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SpaceX Falcon 9 booster spied on highway as triple-satellite launch moves right
A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster was spotted heading north from the company’s Hawthorne, California factory on January 22nd, signifying a likely shipment of the flight-proven rocket that will help launch Canada’s trio of Radarsat Constellation Mission satellites.
Delayed from mid-February to early March 2019 after an unplanned landing anomaly damaged the Falcon 9 originally assigned to the mission, the shipment of a different booster to Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) helps to narrow down the rocket now likeliest to launch the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) radar satellite constellation.
https://twitter.com/GoForStaging/status/1088174203298230272
Do the Booster Shuffle!
Thanks to a hydraulic pump failure that led Falcon 9 B1050 to land (albeit softly and in one piece) in the Atlantic Ocean last December, the imminent launch of two booster-dense Falcon Heavy missions, and the thus far schedule-shy orbital launch debut of Crew Dragon, SpaceX’s fleet of available boosters – all flight-proven – can be succinctly summarized as “B1046 thru B1049”.
B1050’s future is uncertain after suffering a smashed interstage and soaking in salt water for several days, while B1051 is definitively assigned to Crew Dragon’s orbital launch debut, known as Demo-1 (DM-1). Falcon 9 B1052 and B1053 are unknown quantities and B1054 was expended after a high-value US Air Force launch, also SpaceX’s final mission of 2018. It’s probably safe to bet that B1052, B1053, and B1055 will be the next three boosters to support a Falcon Heavy launch (or two), currently NET March and April 2019. All three of those Falcon Heavy (FH) boosters have completed static fire tests in Texas and both side boosters arrived at SpaceX’s Florida facilities within the last ~6 weeks.
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- A Falcon Heavy side booster was spotted eastbound in Arizona on November 10th. (Reddit – beast-sam)
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- The second (and third) flight of Falcon Heavy is even closer to reality as the first new side booster heads to Florida after finishing static fire tests in Texas. (Reddit /u/e32revelry)
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- Reddit user wedatsaints captured this photo of the second Falcon Heavy side booster traveling through Mississippi on Jan 16. (Reddit /u/wedatsaints)
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- SpaceX Facebook group member Joshua Murrah captured the second Falcon Heavy side booster to arrive in Florida in the last month. (Joshua Murrah, 01/17/19)
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- A booster – likely the next Falcon Heavy center core – was vertical at McGregor’s S1 static fire stand. (Instagram /u/tcryguy)
Assuming that Falcon Heavy Flight 2 and 3 use the same exact boosters, SpaceX production technicians and engineers may already be nearing the completion of another Falcon 9 booster (B1056, presumably) at the Hawthorne factory, although they are likely 1-2 weeks away from that milestone. If, Falcon Heavy Flight 3 (presumed to be the USAF’s STP-2 mission) does not reuse all three first stage boosters from Flight 2 (commercial payload Arabsat 6A), then Hawthorne will have to build, ship, and test anywhere from 1-3 additional boosters between now and April 2019. In the latter scenario, all unflown – mid-build or completed – Falcon boosters would be ‘claimed’ between now and March or April.
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Put in another way, short of opting for a delay that could stretch 1-4 months or longer, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and Radarsat prime contractor MDA will have to accept one of SpaceX’s flight-proven Falcon 9s.
Falcons on wheels
Thanks to SpaceX’s trusty and well-worn method of using good old trucks and roads to transport Falcon 9 and Heavy boosters, upper stages, fairings, landing legs, and much more cross-country, spaceflight fans have long taken advantage of opportunities – rare and fleeting as they might be – to spot and track SpaceX hardware on public roads. Put simply, a lot of people are excited about SpaceX or are at least familiar and curious enough to know someone to share a photo or observation with. As a result, the community averages dozens of ‘core spottings’ per year. With a little intuition, the process of elimination, a few sources, and some wild guesses, this allows unofficial fans to (very roughly) paint a picture of SpaceX’s fleet of rockets.
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- Reddit user intamin1 spotted a Falcon 9 booster northbound between Hawthorne and Vandenberg on Jan 22. (Reddit /u/intamin1)
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- A booster – likely the next Falcon Heavy center core – was vertical at McGregor’s S1 static fire stand. (Instagram /u/tcryguy)
For example, the Falcon 9 spotted in Valencia, CA on January 22nd by Reddit user intamin1 could theoretically be any SpaceX booster currently in existence. By knowing the rough state of SpaceX’s fleet (as described above) and observing that the booster was northbound between Hawthorne, CA (the factory) and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on Jan 22, a great deal can be intuited. Bound for SpaceX’s West Coast launch complex (SLC-4), it ought to be flightworthy. Knowing that a Falcon Heavy center booster was on SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas static fire stand on January 10th means that the spotted booster can’t (or at least shouldn’t) be coming from Texas, as Falcon Heavy has no known launches planned from VAFB. The process of testing, inspecting, and preparing Falcon boosters for cross-country shipment is also not easily rushed.
On the East Coast, SpaceX needs to launch communications satellite PSN-6 and Spaceflight rideshare GTO-1 in mid to late February. With no new boosters expected to be easily available for months and PSN-6/GTO-1 already entering into the phases of payload fueling, integration, and fairing encapsulation, it can be all but guaranteed that a flight-proven booster was assigned to the mission months ago and is now nearly ready for its third flight somewhere in Cape Canaveral, FL.
Given that B1046 and B1049 are on the West Coast after conducting launches from VAFB and that B1050 is out of circulation for the time being, only B1047 and B1048 remain (in theory) on the East Coast, both having flown two missions. B1048 was recently spotted and confirmed in photos of SpaceX’s Pad 39A integration hangar, although Falcon 9 B1051 and the first orbit-ready Crew Dragon were the center of attention.
B1047 completed its second launch in mid-November 2018 and returned to one of SpaceX’s Florida hangars for refurbishment around Nov 21. Unless any number of locals and bystanders somehow missed it, neither booster has left the Cape since arriving. Meanwhile, B1048 is currently the best-known candidate at hand for SpaceX’s Crew Dragon In-Flight Abort (IFA) test, expected to occur no earlier than spring 2019 and entirely dependent upon the successful launch, reentry, recovery, and refurbishment of the DM-1 capsule to proceed. As a result, the only booster that is realistically available for PSN-6/GTO-1 is Falcon 9 B1047 for what would be its third launch.
Few of my favorites from today's Pence visit to #SpaceX pad 39A. In first photo, from left to right: Previously flown B1048, booster for DM-1, Crew Dragon for DM-1. Look at the size of that Merlin engine bell.
More photos: https://t.co/6dMbampx2c pic.twitter.com/3KmjVj4Rvf
-— Emre Kelly (@EmreKelly) December 18, 2018
Assuming B1048 did not manage to make it from Cape Canaveral to Central California without a single spotting, the only rockets available for the RCM mission are B1046 and B1049. B1049 completed its second launch – Iridium-8 – just weeks ago and returned by drone ship to Port of LA on January 13th, whereas Falcon 9 B1046 – after completing its historic third launch – completed recovery and was snug in a Hawthorne, CA refurbishment bay by December 17th, 2018. Going off of Occam’s Razor, B1046 is the clear victor for the launch of RCM, although a ~60-90-day turnaround for the already thrice-flown booster could be a stretch. B1049, however, would have barely a single month for refurbishment and inspections.
In the last week or two, RCM stakeholders were provided an updated launch target, delaying the mission by approximately two weeks to a window that begins February 28th with the implication being that the launch is now expected NET early March. If that date is recent and from SpaceX, B1046 is the most practical option, with B1049 thus filling its refurbishment bay in Hawthorne, CA around the same day. If a risk of a 30-day or greater delay is tolerable for CSA and MDA, then B1049.3 would likely be a more optimal fit for their risk tolerance profile. Time will tell!
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Tesla headlights have caused a recall of over 20,000 of the company’s two most popular vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y, due to the low-beam bulb exceeding the maximum allowed intensity according to federal standards.
Tesla initiated the recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) this morning, stating that the low-beam output “exceeds the maximum allowed intensity in the outer upper-right and outer upper-left areas of the 10U and 90U zone, as prescribed in FMVSS No. 108.”
Tesla sourced the impacted headlights from Marelli Automotive Lighting, a Mexico-based company. The recall impacts 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles and 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles. It is estimated that every VIN in this recall is impacted by the defect.
🚨 Tesla is recalling 20,349 2020-23 Model Y vehicles and 2017-23 Model 3 vehicles due to an excessively bright headlamp low beam.
Currently, there is no remedy plan in place, as it is still being developed. pic.twitter.com/y34cIO2U0B
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 11, 2026
Typically, Tesla would remedy recalls of this nature through an Over-the-Air software update, which has been a major focus of criticism by the company and its supporters because the NHTSA still refers to it as a “recall,” even though it requires no action by the vehicle owner. The fix is shipped over the internet and downloaded to the car.
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However, there appears to be a potentially different solution for this problem. Tesla has not developed a remedy for this issue, so it could potentially be on the way. The big issue appears to be the fact that these recalled lamps are out of production, and this is an old body style for both vehicles. The headlights and front-end designs are completely different.
Tesla switched to another supplier when the affected headlight design was discontinued. It plans to begin notifying owners of their remedy options by September 15.
Tesla filed a petition protesting the recall to fix the vehicles’ headlight issue, but the NHTSA denied it. Now, Tesla will come up with a solution to fix it.
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
