed. Eventually, the car slammed into Avila’s house, killing her.
Butler has now been formally charged with Manslaughter, a felony.
Tesla shocked with its quarterly delivery report yesterday by reporting it delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter of 2026, a 25 percent year-over-year jump that crushed Wall Street estimates of roughly 400,000–408,000 units. Production reached 451,758, with Model 3 and Model Y accounting for the vast majority.
The result ended two years of annual delivery declines and drew down inventory, signaling demand that outpaced earlier production.
Tesla bears had long warned that the expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit would hammer demand. Without the $7,500 incentive, they argued, American buyers would balk at higher effective prices, leading to a sharp slowdown.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
That narrative has not played out as predicted. While U.S. EV sales faced broader headwinds, Tesla’s global numbers held firm, underscoring the company’s ability to offset domestic pressure through other levers.
There are several plausible factors that explain Tesla’s strength during this quarter. Let’s take a look at them:
Rising Gas Prices
Rising gas prices provided a powerful tailwind, especially in the U.S.
Geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict pushed fuel costs higher earlier in the year, amplifying the lifetime savings of electric vehicles. Even as oil prices later moderated, the psychological and financial impact lingered, encouraging fleet operators and private buyers to accelerate EV purchases. European sales rebounded sharply, helping drive the quarter’s outperformance.
Full Self-Driving Adoption
Advances in Full Self-Driving (FSD) supervised software also appear to have boosted appeal. Tesla expanded FSD availability in select European markets and continued refining the system.
No complaints from me because I finally got to enjoy this drive on FSD; I usually like to manually drive down this mountain https://t.co/RBFniRPSR0 pic.twitter.com/XQ5sOpN1Yg
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
For tech-oriented buyers, the promise of future autonomy and enhanced driver-assistance features adds perceived value beyond the car itself. This differentiation helps Tesla stand out in a crowded market where competitors focus primarily on hardware and basic range.
Pricing Strategy, Affordable Configurations
Tesla’s offerings and its pricing strategy during Q2 further stimulated demand. Tesla introduced lower-cost versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, widening accessibility without sacrificing core margins.
These moves countered affordability concerns and attracted buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines. Combined with attractive financing and leasing options, the pricing strategy converted interest into actual orders more effectively than many analysts expected.
Broad European Recovery
Supported by government incentives, corporate fleet electrification, and easing political headwinds around CEO Elon Musk, Tesla was supplied additional momentum through stronger registration numbers throughout Europe.
Strong exports from the Shanghai Gigafactory and a production ramp at Giga Berlin ensured supply met this resurgent demand. Corporate buyers, in particular, accelerated transitions to EVs to meet sustainability targets, providing a steady volume base.
These elements created a virtuous cycle that delivered the strong deliveries report. While bears correctly flagged the loss of the U.S. tax credit as a risk, Tesla’s diversified playbook demonstrated that it could remain resilient against those headwinds. The Q2 beat suggests the company remains adept at navigating shifting market conditions, even as competition intensifies.
A Tesla Semi was involved in a fatal collision on U.S. Highway 50 in Dayton, Nevada, on Sunday, June 28, 2026, marking the first known fatal crash involving the electric Class 8 truck. The incident occurred around 7:20 a.m. at the intersection with Traditions Parkway, approximately 40 miles east of Reno and close to Tesla’s Gigafactory Nevada.
According to the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office and the Nevada State Police Highway Patrol, a semi-truck struck two passenger vehicles stopped at a traffic signal. The truck hit the vehicles from behind. Two people were pronounced dead at the scene, and a third person suffered life-threatening injuries and was flown to a hospital, Forbes reported.
Preliminary statements gathered at the scene by the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office suggested the truck driver may have fallen asleep at the wheel. However, the Nevada Highway Patrol, which is leading the investigation, stated that the official cause has not yet been determined.
Additional information is expected to be released early the following week. The truck was seized for evidence as part of the ongoing probe.
Responders at the scene included deputies from the Lyon County Sheriff’s Office, personnel from the Nevada Highway Patrol, Central Lyon County Fire Department, and the Nevada Department of Transportation. The crash led to the temporary closure of U.S. 50 in both directions.
The Tesla Semi is Tesla’s battery-electric heavy-duty truck, produced at the nearby Gigafactory in Nevada. Authorities initially described the vehicle as a semi-truck; its make was subsequently confirmed through reporting and scene identification; an interesting bit of information here, as the Semi is not yet available publicly and many do not know that Tesla builds electric trucks.
The investigation remains active, with no further official details on contributing factors or vehicle systems released as of early July 2026.
This incident highlights ongoing scrutiny of commercial vehicle safety on Nevada highways, particularly involving fatigue. Law enforcement continues to gather evidence and witness statements.
Texas man charged in fatal Tesla crash where he blamed Autopilot
Tesla’s strong Q2 deliveries: Four key drivers behind the surprise
