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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely
In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.
The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”
The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.
First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.
Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.
Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.
Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”
Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.
For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.
This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.
Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.
If a severe global recession were to dry up capital availability / liquidity while SpaceX was losing billions on Starlink & Starship, then bankruptcy, while still unlikely, is not impossible.
GM & Chrysler went BK last recession.
“Only the paranoid survive.” – Grove— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 30, 2021
News
Tesla China rolls out Model Y L V2L adapter, and it’s free for early owners
Tesla China announced the rollout of the Model Y L’s AC external power adapter on social media platforms such as Weibo.
Tesla China has released a useful new accessory for the Model Y L, and it is free for some owners. With the accessory, the Model Y L effectively becomes a giant power bank that owners can use to power appliances when they are camping, or if their homes are hit by a power outage.
Tesla Model Y L V2L adapter
Tesla China announced the rollout of the Model Y L’s AC external power adapter on social media platforms such as Weibo. As per the product’s advertisement, the Model Y L could provide up to 2,200W of power with its adapter, allowing it to support numerous appliances on the go. Of course, but could also be used to charge devices during power outages.
Tesla China notes that the adapter’s current is 220V, and it also features an IP44 protection grade. Tesla notes that the adapter could operate at temperatures between -30℃ ~ +50℃. The Model Y L’s V2L functionality would not work if the vehicle’s battery is less than 10%, however.
Tesla China’s official shop is selling its AC external power adapter for a reasonable price. The product could be purchased for RMB599, which is equivalent to $85. That’s a great price for an accessory that could make car camping sessions several times more convenient.
Free for early Model Y L owners
While the Model Y L’s AC external power adapter is priced reasonably at the Tesla China shop, the accessory is available for free for early owners of the extended wheelbase six-seat all-electric crossover. This was highlighted in a message that Tesla China reportedly sent to owners of the vehicle.
“Your Tesla account is eligible for a free Model Y L dedicated AC external power adapter. Please log in to the online store to add the adapter to your cart. Once the system verifies it correctly, the price will automatically change to 0 yuan before placing the order. We will send it to you via express delivery subsequently.
“This free qualification is only for the first owner of the Model YL who did not receive an AC external power adapter at pickup, valid until February 28, 2026. Failure to place an order upon expiration will be considered as a waiver of eligibility. If there is a temporary shortage of goods, please be patient and we will reschedule the replenishment by the end of January 2026,” Tesla China wrote.
News
Tesla Cybertruck and Model 3 program manager steps down
The now-former executive played a central role in several of Tesla’s key milestones.
Siddhant Awasthi, Tesla’s Program Manager for the Cybertruck and Model 3, has announced his departure after eight years with the company. Starting as an intern, Awasthi played a central role in several of Tesla’s key milestones, from the ramp-up of the Model 3 and Giga Shanghai to the launch of the long-awaited Cybertruck.
From intern to program leader
In a social media post, Awasthi described leaving Tesla as “one of the hardest decisions” of his life. He credited CEO Elon Musk, Tesla’s leadership team, and his colleagues for helping turn ambitious ideas into tangible vehicles. During his tenure, Awasthi contributed to Tesla’s global expansion and the evolution of its vehicle electronics and wireless systems, culminating in the Cybertruck’s long-anticipated rollout in late 2023.
He noted the intensity and innovation of his Tesla years, calling the experience “a thrilling journey” that shaped his career before the age of 30. “It’s been an absolute privilege,” he wrote, adding that working with “rockstar colleagues” made even the most demanding days worthwhile.
Tesla’s leadership transitions
Awasthi’s departure comes as Tesla continues to scale global operations and prepare for major product updates, including next-gen vehicle platforms and software-driven improvements. Despite stepping away, Awasthi voiced confidence in Tesla’s future. “I’m confident Tesla will nail its next big mission,” he said, highlighting his belief in the company’s capacity to deliver breakthrough products and improve safety for drivers worldwide.
“This decision wasn’t easy, especially with so much exciting growth on the horizon. Tesla vehicles are incredibly complex systems that often don’t get the credit they deserve, but I’ve witnessed firsthand how they’ve changed lives—for our customers, my friends, and my family—adding real value and, above all, improving safety. I’m confident Tesla will nail its next big mission (especially after last week), and I’m truly excited for the next chapter of my life,” the former Tesla executive wrote.
News
Tesla is launching a crazy new Rental program with cheap daily rates
This week, Tesla launched its in-house Rental program that will give people a vehicle for between three to seven days, with prices varying and starting at just $60 per day.
Tesla is launching a crazy new Rental program with cheap daily rates, giving people the opportunity to borrow a vehicle in the company’s lineup with an outrageous number of perks.
This week, Tesla launched its in-house Rental program that will give people a vehicle for between three to seven days, with prices varying and starting at just $60 per day.
However, there are additional perks that make it a really great deal, including Free Supercharging and Free Full Self-Driving (Supervised) for the duration of the rental.
There are no limits on mileage or charging, although the terms do not allow you to leave the state you are renting.
Tesla wrote in an email advertising the program:
“Rent a Tesla and see how it makes every errand, commute, and road trip more fun. While it’s yours, try Full Self-Driving (Supervised) and control and monitor your vehicle with the Tesla app.
Schedule your rental for three to seven days starting at $60 per day (plus taxes and fees) and charge for free at any Tesla-owned Supercharger.
Order your own Tesla within seven days of your rental to get up to a $250 credit toward your purchase.”
This is a great opportunity that will convince MANY people to make the jump.
All your concerns about switching are answered within two days. It’s easier than owning a gas car ever has been. https://t.co/QayTf6YVbw pic.twitter.com/TCHqfTRpes
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 8, 2025
Tesla has long adopted the mentality that butts in seats will sell cars, and for the most part, it is a great strategy. Driving a Tesla is different from owning and driving a combustion engine vehicle; it truly feels as if you are in a car from the past when you get back in an ICE car.
This strategy could be looked at as more of a way for people to experience Tesla ownership than anything.
Although some might use it as a typical rental program that will see it be a cool way to drive without putting miles on a personal car, most will use it as the 48-hour test drive was designed for, which is a short-term way to experience EV ownership.
Tesla is only offering this program at a handful of locations currently, including San Diego and Costa Mesa, California.
Tesla China rolls out Model Y L V2L adapter, and it’s free for early owners
Tesla Cybertruck and Model 3 program manager steps down
Tesla is launching a crazy new Rental program with cheap daily rates
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