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SpaceX still an option for future Amazon internet satellite launches, says Senior VP

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An Amazon executive says that the company could still call on SpaceX to launch some of its Project Kuiper internet satellites after two of the three unproven rockets it purchased announced launch delays days apart.

Amazon began work on Project Kuiper in 2018. When SpaceX CEO Elon Musk fired several senior employees overseeing the company’s Starlink satellite internet program for being overly cautious, at least two of those employees immediately landed in senior positions at Project Kuiper. Four years later and more than two years after Amazon received an FCC license to deploy its 3,236-satellite Project Kuiper constellation, which aims to compete directly with SpaceX’s Starlink, the company’s first prototype satellite launch has changed rockets and slipped from late 2022 to early 2023.

Of the 77 firm launch contracts Amazon has signed since April 2021, only nine are for a rocket – United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) Atlas V – that has already successfully flown. The remaining 68 (and another 15 exercisable options) are spread among ULA’s Vulcan Centaur, Arianespace’s Ariane 6, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn, all of which are months away from their first launch attempts.

On October 10th, ULA CEO Tory Bruno told reporters that Vulcan Centaur’s launch debut had slipped from its latest late-2022 target to no earlier than (NET) “early 2023.” Garnering 38 of 77 firm contracts, Vulcan is the single most important rocket for Amazon’s Project Kuiper plans and is likely expected to launch close to half of all Kuiper satellites.

Nine days later, Ariane Group and the European Space Agency (ESA) announced that Ariane 6’s launch debut had also slipped from a late-2022 target. Unlike Vulcan’s gentle early-2023 slip, Ariane 6’s debut was pushed to late 2023 at the earliest, and ESA and Ariane officials frankly admitted that that could easily become 2024. Excluding options, Ariane 6 won 18 Project Kuiper launch contracts and is the constellation’s second most important rocket.

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Because Amazon applied for its Project Kuiper license so early, a six-year countdown started when the FCC approved its license in July 2020. If Amazon fails to launch half of its 3,236 satellites within six years of that receipt, the FCC could revoke Kuiper’s constellation license. While it’s unlikely that the FCC would actually revoke the license of a constellation that’s close to achieving its deployment milestones, the deadline still emphasizes just how far Amazon and its suppliers are falling behind.

Vulcan, Ariane 6, and Project Kuiper prototype launch delays have only worsened an already challenging situation. In addition to the rocket’s long-awaited debut, ULA has major obligations to NASA and the US military, who expect Vulcan to complete up to four more launches in 2023. Unless ULA pulls off a minor miracle, it’s unlikely that Vulcan will be able to launch five times in its first year of service. Respectively, ULA’s Atlas V and Delta IV rockets took 2.5 and 3.5 years to reach that milestone. If ULA’s past record serves as a reasonable guide for its future, it’s possible that Vulcan Centaur won’t have the spare capacity to begin Project Kuiper launches until 2025.

The same is arguably true for Ariane 6, which has an even busier manifest – all of which may be delayed to 2024. Of Arianespace’s two most recent rockets, Ariane 4 took 14 months and Ariane 5 took 53 months to complete their first five fully successful launches. Ariane 6 borrows heavily from Ariane 5’s design. Unless Arianespace gets off to a record-breaking start or prioritizes Amazon over ESA and other European operators, an almost unthinkable scenario, it’s difficult to imagine that Ariane 6 will have the spare capacity to begin Project Kuiper launches before 2025 or 2026.

Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, which is years behind schedule and unlikely to debut before late 2023 or 2024, might ironically be Amazon’s best bet for the first dedicated Project Kuiper launch, but only if its debut is near-flawless and doesn’t slip any further. Given that New Glenn will be Blue Origin’s first orbital rocket of any kind, more delays and issues (if not an outright failure) on the first launch are likely. New Glenn is thus also unlikely to be ready to launch large batches of Project Kuiper satellites until 2024 or 2025. Given the record of its suborbital New Shepard rocket, the odds are also against Blue Origin quickly ramping up the cadence of a far more complex orbital launch vehicle.

Only Atlas V appears to have any significant chance of beginning large-scale Project Kuiper launches before 2025. But ULA is shutting down Atlas V production to transition to Vulcan, so it’s impossible for Amazon to order more than nine of the rockets, as ULA.

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Unfortunately for Amazon, in addition to the many rocket-side issues facing Project Kuiper, its satellite prototype delays will make it even harder for the company to begin large-scale launches sooner than later. SpaceX, now the proud owner of a majority of all working satellites in orbit, took around 21 months to go from launching its first two prototypes to its first batch of 60 operational Starlink satellites. The satellite design it settled on was almost nothing like the first two prototypes.

Three batches and two generations of SpaceX Starlink satellites. (SpaceX)

If Amazon’s first prototypes launch on Vulcan’s early-2023 debut, perform excellently, meet or exceed expectations after just a few months of testing, and are close to the final satellite design, Project Kuiper may still have a shot at manufacturing enough satellites to fill one or more launches in 2024. But if its first satellites run into major issues, Amazon’s decision to “[bring] up manufacturing of…production satellites [in parallel with prototype development]” could set it back months if it’s forced to redesign its satellites, find new suppliers, or significantly change the factory it’s already building.

Combined, Project Kuiper finds itself in an unenviable position. It’s thus unsurprising that as of October 2022, an Amazon executive appears to have changed their tune about using SpaceX rockets. Over the last ~13 months, SpaceX has become the single most productive launch provider in the world, besting the entire nation of China. On a quarterly basis, SpaceX now launches more useful mass to orbit than the rest of the world combined. It’s also the only launch provider on Earth that can create spare capacity for last-minute customers by shuffling its own internal launch demands.

According to Dave Limp, senior vice president of devices and services at Amazon, Project Kuiper is willing to consider taking advantage of some of SpaceX’s unprecedented capabilities after it shunned the company entirely in earlier contracts and statements. Speaking in a Washington Post Live interview, Limp says that Amazon is “open to contracting with anyone” and understands “that heavy launch capacity is [and will likely remain] pretty constrained” for years to come.

Unfortunately, Limp began by falsely asserting that Falcon 9 was too small to have warranted earlier launch contracts, stating that it’s “probably at the low end of…the capacity that we need.” In an expendable configuration, Falcon 9 can launch more than 22 tons (~48,500 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO), while Ariane 6 is quoted at [PDF] 21.7 tons (~47,800 lb). While it hasn’t flown, SpaceX also offers an extended payload fairing that should more or less match Vulcan and Ariane 6’s largest fairings.

But Limp expressed interest in SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket, which could likely match or come close to the payload volume of Ariane 6 and Vulcan and far exceed either rocket’s performance to LEO. In a configuration that would allow SpaceX to recover all three of Falcon Heavy’s boosters, almost guaranteeing that it would cost less than Vulcan or Ariane 6, the rocket would likely be able to launch around 40-50 tons (90,000-110,000 lb) to LEO. The Amazon executive even brought up SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket as a more desirable option for future Project Kuiper launches. Starship is designed to launch anywhere from 100 to 150 tons to LEO, should cost even less than Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy, and will eventually feature a payload bay that dwarfs even New Glenn’s massive fairing.

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Nonetheless, despite the promise of SpaceX, Amazon appears to be in no rush to hedge its bets on Vulcan, Ariane 6, and New Glenn. Only time will tell if its multi-billion-dollar gamble pays off.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla all but confirms that affordable Model Y is coming Tuesday

It does appear that October 7 would be the date when the world sees Tesla’s actual idea of what an affordable vehicle would be like.

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Tesla has released a cryptic teaser of a product that would be announced on Tuesday, October 7, 2025. Based on the company’s hint, it does appear that the product would be the affordable Model Y that has been spotted doing road tests across the country over the past months.

Affordable Model Y sightings

Last week, news emerged that a number of key Tesla influencers visited Gigafactory Texas for a private event. These included veteran Tesla YouTubers, car reviewers, influencers on X, and even a teardown expert who provided the initial insights on how to improve the original Model 3 sedan. At the same time, an uncovered unit of the apparent affordable Model Y was posted online. The vehicle was reportedly sighted close to Giga Texas. 

The new Model Y variant had some notable changes from the standard Model Y. Its fascia seemed inspired by the Model 3 sedan instead of the Cybertruck, and its roof seemed blacked out. Overall, it looked like a simpler Model Y designed to be offered at an affordable price. 

The weekend teasers

Teasers about an upcoming product were posted by Tesla’s official account on social media platform X, though the electric vehicle maker made it a point to keep things very vague. Initially, a closeup video of what appeared to be an aero wheel was posted, though it was vague enough that some speculated that it could be Elon Musk’s long-announced HVAC system instead. 

On Sunday, another teaser video was posted featuring the headlights of a new car. This brought speculations that the new Roadster might finally be announced. Inasmuch as a new Roadster unveiling would be exciting, however, it was evident that the headlights in the new teaser were a match to the uncovered affordable Model Y unit that was spotted close to Giga Texas a few days ago. With this in mind, it does appear that October 7 would be the date when the world sees Tesla’s actual idea of what an affordable vehicle would be like.

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Tesla releases cryptic teaser for something massive and it’s coming this week

On Sunday morning, Tesla released a nine-second teaser video of what appears to be either a vehicle wheel, fan, or some sort of propeller, but there are no real clues as to what it could be exactly.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has released a cryptic teaser for something massive, and it will release details on it this week. With many different projects in the works, there is a lot of speculation going on about what it could potentially be, but we have a few ideas.

On Sunday morning, Tesla released a nine-second teaser video of what appears to be either a vehicle wheel, fan, or some sort of propeller, but there are no real clues as to what it could be exactly.

It then ends with “10/7,” meaning it will announce something on October 7, which is this Tuesday:

Given that Tesla has been working on a handful of pretty notable projects that are set for unveiling at the end of this year, and there are some clues that seem to point in their direction with this short teaser video.

There are two projects that come to mind almost immediately: the Tesla Roadster is one, and the “E41” or affordable model is the other. Here’s what we know about both:

Tesla Roadster Demo Event

Tesla said earlier this year that it would have a demo event for the Roadster to unveil some new technologies and show off what it has been working on over the past few years.

There have been a lot of crazy things in the works for the Roadster, including a SpaceX package that would use cold-gas thrusters for an insane 1.1-second 0-60 MPH acceleration rate. This package was also supposed to help it hover, something CEO Elon Musk has teased for the past few years.

The Roadster was ready for release earlier this year, but after Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen and VP of Powertrain Lars Moravy showed Musk what they had come up with, he wanted more.

Moravy said on the Ride the Lightning podcast earlier this year:

“What we had come up with exceeded what we originally planned. So, Elon was like, ‘Wow, great. Let’s do more!'”

The Roadster event was coined as “the most epic demo,” and since it was planned for the end of 2025, it is totally feasible to believe this could be it.

Elon Musk teases Tesla’s “most epic demo” by end of year

Tesla ‘E41’ Affordable Model

Some believe the teaser could be the official launch of Tesla’s affordable model, which Musk said earlier this year is simply a stripped down Model Y.

There have been some sightings of this vehicle in the past few weeks, including one on Friday that showed the vehicle completely uncovered for the first time:

The launch of the affordable model makes sense, especially from a timing perspective. With the $7,500 EV tax credit officially coming to a close on September 30, many are wondering how Tesla will spark growth in its deliveries. A more affordable EV would be the perfect response, and it is something that Tesla has been working on for some time.

Other Potential Ideas

There are some pretty interesting ideas as to what the teaser could be apart from the Roadster or affordable model. Some believe it could be a cooling fan for a GPU cluster, which would make sense considering Tesla’s prowess in data.

Grok also made an interesting guess, stating it could be a propeller for a secret air taxi Tesla is developing. This seems sort of our of left field.

We do know Tesla hosted a handful of influencers at Gigafactory Texas this past week, so whatever the company showed them is likely what will be unveiled on Tuesday.

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Tesla Optimus is learning martial arts in new video teasing capabilities

For the past few months, Tesla has been refining its capabilities and making some serious progress on what Optimus is capable of. This morning, Musk released a new video showing Optimus learning Kung Fu, perhaps its most impressive feat yet.

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Credit: Elon Musk | X

Tesla Optimus is learning martial arts, a new video released by CEO Elon Musk shows, a crazy development and advancement in the robotics project the company has been working on for a few years.

Optimus has been a major focus of Tesla for the past several years, especially as Musk has said he believes it will be the biggest product of all time and could be the biggest contributor to the company’s valuation.

For the past few months, Tesla has been refining its capabilities and making some serious progress on what Optimus is capable of. This morning, Musk released a new video showing Optimus learning Kung Fu, perhaps its most impressive feat yet:

The video shows Optimus working with a Kung Fu teacher, known as a Shifu, going through what appears to be some sort of routine of combinations. It’s quite impressive to see the fluidity of the movements and Optimus’s ability to keep up with Shifu.

Tesla has been “working hard” to scale Optimus production, Musk said last week, a project that has obviously confronted both AI and manufacturing teams with a variety of challenges.

The plan is to have an annual production run-rate of one million units by 2030, and there were plans to build 5,000 units this year.

Elon Musk gives update on Tesla Optimus progress

Musk still believes Optimus will make up roughly 80 percent of Tesla’s value. In January, he said it would be “overwhelmingly the value of the company.”

Tesla plans to launch the Gen 3 version of Optimus soon, and although a video of a new-look prototype was released by Marc Benioff, the CEO of Salesforce, the company’s frontman stated that this was not what the next-generation prototype would look like.

Elon Musk confirms Tesla has never shown Optimus V3 design yet

This video seems to show there is still significant progress being made on the Optimus project, and it will be perhaps one of the most impressive humanoid robots available to consumers in the coming years.

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