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Tesla, other carmakers’ EV output could ‘vastly outweigh consumer demand’ by 2030: study

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With electric vehicles steadily improving and with large markets such as Europe and China embracing sustainable transport, the market for green cars has seen a notable rise. In 2018 alone, two million electric vehicles were sold globally, and all signs point to further growth ahead. In a recent analysis, research firm Deloitte noted that over the next decade, there would probably be an additional 21 million EVs driving on roads across the globe.

Deloitte expects the adoption of electric vehicles to become more widespread in the coming years. From two million in 2018, the research firm expects 4 million EVs to be sold by 2020. By 2025, Deloitte expects global EV sales to hit 12 million. By 2030, the research firm estimates electric vehicle adoption to rise to 21 million units, with battery-electric vehicles such as Tesla’s Model S, 3, and X accounting for roughly 70% of the global auto market’s total EV sales.

Deloitte’s analysis notes that two notable factors primarily drive this strong EV adoption trend. One, there is a growing demand for well-rounded electric vehicles like the Tesla Model 3. Two, government policies from key markets such as Europe and China are becoming more favorable for EVs and EV-buyers, including inner-city restrictions for gasoline and diesel-powered cars.

While electric cars today are still weighed down by their prices, Deloitte’s research suggests that EVs would likely reach cost parity with gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2024. Supported with government subsidies and augmented by technological advances such as Tesla’s ever-evolving driver-assist Autopilot features, the research firm estimates that cost parity with internal combustion-powered cars could be achieved as early as 2021. Michael Woodward, UK automotive partner at Deloitte, explained the firm’s findings as follows.

“In 2018, we saw global EV sales surpass two million units for the first time; twice those sold in 2017. In the UK, the cost of petrol and diesel vehicle ownership will converge with electric over the next five years. Supported by existing government subsidies and technology advances, this tipping point could be reached as early as 2021. From this point, cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase, and owning an EV will become a realistic, viable option for new buyers,” he said.

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While Deloitte’s conclusions invoke an air of optimism for the electric car market, though, the research firm’s UK automotive partner warns that there would likely be a point where supply would exceed the demand for electric vehicles. The firm’s research also warns that the number of new and legacy auto manufacturers entering the EV market over the next years would eventually be “unsustainable.”

“Whilst there is a distinct trend developing in the EV market, the story is not a clear cut one. As manufacturers increase their capacity, our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade. This gearing up of EV production is driving a wide ‘expectation gap’ and manufacturers, both incumbent and new entrants alike, will need to adapt towards this new competitive landscape. Those that can successfully build trust in their brand, ensure a positive customer experience from initial sale through to aftercare, and reflect consumer shifts towards the sharing economy in future business models will successfully navigate this. Equally, continual investment in engineering talent and the formation of partnerships with bespoke battery producers and third-party mechanic networks will also be important.”

In a way, the conclusions drawn by Deloitte are a bit strange, since the firm seems to be suggesting that the global demand for electric cars would roughly peak at 21 million a year. Considering that the overall auto market is far larger than 21 million vehicles per year (Statista estimates that over 80 million cars were sold in 2018 alone), the study appears to be suggesting that the demand for gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles would remain steady long after EVs reach cost parity. This is a pretty liberal assumption, which ignores the idea of car buyers completely committing to electric transportation once they try out a premium EV.

Tesla’s growth and triumphs over the years had all but proved that there is a very real demand for premium electric cars in the market. With the release of potentially disruptive vehicles such as the Model Y SUV, the Tesla pickup truck, and the Tesla Semi, the market’s acceptance of electric cars as a preferred form of transportation would likely be even more pronounced. As more car buyers transition to EVs, it would not be too farfetched to assume that the demand for electric cars could far exceed 21 million vehicles per year long after 2030.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

Nearly two weeks before it is even set for its planned rollout, Tesla Robotaxi has already been deemed a failure — even though it is not even publicly released.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi is among the biggest tech developments of the year, and its June launch date has not yet arrived.

This does not matter to skeptics of the company, as they have already deemed the rollout a “failure,” “an enormous mess,” and plenty of other adjectives. No matter what, several outlets are already leaning on biased opinions and a lack of true evidence that points in any direction.

Futurism posted an article this morning claiming that Robotaxi is “already an enormous mess,” citing the opinions of Dan O’Dowd, perhaps Full Self-Driving’s biggest critic. There is no mention of any of the excitement or prosperity that would come from the opposite side of the argument.

Instead, it included that O’Dowd felt it was a failure in an 80-minute drive around Santa Barbara.

This is fair to include: Full Self-Driving is not perfect, which is why Tesla will implement safeguards like teleoperation at first. However, it’s not like it’s so awful it isn’t even remotely close. Personally, my experience with FSD was incredibly successful, responsible, and it was something I still wish I had on my car to this day. I wish the article would have included a quote from someone who is as equally passionate about FSD, just from the other side of the argument.

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Credit: Tesla

There is no mention of Tesla’s most recent Vehicle Safety Report, which showed Autopilot-enabled cars are nearly 10x less likely to be involved in an accident compared to the national average. This might not be the same as Full Self-Driving, but it is still a testament to what Tesla has achieved with its driver assistance systems.

To be fair, Tesla has been a company that has missed timelines, especially when it comes to FSD. I used to roll my eyes a bit when CEO Elon Musk would say, “We’ll have Full Self-Driving finished by the end of the year,” or “We’ll have a million robotaxis on the road next year.” I was always skeptical.

However, Tesla has handled things differently this year. They’ve admitted the Robotaxi rollout will be controlled at first, including a fleet of only 10-20 Model Y vehicles. It will be private at launch, and only the lucky invited will have the opportunity to experience it in Austin in June.

It might be less than a public rollout, which of course, for people like you and me, is disappointing. But let’s be real: if Tesla launched a full-blown Robotaxi platform with no regulations or small-batch testing, there would be criticism of that, too.

Some media outlets are pointing to the recent NHTSA request for more information on how Tesla’s tech will “assess the ability of Tesla’s system to react appropriately to reduced roadway visibility conditions.” This seems more than reasonable as Robotaxi will be among the first driverless ridesharing programs in the United States.

Tesla gets new information request from NHTSA on Robotaxi rollout

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It’s no more than a request for information on how things will be handled and how the tech works.

It is sad to see so many outlets already deem something that could be the next big thing as a failure, despite there being no real indication of it being that or a success. Let’s be fair and give Tesla an opportunity to meet its June target and Robotaxi some time to operate and prove to be a reliable ride-share option.

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Tesla confirms annoying Full Self-Driving feature has been fixed

Tesla has changed one of its driver monitoring features in a request from several owners.

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Tesla has confirmed that an annoying Full Self-Driving feature has been fixed.

We reported last week that several owners reported changes in the feature, and now we have confirmation that it has been revised by Tesla.

Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) does not require a driver’s hands to be on the steering wheel. However, eye movements and attentiveness are tracked through a cabin-facing camera, aiming to improve safety and limit loopholes in the system.

Tesla seems to have fixed one of Full Self-Driving’s most annoying features

If the system detects that your eyes are not on the road or you are not paying attention, FSD will nudge you to get them back on the road. Too many occurrences of the driver not paying attention will result in losing access to FSD for the remainder of the drive.

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However, many drivers using FSD complained that the system was too quick to alert drivers of inattentiveness. Fixing things like the HVAC temperature or even Autopilot settings on the center touchscreen would get you a nudge, which seemed unreasonably fast. Many drivers said it was a seven-second limit, but it seemed faster than this.

In my experience, FSD nudged me to pay attention to the road when I was adjusting the speed offset, which gives the vehicle permission to travel over the speed limit by a percentage. For example, a 10% offset in a 50 MPH zone would let the car travel 55 MPH.

The nudging seemed to be too fast and annoying, and many other Tesla drivers agreed. CEO Elon Musk had even noted that the nudge was too fast and drivers were right to be annoyed with it, especially considering that, in theory, it would be safer to adjust these settings on FSD and not while operating the car manually.

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Tesla took the criticism drivers had and turned it into a much-needed and notable change that has now been confirmed by Ashok Elluswamy, Head of AI and Autopilot for the company:

The change seems to be initiated on vehicles with Hardware 4. It is certainly a welcome change as the nudge was just a tad sensitive and could have been much more reasonable.

The adjustment made by Tesla came just a week after owners truly started becoming more vocal about the issue.

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Tesla bull, ARK head Cathie Wood says brand damage is not long-term

Cathie Wood of ARK Invest does not believe Tesla brand damage is a long-term problem.

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Tesla bull and head of ARK Invest, Cathie Wood, admitted during an interview with Bloomberg that she does believe the company has experienced some brand damage due to CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement. However, she does not believe it is a long-term issue.

Over the past eight months, Musk’s involvement in the U.S. political landscape has swayed some to stop supporting Tesla, others to ditch their cars, and some to boycott the brand altogether. Inversely, others have started supporting Musk, Tesla, and its products as a nod of support for what he’s done for government efficiency.

The perspective on how Musk’s involvement has impacted Tesla truly varies. Its impact has been noticeable, especially in Europe, as some countries have seen some pretty drastic declines in deliveries since the start of the year.

However, some of this can be attributed to the company’s switchover to new production lines for the updated Model Y. Some can also be blamed on economic issues, as the cost of living is still relatively high. There is no denying that at least some of the impact has come from those who simply disagree with Musk and are choosing not to buy his companies’ products.

Wood is among Tesla’s most outspoken bulls and has tremendously high expectations for the stock moving into the late 2020s and into the 2030s. In a recent interview, she highlighted the brand’s exceptional potential moving forward, but did address some of the short-term concerns, especially regarding Tesla’s perception amongst the public:

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“I think he feels he has a duty to the country to make sure we don’t ‘blow ourselves up’ with these deficits. Brand damage? Yes. I do not believe [it is long-term]. Tesla, we believe, will have a lock on the Robotaxi business in the U.S., and we believe they are going to proliferate through the United States, especially if we remove regulation from a state level to a federal level, which we believe will happen.”

Musk announced during the company’s most recent Earnings Call that he would step back from his government duties and return to Tesla in a more consistent role, as his work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seemed to be winding down to a certain extent.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms time spent with DOGE will drop ‘significantly’

It was a big win for Tesla investors, as many were interested in Musk returning his focus to the automaker, especially as 2025 is expected to be a year of many catalysts between the Robotaxi launch, affordable models coming into play, production of the Semi starting at the tail-end of the year, and the Optimus robot continuing consistent development.

Wood was quick to point out that Tesla is not the only car company that was suffering with lagging sales, as a macro-level perspective on the automotive industry proves that many automakers are looking for ways to avert disaster due to the ongoing tariff war.

Tesla is still the highest-valued automaker in the world, and it has plenty of bullish points to look forward to as the year nears the halfway point.

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