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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk lays out Starship’s path to orbit with sights set on 2020 debut
Speaking on September 28th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sketched out a fairly detailed picture of Starship’s path to orbit, from the first flight of the first full-scale prototype to the spacecraft’s inaugural orbital launch atop a Super Heavy booster.
Incredibly, Musk was persistent with claims that he has challenged SpaceX’s Starship teams to conduct the next-generation rocket’s first orbital launch within six months, drawing a line in the sand around April 1st, 2020 (?). How, then, does the SpaceX CEO foresee the next year or so playing out?
A whole lotta ‘Ships
As is the company’s signature, Musk confirmed that the Starship development program will continue to be highly distributed, hardware-rich, and focused on an iterative and continuous process of learning by doing. Starhopper is perhaps the best emblem of this methodology, defying almost every conceivable aerospace industry norm to successfully build and repeatedly fly what was essentially a rocket built outside by water tower welders.
Starhopper may have scarcely been meant to fly at all, serving almost entirely as a proof of concept and learning experience, but Musk strongly suggested that future Starship prototypes will replicate its highly iterative, learning-on-the-job approach to development. In short, much like SpaceX has nearly completed Starship Mk1 (and Mk2) from scratch in less than six months, SpaceX’s development strategy involves building a lot of Starship prototypes as quickly as possible.
Specifically, Elon Musk stated – in his opinion – that SpaceX will likely attempt its first orbital Starship-Super Heavy launch immediately after Starship Mk1’s first flight attempt, a suborbital launch to ~20 km (12.5 mi). Assuming that test – far more critical than any of Starhopper’s travails – is successful, the very next Starship flight could be an orbital launch attempt.
First and foremost, Musk was pretty clear that the rough schedule he laid out was a “stream of consciousness”. Indeed, the eccentric CEO contradicted (or updated) himself over the course of answering the same question, stating that “[SpaceX] would fly to orbit with [Starship] Mk3” before saying that that it would actually be “Mk4 or Mk5”. Musk is still undoubtedly set on announcing gobsmackingly ambitious schedules for his projects, but it’s worth noting just how serious he seemed while discussing Starship’s development timeline.
He noted that SpaceX will likely “have [Starship] Mk2 built within a couple of months – or less”, referring to the second prototype currently in the late stages of integration at the company’s similar Cocoa, FL facilities. Additionally, Musk indicated that Starship Mk3 – yet to begin construction in Boca Chica – could be finished as few three months from now (around the start of 2020), with Starship Mk4 – to be built in Florida – could be just one to two months behind (NET Feb/March 2020). Correcting his previous statement, whether intentional or not, Musk also added that SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch attempt would likely involve either the Mk4 or Mk5 prototype and occur “less than six months from now”.
As a slight consolation to the eyewateringly ambitious timeline he laid out, Musk qualified his “six months to orbit” target by acknowledging that it would only be achievable “provided the rate of design and manufacturing improvement continues to be exponential”. If that remains the case, as he believes it has been over the last six or so months, then SpaceX could be ready for the first orbital Starship launch attempt as few as 6-9 months from now – sometime in the first half of 2020.
A lot will undoubtedly have to go very right for that to remain anywhere within the realm of plausibility. This includes the rapid maturation of Starship’s Raptor engine and vacuum-optimized variant, the successful completion of Starship Mk1’s 20km flight test, the assembly and static fire of the first Super Heavy booster(s), the construction of brand new orbital launch facilities, and the FAA’s approval of all aforementioned flight operations.
Needless to say, the odds are heavily stacked against Musk’s goal of reaching orbit within six months. There is undoubtedly a chance that SpaceX can pull it off, even if success would essentially involve constructing a bridge while driving off a cliff. However, the most important thing to note is that even if Elon Musk is a factor of 1.5, 2, 3, or even 4 times off and Starship reaches orbit for the first time 12 or 18 or 24 months from now, it will still have been an incredibly brisk period of development for a rocket as large, high-performance, and ambitious as Starship/Super Heavy.
It should also be made clear that, while it’s utterly beyond the present capabilities of NASA and other space agencies/companies of the 21st century, Saturn V went from paper to its first orbital launch in just five years. Depending on how one perceives Starship development, it could be said that SpaceX began development – particularly marked by Raptor engine prototype testing – as early as 2016. Suffice it to say that it’s far from impossible that Starship’s first orbital launch will happen next year, even if the challenges SpaceX faces are immense.
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Tesla receives its first robotaxi permit in California
Tesla’s robotaxi services are one step closer to making it to California.
Ahead of Tesla’s plans to roll out a fleet of commercial robotaxis, the company has gained its first permit in a series of those needed to begin operating driverless ride-hailing services in California.
On Monday, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) announced the approval of Tesla’s application for a charter-party carrier permit, which licenses the company to run ride-hailing and chauffeur services in the state, according to a report from Reuters on Tuesday.
The permit allows Tesla to own and operate a chauffeur fleet for certain commercial purposes, including the ability to transport employees across pre-arranged navigation routes. However, this permit does not yet offer full approval for ride-hailing or autonomous vehicle use.
Still, the permit comes as the first in a series of those Tesla will need to launch a highly-anticipated autonomous robotaxi business, which is expected to begin rolling out in Texas and California this year. Tesla also released its two-seat, steering wheel-less Cybercab at an event in October, eventually expected to be the basic fleet vehicle for driverless ride-hailing purposes.
You can see Tesla’s render for a ride-hailing mobile app below, along with Teslarati’s coverage of the October 10 “We, Robot” unveiling event for the Cybercab.
Credit: Tesla
🎥: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024
READ MORE ON TESLA’S ROBOTAXI BUSINESS: Tesla flexes Robotaxi wireless charging — autonomy from top to bottom
In California, the CPUC will also co-manage regulatory needs for autonomy approval for Tesla, alongside the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV).
During Tesla’s Q3 earnings call last November, Elon Musk said that Tesla employees in the Bay Area were already testing a ride-hailing service internally. Using an app, Musk said employees could already request rides and be taken to anywhere in the Bay.
Meanwhile, Tesla is aiming to roll out initial unsupervised rides as a service in the Austin, Texas area this summer, based on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. The system is first expected to be usable on individual owners’ vehicles, eventually using the recently unveiled Cybercab autonomous vehicle on a wider scale.
Tesla also hopes to expand the service to other states by the end of the year, though it’s not yet clear where.
Tesla mobile app tracker reports first lines referencing robotaxi service
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Tesla has joined the Australian Energy Council
Tesla Energy will join a top energy council in Australia, as it continues to deploy a wide range of battery projects in the country.
Tesla has been announced as the most recent member to join an industry group of electricity and energy businesses in Australia, coming amidst a wave of grid- and home-scale battery deployments in the country from the U.S. manufacturer.
Last week, Tesla Australia officially joined the Australian Energy Council (AEC) as the group’s newest member, contributing to a group of companies that administers gas and electricity to over 10 million homes. The news, announced in a post on LinkedIn, comes as Tesla continues to expand the presence of its grid-scale Megapacks and home-scale Powerwalls in Australia and elsewhere,
The council wrote the following announcement message in the post:
AEC membership provides an opportunity to collaborate to develop the solutions necessary to drive Australia’s energy transition. Together, we aim to create positive outcomes for consumers across the nation as the energy system decarbonises.
We look forward to working closely with Tesla Australia to help shape the future of Australia’s energy landscape.
The announcement also garnered a response from Tesla Energy’s Regional Director for the Asia-Pacific region Josef Tadich, who shared a few words about the news in another post:
A big thank you to Louisa Kinnear and the Australian Energy Council, Tesla are very much looking forward to working together in this space, in what is turning out to be an exciting 2025.
Wholesale and retail electricity markets are rapidly adapting and changing to new technologies, with more renewables and storage on the supply side, and more generation and flexible loads on the Customer demand side with VPPs, and controllable EV charging loads to name a few. Great time to be in this dynamic space!
READ MORE ON TESLA ENERGY IN AUSTRALIA: Tesla building battery repair facility near Collie Megapack project
The announcement comes as Tesla has shipped Megapacks to a handful of energy storage sites in Australia, including a 1,600MWh Tesla Megapack facility in Plumpton, Victoria that’s expected to turn on sometime this year. Tesla is also working on expanding the Western Australia “Collie” battery, which will feature 2,240 MWh of Megapack storage upon completion of phase two.
While the U.S. company currently builds its Megapacks at a so-called “Megafactory” in Lathrop, California, the company began production last month at a second Megafactory in Shanghai, China that’s expected to supply future energy projects in Australia. The company has also teased plans for a third Megafactory, though it isn’t yet clear where that could be built.
In addition to Tesla’s grid-scale Megapack batteries, the company also builds the Powerwall home-scale battery, which can be used for households or commercial buildings to store energy, along with being able to deploy energy back to the grid. Tesla also launched its next-generation Powerwall 3 in the Australian market last year.
The company utilizes its network of Powerwall owners to create giant, distributed batteries, called Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), effectively letting owners sell electricity back to the electrical grid during periods of peak demand. These programs are being utilized across much of Australia and several other markets throughout the world, and Tesla said in October that it had reached over 100,000 Powerwalls participating in VPPs worldwide.
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Tesla arsonist set himself on fire after throwing Molotov cocktail: authorities
Witnesses reported that the suspect caught fire mid-act, with one device scorching his back as he fled.
An arson attempt targeting a Tesla charging station in South Carolina left the suspect engulfed in flames and facing up to 20 years in prison, authorities have stated.
The suspect allegedly torched three chargers in a protest against President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, scrawling anti-Trump graffiti before accidentally setting himself ablaze with his own Molotov cocktails, as noted in a New York Post report.
Arsonist Burns Self in Tesla Protest
Federal prosecutors stated that 24-year-old Daniel Clarke-Pounder hurled five Molotov cocktails at a Tesla charging station in North Charleston, igniting three chargers while leaving messages like “f–k Trump” and “long live the Ukraine” in the area. Witnesses reported that Clarke-Pounder caught fire mid-act, with one device scorching his back as he fled, according to a police report cited by WCBD.
“The suspect had accidentally caught their own back on fire while throwing the devices,” an initial police report noted. Clarke-Pounder was arraigned in federal court, though his injuries remained undisclosed.
Backlash Targets Musk’s Tesla Empire
The fiery incident follows a wave of hostility toward Tesla, fueled by Musk’s leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under U.S. President Donald Trump. Over the past months, Teslas have been subjected to vandalism incidents, and some locations have been shot up. In some cases, Tesla locations have been attacked with Molotov cocktails.
Officials such as President Donald Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi have issued stern warnings against those who wish to attack Tesla and its customers. Trump, for one, pledged that anyone caught attacking American companies like Tesla will “go through hell.”
“No Place in Our Community”
Acting U.S. Attorney Brook B. Andrews condemned the attack, stating, “While we will defend the public’s right to peaceful protest, we will not hesitate to act when protest crosses the line into violence and mayhem.
“These kinds of attacks have no place in our community… We must remain united in our commitment to safety and respect for all, regardless of political differences.”
Tesla receives its first robotaxi permit in California
Tesla has joined the Australian Energy Council
Tesla arsonist set himself on fire after throwing Molotov cocktail: authorities
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