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SpaceX Falcon 9 booster spied on highway as triple-satellite launch moves right

Reddit user intamin1 spotted a Falcon 9 booster northbound between Hawthorne and Vandenberg on Jan 22. (Reddit /u/intamin1)

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A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was spotted heading north from the company’s Hawthorne, California factory on January 22nd, signifying a likely shipment of the flight-proven rocket that will help launch Canada’s trio of Radarsat Constellation Mission satellites.

Delayed from mid-February to early March 2019 after an unplanned landing anomaly damaged the Falcon 9 originally assigned to the mission, the shipment of a different booster to Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) helps to narrow down the rocket now likeliest to launch the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) radar satellite constellation.

https://twitter.com/GoForStaging/status/1088174203298230272

Do the Booster Shuffle!

Thanks to a hydraulic pump failure that led Falcon 9 B1050 to land (albeit softly and in one piece) in the Atlantic Ocean last December, the imminent launch of two booster-dense Falcon Heavy missions, and the thus far schedule-shy orbital launch debut of Crew Dragon, SpaceX’s fleet of available boosters – all flight-proven – can be succinctly summarized as “B1046 thru B1049”.

B1050’s future is uncertain after suffering a smashed interstage and soaking in salt water for several days, while B1051 is definitively assigned to Crew Dragon’s orbital launch debut, known as Demo-1 (DM-1). Falcon 9 B1052 and B1053 are unknown quantities and B1054 was expended after a high-value US Air Force launch, also SpaceX’s final mission of 2018. It’s probably safe to bet that B1052, B1053, and B1055 will be the next three boosters to support a Falcon Heavy launch (or two), currently NET March and April 2019. All three of those Falcon Heavy (FH) boosters have completed static fire tests in Texas and both side boosters arrived at SpaceX’s Florida facilities within the last ~6 weeks.

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Assuming that Falcon Heavy Flight 2 and 3 use the same exact boosters, SpaceX production technicians and engineers may already be nearing the completion of another Falcon 9 booster (B1056, presumably) at the Hawthorne factory, although they are likely 1-2 weeks away from that milestone. If, Falcon Heavy Flight 3 (presumed to be the USAF’s STP-2 mission) does not reuse all three first stage boosters from Flight 2 (commercial payload Arabsat 6A), then Hawthorne will have to build, ship, and test anywhere from 1-3 additional boosters between now and April 2019. In the latter scenario, all unflown – mid-build or completed – Falcon boosters would be ‘claimed’ between now and March or April.

Put in another way, short of opting for a delay that could stretch 1-4 months or longer, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and Radarsat prime contractor MDA will have to accept one of SpaceX’s flight-proven Falcon 9s.

Falcons on wheels

Thanks to SpaceX’s trusty and well-worn method of using good old trucks and roads to transport Falcon 9 and Heavy boosters, upper stages, fairings, landing legs, and much more cross-country, spaceflight fans have long taken advantage of opportunities – rare and fleeting as they might be – to spot and track SpaceX hardware on public roads. Put simply, a lot of people are excited about SpaceX or are at least familiar and curious enough to know someone to share a photo or observation with. As a result, the community averages dozens of ‘core spottings’ per year. With a little intuition, the process of elimination, a few sources, and some wild guesses, this allows unofficial fans to (very roughly) paint a picture of SpaceX’s fleet of rockets.

 

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For example, the Falcon 9 spotted in Valencia, CA on January 22nd by Reddit user intamin1 could theoretically be any SpaceX booster currently in existence. By knowing the rough state of SpaceX’s fleet (as described above) and observing that the booster was northbound between Hawthorne, CA (the factory) and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on Jan 22, a great deal can be intuited. Bound for SpaceX’s West Coast launch complex (SLC-4), it ought to be flightworthy. Knowing that a Falcon Heavy center booster was on SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas static fire stand on January 10th means that the spotted booster can’t (or at least shouldn’t) be coming from Texas, as Falcon Heavy has no known launches planned from VAFB. The process of testing, inspecting, and preparing Falcon boosters for cross-country shipment is also not easily rushed.

On the East Coast, SpaceX needs to launch communications satellite PSN-6 and Spaceflight rideshare GTO-1 in mid to late February. With no new boosters expected to be easily available for months and PSN-6/GTO-1 already entering into the phases of payload fueling, integration, and fairing encapsulation, it can be all but guaranteed that a flight-proven booster was assigned to the mission months ago and is now nearly ready for its third flight somewhere in Cape Canaveral, FL.

SpaceX manufactures Falcon 9 and Heavy at its Hawthorne, CA factory. (SpaceX)

Given that B1046 and B1049 are on the West Coast after conducting launches from VAFB and that B1050 is out of circulation for the time being, only B1047 and B1048 remain (in theory) on the East Coast, both having flown two missions. B1048 was recently spotted and confirmed in photos of SpaceX’s Pad 39A integration hangar, although Falcon 9 B1051 and the first orbit-ready Crew Dragon were the center of attention.

B1047 completed its second launch in mid-November 2018 and returned to one of SpaceX’s Florida hangars for refurbishment around Nov 21. Unless any number of locals and bystanders somehow missed it, neither booster has left the Cape since arriving. Meanwhile, B1048 is currently the best-known candidate at hand for SpaceX’s Crew Dragon In-Flight Abort (IFA) test, expected to occur no earlier than spring 2019 and entirely dependent upon the successful launch, reentry, recovery, and refurbishment of the DM-1 capsule to proceed. As a result, the only booster that is realistically available for PSN-6/GTO-1 is Falcon 9 B1047 for what would be its third launch.

Assuming B1048 did not manage to make it from Cape Canaveral to Central California without a single spotting, the only rockets available for the RCM mission are B1046 and B1049. B1049 completed its second launch – Iridium-8 – just weeks ago and returned by drone ship to Port of LA on January 13th, whereas Falcon 9 B1046 – after completing its historic third launch – completed recovery and was snug in a Hawthorne, CA refurbishment bay by December 17th, 2018. Going off of Occam’s Razor, B1046 is the clear victor for the launch of RCM, although a ~60-90-day turnaround for the already thrice-flown booster could be a stretch. B1049, however, would have barely a single month for refurbishment and inspections.

In the last week or two, RCM stakeholders were provided an updated launch target, delaying the mission by approximately two weeks to a window that begins February 28th with the implication being that the launch is now expected NET early March. If that date is recent and from SpaceX, B1046 is the most practical option, with B1049 thus filling its refurbishment bay in Hawthorne, CA around the same day. If a risk of a 30-day or greater delay is tolerable for CSA and MDA, then B1049.3 would likely be a more optimal fit for their risk tolerance profile. Time will tell!


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla ramps production of its ‘new’ models at Giga Texas

The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla is ramping up production of its ‘new’ Model Y Standard at Gigafactory Texas just over a week after it first announced the vehicle on October 7.

Earlier this month, Tesla launched the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” their release of what it calls its affordable models. They are priced under $40,000, and although there was some noise surrounding the skepticism that they’re actually “affordable,” it appears things have been moving in the right direction.

The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer:

The new Standard Tesla models are technically the company’s response to losing the $7,500 EV tax credit, which significantly impacts any company manufacturing electric vehicles.

However, it seems the loss of the credit is impacting others much more than it is Tesla.

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As General Motors and Ford are scaling back their EV efforts because it is beginning to hurt their checkbooks, Tesla is moving forward with its roadmap to catalyze annual growth from a delivery perspective. While GM, Ford, and Stellantis are all known for their vehicles, Tesla is known for its prowess as a car company, an AI company, and a Robotics entity.

Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies

Tesla should have other vehicles coming in the next few years, especially as the Cybercab is evidently moving along with its preliminary processes, like crash testing and overall operational assessment.

It has been spotted at the Fremont Factory several times over the past couple of weeks, hinting that the vehicle could begin production sometime next year.

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Tesla set to be impacted greatly in one of its strongest markets

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tesla norway
Credit: Robert O. Akander-Lima/LinkedIn

Tesla could be greatly impacted in one of its strongest markets as the government is ready to eliminate a main subsidy for electric vehicles over the next two years.

In Norway, EV concentrations are among the strongest in the world, with over 98 percent of all new cars sold in September being electric powertrains. This has been a long-standing trend in the Nordic region, as countries like Iceland and Sweden are also highly inclined to buy EVs.

Tesla Model Y leads sales rush in Norway in August 2025

However, the Norwegian government is ready to abandon a subsidy program it has in place, as it has effectively achieved what it set out to do: turn consumers to sustainability.

This week, Norway’s Finance Minister, Jens Stoltenberg, said it is time to consider phasing out the benefits that are given to those consumers who choose to buy an EV.

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Stoltenberg said this week (via Reuters):

“We have had a goal that all new passenger cars should be electric by 2025, and … we can say that the goal has been achieved. Therefore, the time is ripe to phase out the benefits.”

EV subsidies in Norway include reduced value-added tax (VAT) on cheaper models, lower road and toll fees, and even free parking in some areas.

The government also launched programs that would reduce taxes for companies and fleets. Individuals are also exempt from the annual circulation tax and fuel-related taxes.

In 2026, changes will already be made. Norway will lower its EV tax exemption to any vehicle priced at over 300,000 crowns ($29,789.40), down from the current 500,000, which equates to about $49,500.

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Tesla Superchargers most liked by Norway EV drivers

This would eliminate each of the Tesla Model Y’s trim levels from tax exemption status. In 2027, the VAT exemptions will be completely removed. Not a single EV on the market will be able to help owners escape from tax-exempt status.

There is some pushback on the potential loss of subsidies and benefits, and some groups believe that the loss of the programs will regress the progress EVs have made.

Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian EV Association, said:

“I worry that sudden and major changes will make more people choose fossil-fuel cars again, and I think everyone agrees that we don’t want to go back there.”

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies

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elon musk
Credit: @Gf4Tesla/Twitter

With the loss of the $7,500 Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, it looks as if Tesla CEO Elon Musk was right all along.

As the tax credit’s loss starts to take effect, car companies that have long relied on the $7,500 credit to create sales for themselves are starting to adjust their strategies for sales and their overall transition to electrification.

On Tuesday, General Motors announced it would include a $1.6 billion charge in its upcoming quarterly earnings results from its EV investments.

Ford said in late September that it expects demand for its EVs to be cut in half. Stellantis is abandoning its plan to have only EVs being produced in Europe by 2030, and Chrysler, a brand under the Stellantis umbrella, is bailing on lofty EV sales targets here in the U.S.

How Tesla could benefit from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ that axes EV subsidies

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The tax credit and EV subsidies have achieved what many of us believed they were doing: masking car companies from the truth about their EV demand. Simply put, their products are not priced attractively enough for what they offer, and there is no true advantage to buying EVs developed by legacy companies.

These tax credits have helped companies simply compete with Tesla, nothing more and nothing less. Without them, their products likely would not have done as well as they have. That’s why these companies are now suddenly backtracking.

It’s something Elon Musk has said all along.

Back in January, during the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call, Musk said:

“I think it would be devastating for our competitors and for Tesla slightly. But, long term, it probably actually helps Tesla, that would be my guess.”

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In July of last year, Musk said on X:

“Take away all the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.”

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Over the past few years, Tesla has started to lose its market share in the U.S., mostly because more companies have entered the EV manufacturing market and more models are being offered.

Nobody has been able to make a sizeable dent in what Tesla has done, and although its market share has gotten smaller, it still holds nearly half of all EV sales in the U.S.

Tesla’s EV Market Share in the U.S. By Year

    • 2020 – 79%
    • 2021 – 72%
    • 2022 – 62%
    • 2023 – 55%
    • 2024 – 49%

As others are adjusting to what they believe will be tempered demand for their EVs, Tesla has just reported its strongest quarter in company history, with just shy of half a million deliveries.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Although Tesla benefited from the EV tax credit, particularly last quarter, some believe it will have a small impact since it has been lost. The company has many other focuses, with its main priority appearing to be autonomy and AI.

One thing is for sure: Musk was right.

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