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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely
In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.
The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”
The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.
First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.
Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.
Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.
Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”
Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.
For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.
This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.
Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.
If a severe global recession were to dry up capital availability / liquidity while SpaceX was losing billions on Starlink & Starship, then bankruptcy, while still unlikely, is not impossible.
GM & Chrysler went BK last recession.
“Only the paranoid survive.” – Grove— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 30, 2021
Elon Musk
Elon Musk confirms Grok 4 launch on July 9 with livestream event
The rollout will be accompanied by a livestream at 8 p.m. Pacific Time.

Elon Musk has officially confirmed that Grok 4, the latest version of xAI’s large language model, will launch on July 9. The rollout will be accompanied by a livestream at 8 p.m. Pacific Time, hosted on xAI’s official account on X.
xAI goes straight to Grok 4
Back in May, leaks indicated that xAI was getting ready to ship Grok 3.5. Considering Musk’s recent comments, however, it appears that the artificial intelligence startup would be focusing on the large language model’s fourth iteration instead. As noted in a Financial Express report, users on X have sighted references to Grok 4 in the lead up to the update’s launch, such as “grok-4-prod-mimic” and “Grok 4 Code.”
Musk’s Grok 4 announcement comes as AI competition intensifies between major players including OpenAI, Google, and xAI. With Musk’s Colossus supercomputer fully operational in Memphis, xAI appears to be accelerating its AI product roadmap.
Musk pushes Grok toward political neutrality
Grok 4’s launch also follows a recent controversy involving political bias, as noted in a CNN report. Last week, Grok responded to a user on X stating that political violence in the U.S. since 2016 had come more from the political right than the left. The chatbot noted in a later reply that its answer was based on information from sources like Reuters, the Journal of Democracy, and University of Maryland studies.
Musk stated that Grok’s response was a “major fail.” “Major fail, as this is objectively false. Grok is parroting legacy media. Working on it,” he wrote in a post on X. By the end of June, Musk noted that he was “grinding all night with the xAI team” and that they were making “good progress.” He also stated that the model “Will be called Grok 4. Release just after July 4th. Needs one more big run for a specialized coding model.”
News
Tesla opens massive solar Supercharger station in California
The Supercharger opened to customers ahead of Fourth of July weekend, while Tesla continues phase two of construction on the site.

Tesla has officially launched the first several Supercharging posts at a massive station in California, notably including solar canopies and grid-scale batteries to offer completely renewable charging.
Last week, Tesla announced on X that it opened the first 84 Supercharger stalls of a planned 168-stall station in Lost Hills, California. Additionally, the massive Supercharger project features 11MW of solar canopies and 10 Megapack batteries for off-grid charging powered entirely by solar energy.
Tesla completed the first phase of the project just days ahead of the busy Fourth of July holiday weekend, adding that initial construction took just eight months. In addition to the remaining charging stalls, Tesla says it’s building a set of lounge areas, renderings of which can be seen below alongside current photos of the site.
Notably, the site also includes V4 charging posts for the company’s latest available charging speeds, and it’s located near the busy junction between I-5 and Highway 46 in Kern County.
“Thank you [Kern County] and [PG&E] for collaboration and approvals,” Tesla wrote in a follow-up post.

Credit: Tesla Charging | X

Credit: Tesla Charging | X

Credit: Tesla Charging | X

Credit: Tesla Charging | X
Tesla Supercharger Maps for North America, Europe, and Asia pic.twitter.com/0U5r0XRPyo
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 2, 2025
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Testing at the LA Diner, plus Musk update on potential Tesla solar Gigafactory
The huge Tesla Supercharger station completed phase one of construction fairly quickly, especially given how long Tesla has been working on its unique Los Angeles diner, drive-in, and Supercharger location. Still, the company was seen performing some testing at the nearly-completed charging station earlier this month, and will reportedly be holding a job fair.
Elon Musk also responded on Monday morning to a post on X, suggesting that Tesla is “thinking about” building a U.S.-based solar Gigafactory in order to help support increased power needs with AI growth, and to bolster domestic solar production.
Tesla is building a new UFO-inspired Supercharger in the heart of Alien country
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Tesla driver walks away from major accident with minor injuries
The driver sustained only minor injuries, and the exact cause of the crash remains under investigation.

The driver of a Tesla Model Y survived and walked away from a harrowing accident on Monday in California, only sustaining minor injuries despite the vehicle being impaled by a guardrail.
On Monday morning around 4:34 a.m., the Los Banos division of the California Highway Patrol (CHP) responded to the accident on I-5 near Panoche Road, involving a 23-year-old in a Tesla Model Y. According to a post on social media, the driver veered off the road for unknown reasons in the northbound lane, before crashing directly into the guardrail and impaling the vehicle.
You can read the full message and photos from Los Banos CHP below, as were shared in a Facebook post on Monday afternoon.
This morning a Tesla model y was traveling in the #1 northbound lane of I-5 north of Panoche Rd. For unknown reasons driver allowed V-1 to veer off the roadway, travel through a dirt center divide, and crashed into the fixed metal guardrail. Lucky for the driver he only sustained minor injuries and was able to walk away. Driving a vehicle requires 100% attention to the road. Avoid distractions and focus on driving.

Credit: CHP Los Banos (via Facebook)

Credit: CHP Los Banos (via Facebook)

Credit: CHP Los Banos (via Facebook)
In a statement to SFGate, CHP officer Myles Anderson said that the driver only sustained minor injuries, while no arrests are made and drugs and alcohol are not suspected to have been involved. The report also notes that Tesla’s “cruise control and lane assistance features” were activated, according to Anderson. However, it’s not entirely clear if this is referring to Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD), or to the cruise control and lane assist features baked into Autopilot.
At the time of writing, CHP has not yet responded to Teslarati’s request for clarification and additional details on the matter.
Tesla Crash Safety Ratings across its lineup: pic.twitter.com/ny30R7ceji
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 1, 2025
READ MORE ON TESLA SAFETY: Tesla rolls out crucial new safety feature aimed at saving children
The news comes after Tesla has touted its vehicles as incredibly safe for many years. In December, for example, the company highlighted receiving top safety scores from regulators on four different continents throughout the world, including from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety (IIHS) in the U.S.
Tesla has also listed the goal of making its vehicles the safest on the road throughout the years, both in the overall design of its vehicles and in its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) programs.
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