93% of Tesla Model 3 buyers will likely upgrade from $35k base, suggests new poll data

No it is not a good idea. see
https://forums.teslarati.com/threads/why-would-anyone-say-no-to-free-supercharging.3718/#post-6696

I’m inclined to agree with that, just my opinion.

The VAST overwhelming majority of us will be charging our cars at home 99% of the time, hopefully either from our own solar, or failing that, preferably “off peak” power in the “wee hours” of the morning.
(The most irresponsible thing you can do from an environmental perspective is get home in the evening and immediately start charging your car when the grid is struggling with the evening peak.)

Then if we do the odd road trip, we want to be able to use a Supercharger to get from A to B, and as long as the cost per kWh is reasonable, I’m more than happy to pay for that. It will still be way cheaper than buying petrol, and we want the facilities to be available, (and we want plenty of them) so basically they need to pay their way. (In our typical vehicle use patterns, I suspect we’d be lucky to use a Supercharger maybe a maximum of six or eight times a year, unless we do a massive cross country trip.)
Q. Why should someone who does roadtrips all the time and who just happpens to live near a Supercharger, get charged for free either all, or even some of the time.
At the very least, there should be a very strict kWh limit, but I’d definitely be happier to have more Superchargers, and pay a fair and reasonable fee for using them.....

Of course someone who wants to use them every day will disagree. :)

However what ICE cars, at any price, come with free petrol (or diesel)?
ie: We NEED a good charging infrastructure, so should expect to pay a fair price for using it.

Cya

You should send this to the model 3 club guys and the teslanomics guy. They seem like good dudes.

Thanks, Johnny, have already posted on the Model3OwnersClub forum and got a few positive responses already. Good idea to also advise @Ben Sullins; as he’s a member here, he may have seen it. Otherwise, this will help! Note he just picked up his Model 3 so he may be on cloud 9 for a while... ;)

I beg to differ. Elon does not need to make a profit on 35k cars. Not this year, not next year. There was no profit made on the first year's production of the roadster and that never stopped people investing.

Sure it would help if the 35k car at least broke even on production costs, but investors know that as production increases to scale and battery costs come down the profit margins will increase because production costs go down. Each year the cost of batteries improves by about 5% and this will become a corporate savings.

Investors know Tesla will eventually be VERY profitable.

Agree, John. Only build I'd make is if they expect a variable margin (which is not profit, I know... ;)) of ~25% on the expected avg. selling price of $42-43k, there is not much left at $35k.

Which again is not a showstopper for the reasons you mentioned and as there probably will only be a minority of orders @ 35k without any option.

Well perhaps, but I did not make the promise to investors, Elon did. I did not make the base price either. I do know more about investors, than I do about electric cars, and investors get grumpy when the business model they invested in fails.

Of course yet we have no indication it will fail.
Today is a good day, a step in the right direction!!

They've only collected data from 6200 deposit holders, and they're not random deposit holders. This sample could lean one way or the other in preferences vs the preferences of all deposit holders.

As for margins on the battery pack, we know Tesla is around $100/kWh. So a software limited pack might have $1000-$2000 worth of battery locked. They're saying they'll have an over 20% profit margin on the Model 3 once they're making 5000 per week, and they mentioned they expect an ASP of $42000, which would give them an average profit of $8400. I think they can afford spending an extra $1000-$2000 on the chance that the buyer might spend $3000+ to unlock it in the future.

They've only collected data from 6200 deposit holders, and they're not random deposit holders. This sample could lean one way or the other in preferences vs the preferences of all deposit holders.

As for margins on the battery pack, we know Tesla is around $100/kWh. So a software limited pack might have $1000-$2000 worth of battery locked. They're saying they'll have an over 20% profit margin on the Model 3 once they're making 5000 per week, and they mentioned they expect an ASP of $42000, which would give them an average profit of $8400. I think they can afford spending an extra $1000-$2000 on the chance that the buyer might spend $3000+ to unlock it in the future.

The sample is useless as it is only the most enthusiastic reservation holders who would be willing to respond to the survey, so it is heavily weighed in favour of upgrades.

If there are 3 battery options the middle option could be a battery size software lock of the largest battery. If it is 2 battery size then there is no way they can afford the software lock on the battery. The cost you quote is for the cells. I imagine you double this cost for actual pack cost. As there will be at least 20% of people who buy who could never afford the upgrade it would be a waste.

The things I most want my Model 3 to have:
*range around 300 miles = big battery
*Memory for electric seat adjustments (my hubby is 10" taller than me)
*panoramic opening sunroof (have loved driving a convertible for the past 13 yrs)
*AWD for range & traction in any climate from snow to mountainous rainforest to city (but I probably could deal with single motor)
*Autopilot because I hate boring interstate drives & accidents are most likely in stop & go traffic.

I'm going to need the battery pack upgrade, the 4 wheel drive, and a winter package. Canada is like that.

March 31 reservation and while I'd love AWD + pretty much a maxed out M3, I know that would
be into middle of next year maybe... so if I can get into a base model this fall (?) I'll do that. Might eventually upgrade to a MS but his at least gets me in the door :)

https://www.change.org/p/tesla-tesla-to-offer-free-supercharging-for-50k-model-3-s

Does this make sense? If so please support.

https://www.change.org/p/tesla-tesla-to-offer-free-supercharging-for-50k-model-3-s

Does this make sense? If so please support.

Done and added first comment.

Well, now we know that 100% of Model 3 buyers will be upgrading from the $35k price this year and possibly well into Jan/Feb. :-P

Well, now we know that 100% of Model 3 buyers will be upgrading from the $35k price this year and possibly well into Jan/Feb. :p

Well, agree it will be a high share... yet 100%? Dunno. There could be a few people who take the standard 220 miles version as is as of 4Q... ;)

Hello Ron (@RFP )!

I do agree with some of your points... that Elon is a visionary, that communications remains a big area for improvement, etc...

Yet, call me an optimist, yet, while I understand the impatience of some, maybe including yourself, who are anxiously waiting for the standard battery, no frills Model 3 announced for $35k, I remain convinced the dream will become reality at some point. Granted, the full $7,500 tax credit will most likely not be available by then, yet the way things are going, $3,750 may still be on the table.

And don’t think I can’t empathize because I am fortunate enough to now drive an S. I was always frustrated with Model 3 anti-selling early on and, to this day, would still be only a Model 3 reservation holder had I not found & negotiated this remarkable deal on Red Dragon, for about what I expected to pay Midnight S≡R≡NITY (my now increasingly hypothetical 3).

Great summer to you too!
Mike

Well, agree it will be a high share... yet 100%? Dunno. There could be a few people who take the standard 220 miles version as is as of 4Q... ;)

Yea, I guess there could be a few employees and current owners that could get them before the end of the year, but I know someone that put in his deposit early morning on the 31st and I think Feb was the earliest for him to get a standard version.

so the data referenced on model3tracker.info is based on only about 6200 records out of 400K. Those who found their way there are obviously more of a car enthusiast so data is not only miniscule but also biased or skewed.

https://www.change.org/p/tesla-tesla-to-offer-free-supercharging-for-50k-model-3-s

Does this make sense? If so please support.

You should send this to the model 3 club guys and the teslanomics guy. They seem like good dudes.

The point is not how many people actually buy the base configuration. The point is that the entire business model is based on the premise that a competitive electric car can be produced PROFITABLY for the average buyer (GM cannot do that). If that cannot be achieved, investors will flee - I know I will sell my stock, even if I buy the car, because the project will ultimately fail.

I beg to differ. Elon does not need to make a profit on 35k cars. Not this year, not next year. There was no profit made on the first year's production of the roadster and that never stopped people investing.

Sure it would help if the 35k car at least broke even on production costs, but investors know that as production increases to scale and battery costs come down the profit margins will increase because production costs go down. Each year the cost of batteries improves by about 5% and this will become a corporate savings.

Investors know Tesla will eventually be VERY profitable.

Given that most of the individuals who are interested in the Model 3, currently drive vehicles that were purchase at or around the base price of the Model 3, would be extremely happy. Personally, since Elon Musk has stated that given the Model 3 size, the battery will go no higher then 75kWh, While that does not mean they cant push 300+ miles like the 100D or P100D's 100 kWh. 215 miles will be the base while the maxed out Model 3 could theoretically be close to 250 - 276 (if your looking at it from the Model S 75 kWh. which is 259).

https://www.change.org/p/tesla-tesla-to-offer-free-supercharging-for-50k-model-3-s
Does this make sense? If so please support.

No it is not a good idea. see
https://forums.teslarati.com/threads/why-would-anyone-say-no-to-free-supercharging.3718/#post-6696

The $35,000.00 price will never be attained by any buyer of a M3 unless the battery pack becomes an accessory...

My favorite model s ad... you know.. their $49,900.00 vehicle...

Should the 35000 base price not be met, the entire Tesla enterprise will collapse.

We know now that this 93% is very misleading. This could be a paint choice but still want the base model.

I ordered 1 year after the initial offering, I'm in another country and have already been given a chance to configure.

They have 400,000 reservations roughly, they've delivered 50,000. I was probably 350,000ish... So I should be 300,000 ish, Remove 50,000 for RHD, 250,000. Assuming North America is the biggest market and will be delivered first, we could remove another 100,000 on the high end. Putting me maybe at 150,000 in line, if they've delivered 50,000. How has number 150,000 received an invite? I think well over 50% want the standard battery.

Should the 35000 base price not be met, the entire Tesla enterprise will collapse.

Not only don't I think so, if the delta would be a couple of grands, I also firmly believe this is a zero chance scenario... Elon would not let that happen.

Now, indeed, I firmly believe that very few people will actually buy Model 3 for 35k, yet that will be their decision, probably based mainly on affordability.

Not only don't I think so, if the delta would be a couple of grands, I also firmly believe this is a zero chance scenario... Elon would not let that happen.

Now, indeed, I firmly believe that very few people will actually buy Model 3 for 35k, yet that will be their decision, probably based mainly on affordability.

The point is not how many people actually buy the base configuration. The point is that the entire business model is based on the premise that a competitive electric car can be produced PROFITABLY for the average buyer (GM cannot do that). If that cannot be achieved, investors will flee - I know I will sell my stock, even if I buy the car, because the project will ultimately fail.

The point is not how many people actually buy the base configuration. The point is that the entire business model is based on the premise that a competitive electric car can be produced PROFITABLY for the average buyer (GM cannot do that). If that cannot be achieved, investors will flee - I know I will sell my stock, even if I buy the car, because the project will ultimately fail.

Well, Samuel, my answer does not change.
T≡SLA will be commercializing 400k Model 3 per year, at an avg selling price - with some options - of $42k and will reportedly yield in excess of 20% gross margin... That's >3.4 billion dollars of gross profit... of course there are large costs and reinvestment needs yet what a strong base!

Well perhaps, but I did not make the promise to investors, Elon did. I did not make the base price either. I do know more about investors, than I do about electric cars, and investors get grumpy when the business model they invested in fails.

So about 3/4 of us want a big battery and 4Wheel drive. This should come as a Zero surprise to anyone who has ever been in a car. I hope Tesla puts this as a "special option" bundle with a reduced price based on the higher volume. I would also like to see a "Canadian package" with a big battery, 4Wheel drive, and cold weather insulation.

By far the most important upgrade to my family is AWD as Colorado is rough on rear wheel drive--darn near worthless in the high country.

Second is more battery capacity, third is supercharging, and hopefully navigation is standard equipment (it should be on EVERY car made). I couldn't care less about auto pilot, sunroofs, leather seats, etc.

Autopilot is dangerous forevermore--too many nuts out there.

I would be very happy if HUD is added as an option. KIA new models have this feature !

Well, agree it will be a high share... yet 100%? Dunno. There could be a few people who take the standard 220 miles version as is as of 4Q... ;)

LoL. Funny to look back at people's predictions only 4.5 months later

LoL. Funny to look back at people's predictions only 4.5 months later

Maybe I meant 4Q18?! :D

Elon why don't you stop the b*llshit and simply produce the $35,000 model 3 that you originally promised us and let people choose what they want ?

Give me a base car with autopilot. I will likely spend after market money on a plastic car wrap, and some colorful seat covers.
(That is exactly what I did on my last car purchase, and I am very pleased with the results.) Living in the sunny South, I have no need for 4 wheel drive, and extended range seems a poor investment at the moment. It's a matter of a couple of years at most, that battery costs will have dropped by about half, so if It takes me that long to get a car built and delivered, the question will be based on different cost assumptions.

[QUOTE="richardch, post: 15602, member: 28134"]Elon why don't you stop the b*llshit and simply produce the $35,000 model 3 that you originally promised us and let people choose what they want ?[/QUOTE]
Because they need to generate critical margins first, with a straightforward production model (i.e. minimal changes) to ensure the company survives this production hell phase.

This is not b/s. It is C/S (common sense...) ;)

Because they need to generate critical margins first, with a straightforward production model (i.e. minimal changes) to ensure the company survives this production hell phase.

This is not b/s. It is C/S (common sense...) ;)

Hello Michael; It's been awhile......... Somehow whether we are well heeled and have S's or X's or whether we are living on a tight budget and are driving cars on the other side of the spectrum, we all know one thing. That is, that Elon was never sharing Tesla's true plan with us. Yes, Tesla has had not uncommon start up problems (we all agree) and the product, even first offs, are quite good and well received.

The issue was and still is that Elon only cares about the big picture and those of us that dreamed of a $35K car with a credit and not thinking of a 2 - 3 year lead time are simply collateral damage. I was thinking the other day about the "reveal" in late March 2016 and reading and thinking later that like the Tucker (also a rather revolutionary) automobile of the late 40's at least one of the 3 cars on stage (red) had a tiny chock block behind a rear wheel as it was just a shell. Additionally, the extended range battery was never part of the presentation but what was in those cars as the standard range battery (their words not mine) is still not available?

Again, my complaint is that we have been willingly somewhat duped! Yes, I will get all the knee-jerk "cancel and get another car if you can't wait or buy a very expensive but excellent X or S and if you can't do that get much less of a car with a Leaf or a Bolt".

That's not the point; which is that truly Elon is a brilliant visionary and engineer. The world is and will be much better because of him. However, he should have put his ego on a diet and subcontracted much of the manufacturing to other automobile companies that had and still have the capacity to significantly reduce production hell. Tucker didn't make it as no one wanted to help him (big business and unions mainly) and Tesla is losing some of its gleam when others would have been thrilled to help him.

Please enjoy your summer...............Ron