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Investor's Corner

General Motors emphasizing faster electric vehicle launches after positive 2021 earnings

Credit: Chevrolet

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General Motors (NYSE: GM) is gearing up for a major shift in 2022 thanks to its evolving electric vehicle program, planning for record profit levels that could surge the company into a more well-rounded placement in an increasingly competitive sector. The automaker is preparing for faster vehicle launches, according to CEO Mary Barra, who said more models would come to the market at a quicker pace. GM reported its Earnings for Q4 and its guidance for 2022 last night, sharing expansive details for the coming years, including new models, production plans and start dates, and more information regarding GM’s Cruise investment.

In general terms, General Motors reported a strong Q4 and Full Year 2021 in terms of financials. GM’s 2021 full-year earnings included a net income of $10.019 billion, a net income margin of 7.9 percent, and revenue of over $127 billion, a $4.5 billion increase from 2020. For Q4, GM had a weaker quarter than it did in the same period in 2020. The company reported $33.584 billion in revenue for Q4 ’21, which is nearly $4 billion less than Q4 ’20. Net income also decreased, but the full-year figures and profits undoubtedly outshine the losses for the quarter.

“For the full year, we generated $127 billion in revenue, $14.3 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 11.3% EBIT-adjusted margin, $7.07 in EPS diluted adjusted, and $2.6 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow,” GM CFO Paul Jacobson said. “In the fourth quarter, we generated $34 billion in revenue, $2.8 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 8.5% EBIT-adjusted margin, $1.35 in EPS diluted adjusted, and $6.4 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow. Free cash flow in the quarter was largely driven by working capital rewind as we were able to complete and wholesale over 80,000 vehicles that had previously been built without certain components, as well as dividends from GM Financial.”

GM’s Earnings Call was the highlight of the evening as it shed new light on the automaker’s planned expansion of its electric vehicle lineup. “We also recognize that we need to launch more EVs faster,” CEO Mary Barra said during the call. GM plans to launch deliveries of the Cadillac LYRIQ in “less than 60 days.” The LYRIQ will join the GMC Hummer EV, which recently started deliveries, as GM’s two newest electric vehicles for consumer use. In the commercial sector, GM said that production of the BrightDrop EV600 will begin late this year at the company’s CAMI Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada. The automaker said that the site currently has a production capacity of 30,000 vehicles and should be doubled by mid-decade.

GMC Hummer EV sports its massive size alongside full-size SUV

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GM said that the Silverado, Equinox, and Blazer EVs will all begin deliveries in 2023. The three vehicles will contribute to GM’s plan to deliver 400,000 EVs in North America in 2022 and 2023. These plans are supplemented by battery cell and assembly capacity investments in Michigan, which were recently announced. These new facilities “will give [GM] more than 1 million units of EV capacity in North America by the end of 2025, and this includes 600,000 full-size trucks,” Barra added.

Interestingly, Barra held high regard for Cruise, a fully-autonomous ride-sharing company with investors such as GM, Honda, Softbank, Microsoft, and Walmart. Barra said that riding in a Cruise vehicle a couple of weeks ago was “the highlight of my career as an engineer and as the leader of General Motors.”

“It’s like having an experienced and attentive driver behind the wheel,” Barra said. “Now, as Cruise announced this morning, it is inviting members of the public to sign up for their own driverless rides through a waitlist on the Cruise website. This is the first truly driverless ride-hail service offered to members of the public in a dense urban environment. To maximize its learnings, Cruise will prioritize use cases that are a natural fit for autonomous ride-sharing.”

Barra believes that the first paid rides for Cruise could generate $50 billion by the end of the 2020s.

Semiconductor Forecast

“We saw improved semiconductor availability in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, which enabled us to increase our wholesale sequentially while substantially reducing our inventory of vehicles built without certain components,” Jacobson added. GM expects semiconductor availability to improve throughout 2022, reporting that the company has seen stabilization in the semiconductor environment. This leads GM to believe that it can reach a “normalized run rate toward the beginning of the third quarter [2022] with a target of around 800,000 units in North America on a quarterly basis.” This figure includes GM’s combustion engine vehicles.

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Questions from Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner prompted Barra and other GM executives to give more information regarding their opinions of the semiconductor shortage and when it could begin to subside. Barra believes that, by the time Q3 and Q4 2022 roll around, “we’re going to be really starting to see the semiconductor constraints diminish.”

Analyst synopsis

GM’s Earnings Call was strong, giving investors more to be excited about in the way of its EV project and ability to avoid semiconductor issues. “We are big believers in the GM EV strategy as it’s all about converting 10%-15% of its customers to EVs by 2025 with 30 new EV models,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told us. “There are clear challenges, however, with massive resources dedicated towards EVs, we view this as the right move at the right time for Barra & Co.” In terms of keeping up with competitors, namely industry leader Tesla, Ives believes battery tech and GM’s exclusive Ultium platform is the roadmap to success for the Detroit company. “Ultium is the foundational piece of GM’s battery strategy and key to keep up in this EV arms race with Tesla leading the charge,” Ives added.

Ives has a “Buy” rating on GM stock with an $85 price target. Ives is ranked 59 out of 7,776 analysts on TipRanks.

GM shares were down 3.43 percent at the time of writing, trading at $52.22 per share.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is not a GM Shareholder.

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I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Quotes provided by the Motley Fool.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.

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elon musk side profile
Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.

It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.

Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.

He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.

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Musk replied, basically confirming it:

Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.

AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.

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It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.

The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.

But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’

The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.

On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.

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The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.

Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.

Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.

Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.

Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it

With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.

Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets price target boost, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.

Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’

Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.

He wrote:

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“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”

Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.

Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.

He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:

“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”

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Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”

Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.

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