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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon abort test gets closer to launch with SuperDraco static fires

A pair of Crew Dragon's upgraded SuperDraco abort engines perform a static fire test. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX has posted a video showing the static fire test of a pod of Crew Dragon SuperDraco abort thrusters, indicating that the complex system has been successfully redesigned (“upgraded”) to fix the faults that caused a Dragon capsule to explode in April 2019.

This progress keeps SpaceX on track for two critical Crew Dragon milestones, both of which are now expected to occur sooner than later.

Published just a few hours prior, CNBC journalist Michael Sheetz reported that SpaceX is planning to static fire the Super Draco abort thrusters of Crew Dragon capsule C205 as early as November 2nd.

Capsule C205 – along with an expendable trunk – were reassigned to support Crew Dragon’s crucial In-Flight Abort (IFA) test after flight-proven capsule C201 was destroyed just prior to a SuperDraco static fire test on April 20th. Having just successfully completed Crew Dragon’s first uncrewed orbital launch, space station docking, and ocean recovery (Demo-1), the plan was to reuse C201 to perform the IFA test.

Crew Dragon C205 would support Demo-2 – the spacecraft’s first NASA astronaut launch – and C206 would support Post-Certification Mission 1 (PCM-1), meaning Dragon’s first operational delivery of astronauts to the ISS.

Crew Dragon capsule C205 and Falcon 9 booster B1046 arrived in Florida around October 3rd ahead of SpaceX’s critical In-Flight Abort (IFA) test. (SpaceX)
Excluding Falcon 9, all pieces of SpaceX’s first astronaut-rated Crew Dragon spacecraft are visible in this one frame: capsule C206, a heat shield, and what looks like a nearly finished trunk. (Teslarati – Pauline Acalin)

Instead, Crew Dragon C201 suffered a catastrophic explosion just prior to a SuperDraco static fire test at SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Landing Zone (LZ) facilities. Capsule C205 was diverted to support the In-Flight Abort, while C206 was moved up to support Demo-2. Had C201’s static fire been successful, SpaceX could have been ready to launch Crew Dragon’s IFA mission as early as May or June.

As Michael Sheetz reported, SpaceX now plans to perform a similar static fire test of the IFA Crew Dragon capsule as early as November 2nd. It’s unclear if this static fire would have been performed had C201 not exploded, but CNBC suggests that NASA and a number of other parties will be watching the results of this test closely.

SpaceX’s first spaceworthy Crew Dragon capsule prepares for its first Falcon 9-integrated static fire and a post-recovery test fire three months later. (SpaceX)

Whether that’s true or not, it’s unclear just how relevant a SuperDraco static fire of a factory-fresh Crew Dragon spacecraft (C205) is to C201’s failure. The latter spacecraft had completed months of testing (much of it fueled), spent a week in orbit, reentered Earth’s atmosphere, and splashed down in saltwater barely a month and a half prior to the fated test.

Regardless, it looks like SpaceX and NASA understandably want to perform a (relatively) similar static fire test to verify that – at a minimum – the Dragon capsule’s abort thrusters are in working order. As SpaceX’s static fire video illustrates, SuperDraco thrusters – as well as each integrated pair of engines – are all static fired in McGregor, Texas as part of routine acceptance testing. If all goes as planned during the November 2nd static fire, as well as the Falcon 9 rocket’s own static fire, Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort mission could launch as early as late-November.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect

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Credit: TechOperator | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.

Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:

  • Total Revenues: $28.34B
  • Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
  • Operating Margin: 2.5%
  • Operating Income: $721M
  • Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B

Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:

Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability

This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.

Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.

Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress

The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.

Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.

Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for

Say Investor Questions

  1. How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
  2. When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
  3. When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
  4. What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
  5. Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?

The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.

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SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.

CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:

This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”

Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.

The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.

The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.

As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX stock gets a slew of price target boosts after bullish earnings call

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Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.

SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.

Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.

The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.

Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.

These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:

  • JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
  • Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
  • Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
  • UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
  • TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
  • Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
  • Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.

Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.

The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.

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