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SpaceX surprises after recovering spacecraft 'trunk' in one piece
In a surprise twist, SpaceX has recovered an expendable ‘trunk’ that launched with Crew Dragon on its January 19th In-Flight Abort (IFA) test, in which the spacecraft successfully escaped from an exploding Falcon 9 rocket.
While recovering pieces of Dragon’s disposable trunk would not have been shocking, SpaceX has returned this particular Crew Dragon trunk to shore in a condition that can only be described as unscathed. The surprise came first on the evening of January 19th, when two separate SpaceX ships returned to Port Canaveral — first and foremost bringing Crew Dragon capsule C205 back to dry land for inspection and possible reuse. However, a separate ship – GO Navigator – followed the ship carrying Crew Dragon not long after, revealing a shockingly intact Dragon trunk on its deck.
At 10:30 am EST (15:30 UTC) on January 19th, Falcon 9 booster B1046, an expendable upper stage, and the newest Crew Dragon spacecraft lifted off from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A) on the spacecraft’s second-ever integrated launch. Designed to push Crew Dragon’s abort systems to their limits, the spacecraft ignited its SuperDraco thrusters around 85 seconds after liftoff, soaring away from a supersonic Falcon 9 and triggering the rocket’s catastrophic (but expected) explosion around 10 seconds later.
A bit like pushing against a wall, Crew Dragon had to fight uphill against a continuous supersonic blast of air to escape the Falcon 9 rocket that launched it, likely adding tens of thousands of pounds (several dozen metric tons) of additional pressure spread out over the top of the capsule. The spacecraft and its detachable trunk section – carrying a solar array, radiators, and four fins – appeared to survive the experience without issue.
The capsule’s SuperDraco engines shut off after about 10 seconds, leaving the integrated spacecraft to coast to an apogee of ~40 km (25 mi), where it finally detached its trunk (pictured above). Designed to be disposable, Crew Dragon features a trunk functionally similar to the one SpaceX has flown almost 20 times on Cargo Dragon (Dragon 1) missions. Crew Dragon’s trunk looks quite a bit different, stretching taller and featuring an interesting conformal solar array (vs. Dragon 1’s deployable panels), as well as radiators (white rectangular panels) the spacecraft needs to maintain thermal equilibrium while in space.
Nominally, Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon launch on Falcon 9, reach orbit, and go about their business of delivering astronauts and cargo to and from the International Space Station (ISS). After completing their given mission, the trunk section is eventually detached an hour or two before one last reentry burn, eventually returning the spacecraft to Earth. The trunk is thus left in low Earth orbit (LEO), eventually reentering on its own days, weeks, or months later and vaporizing into plasma before it hits Earth’s surface.
While it’s thus surprising that Crew Dragon C205’s trunk section – built primarily out of carbon composites like Falcon 9’s payload fairing and interstage – survived its In-Flight Abort mission more or less intact, the unexpected recovery sadly doesn’t mean that SpaceX has any plans to try to routinely recover or reuse the hardware. If Dragon trunks detached well before orbit, SpaceX might reconsider, but that would defeat their purpose of providing Dragons with power and thermal management while in orbit.
Surviving a terminal-velocity ocean splashdown is certainly no mean feat, but surviving an orbital-velocity atmospheric reentry is magnitudes more challenging, although SpaceX is certainly cognizant of the trade-off. Starship, for example, is expected to include thermal management and power generation systems as an integral part of the (nominally) fully-reusable spaceship and upper stage. At the scale of Crew Dragon, it’s just hard to rationalize doubling or tripling the mass of the spacecraft’s trunk just to tack on a complex recovery system.
All told, both NASA and SpaceX have since indicated that preliminary telemetry from Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort test paints an extremely positive picture and effectively confirmed that the test was a total success. With a little luck, it’s safe to say that Crew Dragon will be sacrificing a trunk section in orbit before returning NASA astronauts to Earth just a few months from now.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
