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LaunchPad: Falcon Heavy ready to go for commercial launch debut

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This is a free preview of LaunchPad, one of Teslarati’s member-only launch briefing newsletters. Before each SpaceX launch, I’ll give you an inside look of what to expect and share amazing photos and on-the-ground details after the launch. Become a member today receive all of Teslarati’s newsletters.

SpaceX launch technicians and engineers have officially completed the integration and static fire testing of the second Falcon Heavy rocket ever, nearing the end of preflight preparations for the vehicle’s critical commercial launch debut. 

Carrying the commercial communications satellite Arabsat 6A, the rocket will be tasked with placing the massive spacecraft into a high-energy geostationary orbit. After a combination of hurdles and conflicting priorities conspired to delay Arabsat 6A’s launch from mid-2018 to February, March, and eventually, April of 2019, both the spacecraft and rocket are nearly ready to go. If all goes as planned, SpaceX will also complete the first successful launch and near-simultaneous landings of three independent rocket boosters, preparing two of the three boosters for reuse on a launch that could happen as early as June 2019.

When: 6:35 pm EDT, 22:35 UTC (click for your time), April 10th
What: Arabsat 6A, communications satellite, ~6000 kg (13,200 lb)
Where: Pad 39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida
Boosters: B1052.1, B1053.1, B1055.1
Recovery: Yes; drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) & LZ-1/2
Weather: 80% GO, 4/10

SpaceX technicians work to integrate the assembled Falcon Heavy first and second stages to the transporter/erector (T/E) ahead of a static fire test on April 5th. (SpaceX)

Falcon 9 Block 5, meet Falcon Heavy

  • With this Falcon Heavy, SpaceX has effectively built – once again – a center stage that is nearly its own rocket, much like the tortured development of the first vehicle’s center stage can be blamed for a lot of its years of delays. 
    • Based on Falcon 9 V1.2’s Block 3 iteration, Falcon Heavy Flight 1’s center core was effectively outdated a year before it launched, and Falcon 9 Block 5 debuted just three months after its first and last launch.
  • Combined with the center core’s untimely demise when it crashed into the Atlantic after running out of engine starter, the now 14 months separating Flight 1 and Flight 2 of Falcon Heavy can be explained by the rocket’s delayed path to the launch site.
    • By the time the first Falcon Heavy’s main components were all present in at the launch site, SpaceX was already building Block 5 rockets and was as few as three months away from completely transitioning its Hawthorne, CA factory to Block 5. 
    • Due to the extensive changes in production incorporated into Block 5, this was effectively a no-turning-back deal where the cost of transitioning back was simply a non-starter.
    • By the time Falcon Heavy had launched, and its center core had smashed itself to pieces on the Atlantic Ocean surface, it was far too late to begin producing a replacement copy. One step further, the process of ramping up Block 5 production had been slowed significantly by the drastic changes made across the board, taking SpaceX to the edge of production-related launch delays over the course of 2018.
  • Put simply, building two side boosters and a relatively boutique Falcon Heavy center core – all three of which would be inextricably tied together for the foreseeable future – was not a practical option when three separate Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters could instead support 6-12+ launches over a period of six or so months.

(Hopefully) the first of many

  • In the nominal event that SpaceX’s second Falcon Heavy launch is an unqualified success, it’s entirely possible that the doors to new markets could be opened as the world and its many spacefaring customers begin to contemplate the existence of an affordable super-heavy-lift launch vehicle – the first of its kind.
    • On the outside, Falcon Heavy can begin to look like a bit of a boondoggle from a business perspective. It will have probably cost no less than $750M-$1B to develop, including the Block 5 modifications needed, and likely brought in less than $100M in gross revenue. It’s a black hole that SpaceX currently dumps huge volumes of cash into, in other words.
    • However, this sort of observation is far too pessimistic and gives SpaceX far too little credit after some additional careful analysis. As of today, SpaceX has six public launch contracts for FH, two of which are from the USAF/NRO and likely valued around $130M-$150M.
    • Purely commercial contracts for Falcon Heavy will probably be closer to $90M-100M, more than competitive with rockets like Atlas 5, Delta IV Heavy, Ariane 5, and other future vehicles like ULA’s Vulcan.
  • Within ~12 months, the USAF will likely have awarded 10-16 additional launch contracts to some combo of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy as part of the latest EELV (now NSSL) acquisition phase. Assuming SpaceX is one of the two providers chosen, Falcon Heavy could receive numerous additional contracts for heavy military satellites.
    • Additionally, NASA is now seriously considering Falcon Heavy for the launch of flagship missions like Europa Clipper and (maybe, maybe not) even Orion missions to the Moon.
    • Falcon Heavy could also be the only vehicle in the world with the performance needed for a number of other missions that could arise from the Lunar Gateway, including launching actual segments of the space station and launching deep space cargo missions resupply said Gateway.
  • Only ULA’s Delta IV Heavy can marginally compete with Falcon Heavy’s performance, but it typically costs no less than $300M per launch, a 2-3X surcharge over SpaceX’s offering. Due to the utter and complete lack of competition from both a price and performance perspective, SpaceX could essentially have the heavy life market cornered for something like 48-60+ months.
    • Offering a unique product with potentially high demand and no real alternative, SpaceX would not be out of place to raise its profit margins significantly, helping to rapidly pay back the capital investment it put into Falcon Heavy’s extended development.
    • Regardless, the future of Falcon Heavy has every right to be even more thrilling and diverse than the already impressive Falcon 9.
The above photos show HellasSat-4/SaudiGeoSat-1, a nearly identical sister satellite to Arabsat 6A, both based on Lockheed Martin’s modernized A2100 satellite bus. At the bottom, a photo from the 45th Space Wing shows off what appears to be a conspicuously flight-proven nose cone, potentially taken from one of Falcon Heavy Flight 1’s two side boosters. (Lockheed Martin/45th Space Wing)

You can watch Falcon Heavy’s commercial launch debut live here on April 10th at 6:35 pm EDT (22:35 UTC). We’ll see you after the launch at LandingZone with exclusive photos and on-the-ground details of Falcon Heavy’s center core recovery.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Rivian unveils self-driving chip and autonomy plans to compete with Tesla

Rivian, a mainstay in the world of electric vehicle startups, said it plans to roll out an Autonomy+ subscription and one-time purchase program, priced at $49.99 per month and $2,500 up front, respectively, for access to its self-driving suite.

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Credit: Rivian

Rivian unveiled its self-driving chip and autonomy plans to compete with Tesla and others at its AI and Autonomy Day on Thursday in Palo Alto, California.

Rivian, a mainstay in the world of electric vehicle startups, said it plans to roll out an Autonomy+ subscription and one-time purchase program, priced at $49.99 per month and $2,500 up front, respectively, for access to its self-driving suite.

CEO RJ Scaringe said it will learn and become more confident and robust as more miles are driven and it gathers more data. This is what Tesla uses through a neural network, as it uses deep learning to improve with every mile traveled.

He said:

“I couldn’t be more excited for the work our teams are driving in autonomy and AI. Our updated hardware platform, which includes our in-house 1600 sparse TOPS inference chip, will enable us to achieve dramatic progress in self-driving to ultimately deliver on our goal of delivering L4. This represents an inflection point for the ownership experience – ultimately being able to give customers their time back when in the car.”

At first, Rivian plans to offer the service to personally-owned vehicles, and not operate as a ride-hailing service. However, ride-sharing is in the plans for the future, he said:

“While our initial focus will be on personally owned vehicles, which today represent a vast majority of the miles to the United States, this also enables us to pursue opportunities in the rideshare space.”

The Hardware

Rivian is not using a vision-only approach as Tesla does, and instead will rely on 11 cameras, five radar sensors, and a single LiDAR that will face forward.

It is also developing a chip in-house, which will be manufactured by TSMC, a supplier of Tesla’s as well. The chip will be known as RAP1 and will be about 50 times as powerful as the chip that is currently in Rivian vehicles. It will also do more than 800 trillion calculations every second.

RAP1 powers the Autonomy Compute Module 3, known as ACM3, which is Rivian’s third-generation autonomy computer.

ACM3 specs include:

  • 1600 sparse INT8 TOPS (Trillion Operations Per Second).
  • The processing power of 5 billion pixels per second.
  • RAP1 features RivLink, a low-latency interconnect technology allowing chips to be connected to multiply processing power, making it inherently extensible.
  • RAP1 is enabled by an in-house developed AI compiler and platform software

As far as LiDAR, Rivian plans to use it in forthcoming R2 cars to enable SAE Level 4 automated driving, which would allow people to sit in the back and, according to the agency’s ratings, “will not require you to take over driving.”

More Details

Rivian said it will also roll out advancements to the second-generation R1 vehicles in the near term with the addition of UHF, or Universal Hands-Free, which will be available on over 3.5 million miles of roadway in the U.S. and Canada.

Rivian will now join the competitive ranks with Tesla, Waymo, Zoox, and others, who are all in the race for autonomy.

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Tesla partners with Lemonade for new insurance program

Tesla recently was offered “almost free” coverage for Full Self-Driving by Lemonade’s Shai Wininger, President and Co-founder, who said it would be “happy to explore insuring Tesla FSD miles for (almost) free.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla owners in California, Oregon, and Arizona can now use Lemonade Insurance, the firm that recently said it could cover Full Self-Driving miles for “almost free.”

Lemonade, which offered the new service through its app, has three distinct advantages, it says:

  • Direct Connection for no telematics device needed
  • Better customer service
  • Smarter pricing

The company is known for offering unique, fee-based insurance rates through AI, and instead of keeping unclaimed premiums, it offers coverage through a flat free upfront. The leftover funds are donated to charities by its policyholders.

On Thursday, it announced that cars in three states would be able to be connected directly to the car through its smartphone app, enabling easier access to insurance factors through telematics:

Tesla recently was offered “almost free” coverage for Full Self-Driving by Lemonade’s Shai Wininger, President and Co-founder, who said it would be “happy to explore insuring Tesla FSD miles for (almost) free.”

The strategy would be one of the most unique, as it would provide Tesla drivers with stable, accurate, and consistent insurance rates, while also incentivizing owners to utilize Full Self-Driving for their travel miles.

Tesla Full Self-Driving gets an offer to be insured for ‘almost free’

This would make FSD more cost-effective for owners and contribute to the company’s data collection efforts.

Data also backs Tesla Full Self-Driving’s advantages as a safety net for drivers. Recent figures indicate it was nine times less likely to be in an accident compared to the national average, registering an accident every 6.36 million miles. The NHTSA says a crash occurs approximately every 702,000 miles.

Tesla also offers its own in-house insurance program, which is currently offered in twelve states so far. The company is attempting to enter more areas of the U.S., with recent filings indicating the company wants to enter Florida and offer insurance to drivers in that state.

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Tesla Model Y gets hefty discounts and more in final sales push

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Model Y configurations are getting hefty discounts and more benefits as the company is in the phase of its final sales push for the year.

Tesla is offering up to $1,500 off new Model Y Standard trims that are available in inventory in the United States. Additionally, Tesla is giving up to $2,000 off the Premium trims of the Model Y. There is also one free upgrade included, such as a paint color or interior color, at no additional charge.

Tesla is hoping to bolster a relatively strong performance through the first three quarters of the year, with over 1.2 million cars delivered through the first three quarters.

This is about four percent under what the company reported through the same time period last year, as it was about 75,000 vehicles ahead in 2024.

However, Q3 was the company’s best quarterly performance of all time, and it surged because of the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which was eliminated in September. The imminent removal of the credit led to many buyers flocking to Tesla showrooms to take advantage of the discount, which led to a strong quarter for the company.

2024 was the first year in the 2020s when Tesla did not experience a year-over-year delivery growth, as it saw a 1 percent slide from 2023. The previous years saw huge growth, with the biggest coming from 2020 to 2021, when Tesla had an 87 percent delivery growth.

This year, it is expected to be a second consecutive slide, with a drop of potentially 8 percent, if it manages to deliver 1.65 million cars, which is where Grok projects the automaker to end up.

Tesla will likely return to its annual growth rate in the coming years, but the focus is becoming less about delivery figures and more about autonomy, a major contributor to the company’s valuation. As AI continues to become more refined, Tesla will apply these principles to its Full Self-Driving efforts, as well as the Optimus humanoid robot project.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

These discounts should help incentivize some buyers to pull the trigger on a vehicle before the year ends. It will also be interesting to see if the adjusted EV tax credit rules, which allowed deliveries to occur after the September 30 cutoff date, along with these discounts, will have a positive impact.

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