News
SpaceX techs work towards Falcon 9 fairing recovery with wacky series of experiments
Over the course of the past week, Teslarati photographer Pauline Acalin has captured a multitude of unusual occurrences at SpaceX’s Port of Los Angeles dock space, each time involving a Falcon fairing recovery vessel like Mr Steven or NRC Quest, a Falcon fairing half (flight-proven or otherwise), and one of several attenuating circumstances.
More likely than not, what appears as a menagerie of weird and disconnected events on the sidelines is actually a reasonably organized leg of a larger program, in this case focused on experimentation and testing to close the fairing recovery loop and secure Mr Steven’s first successful fairing catch.
From @USCGLosAngeles – A captive carry test involving a helicopter picking an item from a vessel will be conducted 9/20, 11-1300, in the vicinity of San Clemente Island in the San Nicolas Basin. Mariners are requested to maintain a distance of 5NM from the operation. pic.twitter.com/nvy6Wo0IvF
— Marine Exchange (@MXSOCAL) September 19, 2018
The mystery of Catalina Island
Now-iconic fairing recovery vessel (or net-boat, or claw-boat) Mr Steven has been out of commission since late August, at which point SpaceX technicians removed all four of his arms and their eight complementary shock absorber booms towards unknown ends. If SpaceX’s past is any judge, those arms are probably in the process of being upgraded, but it’s impossible to judge thanks to the fact that they have simply disappeared from the Berth 240 docks where they were briefly stored. SpaceX certainly has a way with transporting massive, ungainly objects without stirring a whisper.
Despite lacking arms for more than a month, Mr Steven has still performed a number of sea-trials, ranging from average jaunts a few miles away to a mysterious armless test described in the tweet above. Why exactly Mr Steven was involved in an experiment involving a helicopter “picking an item” – in this case a flight-proven Falcon fairing – off of a vessel while entirely lacking the arms and net he would use to catch said fairing is entirely unclear. Perhaps it was meant to test a datalink or a change to fairing recovery hardware. Whatever transpired, a group of SpaceX technicians certainly flew to Catalina Island and were working alongside or with a Blackhawk helicopter capable of externally carrying up to 3600 kg (8000 lb) of cargo.
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- Shortly after completing the CRS-15 resupply mission, Cargo Dragon C110 is craned from NRC Quest to SpaceX’s Port of San Pedro berth, 08/05/18. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Mr Steven was out and about conducting high-speed maneuvers two days prior, and also joined NRC Quest near Catalina Island on the 20th. (Pauline Acalin)
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- NRC Quest returned to port with a Falcon fairing aboard after a long day doing *something* at sea. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Note the sooty tip of the fairing’s nose, a telltale sign that it previously flew on a Falcon 9 launch. (Pauline Acalin)
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Multipurpose recovery vessel NRC Quest – nominally dedicated to Cargo Dragon spacecraft recoveries – returned to SpaceX-leased Berth 240 a few hours after the September 20th test window closed, sooty Falcon 9 fairing half in tow. Still, this certainly isn’t the weirdest Falcon fairing-related activity to occur last week.
Fairings aplenty
Meanwhile, over at Mr Steven’s old berth and drone ship Just Read The Instructions’ current berth, a different Falcon fairing half appeared sometime in the last several days in an unusual state, seemingly either fresh out of the factory or in an advanced state of disassembly. The base of this particular fairing half seems to be entirely missing the usual layer(s) of material (cork, among other things) used to waterproof and act as a lightweight heatshield. A new fairing half sitting out in the elements with zero protection would be exceptionally unusual, as CEO Elon Musk has noted that they each cost several million dollars ($3m to be precise), and exposure outside of a cleanroom could very well prevent this half from ever being operationally flown.
The next best conclusion to be drawn is that this unique fairing half is new or flight-proven (with skin and shielding removed), but sitting at SpaceX’s dock space in order to prepare for one or several active drop tests in pursuit of Mr Steven’s first successful fairing catch. But who really knows, to be honest. The fairing’s bare carbon fiber composite construction is certainly a sight to behold, one way or another.
Doing…something.
This leads us to the grand (perhaps… titanic) finale of wholly unexpected Falcon fairing activities over the last several days. Presumably making the best of an opportunity to test NRC Quest’s ability to recover Falcon fairings after splashdown (i.e. missing Mr Steven’s net), the pictures generally tell the story better than any words ever could. Keep your eyes peeled for Fairing Wrangler job openings.
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- Getting the (un)lucky half into the water. (Pauline Acalin)
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- One lucky dude. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Weeeeeeeeee. (Pauline Acalin)
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- NRC Quest then lifted the fairing half (likely from Iridium-7) aboard. (Pauline Acalin)
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- NRC Quest then lifted the fairing half (likely from Iridium-7) aboard. (Pauline Acalin)
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- This extraordinarily unusual operation lent an opportunity to see just how flexible and structurally optimized SpaceX’s payload fairings are. (Pauline Acalin)
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- After returning from a day at sea doing who-knows-what, Mr Steven’s captain attempted to use the 500 metric ton vessel to splash a fellow recovery tech. A for effort. (Pauline Acalin)
Up next for SpaceX, Mr Steven, and the West Coast recovery crew is SAOCOM-1A, scheduled to launch from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base on the evening (Pacific Time) of October 6th.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
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None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
