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Full Recap of Tesla’s 2015 Annual Shareholder Meeting

At the Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting, chairman Elon Musk touched on a number of subjects, including cars, the GigaFactory, battery storage and space travel.

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Tesla growth chart used at 2015 annual shareholder meeting

Tesla growth chart used at 2015 annual shareholder meeting

During his remarks at the Tesla annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, chairman Elon Musk touched on a wide range of topics from the AutoPilot system, the GigaFactory, residential and utility scale grid storage, and life on Mars. Here’s a synopsis.

Car Stuff

Musk told the meeting that he anticipates sales volume will continue to grow 50% per year, on average, for the next several years. The company has opened a new casting and machining center near the Fremont factory. Moving production functions there has opened up room at the factory to install a new assembly line capable of producing 3 times as many cars as the current line. A new paint facility capable of handling up to 500,000 cars a year has also been installed.

The Model X is undergoing final pre-production tweaking and will start production in “3 to 4 months.” In response to a question, Musk said that mounting the battery pack low in the chassis makes the Model X one of the safest SUV’s on the road. He went on to say that, like the Model S, it will achieve some of the highest crash test ratings of any car on the road.

“[I]t’s turning out to be a really great car. I think the Model X may arguably be a better SUV than the Model S is as a sedan. We want to make sure obviously that some of the key features of the Model X, particularly the Falcon Wing door and the way the second row seats are done …is…just right, and provide true functionality and true value improvements versus just sort of feeling gimmicky. It’s got to be a genuine improvement in utility and aesthetics, so getting those final nuances right for the Model X is what we’re focused on right now.”

When asked about the affordable mass-market Model 3, he said it would be available only with a single motor at first to keep costs down but would be offered in a dual motor version as well.

He did have exciting news about the Supercharger network. The company is fitting solar panels to as many Supercharger locations as possible. He assured the audience that those that could not be converted to solar power would soon get their electricity only from renewable power sources.

Musk  also said the company has created a new liquid cooled charging cord that is significantly thinner and more flexible than the one used now. Not only does liquid cooling make the cable more elegant, it will permit the use of higher powered Supercharger facilities in the future.

He emphasized that the system will continue to expand in North America and other countries to permit Tesla owners to enjoy free long distance driving for life. He did say that owners who use Superchargers for all their daily charging can expect to receive a “note” from the company.

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With regard to the AutoPilot suite of autonomous driving features, Musk indicated that the company is busy testing and upgrading the system. “We’re making gradual progress towards what I’d say is a releasable bit of software. But it is quite a tricky thing and we want to make sure that our testing is exhaustive before we release the software. But if we keep making progress, I think we may be able to get it out to all the access customers which is sort of our public beta program around the end of this month.”

Full implementation is not expected for about 3 years, with a lot depending on how regulators in the US and abroad react to it. He said that the system at this point is intended to function like the auto pilot in airplanes — there to help but not to allow drivers to sleep through their journey to arrive alert and refreshed at their destination…..yet.

Musk admitted that interest in battery swapping was far lower than expected. He indicated that the company is focusing more on improving Supercharger performance and less on building battery swap locations.

Tesla PowerWall

One of the biggest announcements of the day concerns the Tesla PowerWall. Some critics have chirped that the units introduced to great fanfare in April were too small to be worth the cost. “I am very happy to announce that we’ve dramatically increased the power capability of the Powerwall. So it’s actually going to go from having 2 kilowatts steady, 3.3 kilowatt peak to a 7 kilowatt power, 5 kilowatt steady, price is unchanged. So, it basically more than doubled the power output of the Powerpack and the price is going to stay the same.”

The company will prioritize deliveries to people who already have a residential solar system or who are installing one. Why? Because an inverter will be already included in their system, meaning adding a PowerWall will cost only about $3,500 for the unit and about $500 for installation. That’s huge.

But even with that announcement, Musk admitted that the PowerWall may not make economic sense for most customers in the US because the differences between the cost of electricity during a 24 hour period are usually not large enough for there to be a pay back on the cost of the system in a reasonable period of time. He cites Germany, Australia and Hawaii as markets where the PowerWall makes more economic sense.

The company focus is on grid scale storage, which it expects will account for 80% of its stationary battery business. “That’s where the economics are very compelling because there is an important difference between price and cost. The cost to the utilities of between day and night is quite substantial because the power usage is often sort of 2:1 at least if not greater than 2:1, sometimes substantially greater than 2:1 between peak day usage and trough night usage.”

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Musk told the audience that utility companies look favorably on using Tesla battery storage units because they are more compact than what competitors offer, so they can fit into the footprint of existing substations without the need to acquire more land and the permitting issues that may create. He says utilities are just like residential customers — they appreciate that the Tesla units are basically “plug and play” ready, with no hassles or headaches.

The GigaFactory

Musk said the GigaFactory was coming along smoothly, with production expected to begin next year with full capacity expected within 3 years. In response to a question from the audience, he responded, “Our focus right now is just making sure that we build the Gigafactory version one correctly and that’s going to be quite a difficult challenge over the next few years. We’ll have the first part of it active next year but then we want to try to get to full production in roughly three years…that’s going to be quite a challenge. And I think once we get to that point we want to figure out where to put Gigafactory Two and Three.”

He says the GigaFactory will have the capacity to build 50 gigawatt-hours of batteries a year. “And that should allow for 500,000 cars to be produced a year plus have 15 gigawatt-hours left over for stationary. The way it’s looking, demand for stationary is higher than expected, so we’re looking at potentially expanding the output capability of the Gigafactory to meet the higher demand for stationary.”

SpaceX

An audience member asked when SpaceX would be going public and Musk responded that a SpaceX IPO was a long way off, primarily because the stock market is focused on quarterly reports and has an attention span limited to 1 to 2 years maximum. He said the timeline for SpaceX was quite a bit beyond that. Then he dropped this bomb:

“I’m trying to build a city on Mars and that ends up sacrificing profitability for a really long time. I think it would be not super loved by the public markets. I’d expect with SpaceX that we will probably go public once we will have a regular flights to Mars.”

The Take Away

One stockholder asked Elon Musk what his goals for the company are. He gave this answer, which may serve as the overarching statement that underlies everything he and his various companies are attempting to accomplish.

“Our goal at Tesla is pretty straight forward; it’s really to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy and particularly sustainable transport. So in order for humanity to have a good future or for life…we have to figure out how to make that future sustainable, meaning not to have crazy amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere and ultimately get into situation of hydrocarbon scarcity, which would be economically disastrous.

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“So, that’s what we’re focused on. Our primary goal is to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport and then, with the batteries, help the advent of sustainable energy production.”

Quoted material is courtesy of Seeking Alpha transcription service.

 

 

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.3.6 review: a rare regression, but some bright spots

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla released Full Self-Driving version 14.3.6 last week, and after what was potentially one of the best FSD releases in v14.3.5, there has been a bit of a regression. While there are some bright spots, the changes made to v14.3.6 seem to have backtracked some behaviors.

Overall, it is hard to really complain about FSD in any sense; it has revolutionized how I travel literally anywhere. According to my self-driving app, the last time I went a day without using it was 59 days ago.

However, I think it’s also important to recognize when things are just plain bad with FSD. There are times it does truly mind-boggling things, and I’ll dive into those here. Additionally, I only had these issues on local roads, not on highways. Highway operation, generally, is always incredible other than the occasional complaint about speed or left lane camping.

With those things being said, my personal experience may not represent others’ experiences. A handful of people have said they have had a similar experience on v14.3.6, while others have said it is more than normal.

Turning Hesitancy, Inaccuracy

I’ve noticed more inaccuracy turning into multi-lane stretches of road than in any version I can remember. I’ve had at least three instances of FSD turning into a stretch of roadway that has two or more lanes, and not selecting a lane confidently as it has in past versions.

Instead, the car will drive over one of the dashed road lines, and the steering wheel will jerk back and forth before picking the lane. It should be said that it has always picked the correct lane when choosing based on the navigation, but it is still very indecisive. The steering wheel jerking is reminiscent of some of the later versions of v13.

I admit I really hate to see the steering wheel jerking come back. However, I think when Tesla releases v14.3.7, it won’t be present. When there are occurrences of it in FSD versions, it is usually resolved by the following release.

FSD Disregards Manual Turn Signals

This is my biggest bone to pick with FSD other than Navigation issues, but this one seems like it would be such an easy fix.

If Tesla is going to put the word “Supervised” on the end of “Full Self-Driving,” then when I tell the car to do something, it should do it. If I input an increase in speed by pressing the accelerator, the car will immediately respond. It does not disregard my input because it feels it is traveling at the right speed.

FSD should never disobey and turn off turn signals that the driver inputs. Trying to direct the car into the correct lane, I had initiated the left turn signal not once, not twice, but three times, with the car turning it off all three times and continuing in a lane that would end in just one block. The only solution at this point would be to zipper merge.

This goes back to the fact that self-driving’s biggest bottleneck might be rider preference. A zipper merge might have been more than reasonable, might have saved me time that I spent sitting through an additional light cycle, and might be something many drivers would do. I was in no hurry, I traditionally do not try to zipper merge because it feels inconsiderate, and lastly, the car should have just followed my input.

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This caused me to disengage and drive manually the rest of the way home. Sometimes I just do not need FSD to try to pass every car it can at intersections.

Bird Braking is a Thing of the Past

The big complaint with recent versions of Full Self-Driving has been what we’ve coined as “bird braking,” which is when the car will brake suddenly as a bird flies past.

There have been zero issues with this so far in v14.3.6, which is an excellent improvement.

FSD Might Already Be Taking Note of Driver Preferences

Another thing I have noticed over the past few days is that v14.3.6 seems to already be taking my preferences with navigation into account.

This is something that is supposed to be rolling out with the Summer Update, but I have a hunch it’s already present and might have been included in this v14.3.6 build. On Friday, FSD pulled into an entrance to a local convenience store that it had never attempted to go into before.

Typically, I manually pull into this entrance because it avoids heavy cross traffic at the main entrance. FSD has always chosen that congested main entrance.

Additionally, FSD has pulled into my assigned parking spot at my townhouse community on multiple occasions with this release. This is something that used to happen ocassionally, but not consistently.

It also navigated back to the same convenience store last night, drove through crazy cars scrambling to gas pumps, navigated out of the parking lot correctly, drove me home, and, once again, parked in my assigned spot.

As previously stated, this release just seems to have a few things that need to be brought to Tesla’s attention, and also to make others who use FSD aware of some things that I’ve experienced. I look forward to the next release that will remedy these issues, just as Tesla has always done in the past.

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Musk’s massive Terafab project will get final location soon

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk’s massive Terafab project, which will be the first true conglomeration between each of his major entities, is set to get its final location soon, the CEO said on Tesla’s recent earnings call.

“The Terafab, we expect to announce a location soon, and provide more details about our plans in that regard. We’ll leave that to the product, the launch announcement rather than try to squeeze it into an earnings call,” Musk said last Wednesday.

Tesla Terafab set for launch: Inside the $20B AI chip factory that will reshape the auto industry

Terafab was announced by Musk back in March and was essentially a massive, vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing project that would provide all the chips the three companies needed for their AI initiatives without needing third-party companies.

The plant will produce over 1 terawatt of AI compute each year, and will help back up projects like Optimus, Full Self-Driving, and other AI-based projects that Musk’s companies are working on.

In April, less than a month after the project was launched, Intel announced it would join the project, contributing manufacturing expertise and consulting to Terafab as a whole. Intel is one of three chip manufacturers that produce sub-5 nanometer chips at scale. TSMC and Samsung are the other two.

However, there was no true indication of where Terafab would end up, but most believe it will likely be somewhere in Texas. Business Insider has reported that SpaceX plans to build out Terafab in Grimes County, Texas, but this is unconfirmed.

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Musk confirmed recently that it would not be on Giga Texas property, as it is simply too large.

Terafab holds much of Musk’s grand ambitions for the future within its construct. It holds so much responsibility for the future and the biggest projects that Musk’s companies can imagine.

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“I think this is a very big announcement and it deserves to have its own day in the spotlight and not be squeezed into an earnings call,” he said. “I do think Terafab is going to be an amazing initiative and a necessary one, and one without which we will be constrained in our ability to scale Optimus production, because we simply won’t have enough AI chips.”

He continued by stating that Terafab is necessary for scaling Optimus, which Musk said could be the biggest product of any kind of all time. “It’s crucial to solve that, and we’ll have to solve memory, logic, and packaging in order to scale Optimus.”

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Elon Musk reveals SpaceX performed secret Starship test on Flight 13

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX performed a secret test on a specific portion of Starship with its recent 13th test flight last week, CEO Elon Musk revealed.

Starship’s 13th test flight took place last Friday, and in many aspects, it was one of the most overwhelmingly successful launches in the project’s history.

All of the mission objectives were met without incident, both the Super Heavy Booster and Ship managed to perform safe splashdowns in the Gulf of America and the Indian Ocean, respectively, and the deployment of Starlink satellites came and went without any complications.

However, there was more on the agenda for SpaceX with Flight 13. Musk revealed an internal test of the ship’s heat shield tiles, as the space exploration company wanted to push them to the limits after previous issues.

Many noticed that Starship’s initial launch seemed to be more accelerated than normal, and that was not a mistake. Musk revealed that SpaceX decided to give Flight 13 an intentionally aggressive acceleration rate in an effort to test how well the tiles would remain attached to the ship:

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SpaceX had issues with some of the heat shield tiles remaining attached early on in the Starship program. The first six test flights presented some kind of anomaly with them, so the company’s big focus with them was to figure out a way to keep them intact through the duration of the flight.

Things truly improved as Flight 10 showed that ceramic tiles generally stayed attached to the ship far better due to refined attachment, as SpaceX utilized pins instead of adhesives. Flights 10 through 13 truly showed some clear progress with the heat shield tiles, and this latest test seems to be where some real progress was noticed, especially by Musk.

The 13th Starship launch last Friday was the second with Starship V3, SpaceX’s latest and greatest iteration of the spacecraft. Goals and ambitions are getting even grander as the project continues to progress. Musk has already hinted that SpaceX will likely try to catch Starship with Flight 14.

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