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SpaceX Falcon 9 booster spied on highway as triple-satellite launch moves right

Reddit user intamin1 spotted a Falcon 9 booster northbound between Hawthorne and Vandenberg on Jan 22. (Reddit /u/intamin1)

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A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was spotted heading north from the company’s Hawthorne, California factory on January 22nd, signifying a likely shipment of the flight-proven rocket that will help launch Canada’s trio of Radarsat Constellation Mission satellites.

Delayed from mid-February to early March 2019 after an unplanned landing anomaly damaged the Falcon 9 originally assigned to the mission, the shipment of a different booster to Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) helps to narrow down the rocket now likeliest to launch the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) radar satellite constellation.

https://twitter.com/GoForStaging/status/1088174203298230272

Do the Booster Shuffle!

Thanks to a hydraulic pump failure that led Falcon 9 B1050 to land (albeit softly and in one piece) in the Atlantic Ocean last December, the imminent launch of two booster-dense Falcon Heavy missions, and the thus far schedule-shy orbital launch debut of Crew Dragon, SpaceX’s fleet of available boosters – all flight-proven – can be succinctly summarized as “B1046 thru B1049”.

B1050’s future is uncertain after suffering a smashed interstage and soaking in salt water for several days, while B1051 is definitively assigned to Crew Dragon’s orbital launch debut, known as Demo-1 (DM-1). Falcon 9 B1052 and B1053 are unknown quantities and B1054 was expended after a high-value US Air Force launch, also SpaceX’s final mission of 2018. It’s probably safe to bet that B1052, B1053, and B1055 will be the next three boosters to support a Falcon Heavy launch (or two), currently NET March and April 2019. All three of those Falcon Heavy (FH) boosters have completed static fire tests in Texas and both side boosters arrived at SpaceX’s Florida facilities within the last ~6 weeks.

 

Assuming that Falcon Heavy Flight 2 and 3 use the same exact boosters, SpaceX production technicians and engineers may already be nearing the completion of another Falcon 9 booster (B1056, presumably) at the Hawthorne factory, although they are likely 1-2 weeks away from that milestone. If, Falcon Heavy Flight 3 (presumed to be the USAF’s STP-2 mission) does not reuse all three first stage boosters from Flight 2 (commercial payload Arabsat 6A), then Hawthorne will have to build, ship, and test anywhere from 1-3 additional boosters between now and April 2019. In the latter scenario, all unflown – mid-build or completed – Falcon boosters would be ‘claimed’ between now and March or April.

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Put in another way, short of opting for a delay that could stretch 1-4 months or longer, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and Radarsat prime contractor MDA will have to accept one of SpaceX’s flight-proven Falcon 9s.

Falcons on wheels

Thanks to SpaceX’s trusty and well-worn method of using good old trucks and roads to transport Falcon 9 and Heavy boosters, upper stages, fairings, landing legs, and much more cross-country, spaceflight fans have long taken advantage of opportunities – rare and fleeting as they might be – to spot and track SpaceX hardware on public roads. Put simply, a lot of people are excited about SpaceX or are at least familiar and curious enough to know someone to share a photo or observation with. As a result, the community averages dozens of ‘core spottings’ per year. With a little intuition, the process of elimination, a few sources, and some wild guesses, this allows unofficial fans to (very roughly) paint a picture of SpaceX’s fleet of rockets.

 

For example, the Falcon 9 spotted in Valencia, CA on January 22nd by Reddit user intamin1 could theoretically be any SpaceX booster currently in existence. By knowing the rough state of SpaceX’s fleet (as described above) and observing that the booster was northbound between Hawthorne, CA (the factory) and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on Jan 22, a great deal can be intuited. Bound for SpaceX’s West Coast launch complex (SLC-4), it ought to be flightworthy. Knowing that a Falcon Heavy center booster was on SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas static fire stand on January 10th means that the spotted booster can’t (or at least shouldn’t) be coming from Texas, as Falcon Heavy has no known launches planned from VAFB. The process of testing, inspecting, and preparing Falcon boosters for cross-country shipment is also not easily rushed.

On the East Coast, SpaceX needs to launch communications satellite PSN-6 and Spaceflight rideshare GTO-1 in mid to late February. With no new boosters expected to be easily available for months and PSN-6/GTO-1 already entering into the phases of payload fueling, integration, and fairing encapsulation, it can be all but guaranteed that a flight-proven booster was assigned to the mission months ago and is now nearly ready for its third flight somewhere in Cape Canaveral, FL.

SpaceX manufactures Falcon 9 and Heavy at its Hawthorne, CA factory. (SpaceX)

Given that B1046 and B1049 are on the West Coast after conducting launches from VAFB and that B1050 is out of circulation for the time being, only B1047 and B1048 remain (in theory) on the East Coast, both having flown two missions. B1048 was recently spotted and confirmed in photos of SpaceX’s Pad 39A integration hangar, although Falcon 9 B1051 and the first orbit-ready Crew Dragon were the center of attention.

B1047 completed its second launch in mid-November 2018 and returned to one of SpaceX’s Florida hangars for refurbishment around Nov 21. Unless any number of locals and bystanders somehow missed it, neither booster has left the Cape since arriving. Meanwhile, B1048 is currently the best-known candidate at hand for SpaceX’s Crew Dragon In-Flight Abort (IFA) test, expected to occur no earlier than spring 2019 and entirely dependent upon the successful launch, reentry, recovery, and refurbishment of the DM-1 capsule to proceed. As a result, the only booster that is realistically available for PSN-6/GTO-1 is Falcon 9 B1047 for what would be its third launch.

Assuming B1048 did not manage to make it from Cape Canaveral to Central California without a single spotting, the only rockets available for the RCM mission are B1046 and B1049. B1049 completed its second launch – Iridium-8 – just weeks ago and returned by drone ship to Port of LA on January 13th, whereas Falcon 9 B1046 – after completing its historic third launch – completed recovery and was snug in a Hawthorne, CA refurbishment bay by December 17th, 2018. Going off of Occam’s Razor, B1046 is the clear victor for the launch of RCM, although a ~60-90-day turnaround for the already thrice-flown booster could be a stretch. B1049, however, would have barely a single month for refurbishment and inspections.

In the last week or two, RCM stakeholders were provided an updated launch target, delaying the mission by approximately two weeks to a window that begins February 28th with the implication being that the launch is now expected NET early March. If that date is recent and from SpaceX, B1046 is the most practical option, with B1049 thus filling its refurbishment bay in Hawthorne, CA around the same day. If a risk of a 30-day or greater delay is tolerable for CSA and MDA, then B1049.3 would likely be a more optimal fit for their risk tolerance profile. Time will tell!


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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.3.6 review: a rare regression, but some bright spots

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla released Full Self-Driving version 14.3.6 last week, and after what was potentially one of the best FSD releases in v14.3.5, there has been a bit of a regression. While there are some bright spots, the changes made to v14.3.6 seem to have backtracked some behaviors.

Overall, it is hard to really complain about FSD in any sense; it has revolutionized how I travel literally anywhere. According to my self-driving app, the last time I went a day without using it was 59 days ago.

However, I think it’s also important to recognize when things are just plain bad with FSD. There are times it does truly mind-boggling things, and I’ll dive into those here. Additionally, I only had these issues on local roads, not on highways. Highway operation, generally, is always incredible other than the occasional complaint about speed or left lane camping.

With those things being said, my personal experience may not represent others’ experiences. A handful of people have said they have had a similar experience on v14.3.6, while others have said it is more than normal.

Turning Hesitancy, Inaccuracy

I’ve noticed more inaccuracy turning into multi-lane stretches of road than in any version I can remember. I’ve had at least three instances of FSD turning into a stretch of roadway that has two or more lanes, and not selecting a lane confidently as it has in past versions.

Instead, the car will drive over one of the dashed road lines, and the steering wheel will jerk back and forth before picking the lane. It should be said that it has always picked the correct lane when choosing based on the navigation, but it is still very indecisive. The steering wheel jerking is reminiscent of some of the later versions of v13.

I admit I really hate to see the steering wheel jerking come back. However, I think when Tesla releases v14.3.7, it won’t be present. When there are occurrences of it in FSD versions, it is usually resolved by the following release.

FSD Disregards Manual Turn Signals

This is my biggest bone to pick with FSD other than Navigation issues, but this one seems like it would be such an easy fix.

If Tesla is going to put the word “Supervised” on the end of “Full Self-Driving,” then when I tell the car to do something, it should do it. If I input an increase in speed by pressing the accelerator, the car will immediately respond. It does not disregard my input because it feels it is traveling at the right speed.

FSD should never disobey and turn off turn signals that the driver inputs. Trying to direct the car into the correct lane, I had initiated the left turn signal not once, not twice, but three times, with the car turning it off all three times and continuing in a lane that would end in just one block. The only solution at this point would be to zipper merge.

This goes back to the fact that self-driving’s biggest bottleneck might be rider preference. A zipper merge might have been more than reasonable, might have saved me time that I spent sitting through an additional light cycle, and might be something many drivers would do. I was in no hurry, I traditionally do not try to zipper merge because it feels inconsiderate, and lastly, the car should have just followed my input.

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This caused me to disengage and drive manually the rest of the way home. Sometimes I just do not need FSD to try to pass every car it can at intersections.

Bird Braking is a Thing of the Past

The big complaint with recent versions of Full Self-Driving has been what we’ve coined as “bird braking,” which is when the car will brake suddenly as a bird flies past.

There have been zero issues with this so far in v14.3.6, which is an excellent improvement.

FSD Might Already Be Taking Note of Driver Preferences

Another thing I have noticed over the past few days is that v14.3.6 seems to already be taking my preferences with navigation into account.

This is something that is supposed to be rolling out with the Summer Update, but I have a hunch it’s already present and might have been included in this v14.3.6 build. On Friday, FSD pulled into an entrance to a local convenience store that it had never attempted to go into before.

Typically, I manually pull into this entrance because it avoids heavy cross traffic at the main entrance. FSD has always chosen that congested main entrance.

Additionally, FSD has pulled into my assigned parking spot at my townhouse community on multiple occasions with this release. This is something that used to happen ocassionally, but not consistently.

It also navigated back to the same convenience store last night, drove through crazy cars scrambling to gas pumps, navigated out of the parking lot correctly, drove me home, and, once again, parked in my assigned spot.

As previously stated, this release just seems to have a few things that need to be brought to Tesla’s attention, and also to make others who use FSD aware of some things that I’ve experienced. I look forward to the next release that will remedy these issues, just as Tesla has always done in the past.

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Musk’s massive Terafab project will get final location soon

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk’s massive Terafab project, which will be the first true conglomeration between each of his major entities, is set to get its final location soon, the CEO said on Tesla’s recent earnings call.

“The Terafab, we expect to announce a location soon, and provide more details about our plans in that regard. We’ll leave that to the product, the launch announcement rather than try to squeeze it into an earnings call,” Musk said last Wednesday.

Tesla Terafab set for launch: Inside the $20B AI chip factory that will reshape the auto industry

Terafab was announced by Musk back in March and was essentially a massive, vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing project that would provide all the chips the three companies needed for their AI initiatives without needing third-party companies.

The plant will produce over 1 terawatt of AI compute each year, and will help back up projects like Optimus, Full Self-Driving, and other AI-based projects that Musk’s companies are working on.

In April, less than a month after the project was launched, Intel announced it would join the project, contributing manufacturing expertise and consulting to Terafab as a whole. Intel is one of three chip manufacturers that produce sub-5 nanometer chips at scale. TSMC and Samsung are the other two.

However, there was no true indication of where Terafab would end up, but most believe it will likely be somewhere in Texas. Business Insider has reported that SpaceX plans to build out Terafab in Grimes County, Texas, but this is unconfirmed.

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Musk confirmed recently that it would not be on Giga Texas property, as it is simply too large.

Terafab holds much of Musk’s grand ambitions for the future within its construct. It holds so much responsibility for the future and the biggest projects that Musk’s companies can imagine.

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“I think this is a very big announcement and it deserves to have its own day in the spotlight and not be squeezed into an earnings call,” he said. “I do think Terafab is going to be an amazing initiative and a necessary one, and one without which we will be constrained in our ability to scale Optimus production, because we simply won’t have enough AI chips.”

He continued by stating that Terafab is necessary for scaling Optimus, which Musk said could be the biggest product of any kind of all time. “It’s crucial to solve that, and we’ll have to solve memory, logic, and packaging in order to scale Optimus.”

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Elon Musk reveals SpaceX performed secret Starship test on Flight 13

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX performed a secret test on a specific portion of Starship with its recent 13th test flight last week, CEO Elon Musk revealed.

Starship’s 13th test flight took place last Friday, and in many aspects, it was one of the most overwhelmingly successful launches in the project’s history.

All of the mission objectives were met without incident, both the Super Heavy Booster and Ship managed to perform safe splashdowns in the Gulf of America and the Indian Ocean, respectively, and the deployment of Starlink satellites came and went without any complications.

However, there was more on the agenda for SpaceX with Flight 13. Musk revealed an internal test of the ship’s heat shield tiles, as the space exploration company wanted to push them to the limits after previous issues.

Many noticed that Starship’s initial launch seemed to be more accelerated than normal, and that was not a mistake. Musk revealed that SpaceX decided to give Flight 13 an intentionally aggressive acceleration rate in an effort to test how well the tiles would remain attached to the ship:

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SpaceX had issues with some of the heat shield tiles remaining attached early on in the Starship program. The first six test flights presented some kind of anomaly with them, so the company’s big focus with them was to figure out a way to keep them intact through the duration of the flight.

Things truly improved as Flight 10 showed that ceramic tiles generally stayed attached to the ship far better due to refined attachment, as SpaceX utilized pins instead of adhesives. Flights 10 through 13 truly showed some clear progress with the heat shield tiles, and this latest test seems to be where some real progress was noticed, especially by Musk.

The 13th Starship launch last Friday was the second with Starship V3, SpaceX’s latest and greatest iteration of the spacecraft. Goals and ambitions are getting even grander as the project continues to progress. Musk has already hinted that SpaceX will likely try to catch Starship with Flight 14.

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