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Investor's Corner

What to Expect from Ford’s Q4 2021 Earnings Call Today

Credit: Ford Motor Company

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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) will report its Q4 2021 Earnings today. The automaker is in the midst of a massive shift to electrification, surged by billions of dollars in investments and a reputation as one of the most successful legacy automotive companies to turn to EVs in a changing sector so far. Ford’s Earnings Call is set to begin at 4:05 PM EST today. Here’s what to expect.

Wall Street Consensus

Wall Street expectations predict that Ford will post a profit of .45 cents per share and an increase in revenue to $35.5 billion. The estimates are courtesy of Refinitiv, a global provider of financial market data and infrastructure. Increases in EPS are attributed to Ford’s improved semiconductor situation. As noted by GM earlier this week in their Q4 Earnings Call, CEO Mary Barra believes shortages in semiconductor availability will decrease. By Q3 and Q4, Barra said that “we’re going to be really starting to see the semiconductor constraints diminish.”

Ford was affected by the semiconductor shortage, as was every automotive company on the planet. However, there is an indication from several companies and sector analysts that the issues regarding chip shortages could subside by late 2022, which will only provide positive benefits for the electrification industry as more vehicles can be delivered due to a plentiful chip and semiconductor supply.

Ford’s Farley commits to 600k units in 22 months: ‘I think we’re one of the first to scale’

Growth

Ford has already outlined tremendous growth targets on behalf of CEO Jim Farley. Farley committed Ford to several increased production capacity plans, one for the F-150 Lightning and one for the Mustang Mach-E. Additionally, Farley said Ford should be able to deliver 600,000 electric vehicles in 22 months, citing that he feels the company could be the first legacy automaker to scale EVs.

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Ford’s electrification switch has already contributed to a strong shift in powertrain choice. Ford saw growth overall in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021, but most of the growth was due to its electrification options. With the F-150 Lightning order bank opening up in January, pre-order holders were able to finalize their trim and package level for Ford’s introductory electric truck.

According to Refinitiv, analysts believe Ford will earn between $1.54 and $2.35 EPS on revenue of $147.5 billion.

Ford’s stock price has increased substantially since Farley took the CEO position in 2020. The automaker recently achieved a $100 billion valuation due to the increase.

Rivian

CNBC notes that some analysts may have skewed forecasts if they did not pay attention to Ford’s financing adjustments that it revealed last month. Ford stated that it made $8.2 billion on its investment in Rivian. The gains occurred when the company went public.

“The company also reclassified a $900 million profit on its equity investment in Rivian to a special item which will impact the company’s full-year adjusted earnings guidance,” CNBC wrote in its synopsis of Ford’s Earnings Call.

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Analysts Consensus

Dan Ives, an analyst for Wedbush, said, “Huge step in the right direction as Farley doubling down on EV vision. We believe Ford is in the midst of massive EV transformation led by Electric F-150.”

Additionally, Philippe Houchois of Jeffries stated, “Ford is back, with strong earnings and a repaired balance sheet. Shares have also rerated on recovered earnings that now approach cyclical highs.”

Disclosure: Joey Klender is not a Ford Stockholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s new $29B Tesla stock award gets strange synopsis from governance firm

Did CGI not realize that Tesla Shareholders supported Musk being paid not once, but twice?

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elon musk speaking
Credit: TED

Elon Musk was recently awarded around $29 billion in Tesla stock as the company’s Board of Directors is attempting to get its CEO paid after his original pay package was denied twice by the Delaware Chancery Court.

But a new and strange synopsis from the Corporate Governance Institute (CGI) says the award is potentially a strength move to “endorse the will of a powerful CEO.” The problem is, in the same sentence, the firm said the new award brings up a “question of whether the board exists to steward a company in the interests of all stakeholders.”

The problem with their new analysis of Musk’s pay package is that shareholders voted twice on Musk’s original pay package of $56 billion. They voted to give Musk that sum on two separate occasions.

Musk’s original $56 billion pay package was approved by shareholders twice; once in 2018 and once again last year. Last year’s vote was in response to Delaware Chancery Court Kathaleen McCormick’s decision to revoke the “unfathomable sum” from Musk.

Shareholders still showed support for Musk getting paid. Tesla said in its new award to the CEO that this is a way to give him compensation for the first time in seven years.

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CGI said in its note (via TipRanks):

“When a board builds its strategy around a single individual, it creates a concentration risk, not just operationally, but culturally and ethically. If that individual becomes a source of volatility, the company becomes fragile by design.”

What’s strange with this type of narrative is the fact that Tesla’s valuation has skyrocketed with Musk at the helm. Go back to 2020, and the stock is up over 200 percent. Since Musk’s $56 billion pay package was introduced in 2018, shares are up well over 1,000 percent.

Tesla engineer explains why Elon Musk deserves new pay package

Musk’s 2018 pay package was also not awarded to him without performance-based incentives. He was required to reach certain growth goals, all of which were accomplished through the launch of new vehicles and the advancements of its driver-assistance suites, like Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.

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It is tough to agree with CGI’s perception of Musk’s new pay plan, especially as it is much less than what shareholders voted on twice. Musk deserves to be paid for his contributions to Tesla.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.’”

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The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

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He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Elon Musk

Tesla stock gets crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk

Musk says this is what it would take to be a millionaire from a Tesla investment right now.

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A red Tesla Roadster driving around a turn
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got a crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk recently, as the future of the company seems to be moving more toward AI, autonomy, and robotics, and away from automotive, which is what it has traditionally been recognized as.

Over the past few years, as Tesla has prioritized its Full Self-Driving suite, its rollout of a dedicated Robotaxi program, and the development of the Optimus bot, the company has gained a new reputation from analysts.

It was always looked at as a stock with tremendous potential by many Wall Street firms, some more than others.

The most bullish analysts, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, believe the company will eventually reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation and a share price of over $2,000. Her $2,600 price target does not include any contributions of Optimus. Instead, it leans on Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi.

Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

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Based on where the company is now, there are a lot of potential catalysts. The Robotaxi expansion, as well as affordable vehicles, its prowess in AI and Robotics, and its powerful energy division are all arguments for investment.

One X user said that a $150,000 investment in Tesla right now would likely make you a millionaire. Musk said he thinks that sentiment is “probably correct.”

He’s echoed this belief in recent earnings calls, including the one for Q2, which happened in July:

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“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

Tesla is trading at $316.50 at the time of writing, and has a market cap of just under $1 trillion.

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