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Elon Musk pegs SpaceX BFR program at $5B as NASA’s rocket booster nears $5B in cost overruns
At the same time as NASA’s overrun-stricken Space Launch System (SLS) continues to limp towards its continuously delayed launch debut, now tentatively expected no earlier than (NET) 2021, SpaceX is forging ahead with the development of an equivalently capable launch vehicle known as BFR, comprised of a spaceship (BFS) and booster (BFB).
During a September 17th update to the next-gen SpaceX rocket’s steady progress, CEO Elon Musk offered a rough cost estimate of $5B to complete its development – no less than $2B and no more than $10B. According to NASA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), Boeing – primary contractor for NASA’s SLS “Core Stage” or booster – is all but guaranteed to burn through a minimum of $8.9B between 2012 and the rocket’s tentative 2021 launch debut.
NASA is finally (officially) acknowledging that EM-1, the maiden launch of SLS, will slip until at least June 2020. Sources tell us to expect another slip to 2021, official or not.https://t.co/CYf9SqbhBY
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) October 3, 2018
Originally contracted in 2014 to complete SLS booster development, production, and preparation by 2018 at a cost of $4.2B, Boeing has overrun its budget by a bit less than 50% (up to $6.2B) and overshot its scheduled launch debut by more than 2.5 years. Per an October 10th audit of the SLS booster program, NASA OIG has reasonably concluded that Boeing will pass that $6.2B expenditure estimate – meant to last until 2021 – in December 2018, meaning that at least an additional $2.7B will be required from NASA between now and 2021 if SLS is to have a chance at launching that year.
In other words, compared to Boeing’s first serious 2014 contract for the SLS Core Stages – $4.2B to complete Core Stages 1 and 2 and launch EM-1 in Nov. 2017 – the company will ultimately end up 215% over-budget ($4.2B to $8.9B) and ~40 months behind schedule (42 months to 80+ months from contract award to completion). Meanwhile, as OIG notes, NASA has continued to give Boeing impossibly effusive and glowing performance reviews to the tune of $323 million in “award fees”, with grades that would – under the contracting book NASA itself wrote – imply that Boeing SLS Core Stage work has been reliably under budget and ahead of schedule (it’s not).
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- SLS Block 1. (NASA)
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- An overview of SLS. (NASA)
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- Rockets are perhaps even more capital intensive. (SpaceX)
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- BFR 2018’s Spaceship, BFS. (SpaceX)
The “Satisfactory” Stuff
In reality, Boeing has not once been under budget or ahead of schedule during any of 6+ NASA performance reviews.
“Boeing should have received a “satisfactory” rating for [two review periods]; a “good” rating for [one review period]; and an “unsatisfactory” rating (no award fee) for [the 2017 review period].”
Instead, NASA has given Boeing three “Very Good” (nearly perfect) reviews and three “Excellent” (perfect) reviews over the last 6 years, ultimately dispersing $323M of pure-profit “award fees” thanks to those grades, while the OIG firmly disputes Boing’s worthiness for at least $65M of that sum.
It is pretty pathetic when the only response that @BoeingSpace can muster via @BKingDC at its #politicospace PR effort in response to a damning @NASA_SLS report by @NASAOIG is to dump on the Saturn V – a rocket that actually flew – and worked – half a century ago. https://t.co/daN91bzwpC
— NASA Watch (@NASAWatch) October 12, 2018
Boeing – recently brought to light as the likely source of a spate of egregiously counterfactual op-eds published with the intention of dirtying SpaceX’s image – also took it upon itself to sponsor what could be described as responses to NASA OIG’s scathing October 10th SLS audit. Hilariously, a Politico newsletter sponsored by Boeing managed to explicitly demean and belittle the Apollo-era Saturn V rocket as a “rickety metal bucket built with 1960s technology”, of which Boeing was the core stage’s prime contractor.
At the same time, that newsletter described SLS as a rocket that will be “light years ahead of thespacecraft [sic] that NASA astronauts used to get to the moon 50 years ago.” At present, the only clear way SLS is or will be “light years” ahead – as much a measure of time as it is of distance – of Saturn V is by continuing the rocket’s trend of endless delays. Perhaps NASA astronomers will soon be able to judge exactly how many “light years ahead” SLS is by measuring the program’s redshift or blueshift with one of several ground- and space-based telescopes.
Ultimately, this is a particularly effective bit of self-mockery in the context of rationale lately used by Boeing and NASA to shrug off the jaw-dropping Core Stage contract’s underperformance, missteps, schedule slips, and budget overruns, namely that building big, complex rockets is hard. NASA and Boeing, neither of which have any meaningful experience building big, complex rockets – aside from Saturn IB, Saturn V, and the Space Shuttle – thus should be given a break for reliably and dramatically underestimating the difficulties of doing so in the 21st century.
One of the most breathtaking things about the new SLS report is the response by NASA's Gerstenmaier. Essentially, he says, this a is a big, complex rocket. And it's hard to build this stuff.https://t.co/ou8SFhji6a
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) October 10, 2018
Simultaneously, Boeing and NASA still continue to act as if they are the foremost global experts of building extremely large rockets and continue to throw pile upon pile of taxpayer billions at overpromised attempts to prove as much. It’s no more than a masochistic dream to imagine what could have been or might be if NASA instead redirected those billions towards US aerospace companies with track records of success through fixed-cost contracts or straight-up private funding (SpaceX and Blue Origin, primarily), but it’s often hard not to at least think about the possibilities.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Elon Musk
Elon Musk to file lawsuit against former US Rep Jamaal Bowman: “I’ve had enough”
Bowman called the Tesla CEO a “Nazi” and a “thief” during a segment on CNN.
Elon Musk has announced that he is filing a lawsuit against former United States Representative Jamaal Bowman over his recent comments in a CNN segment.
Musk shared his legal intentions in a post on social media platform X.
Bowman’s Comments
During an appearance on CNN, Bowman, who made news in 2023 by triggering a fire alarm while Congress was in session, strongly criticized Elon Musk. Unlike other Musk critics, Bowman went straight for the jugular, calling the CEO a “Nazi” and a “thief.” Bowman’s comments received polarizing reactions in social media, with some users stating that such words could be used to sue for defamation.
“The American people do not trust Elon Musk. And Elon Musk is incompetent in his position. And how do we know? Because they fired tens of thousands of people, it was challenged in court, the court said people have to go back, and now the people are coming back. He’s incompetent, he’s a thief, he’s a Nazi, and people don’t trust him,” Bowman said.
“I’ve Had Enough”
In a comment to a video of Bowman’s CNN segment that was shared on X, Musk stated that the former Democratic Congressman’s words have crossed a line. “I’ve had enough. Lawsuit inbound,” Musk wrote in a post on X. Musk’s post received some support from X users, several of whom noted that it’s high time the CEO fought back against the vitriol that is consistently thrown his way.
Musk has been on the receiving end of protests from critics who oppose his work with U.S. President Donald Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Opposition against Musk has spilled over to Tesla, resulting in stores being shot, firebombed by Molotov cocktails, vandalized, and vehicles and Superchargers being subjected to arson. Even regular Tesla owners have reported a growing wave of vandalism incidents.
News
Tesla aiming to produce first “legion” of Optimus robots this 2025
Tesla is aiming to start the production of Optimus this year, and its first run will be no joke.
Tesla’s Q1 2025 All-Hands meeting saw CEO Elon Musk share a key update about the company’s most ambitious product yet — Optimus. As per Musk, Tesla is aiming to start the production of Optimus this year, and its first run will be no joke.
Tesla Optimus’ Quick Evolution
Tesla initially announced Optimus during its AI Day event in 2021. At the time, Tesla only had a mockup of the robot and a literal person in a suit to demonstrate what Optimus could look like. By 2022, Tesla had a working prototype of the robot. Optimus’ progress has been rapid since then, with several dozens of the humanoid robots interacting with attendees at the Cybercab’s unveiling last October.
Optimus’ Potential
During the recent All-Hands meeting, Elon Musk reiterated the idea that Optimus could very well be the biggest product of all time, likely being ten times larger than the next-biggest product. Musk also shared an update about Optimus’ production, stating that the first humanoid robot has been manufactured at the Fremont Factory.
A Legion for 2025
When discussing Optimus’ ramp, Musk clarified that Tesla is internally aiming for enough parts to produce 10,000 to 12,000 Optimus robots this year. However, since Optimus is a completely different product, even half of 10,000 units would be a huge victory for Tesla. Tesla also plans to ramp Optimus to a notable degree in 2026, with the company aiming for 50,000 units, or 10 “legions” of humanoid robots, next year.
“So this year, we hopefully will be able to make about 5,000 Optimus robots. We’re technically aiming for enough parts to make 10,000, maybe 12,000, but since it’s a totally new product with a totally new, like everything is totally new, I’ll say we’re succeeding if we get to half go the 10,000.
“But even 5,000 robots, that’s the size of a Roman legion, FYI, which is like a little scary thought. Like a whole legion of robots, I’ll be like ‘whoa.’ But I think we will literally build a legion, at least one legion of robots this year, and then probably 10 legions next year. I think it’s kind of a cool unit, you know? Units of legion. So probably 50,000-ish next year,” Musk said.
Tesla’s Q1 2025 All-Hands Meeting can be viewed below.
News
Tesla Shanghai Megafactory starts exporting Megapacks, first to Australia
Tesla Asia celebrated the Shanghai Megafactory’s first Megapack exports on X.
Tesla has begun exporting Megapack battery systems from its Shanghai Megafactory, with the first shipment departing for Australia on Friday. This marks a key step in Tesla Energy’s expansion into the global energy storage industry, utilizing its new China-based Megafactory to supply several new markets.
Tesla Asia celebrated the Shanghai Megafactory’s first Megapack exports through its official social media account on X.
Tesla Megapacks in Focus
The Tesla Megapack is capable of storing 3.9 MWh of energy, and they are designed for grid use. As per Tesla in its official website, each Megapack battery has enough energy to power an average of 3,600 homes for one hour. The Megapack is designed to be infinitely scalable as well, making it a good fit for large-scale sustainable energy projects.
The Shanghai Megafactory
The Shanghai Megafactory began production in early 2025, a record eight months after its May 2024 groundbreaking. With an initial output of 10,000 units annually, equal to about 40 GWh, the Shanghai Megafactory has the potential to significantly boost Tesla’s battery storage deployments.
As per a report from Xinhua News Agency, Tesla is expecting its energy deployments to rise 50% year-over-year this 2025.
Tesla Leaders on the Shanghai Megafactory
Mike Snyder, vice president of energy and charging at Tesla, previously outlined the potential of the Shanghai Megafactory. “Megafactory gives us the ability to scale production and efficiency. We can lower logistics costs as well as product costs, and grow the business to new markets,” he stated.
The Shanghai Megafactory also seems to be part of Tesla’s efforts to grow its presence in China, which was highlighted by CEO Elon Musk during a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. During their meeting, Musk reportedly stated that “Tesla is willing to deepen cooperation with China and achieve more win-win results.”
Elon Musk to file lawsuit against former US Rep Jamaal Bowman: “I’ve had enough”
Tesla aiming to produce first “legion” of Optimus robots this 2025
Tesla Shanghai Megafactory starts exporting Megapacks, first to Australia
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