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Electric pickup buyers hold multiple reservations as delivery date uncertainty looms: survey
With so many electric pickups set to hit the market in the coming years, consumers are playing their hands by holding reservations on multiple EV trucks due to the uncertainty of when they might be delivered.
A new survey from Recurrent shows that “about 89% of Tesla Cybertruck reservations overlap with another truck pre-order, and 100% of Ford F-150 and Chevrolet Silverado reservations also pre-ordered another vehicle on this list. ”
It is no secret a major focus of many electric automakers in 2021 and 2022 was the EV pickup. With trucks being such a popular body style in the United States and elsewhere, companies were fending to offer the first EV pickup, but also the most effective one. While Rivian’s R1T was the first electric pickup on the market, the GMC Hummer EV joined the list shortly after. However, notable newcomers and worthy opponents are coming, as the Tesla Cybertruck and Chevrolet Silverado EV are both expected to hit production lines in the next year. A breakdown of how many reservations each truck has, and how prospective EV truck buyers are playing their multiple pre-orders, shows the anticipation for the emergence of the electric pickup market.
“We knew that 2022 would be the year of the electric truck, and the year has not disappointed us, at least as far as pre-orders go,” Scott Case, CEO and co-founder of Recurrent, said. “But I’m also taking pre-order number claims by manufacturers with a grain of salt, because clearly not all of those orders are solid. Shoppers should not be scared off by long pre-order waits if they know the vehicle you want.”
It has been reported on numerous occasions that the Tesla Cybertruck has accumulated a massive number of pre-orders: 1.27 million+, according to Recurrent’s research. The F-150 Lightning is second with 200,000 pre-orders, and the Rivian R1T and R1S and Hummer EV have 90,000 and 65,000, respectively.
However, the breakdown of how these pre-orders are being played is most interesting. Recurrent surveyed over 200 EV shoppers in a partnership with AAA Washington to see what EVs buyers have pre-ordered and which they intend to actually purchase. The research showed that Tesla vehicles have 100 percent order fulfillment, while other vehicles, like the Chevy Silverado EV, only had a 20 percent fulfillment rate.
“In the case of Tesla, there is a non-refundable order fee that may weed out some impulsive reservations, as well as the knowledge that the market is hot enough to resell your order before you even take delivery,” the study said. Recurrent attributed the outliers above to three factors:
- Uncertainty on delivery time – or delivery at all – may cause some shoppers to modulate their enthusiasm for certain vehicles. Of course, the Tesla Cybertruck, with its seemingly infinite production delays, comes to mind here.
- Refundable reservations mean that customers can express interest in many cars and make the decision when they see when, and what, they can actually drive off in.
- With all the buzz around electric vehicles, manufacturers may be incentivized to make reservations easy for shoppers in order to pump up their numbers, even if these reservations don’t all turn into sales
In general, however, EV truck buyers are more likely to have multiple reservations. Recurrent says the strategy of over-ordering allows buyers to keep their options open, especially as production and delivery dates have not yet been solidified by the manufacturers, which gives the reservations holders more time to analyze their decisions. However, 89 percent of Cybertruck reservations overlap with another EV truck order, while 100 percent of Ford F-150 Lightning and Chevy Silverado EV orders are paired with another vehicle on the list Recurrent put together.
Credit: Recurrent
Additionally, the study found that Tesla brand loyalty runs deep. “Recurrent found that many families have gone all-in on Tesla. Around 50% of those who have reserved both a Telsa Cyber Truck and a Tesla car model plan to redeem both,” it said.
Tesla reservations do not seem to overlap with other brands, which would align with the company’s history of brand loyalty. “If you’ve reserved a Ford F-150, Rivian, or Chevy Silverado, chances are good that you may also have reserved a Tesla Cybertruck,” Recurrent’s study added. “But, if you’re interested in any of the new, non-truck options on this list, there is virtually no overlap with the Tesla brand. There is a clear chasm between non-Tesla cars and Tesla reservations.”
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Tesla has its answer to grow its automotive sales over the next few years, TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli says, but it just has to bring it to the U.S.
On Thursday, Michaeli reiterated his $490 price target and the ‘Buy’ rating he already held on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA). However, its automotive division has struggled to show sequential growth over the past few years, mostly due to its focus on AI and Full Self-Driving. Tesla already axed two of its lower-volume vehicles with the Model S and Model X earlier this year.
However, Tesla does not need to engineer an entire new vehicle to trigger an upward tick in sales; it just has to bring it from China to the U.S., Michaeli said.
He is talking about the Model Y L, a slightly larger version of the all-electric crossover that is already available in China. U.S. customers have been pleading with CEO Elon Musk to bring it to the country since its launch in Asia last year, but he’s not convinced of it because of the advent of self-driving and its importance in this particular market.
The problem is that Tesla owners have been requesting something larger that could fit a typical American family. The Model Y L is slightly larger than the standard Model Y, but some are concerned that it could still be too small to fit what most people might need.
Instead, they have asked for a full-size SUV from Tesla.
Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck
Nevertheless, the Model Y L still presents a great opportunity for Tesla in the U.S., and Michaeli says that there is an additional sales opportunity of about 100,000 units, with demand potential falling somewhere between 60,000 and 135,000 units.
TD Cowen’s note to investors also analyzed that Tesla’s growth could come from a stock perspective as well, positively impacting the stock price, as it has been widely reliant on vehicle sales, even though Tesla has truly phased itself away from that being an important metric.
Tesla stands to gain greatly from the introduction of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if Elon Musk sees it as a viable fit for the market. Families may need to see Tesla bring something larger to the U.S., or they might be forced to buy from another automaker that offers something that fits is needs for more interior space to haul around the kids.
Tesla Hardware 3 owners are set to get a new Full Self-Driving version this month as the company plans to release what it is referring to as v14 Lite.
The rollout is not yet confirmed for June, but Tesla executives have stated on several occasions that this more refined FSD iteration will work with their cars and increase its capabilities.
This comes after Tesla admitted during its last Earnings Call that these Hardware 3 vehicles would not be able to achieve Full Self-Driving, something that they did not know when they bought these cars. We regularly receive messages from Hardware 3 owners asking when v14 Lite will come out, what they should expect, and whether it is worth it to upgrade the self-driving computer or buy a new car altogether.
Following future rollout of FSD V14 Lite for HW3 vehicles in the US, we plan on expanding V14 Lite to additional international markets.
This update ensures that HW3 vehicle owners will continue to benefit from ongoing software updates.
Since international rollout is subject to…
— Tesla (@Tesla) April 29, 2026
It is hard not to feel for them; Tesla CEO Elon Musk said at the company’s 2019 Autonomy Day that all vehicles produced at the time, including Hardware 3 cars, had “all the hardware necessary, compute and otherwise, for Full Self-Driving.”
Musk also said in March of that year that, “Anyone who purchased Full Self-Driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free.”
Anyone who purchased full self-driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free. This is the only change between Autopilot HW2.5 & HW3. Going forward “HW3” will just be called FSD Computer, which is accurate. No change to vehicle sensors or wire harness needed. This is v important. https://t.co/lICMpT7xnX
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 29, 2019
However, during the Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Musk admitted that Hardware 3 vehicles would not be capable of FSD, as “It has only 1/8th the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4, and memory bandwidth is one of the key elements needed for unsupervised FSD.”
Tesla has made some effort to remedy these Hardware 3 owners by offering:
- Discounted trade-ins toward AI4 cars
- Hardware retrofits, which would replace the self-driving computer and upgrade all cameras
- Full Self-Driving v14 Lite
The issue is that many of these owners were led to believe their cars would be capable of unsupervised self-driving. Now, they’re left scrambling for options, and while there are several, they will all require more money out of their pockets.
Expectations for Tesla v14 Lite for Hardware 3 Owners
The big differences between the AI4 v14 and v14 Lite for Hardware 3 owners will stem primarily from hardware constraints. Tesla developed v14 Lite with an optimized frame of mind; the v14 neural nets are toned down to run on an HW3 computer.
Tesla v14 will use the same behavior, but its limits will be hardware-related, especially given that the cameras on HW3 vehicles are lower-resolution.
Tesla reveals its plans for Hardware 3 owners who are eager for updates
This will result in potentially more edge cases due to the lower quality perception and less long-range detection, but reaction time and overall confidence should be more refined.
There should also be a handful of additional features that are available on AI4 cars, such as:
- Starting Full Self-Driving from Park
- Auto Shift
- Streaks
- Speed Profiles
- Improved Dynamics, like Pulling Over for Emergency Vehicles
Tesla plans to release v14 Lite this month, but we are all familiar with how the company can be with timelines. Additionally, if v14 Lite has not proven to be ready for a wide release, Tesla will slam the brakes on the rollout.
We would anticipate that Tesla is testing v14 Lite internally, and likely has been for several months.
Elon Musk
SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app
SpaceXAI just powered its first consumer app and it predicts what you want to buy.
SpaceXAI just made its first move into consumer AI, and it involves your grocery cart. On June 3, 2026, Gopuff and SpaceXAI announced the launch of Go, a Grok-powered shopping assistant built directly into the Gopuff app that predicts what you need before you even start searching for it.
Gopuff is an instant delivery platform that operates more than 400 micro-fulfillment centers across the U.S., delivering everyday essentials, snacks, drinks, and household items in as little as 15 minutes. It is not a restaurant delivery app or a marketplace. It owns its inventory, controls its warehouses, and handles its own logistics, which means it has built one of the most detailed consumer behavior datasets in retail over its 13-year history.
Go combines SpaceXAI’s advanced reasoning, voice, and image generation models with Gopuff’s dataset of hundreds of millions of orders and real-time cultural signals from X to prepare a suggested cart the moment a customer opens the app. It learns each shopper’s habits and automatically builds a personalized cart based on time of day, location, order history, and real-time indicators. Returning customers can check out with a single tap.
Rather than searching for specific items, users can describe a situation like a game-day party or the desire for a healthy breakfast and Go will assemble a cart automatically. It can also predict when shoppers are running low on items like coffee or paper towels and have them packed and delivered in under 15 minutes. Grok voice integration lets users talk to the app in plain conversational language and check out completely hands-free.
Gopuff co-founder and co-CEO Yakir Gola said: “Today, we believe the greatest friction left in commerce is not delivery or instantaneous access to the essentials customers need. It’s the moment before: the thinking, the deciding, the remembering. We’re combining Gopuff’s demand intelligence with xAI’s frontier reasoning to create an everyday shopping experience that feels like a true extension of you.”
Why SpaceX just made a $60 billion bet on AI coding ahead of historic IPO
The timing carries context beyond the product launch. SpaceXAI was formed after SpaceX completed an all-stock merger with Elon Musk’s xAI earlier this year, folding one of the most advanced AI labs in the world into the same corporate structure as the company preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. SpaceXAI is dipping into consumer-focused AI just as it prepares for its public debut, and while Musk has openly discussed building an everything app, this launch uses Grok to power another company’s product rather than launching a standalone consumer platform. Every consumer-facing deployment of Grok ahead of the IPO roadshow adds tangible evidence that SpaceXAI is not just an infrastructure play but a direct competitor in the AI application layer where OpenAI and Google are already fighting for dominance.
Tesla has its answer to auto growth, it just has to bring it to the U.S.: analyst
Tesla Hardware 3 owners could be made whole this month
