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SpaceX set to launch NASA astronauts first after Boeing narrowly avoids catastrophe in space
SpaceX is set to become the first private company to launch NASA astronauts as few as three months from now, all but guaranteed after Boeing’s competing Starliner spacecraft narrowly avoided a catastrophe in space on its orbital launch debut.
The ultimate purpose of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP) is to ensure that the US is once again able to launch its own astronauts into orbit and to the International Space Station (ISS) – a capability the country has not possessed since it prematurely canceled the Space Shuttle in 2011. In a logical step, NASA decided to fund two independent companies to ensure that astronaut launch capabilities would be insulated against any single failure, ultimately awarding contracts to Boeing and SpaceX in 2014. Boeing did actually try to have Congress snub SpaceX back in 2014 and solely award the contract to Starliner, but the company thankfully failed.
As a result, SpaceX beating Boeing on the (not-a-) race to launch NASA astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) would represent an immense and deeply embarrassing upset in the traditional aerospace industry – essentially a case of David and Goliath. For the better part of a decade, Congress, most industry officials, and Boeing itself have argued ad nauseum the Starliner spacecraft was clearly a far safer bet than anything built by SpaceX – Boeing, obviously, has far more experience (“heritage”) in the spaceflight industry. However, multiple “catastrophic” failures during Boeing’s recent Starliner ‘Orbital Flight Test’ (OFT) paint a far uglier picture.
As its PR team and executives will constantly remind anyone within earshot, Boeing helped build the first stage of the Saturn V rocket, while a company it bought years after the fact (Rockwell) did technically buy the company (North American) that built the spacecraft (Apollo CSM) that carried NASA astronauts from the Earth to the Moon (and back). Rockwell (acquired by Boeing) also built all five of NASA’s Space Shuttle orbiters.
In the 1990s, Boeing – set to lose a competition to build an expendable rocket for the US military – acquired McDonnell Douglas at the last second, slapping a Boeing sticker on the Delta IV rocket – designed and built by MD. Boeing then conspired to steal trade secrets from Lockheed Martin (bidding Atlas V) and used that stolen info to mislead the USAF about the real cost of Delta IV, thus securing the more lucrative of two possible contracts. This is all to point out the simple fact that Boeing has far less real experience designing spacecraft than it tends to act like it does.
As such, it’s substantially less surprising than it might otherwise be that Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft has had such a rocky orbital launch debut. Preceded just a matter of weeks by a quality assurance failure that prevented one of Starliner’s four parachutes from deploying after an otherwise-successful pad abort test, a second Starliner spacecraft launched atop an Atlas V rocket on its orbital launch debut (OFT) on December 20th, 2019. Atlas V performed flawlessly but immediately after Starliner separated from the rocket, things went very wrong.
Bad software ultimately caused the spacecraft to perform thousands of uncommanded maneuvering thruster burns, depleting a majority of its propellant before Boeing was able to intervene. Starliner managed to place itself in low Earth orbit (LEO), but by then it had nowhere near enough propellant left to rendezvous and dock with the ISS – one of the most crucial purposes of the uncrewed flight test. Unable to complete that part of the mission, Boeing instead did a few small tests over the course of 48 hours in orbit before commanding the spacecraft’s reentry and landing on December 22nd.
But wait, there’s more!
As it turns out, although both NASA and Boeing inexplicably withheld the information from the public for more than two months, Boeing’s OFT Starliner spacecraft reportedly almost suffered a second major software failure just hours before reentry. According to NASA and Boeing comments in a press conference held only after news of that second failure broke after an advisory panel broached the issue in February 2020, a second Starliner software bug – caught only because the first failure forced Boeing to double-check its code – could have had far more catastrophic consequences.
NASA officials stated that had the second bug not been caught, some of Starliner’s thruster valves would have been frozen, either entirely preventing or severely hampering the spacecraft’s detached trunk from properly maneuvering in orbit. Apparently, that service module (carrying fuel, abort engines, a solar array, and more) could have crashed into the crew module shortly after detaching from it. Unsurprisingly, that ‘recontact’ could have severely damaged the Starliner crew capsule, potentially making reentry impossible (or even fatal) if its relatively fragile heat shield bore the brunt of that impact.
SpaceX has undeniably suffered its own significant failures, most notably when flight-proven Crew Dragon capsule C201 exploded moments before a static fire test, but the company has already proven that it fixed the source of the failure with the spacecraft’s second successful launch on a Falcon 9 rocket. Ultimately, it’s becoming nearly impossible to rationally argue that Boeing’s Starliner will be safer than SpaceX’s Crew Dragon – let alone worth the 40% premium Boeing is charging NASA and the US taxpayer.
According to Ars Technica’s Eric Berger, Crew Dragon’s inaugural astronaut launch is now tentatively scheduled as early as late-April to late-May 2020. Paperwork – not technical hurdles – is currently the source of that uncertainty, and all Demo-2 mission hardware (Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon) is either already in Florida or days away from arriving.
Due to the combination of similar software failures Starliner suffered during its first and only launch, Boeing now has to review the entirety of the spacecraft’s software – more than a million lines of code – before NASA will allow the company to launch again. There’s also a very good chance that Boeing will now have to repeat the Orbital Flight Test, potentially incurring major delays. In short, it would take nothing less than a miracle – or NASA making a public mockery of itself for Boeing’s benefit – for Starliner to launch astronauts before SpaceX.
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Tesla rolling out Robotaxi pilot in SF Bay Area this weekend: report
Similar to the Austin pilot, the Robotaxi rides will reportedly be a paid service.
Tesla is reportedly preparing to launch a Robotaxi pilot program in the Bay Area this weekend, with invites to a select number of customers reportedly being sent out as early as this Friday.
The update was shared in a report from Insider, which cited an internal memo from the electric vehicle maker.
New Robotaxi service launch
According to Insider, the Robotaxi service in the Bay Area is set to launch as soon as Friday. Thus, some Tesla owners in the area should receive invites to use the driverless ride-hailing service. Similar to the Austin pilot, the Robotaxi rides will reportedly be a paid service.
The publication noted that the Robotaxi service’s geofence in its Bay Area launch will be quite large, as it will include Marin, much of the East Bay, San Francisco, and San Jose. This is not surprising as California has long been saturated with Teslas, and it is home to several of the electric vehicle maker’s key facilities.
Unlike the Austin pilot, the Tesla Robotaxi service’s pilot in the Bay Area will use safety drivers seated in the driver’s seat. These drivers will be able to manually take over using the steering wheel and brakes as needed. As per a spokesperson from the California DMV, the agency recently met with Tesla but the company is yet to submit a formal application to operate fully driverless cars.
Tesla Robotaxi expansion
Interestingly enough, Tesla did tease the release of its Robotaxi service to the Bay Area in its second quarter earnings call. While discussing the service, Tesla VP of Autopilot/AI Software Ashok Elluswamy mentioned that the company will initially be rolling out Robotaxis with safety drivers in the San Francisco Bay Area. He did, however, also highlight that the electric vehicle maker is working hard to get government permission to release the service for consumers.
“The next thing to expand would be in the San Francisco Bay Area. We are working with the government to get approval here and, in the meanwhile, launch the service without the person in the driver seat just to expedite and while we wait for regulatory approval,” he stated.
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Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits
Tesla executives have mentioned that these more affordable models would resemble the company’s current lineup.
The United States’ electric vehicle tax credit is coming to an end at the end of the third quarter. Tesla, the country’s leading electric vehicle maker, is ready to meet this challenge with a rather simple but clever counter.
Tesla executives outlined this strategy in the recently held Q2 2025 earnings call.
End of the US EV tax credit
While Elon Musk has always maintained that he prefers a market with no EV tax credit, he also emphasized that he supports the rollback of any incentives given to the oil and gas industry. The Trump administration has not done this so far, instead focusing on the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of the third quarter.
Tesla has been going all-in on encouraging customers to purchase their vehicles in Q3 to take advantage of lower prices. The company has also implemented a series of incentives across all its offerings, from the Cybertruck to the Model 3. This, however, is not all, as the company seems to be preparing a longer-term solution to the expiration of the EV tax credit.
Affordable variants
During the Q2 2025 earnings call, Vice President of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moray stated that Tesla really did start the production of more affordable models in June. Quality builds of these vehicles are being ramped this quarter, with the goal of optimizing production over the remaining months of the year. If Tesla is successful, these models will be available for everyone in Q4.
“We started production in June, and we’re ramping quality builds and things around the quarter. And given that we started in North America and our goal is to maximize production with a higher rate. So starting Q3, we’re going to keep pushing hard on our current models to avoid complexity… We’ll be ready with new, more affordable models available for everyone in Q4.,” Moravy stated.
These comments suggest that Tesla should be able to offer vehicles that are competitively priced even after the EV tax credit has been phased out. Interestingly enough, previous comments from Tesla executives have mentioned that these more affordable models would resemble the company’s current lineup. This suggests that the more affordable models may indeed be variations of the Model Y and Model 3, but offered at a lower price.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s next Robotaxi expansion in more ways than one
Tesla Robotaxi is growing in more ways than one. Tesla wants to expand and hopes to reach half the U.S. population by the end of the year.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed the company’s plans for its next expansion of the Robotaxi in terms of both the geofence in Austin and the platform overall, as it looks to move to new areas outside of Texas.
Tesla launched the Robotaxi platform last month on June 22, and has since expanded both the pool of users and the area that the driverless Model Y vehicles can travel within.
The first expansion of the geofence caught the attention of nearly everyone and became a huge headline as Tesla picked a very interesting shape for the new geofence, resembling male reproductive parts.
🚨 Elon Musk says Tesla’s Robotaxi geofence in Austin will get “even bigger and longer” in “a couple weeks or so” pic.twitter.com/0gLeKfURMi
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 23, 2025
The next expansion will likely absolve this shape. Musk revealed last night that the new geofence will be “well in excess of what competitors are doing,” and it could happen “hopefully in a week or two.”
Musk’s full quote regarding the expansion of the geofence and the timing was:
“As some may have noted, we have already expanded our service area in Austin. It’s bigger and longer, and it’s going to get even bigger and longer. We are expecting to greatly increase the service area to well in excess of what competitors are doing, hopefully in a week or two.”
The expansion will not stop there, either. As Tesla has operated the Robotaxi platform in Austin for the past month, it has been working with regulators in other areas, like California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, to get the driverless ride-hailing system activated in more U.S. states.
Tesla confirmed that they are in talks with each of these states regarding the potential expansion of Robotaxi.
Musk added:
“As we get the approvals and prove out safety, we will be launching the autonomous ride-hailing across most of the country. I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year.”
We know that Tesla and Musk have been prone to aggressive and sometimes outlandish timelines regarding self-driving technology specifically. Regulatory approvals could happen by the end of the year in several areas, and working on these large metros is the best way to reach half of the U.S. population.
Tesla said its expansion of the geofence in Austin is conservative and controlled due to its obsession with safety, even admitting at one point during the Earnings Call that they are being “paranoid.” Expanding the geofence is necessary, but Tesla realizes any significant mistake by Robotaxi could take it back to square one.
Tesla rolling out Robotaxi pilot in SF Bay Area this weekend: report
Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits
Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s next Robotaxi expansion in more ways than one
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