The S-Curve: Tesla CEO Elon Musk is constantly referring to it, but what does it even mean? It could be the reason Tesla’s Model 3 revolutionizes the automotive industry.
The California-based electric car maker recently tweeted a visual representation of the S curve to make things clear for Tesla fans.
Model 3 production ramp S-Curve pic.twitter.com/QpCiGKiVWG
— Tesla (@Tesla) July 29, 2017
Essentially, the S-Curve is a production prediction that requires a company to invest vast amounts of money and resources at the beginning of production to work out the most efficient option. It’s about diffusion of innovation — as new ideas are tested, efficiency is reached, which leads to a higher volume of production.
As factory production ramps up, the low volume numbers in the beginning allow management to tweak and adjust logistics in order to create a product in the most efficient manner.
This requires time and energy, and results in a lot of trial-and-error for a company. As the company produces more of its product and fine-tunes its process, it becomes more efficient until it reaches full volume production.
Musk clarified further during the Q2 earnings report on Aug. 2.
“Model 3 drive units as well as battery packs made with our proprietary 2170 form factor cells are being built on new lines at Gigafactory 1. We are now fine-tuning these manufacturing lines to significantly increase the production rate,” Musk said. “We wish we could do all of this faster and get everyone’s Model 3 to them right away. It’s important to understand that our production ramp will follow an S-Curve, meaning that it will begin slowly, grow exponentially, then start to tail off once we achieve full production.”
These first few stages are the “production hell” that Musk nodded to during last week’s Model 3 delivery event. The S-Curve requires a patience that Tesla fans have learned to endure and skeptics on Wall Street have boiled about.
Melissa Schilling, professor of management and organizations at NYU’s Stern School of Business, recently told CNBC that the beginning of the S-Curve requires a company to pump a lot of money into their production line while getting very little in return.
As Model 3 production ramps up, it will reach full efficiency and tail off production increases will begin to plateau.
“As you start getting to the top, you’ve picked all the low-hanging fruit,” Schilling said. “Now (you) need to spend a lot more to get further.”
So as time moves on for Musk and Tesla, production will become more efficient and high-volume goals will be met.
News
Tesla one-ups Waymo once again with latest Robotaxi expansion in Austin
Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence measures roughly 171 square miles of Austin’s downtown and suburbs. This is more than double the size of Waymo’s geofence, which measures 90 square miles.

Tesla’s expansion of the Robotaxi geofence on Tuesday morning was a one-up on Waymo once again, as the automaker’s service area growth helps eclipse its rival in an intense back-and-forth.
A lot of conversation has been made about Tesla’s rivalry with Waymo in terms of the capabilities of its driverless ride-sharing service in Austin, Texas.
The two companies have sparred with one another, answering each other’s expansion, and continuing to compete, all to the benefit of consumers in the region.
Tesla expanded the geofence of Robotaxi once again this morning, and it is another growth that catapults it past Waymo’s service area in Austin — this time by a considerable margin.
Comparison of Tesla’s vs Waymo’s Robotaxi geofence map in Austin, Texas.
Today, @Tesla again massively expanded their geofence area, making it significantly bigger than Waymo’s. pic.twitter.com/tHLJ2qabZJ
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 26, 2025
Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence measures roughly 171 square miles of Austin’s downtown and suburbs. This is more than double the size of Waymo’s geofence, which measures 90 square miles.
On July 14, Tesla officially overtook Waymo in terms of service area in Austin. But just a few days later, Waymo had responded with a bold statement, expanding from 37 square miles to 90 square miles.
Sarfraz Maredia, Global Head of Autonomous Mobility & Delivery at Uber, said the move “unlock[ed] another key milestone in Austin as our operating territory with Waymo expands from 37 to 90 square miles, which means that even more riders can experience Waymo’s fully autonomous vehicles through the Uber app.”
Tesla did not respond immediately, but it took its time with validation vehicle testing in the Austin suburbs, as we reported yesterday:
Tesla looks to expand Robotaxi geofence once again with testing in new area
Today’s expansion is perhaps the biggest step Tesla has taken in its efforts to continue to grow its Robotaxi platform. This is not only because the company has significantly expanded the size of the geofence, but also because it has ventured into suburban areas and even included Gigafactory Texas in its service area.
Waymo could come up with another timely response as it did when Tesla expanded in late July. We’ll wait to see what it comes up with, as this awesome competition between the two companies is accelerating innovation.
News
Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise
Now, on August 26, the Robotaxi geofence has expanded once again, and is estimated to be about 130 square miles.

Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi geofence in Austin for the third time since its launch in late June, and the company added a big surprise with this new service area.
After launching on June 22, Tesla’s driverless Robotaxi service has been expanded three times. Its initial launch was about 20 square miles in size. The first expansion occurred on July 14 and was roughly 42 miles large, more than double the initial geofence size.
The second expansion occurred on August 3 and brought the total service area to roughly 80 square miles.
Now, on August 26, the Robotaxi geofence has expanded once again, and is estimated to be about 170 square miles.
🚨 Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi geofence in Austin once again!
This is the third time the service area has expanded! pic.twitter.com/ZzIWWLIgsQ
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 26, 2025
The expansion of the Robotaxi geofence seemed to show the company’s focus on getting the service to the areas East and West of downtown was an utmost priority.
We reported on the Bee Cave region of the Austin suburbs being a place where Robotaxi validation vehicles were spotted testing in recent days.
Bee Cave is included in the new geofence.
However, that is not the biggest addition to the geofence, and it’s not even close. Tesla added a major area to the new geofence, one that fans of the company will absolutely love: Tesla Gigafactory Texas.
🚨 Tesla Gigafactory Texas is now available in the new Robotaxi geofence: https://t.co/Ctcm0HNZk4 pic.twitter.com/7nyhQNYLww
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 26, 2025
The big question that remains is whether Tesla is expanding the size of its fleet of Robotaxi vehicles in Austin. There have been many questions about the expansions of the fleet and not necessarily the geofence, and while the latter is certainly considered progress, Tesla will need to enable more Robotaxi into the vehicle population to handle the additional rides.
Tesla has been planning to do so, but is still prioritizing safety and does not want to rush any part of the Robotaxi process.
Tesla is also looking to expand to new cities altogether. It is currently moving toward a Robotaxi launch in Florida, Arizona, and Nevada, and has also opened up job postings for Robotaxi operators in New York.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates his most optimistic prediction yet with “UHI” forecast
Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist.

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist. If he were not one, he would never have founded Tesla or SpaceX, or pursued projects such as Neuralink or xAI.
Musk’s optimism was on full display on social media platform X recently, when he shared what could very well be his most optimistic prediction yet.
Robots and humans
The Tesla CEO recently responded to a post from David Scott Patterson, who estimated that all jobs will be replaced by AI and robots easily by 2030. In his post, Patterson noted that if robots are sold at the same rate as vehicles, it could result in an output of 320 million robots per year.
Musk responded that eventually, intelligent humanoid robots will far exceed the population of humans, and “there will be many robots in industry for every human to provide products & services.”
Musk is already taking steps to achieve such a future. Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is expected to see its first “legion” produced this 2025. During an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk also hinted to Tesla employees that the company will try to produce about 50,000 Optimus robots next year.
Universal High Income (UHI)
Musk has shared similar sentiments in the past, so it was no surprise that some X users asked the CEO how humans could sustain their lives when robots replace working individuals. To this, Musk responded that a Universal High Income (UHI) would be implemented, which should provide people with the best medical care, food, and transport available.
“There will be universal high income (not merely basic income). Everyone will have the best medical care, food, home, transport and everything else. Sustainable abundance,” Musk wrote in his post.
Musk’s comment about sustainable abundance seems to be a prevalent theme in his recent optimistic comments. During Tesla’s second quarter earnings call, for example, Musk hinted that his Master Plan Part Four will describe a path towards sustainable abundance in a post-autonomy world.
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