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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely

(NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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3 years ago

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In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.

The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”

The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.

First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.

Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.

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Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.

Starship S20 recently aced its first six-Raptor static fire. (SpaceX)
Super Heavy B4 currently has 29 functional Raptor engines installed. (SpaceX)

Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”

Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.

SpaceX says Starship will launch the next generation of Starlink satellites

For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.

This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.

Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Here’s where Waymo is launching autonomous robotaxis next

Waymo has its sights set on three new U.S. cities in the months to come.

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14 hours ago

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March 25, 2025

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Credit: Waymo

Google parent company Waymo has announced plans to bring its self-driving robotaxis to yet another U.S. city, adding to the list of those it plans to deploy the service to in the next several months.

On Tuesday, Waymo announced in a press release that it will be bringing its autonomous ride-hailing vehicles to Washington D.C. in 2026, after it recently announced plans to start deploying the services in Atlanta, Georgia, and Miami, Florida, sometime in 2025. The D.C. services will utilize the Waymo One app, unlike some of the cities which will roll out through a partnership agreement.

“Waymo One is making fully autonomous driving a reality for millions of people across the U.S.” said Tekedra Mawakana, Waymo Co-CEO. “We’re excited to bring the comfort, consistency, and safety of Waymo One to Washingtonians, those who work and play in the city every day, and the millions of people from around the world who travel to the District every year.”

The company says it plans to continue working closely with legislators on regulations needed to operate driverless vehicles in D.C. Additionally, Waymo says it’s currently operating over 200,000 fully autonomous, paid driverless ride-hails per week, as Tesla and others aim to enter the commercial robotaxi space in the coming months.

READ MORE ON WAYMO: Ex-Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla, Cybercab: ‘They’re a car company with a driver-assist system’

“I’ve experienced firsthand how safely the Waymo Driver operates around pedestrians, cyclists, and other vulnerable road users,” writes Jonathan Adkins, the CEO of the Governors Highway Safety Association. “Waymo has worked with GHSA and our first responder network as they’ve expanded their service, always putting safety first. As someone who walks to work almost every day, I’m excited to share the road with Waymo in Washington, D.C.”

Waymo also recently launched its robotaxi services will deploy in a partnership with Uber in Austin, Texas, where Tesla also has a so-called Gigafactory and plans to roll out its own robotaxi services later this year. The company currently operates paid driverless ride-hailing or early testing in the following cities, primarily in the U.S.:

The news also comes as Tesla aims to roll out its first unsupervised drives with its in-house Full Self-Driving (FSD) software this summer, along with rolling out initial robotaxi ride-hailing services. While the company doesn’t currently operate any paid ride-hailing like Waymo One, the company’s vehicles can generate real-time training data from drivers with FSD Supervised engaged.

Waymo study analyzes collisions with vulnerable road users

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Tesla Superchargers open to Hyundai’s EVs in the U.S.

Hyundai and Genesis are the latest brands to gain access to Tesla’s charging network.

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16 hours ago

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March 25, 2025

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Tesla’s Superchargers are now officially open to Hyundai’s electric vehicles (EVs) across the U.S., adding to the wave of auto brands that can now charge on the once-exclusive network.

In a press release on Tuesday, Hyundai announced that owners of the Kona electric, Ioniq hatchback, Ioniq 5, Ioniq 5 N, and Ioniq 6, can charge at Tesla Superchargers in the U.S. using a CCS to NACS adapter, which the company is offering complimentary to owners. The news is set to give access to roughly 20,000 Superchargers in the U.S., as Tesla continues to roll out access to non-Tesla EV brands across the industry.

Hyundai says that those who purchased their EVs prior to January 31, 2025 will begin receiving emails on how to claim the free NACS adapters starting the week of April 7. The news also comes after Hyundai was the first automaker to debut a native NACS port with the Ioniq 5, beginning late last year.

READ MORE ON HYUNDAI: Hyundai dives into the robotaxi business with TX-based startup

“Starting today, more Hyundai EV customers will have access to 20,000 Tesla Superchargers across North America, doubling their fast-charging options,” says Olabisi Boyle, Hyundai North America’s SVP of product planning and mobility strategy. “This move improves the public charging experience by giving our customers even more choice. It’s a vital part of our commitment to ease America’s transition to electric vehicle ownership.”

Currently, the news only applies to Superchargers in the U.S., though one spokesperson from the automaker told Teslarati that more details are expected to come about the launch of access in Canada later this year.

Tesla now lists Hyundai, and its subsidiary Genesis, on its website as EV brands that are able to charge at its Superchargers, along with several others which have been added in the past several months such as Polestar, Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, Lucid, and Rivian, among others.

Hyundai also had record auto sales in the U.S. in 2024, with general retail sales up 4 percent and EV sales up 13 percent year over year.

Hyundai prepares for Trump’s tariffs with billion-dollar investment in the United States

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s simple message to vandals

Published

16 hours ago

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March 25, 2025

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Justin Pacheco, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a simple and straightforward message to the vandals who continue to damage cars, showrooms, and Superchargers that the company and its owners utilize during an All-Hands meeting last week.

For the first time, Tesla and Musk broadcasted on X an All-Hands meeting the company held with its employees.

It seemed to be a justified response to skeptics and investors who have said that Musk has spent more time worrying about the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) than Tesla.

During the meeting, Musk showed the company’s roadmap for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 and aimed to resolve any sort of skepticism regarding his commitment. He told the employees to “hang onto their stock,” and commented on Tesla’s future impact:

“It’s very difficult like for people in the stock market, especially those that look in the rearview mirror — which is most people — to imagine a future where suddenly a 10 million vehicle fleet has five to ten times the usefulness. It’s so profound and there’s no comparison with anything in the past that it does not compute. But it will compute in the future.”

However, Musk did not stop there. He also had a message for those who have gone out of their way to key, damage, and sometimes even destroy Tesla vehicles and showrooms.

Several locations have been hit with gunfire, Molotov cocktails, and other things, while owners are reporting petty vandalism like keying and slashing tires more frequently now than ever.

Musk’s message to the vandals was simple:

“This is psycho. Stop being psycho!”

He continued:

“If you read the news, it feels like, you know, Armageddon. It’s like, I can’t walk past the TV without seeing a Tesla on fire. Like, what’s going on? Some people, it’s like, listen, I understand if you don’t wanna buy our product, but you don’t have to burn it down. That’s a bit unreasonable.”

Tesla’s biggest haters have continued to spew violence toward the company and owners of its cars, with some even putting on bumper stickers that read things like “I bought this before Elon went crazy!” to hopefully divert attackers.

The company also has the help of the federal government. The FBI has already established a task force to help investigate instances of vandalism and violence against Tesla. Additionally, President Trump has said attacks against the company are being considered as domestic terrorism.

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