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SpaceX’s fifth Falcon Heavy launch on track for Sunday liftoff

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Update: SpaceX’s fifth Falcon Heavy launch is on track to launch as early as 5:56 pm EST (22:56 UTC), Sunday, January 15th. Tune in below around 5:40 pm EST (22:40 UTC) to watch the potentially spectacular launch live.

If Falcon Heavy does launch shortly after sunset, it could put on a spectacular show, lighting up the twilight skies for hundreds of miles up and down the East Coast.

The fifth Falcon Heavy rolled out of SpaceX’s Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A integration hangar on January 9th and went vertical early on January 10th. 12 hours later, it was loaded with ~1500 tons (~3.3 million lbs) of liquid oxygen and kerosene propellant and ignited for about eight seconds. SpaceX uses static fire tests more liberally than most other launch providers to try to ensure that all systems – propulsion included – are cooperating before liftoff.

At full throttle, Falcon Heavy Block 5’s 27 Merlin 1D engines – nine per Falcon 9-derived booster – can produce 2326 tons (5.13 million lbf) of thrust at sea level, making it the most powerful privately-developed rocket in history. In terms of performance, Falcon Heavy is the fifth most capable rocket ever built and is second only to NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) today. While the records of N1, Saturn V, and Energia still stand, all three were retired decades ago.

As is the norm for a rocket with as little experience as Falcon Heavy, SpaceX conducted the static fire test without the USSF-67 payload installed. Like USSF-44, a virtually identical Falcon Heavy launch with similar payloads that launched on November 1st, 2022, SpaceX needs to roll the USSF-67 rocket back to the hangar for fairing installation. During USSF-44, SpaceX took approximately 110 hours to go from static fire to liftoff.

USSF-67’s static fire occurred about 100-104 hours before its scheduled liftoff, meaning that SpaceX only needs to be about 5% more efficient to be ready to launch on Saturday, January 14th. Assuming Falcon Heavy returns to the hangar and rolls back to the pad about as quickly as USSF-44, the odds of a Saturday launch are decent.

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USSF-44’s static fire. (SpaceX)
USSF-44 rolls out a second time after payload fairing installation. (Richard Angle)
USSF-44 took about four and a half days to go from static fire to liftoff. (SpaceX)

SpaceX’s second direct GEO launch

Like USSF-44, Falcon Heavy will sacrifice one of its three boosters (the center core) to launch USSF-67 directly to a circular geosynchronous orbit ~35,800 kilometers (~22,250 mi) above Earth’s surface. A satellite operating at GSO will never stray from the same region of Earth, making it useful for communications and surveillance. Getting there, however, can be exceptionally difficult.

“To simplify the rocket’s job, most GEO-bound satellites are launched into an elliptical geosynchronous or geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) and use their own propulsion to circularize that ellipse.

On a direct-to-GEO launch, the rocket does almost all of the work. After reaching a parking orbit in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Falcon Heavy’s upper stage will complete a second burn to reach GTO. Then, while conducting a complex ballet of thermal management and tank pressure maintenance to prevent all of its cryogenic liquid oxygen (LOx) from boiling into gas and its refined kerosene (RP-1) from freezing into an unusable slush, the upper stage must coast ‘uphill’ for around five or six hours.

During that journey from 300 kilometers to 35,800 kilometers, the upper stage must also survive passes through both of Earth’s Van Allen radiation belts. At apogee, Falcon S2 must reignite its Merlin Vacuum engine for a minute or two to reach a circular GSO. Payload deployment follows soon after and could last anywhere from a few minutes to hours. Finally, to be a dutiful space tenant, Falcon’s upper stage must complete at least one more burn to reach a graveyard orbit a few hundred kilometers above GEO.”

Teslarati.com – November 1st, 2023

The USSF-67 payload is mostly a mystery. Like USSF-44, it will carry a Northrop Grumman LDPE (Long Duration Propulsive EELV) with several unspecified rideshare payloads. LPDE is a transfer vehicle capable of deploying small satellites into customized orbits and hosting payloads for months in space.

The US Space Systems Command says [PDF] that “LDPE provides critical data to inform future Space Force programs” and that “the unique experiments and prototype payloads hosted on LDPE-3A [will] advance warfighting capabilities in the areas of on-orbit threat assessment, space hazard detection, and space domain awareness.”

Stay tuned for updates on USSF-67’s launch schedule and SpaceX’s official webcast.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Robotaxi app update now tells riders if Cybercab is the better choice

Tesla’s Robotaxi app now shows ETAs, wait times and availability for Cybercab and Model Y.

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Concept art of a Tesla Cybercab in Las Vegas Strip as rendered via Grok

Tesla has rolled out a new vehicle selection screen in its Robotaxi app, and it puts the numbers riders care about most in front of them before they book.

Version 26.11.0 of the app shows the estimated arrival time, the expected wait and current availability for each vehicle option on a single screen, according to a video shared by @gheeunit  on X on November 7. Riders deciding between a Cybercab and a Model Y Robotaxi can now compare those figures side by side instead of picking a car first and learning how long it will take afterward.

Tesla first gave riders that choice on September 3, the day paid Cybercab rides began in Austin. The original version of the screen listed the Cybercab, which seats two, next to the Model Y, which seats four. A later build, 26.8.2, added a seating capacity indicator so groups knew which car would fit them. What it did not show was whether choosing the Cybercab meant standing on the curb a few extra minutes.

That question matters more now than it did two months ago. Tesla had 45 Cybercabs on the Texas DMV roster when rides started. By late October the state listed 573, alongside 631 Model Ys, and community trackers logged a record 1,576 Cybercab sightings across Austin on Halloween alone. With two large fleets sharing one service area, the closest car and the quickest pickup are not always the same vehicle.

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Inline availability also changes what happens when demand spikes. If no Cybercab is free nearby, the rider sees that on the selection screen rather than after trying to book one.

For now the comparison is mostly an Austin feature. Riders in Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth and the Florida markets are still matched with Model Y vehicles, though Tesla said on its third quarter earnings call that Cybercab rides would launch in Dallas this month.

The update follows a steady run of smaller changes to the rider experience. Late last month Tesla brought a quiet mode that blacks out the cabin screen to Model Y Robotaxis after first testing it in the Cybercab, and it has stretched Austin service to run from 6 a.m. to 2 a.m.

The Cybercab side of that selection screen is about to get much busier. Elon Musk said this week that Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of 2027 to make room for more Cybercab output, and Tesla has said it is aiming to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year.

Tesla has not published official release notes for version 26.11.0.

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Tesla is ending Cybertruck production

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Credit: diagnosticdennis/Instagram and @smile__no via Tesla Owners of Santa Clarita Valley/X

Tesla is ending Cybertruck production sometime in mid-2027, according to CEO Elon Musk.

Musk made the announcement on X last night, which came as a shock to many. He said that the Cybertruck will end production “to make room for increased Cybercab production” at Gigafactory Texas.

It is a huge blow to the fans of Tesla who have come to love the Cybertruck and identify with it as a symbol of their fandom. It has been the best-selling electric pickup, but it has had an underwhelming sales performance in terms of what was expected. This is mostly due to Tesla not meeting the prices it planned to offer the Cybertruck, as its unveiling and actual release were four years apart.

Overall, the responses were mixed. Some fans understood the move toward Cybercab production, especially as Tesla is truly pushing the autonomous future through its Robotaxi platform. However, others did not understand it.

“Damn, how many Cybercabs do you guys need?” one response read. Another said it was “Sad but understandable.”Even analyst Gary Black had responded to the news, stating he hoped Tesla planned to replace it with a traditional pickup design.

It doesn’t seem like that will be the case.

Tesla is so hell-bent on delivering autonomy and eventually providing a driverless service that owning a car seems like an arbitrary idea, according to their thesis. Instead, Cybercabs will be available to pick you up and drop you off on demand, safely, without any human help.

As a result, Tesla has thinned its lineup considerably, and one can only ask where the vehicle lineup goes from here. Eventually, it seems like Cybercab could be the only vehicle that Tesla will sell.

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SpaceX’s next Starship flight set to make history on Friday the 13th

SpaceX is targeting Friday, November 13 for Starship Flight 15 and its first ship catch.

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SpaceX is targeting Friday, November 13 for Starship Flight 15, the mission the company plans to use for its first attempt at catching the ship itself with the launch tower.

SpaceX Vice President of Launch Kiko Dontchev shared the date on stage at the UP.Summit on Thursday, according to Ars Technica’s Eric Berger, who was in attendance. It is the first launch target to come directly from a SpaceX executive. Until now, the public schedule had relied on FAA air traffic planning slides, which listed Flight 15 for no earlier than November 8 and later November 12. SpaceX has not posted an official mission page yet, and no launch time has been shared.

The date lands inside the window Elon Musk sketched out last month. Speaking at Giga Texas on October 10, Musk said the flight would “probably launch a little bit before Thanksgiving,” as Teslarati reported. On SpaceX’s third quarter earnings call ten days later, he confirmed that Flight 15 would try to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the ship, and put the odds of a successful ship catch at “more likely than not.” SpaceX also aired an animation of the maneuver during that webcast, showing the ship swinging vertical over Starbase before dropping into the tower’s chopsticks.

The hardware is ready. Booster 22 fired all 33 of its Raptor engines for a full duration static fire at Pad 2 on October 25. Ship 42 followed with a single engine burn simulating a deorbit maneuver on October 26 and a 60 second firing of all six engines the next day, according to NASASpaceflight. Ship 42 had already rehearsed the catch in September, when the Pad 2 arms lifted it into position and crews connected the quick disconnect arm while the vehicle hung from the tower.

The remaining hurdle is regulatory. The FAA’s Starship page does not yet list a Flight 15 license. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said in October that, after “significant constructive engagement with the FAA,” she expects the license to cover a return to the launch site and a tower catch for both stages. Bringing the ship home means a reentry path that heads toward land, rather than ending over open ocean as every Starship flight so far has.

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SpaceX has caught Super Heavy three times, on Flights 5, 7 and 8, but the ship comes back from orbital velocity and has never been caught. Flight 14 on September 28 was the first Starship to reach orbit, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites before splashing down despite an early engine shutdown that Musk blamed on engine computer software.

Musk has called a successful ship catch “the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket,” and he has already named the step after it: a Flight 16 where both the booster and the ship fly again. NASASpaceflight reports that Ship 43, the next vehicle in line, is set for static fire testing in December.

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