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SpaceX will launch its Mars spaceship into orbit as early as 2020

SpaceX fan creates impressive CGI of BFR launch and landing [Credit: Hazegrayart via YouTube]

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First spaceship prototype already under construction

Speaking on a launch industry round-table at the Satellite 2018 conference, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell revealed that the company intends to conduct the first orbital launches of BFR as early as 2020, with suborbital spaceship tests beginning in the first half of 2019.

Only six months after CEO Elon Musk first debuted the Interplanetary Transport System in Adelaide, Australia, a flood of recent comments from both executives have made it overwhelmingly clear that SpaceX intends to have its first spaceship ready for short suborbital test flights at the beginning of 2019. Considering Musk’s unprovoked acknowledgment at SXSW 2018 of his tendency towards overly optimistic timelines, the repeated affirmations of BFS test flights beginning in 2019 and now an orbital launch of the full BFR booster and ship in 2020 hold a fair deal more water than they did in 2017.

SpaceX’s subscale Raptor engine conducting a 40-second test in Texas. This engine will power both BFR and BFS. (SpaceX)

Breaking it down

These past few weeks have been filled with a number of similar statements from SpaceX executives like Shotwell, Musk, and others; all focused in part on the company’s next-generation launch vehicle, BFR (Big __ Rocket). Composed of a single massive booster and an equally massive second stage/spaceship (BFS), the rocket is meant to enable the affordable expansion of permanent human outposts on Mars and throughout the inner solar system by making good on the decades-old promise of fully reusable launch vehicles.

In order to succeed, the company will need to solve the problems that NASA and its Shuttle contractors never could.

To an extent, SpaceX has already matured the principles and technologies needed to reliably recover and reuse the booster stage of two-stage rockets, demonstrated by their incredible success with Falcon 9.

BFR is a whole different animal, partly owing to its massive size, huge thrust, and new propellant and tankage systems, but those problems are more technical than conceptual. SpaceX already knows how to reuse boosters, and that will apply to BFR once its several technological hurdles have been overcome. Designing and building the orbital spaceship (BFS), however, will undoubtedly be the most difficult task SpaceX has yet to take on. The safety and cost records of the only other orbital-class reusable second stage in existence, the Space Shuttle, are at least partially indicative of the difficulty of the challenges ahead of SpaceX.

In order to succeed, the company will need to solve the problems that NASA and its Shuttle contractors never could – they will need to build an orbital, crewed spaceship that can be reused with minimal refurbishment, can launch for little more than the cost of its propellant, and does so with safety and reliability comparable to the records of modern commercial airliners – perhaps the safest form of transport humans have ever created.

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Space Shuttle Atlantis docked with the beginnings of the International Space Station. The Shuttle suffered several deadly failures and cost more than the expendable Saturn V moon rocket it replaced. (NASA)

Rockets do not easily lend themselves to such incredible standards of safety or reliability – airliners average a single death per 16 million flights – but SpaceX will need to reach similar levels of reusability and reliability if they hope to enable even moderately affordable spaceflight or Earth-to-Earth transport by rocket. Still, there can be little doubt that SpaceX employs some of the absolute best engineering expertise to have ever existed in the US, and their extraordinary personal investment in the company’s goal of making humanity multi-planetary bode about as well as could be asked for such an ambitious endeavor. According to Musk and Shotwell, the first spaceship is already being built and suborbital tests will begin as soon as 2019, while full-up orbital launches – presumably involving both the booster and spaceship – might occur just a single year later in 2020.

It appears that we will find out sooner, rather than later, if SpaceX has truly found a way to lower the cost to orbit by several orders of magnitudes. Follow us for live updates, behind-the-scenes sneak peeks, and a sea of beautiful photos from our East and West coast photographers.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk confirms Tesla FSD V14.2 will see widespread rollout

Musk shared the news in a post on social media platform X.

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Credit: Whole Mars Catalog/X

Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla will be implementing a wide rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) V14 with the system’s V14.2 update. Musk shared the news in a post on social media platform X. 

FSD V14.1.2 earns strong praise from testers

Musk’s comment came as a response to Tesla owner and longtime FSD tester AI DRIVR, who noted that it might be time to release Full Self-Driving to the fleet because V14.1.2 has already become very refined.

“95% of the indecisive lane changes and braking have been fixed in FSD 14.1.2. I haven’t touched my steering wheel in two days. I think it’s time, Tesla AI,” the longtime FSD tester wrote

AI DRIVR’s comment received quite a bit of support from fellow Tesla drivers, some of whom noted that the improvements that were implemented in V14.1.2 are substantial. Others also agreed that it’s time for FSD to see a wide release.

In his reply to the FSD tester, CEO Elon Musk noted that FSD V14’s wide release would happen with V14.2. “14.2 for widespread use,” Musk wrote in his reply

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Mad Max mode makes headlines

One of the key features that was introduced with FSD’s current iteration is Mad Max mode, which allows for higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than the previous “Hurry” mode. Videos and social media posts from FSD testers have shown the system deftly handling complex traffic, merging seamlessly, and maintaining an assertive but safe driving behavior with Mad Max mode engaged.

Tesla AI head Ashok Elluswamy recently noted in a post on X that Mad Max mode was built to handle congested daytime traffic, making it extremely useful for drivers who tend to find themselves in heavy roads during their daily commutes. With Musk now hinting that FSD V14.2 will go on wide release, it might only be a matter of time before the larger Tesla fleet gets to experience the notable improvements of FSD’s V14 update.

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Multiple Tesla Cybercab units spotted at Giga Texas crash test facility

The vehicles were covered, but one could easily recognize the Cybercab’s sleek lines and compact size.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

It appears that Tesla is ramping up its activities surrounding the development and likely initial production of the Cybercab at Giga Texas. This was, at least, hinted at in a recent drone flyover of the massive electric vehicle production facility in Austin. 

Cybercab sightings fuel speculations

As observed by longtime Giga Texas drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, Tesla had several covered Cybercab units outside the facility’s crash testing facility at the time of his recent flyover. The vehicles were covered, but one could easily recognize the Cybercab’s sleek lines and compact size. Tegtmeyer also observed during his flyover that production of the Model Y Standard seems to be hitting its pace.

The drone operator noted that the seven covered Cybercabs might be older prototypes being decommissioned or new units awaiting crash tests. Either scenario points to a ramp-up in Cybercab activity at Giga Texas, however. “In either case, this is another datapoint indicating production is getting closer to happening,” Tegtmeyer wrote on X, highlighting that the autonomous two-seaters were quite exciting to see.

Cybercab production targets

This latest sighting follows reports of renewed Cybercab appearances at both the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas. A test unit was recently spotted driving on Giga Texas’ South River Road. Another Cybercab, seen at Tesla’s Fremont Factory, appeared to be manually driven, suggesting that the vehicle’s current prototypes may still be produced with temporary steering controls.

The Tesla Cybercab is designed to be the company’s highest-volume vehicle, with CEO Elon Musk estimating that the autonomous two-seater should see an annual production rate of about 2 million units per year. To accomplish this, Tesla will be building the Cybercab using its “Unboxed” process, which should help the vehicle’s production line achieve outputs that are more akin to consumer electronics production lines.

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Teslas in the Boring Co. Vegas Loop are about to get a big change

Elon Musk has a big update for Teslas that operate within the Boring Company’s Vegas Loop.

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the boring company's vegas loop entrance
(Credit: Sam Morris, LVCVA/Las Vegas News Bureau)

Tesla vehicles operating in the Boring Company’s Vegas Loop are about to get a big change, CEO Elon Musk said.

In Las Vegas, the Boring Company operates the Vegas Loop, an underground tunnel system that uses Teslas to drop people off at various hotspots on the strip. It’s been active for a few years now and is expanding to other resorts, hotels, and destinations.

Currently, there are stops at three resorts: Westgate, the Encore, and Resorts World. However, there will eventually be “over 100 stations and span over 68 miles of tunnel,” the Vegas Loop website says.

The Loop utilizes Tesla Model 3 and Model Y vehicles to send passengers to their desired destinations. They are currently driven using the Full Self-Driving suite, but they also have safety drivers in each vehicle to ensure safety.

Tesla Cybertruck rides are crucial for Vegas Loop expansion to airport

Tesla and the Boring Company have been working to remove drivers from the vehicles used in the Loop, but now, it appears there is a set timeline to have them out, according to CEO Elon Musk:

Musk says the Boring Co. will no longer rely on safety drivers within the Teslas for operation. Instead, Tesla will look to remove the safety drivers from the cars within the next month or two, a similar timeline for what Musk believes the Robotaxi platform will look like in Austin.

In Texas, as Robotaxi continues to operate as it has since June, there are still safety monitors within the car who sit in the passenger’s seat. They are there to ensure a safe experience for riders.

When the route takes the vehicle on the highway, safety monitors move into the driver’s seat.

However, Tesla wants to be able to remove safety monitors from its vehicles in Austin by the end of the year, Musk has said recently.

In early September, Musk said that the safety monitors are “just there for the first few months to be extra safe.” He then added that there “should be no safety driver by end of year.”

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