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SpaceX nears big US govt. missions as ULA handwaves about risks of competition

Falcon 9 B1045 rolls out to Pad 40 ahead of its first launch in April 2018. (NASA/SpaceX)

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Speaking at the 2018 Von Braun Symposium in Huntsville, Alabama, ULA COO John Elbon expressed worries that the US National Security Space (NSS) apparatus could be put at significant risk if it comes to rely too heavily on the commercial launch industry to assure access to space.

Given that the US military’s launch capabilities rest solely on SpaceX and ULA and will remain that way for at least three more years, Elbon’s comment was effectively an odd barb tossed in the direction of SpaceX and – to a lesser extent – Blue Origin, two disruptive and commercially-oriented launch providers.

Reading between the lines

For the most part, Elbon’s brief presentation centered around a reasonable discussion of ULA’s track record and future vehicle development, emphasizing the respectable reliability of its current Atlas V and Delta IV rockets and the ‘heritage’ they share with ULA’s next-generation Vulcan vehicle. However, the COO twice brought up an intriguing concern that the US military launch apparatus could suffer if it ends up relying too heavily on ‘commercially-sustained’ launch vehicles like Falcon 9/Heavy or New Glenn.

To provide historical context and evidence favorable to his position, Elbon brought up a now-obscure event in the history of the launch industry, where – 20 years ago – companies Lockheed Martin and Boeing reportedly “set out to develop … Atlas V and Delta IV” primarily to support the launch of several large satellite constellations. The reality and causes of the US launch industry’s instability in the late ’90s and early ’00s is almost indistinguishable from this narrative, however.

Despite the many veils of aerospace and military secrecy surrounding the events that occurred afterward, the facts show that – in 1999 – Boeing (per acquisition of McDonnell Douglas) and Lockheed Martin (LM) both received awards of $500M to develop the Delta IV and Atlas V rockets, and the military further committed to buying a full 28 launches for $2B between 2002 and 2006. Combined, the US military effectively placed $3B ($4.5B in 2018 dollars) on the table for its Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program with the goal of ensuring uninterrupted access to space for national security purposes.

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Rocketing into corporate espionage

“The robust commercial market forecast led the Air Force to reconsider its acquisition strategy.  The EELV acquisition strategy changed from a planned down-select to a single contractor and a standard Air Force development program [where the USAF funds vehicle development in its entirety] to a dual commercialized approach that leveraged commercial market share and contractor investment.” – USAF EELV Fact Sheet, March 2017

The above quote demonstrates that there is at least an inkling of truth in Elbon’s spin. However, perhaps the single biggest reason that the EELV program and its two awardees stumbled was gross, inexcusable conduct on the part of Boeing. In essence, the company’s space executives conspired to use corporate espionage to gain an upper-hand over Lockheed Martin, knowledge which ultimately allowed Boeing to severely low-ball the prices of its Delta IV rocket, securing 19 of 28 available USAF launch contracts.

Ultimately, Lockheed Martin caught wind of Boeing’s suspect behavior and filed a lawsuit that began several years of USAF investigations and highly unpleasant revelations, while Boeing also had at least 10 future launch contracts withdrawn to the tune of ~$1B (1999). USAF investigations discovered that Boeing had lied extensively to the Air Force for more than four years – the actual volume of information stolen would balloon wildly from Boeing’s initial reports of “seven pages of harmless data” to 10+ boxes containing more than 42,000 pages of extremely detailed technical and proprietary information about Lockheed Martin’s Atlas V rocket proposal.

“If you rewind the clock 20 years, there were folks on a panel like this having dialogue about commercial launch, and there were envisioned several constellations that were going to require significant commercial launch. Lockheed Martin and Boeing set out to develop launch vehicles that were focused on that very robust commercial market – in the case of McDonald Douglas at the time, which later became Boeing, the factory in Decatur was…sized to crank out 40 [rocket boosters] a year, a couple of ships were bought to transport those…significant infrastructure put in place to address that envisioned launch market.” – John Elbon, COO, United Launch Alliance (ULA)

 

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In reality, Boeing was so desperate to secure USAF launches – despite the fact that it knew full well that Delta IV was too expensive to be sustainably competitive – that dozens of employees were eventually roped into a systematic, years-long, highly-illegal program of corporate espionage specifically designed to beat out government launch competitor Lockheed Martin. Humorously, Delta IV was not even Boeing’s design – rather, Boeing acquired designer McDonnell Douglas in late 1996, five days before the USAF announced the decision to reject Boeing and another company’s EELV proposals, narrowing down to two finalists (McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed Martin).

Seven years after the original lawsuit snowballed, Boeing settled with Lockheed Martin for a payment of more than $600M in 2006, accepting responsibility for its employees’ actions but admitting no corporate wrongdoing. Five years after that settlement, John Elbon became Vice President of Boeing’s Space Exploration division. This is by no means to suggest that Elbon is in any way complicit, having spent much of his 30+ years at Boeing managing the company’s involvement in the International Space Station, but more serves as an example of how recent these events are and why their consequences almost certainly continue to reverberate loudly within the US space industry.

SpaceX forces change

Worsened significantly by the consequences of Boeing’s lies about the actual operational costs of its Delta IV rocket (it had planned to secretly write off a loss on each rocket in order to steal USAF market share from LockMart), the commercial market for the extremely expensive rocket was and still is functionally nonexistent. 35 out of the family’s 36 launches have been contracted by the US military (30), NOAA (3), or NASA (2); the rocket’s first launch, likely sold at a major discount to Eutelsat, remains its one and only commercial mission.

ULA’s Delta Heavy seen during the August 2018 launch of NASA’s Parker Solar Probe. (Tom Cross)

Atlas V, typically priced around 30% less than comparable Delta IV variants, has had a far more productive career, albeit with very few commercial launches since the Dec. 2006 formation of the United Launch Alliance. Since 2007, just 5 of Atlas V’s 70 launches have been for commercial customers. Frankly, although Atlas V was appreciably more affordable than Delta IV, neither rocket was ever able to sustainably compete with Europe’s Ariane 5 workhorse – Ariane 5 cost more per launch, but superior payload performance often let Arianespace manifest two large satellites on a single launch, approximately halving the cost for each customer. Russia’s affordable (but only moderately reliable) Proton rockets also played an important role in the commercial launch industry prior to SpaceX’s arrival.

After fighting tooth and nail for years to break ULA’s US governmental launch monopoly, SpaceX’s first dedicated National Security Space launch finally occurred less than a year and a half ago, in May 2017. SpaceX has since placed a USAF spaceplane and a classified NSS-related satellite into orbit and been awarded launch contracts for critical USAF payloads, most notably winning five of five competed GPS III satellite launches, to begin as early as mid-December. Falcon 9 will cost the USAF roughly 30% less than a comparable Atlas 5 contract, $97M to ULA’s ~$135M.

 

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A bit more than two decades after Boeing bought McDonnell Douglas and began a calculated effort to steal trade secrets from Lockheed Martin, Elbon – now COO of the Boeing/Lockheed Martin-cooperative ULA – seems to fervently believe that the most critical mistake made in the late 1990s and early 2000s was the USAF’s decision to partially support the development of two separate rockets. Elbon concluded his remarks on the topic with one impressively unambiguous summary of ULA’s position:

“We have to make sure that we don’t get too much supply and not enough demand so that the [launch] providers can’t survive in a robust business environment, and then we lose the capability as a country to do the launches we need to do … [That’s] the perspective we have at ULA and it’s based on the experience that we’ve been through in the past.”

In his sole Delta IV vs. Atlas V case-study, what ULA now seems to think might have been “too much supply” under the USAF’s EELV program appears to literally be the fundamental minimum conditions needed for competition to exist at all – two companies offering two competing products. Short of directly stating as much, it’s difficult to imagine a more concise method of revealing the apparent belief that competition – at all – is intrinsically undesirable or risky.

A recording of the Von Braun Symposium’s Commercial Space panel can be viewed here at timestamp 01:11:40.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Why Tesla’s Q4 performance could shock many after incredible Q3

There is still some residual impact to be felt as we enter Q4, and there is a potential shock coming to many investors as it could be stronger than what many think:

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla reported vehicle deliveries and energy deployments for the third quarter of 2025 today, blowing analyst estimations from Wall Street firms completely out of the water with its strongest three-month performance in company history.

The strong performance, which resulted in nearly half a million vehicle deliveries in the quarter, was largely driven by the momentum of the EV tax credit, which expired at the end of September, marking the end of the $7,500 discount that was previously available.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

This was a massive contributor to Tesla’s record-high in vehicle deliveries, as consumers rushed to take advantage of the credit.

There is still some residual impact to be felt as we enter Q4, and there is a potential shock coming to many investors as it could be stronger than what many think:

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EV Tax Credit Deliveries Will Continue Through Q4

Despite the credit’s expiration, people will still be able to take advantage of it because the IRS changed the rules mid-quarter.

Prospective buyers can utilize the credit after September 30 if they place an order for an EV and make a marginal payment on the car.

Tesla’s $250 order deposit qualified as the marginal payment, so as long as the order was submitted before the end of the day on September 30, they could still take delivery in Q4 or even Q1 and still take advantage of the credit.

Tesla set to win big after IRS adjusts EV tax credit rules

With the Model Y Performance launching in the U.S. on September 30, that undoubtedly contributed to some orders. However, there are likely many people who ordered in the latter portion of Q3 and have not yet taken delivery. These will all contribute to Q4 delivery figures.

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Seasonal Holiday Boost

Tesla traditionally has its strongest quarters in Q4, as the company typically introduces initiatives such as price cuts, incentives, and other offers to close out the year strong.

Car buyers are more likely to jump at these offers as well, as gifts for either themselves or others. What Tesla does in the final quarter of the year is usually boosted by whatever types of offers it can make.

Affordable Model Production Ramp

Tesla is likely preparing for the launch of its affordable model, which is essentially a stripped-down Model Y.

Some rumors have been circulating within the community, indicating that the company is nearing the sale of this vehicle, which is coded within Tesla’s website as the “Model Y Standard.”

If Tesla is able to lock in some good pricing on its affordable model, Tesla could see its quarterly figures return to QoQ growth, something that the company has not had in a few years.

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Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

As per Tesla’s Q3 2025 vehicle delivery and production report, the bulk of the company’s numbers came from its mass-market lineup.

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported record-breaking results for the third quarter of 2025, producing 447,450 vehicles and delivering 497,099 units worldwide. 

The company also deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products, setting a new record in its fast-growing energy business.

Model 3/Y domination

As per Tesla’s Q3 2025 vehicle delivery and production report, the bulk of the company’s numbers came from its mass-market lineup. The Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover accounted for 435,826 units produced and 481,166 delivered in the quarter. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model 3 and Model Y are still premium-priced vehicles with numerous competitors that are significantly more affordable.

Other models, including the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck, contributed 11,624 vehicles produced and 15,933 delivered. Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s energy business posted its best quarter to date, deploying 12.5 GWh of storage systems.

Credit: Tesla

Q3 2025 earnings call date

Tesla’s third-quarter results are extremely impressive, and they exceed Wall Street’s estimates by a significant margin. As per Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg, who had a delivery estimate of 442,000 vehicles in Q3, Wall Street consensus was at 448,000 units. Even more optimistic analysts estimated that Tesla would only post deliveries in the mid-460,000s.

Investors will gain further insight later this month when Tesla reports full financials for the quarter. The company will release Q3 2025 earnings after market close on October 22, followed by a Q&A webcast at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk is halfway towards becoming the world’s first trillionaire

Musk’s fortune remains heavily tied to Tesla, which has rallied nearly 100% since April.

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing/X

Elon Musk has reached a new milestone by becoming the first individual in history to achieve a net worth of $500 billion. ForbesReal-Time Billionaires tracker confirmed the record Wednesday afternoon after Tesla stock gained nearly 4%, adding an estimated $9.3 billion to Musk’s net worth in a single day. 

He now sits more than $150 billion ahead of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, whose net worth also stands at a very impressive $350 billion.

Tesla stock leads wealth surge

Musk’s fortune remains heavily tied to Tesla, which has rallied nearly 100% since April, when the CEO announced he would step back from outside roles to focus more on the EV maker. The company’s market capitalization is back within 10% of its all-time peak, lifting the value of Musk’s 12% stake to about $191 billion. 

Beyond this, his 2018 compensation package, which was rescinded by a Delaware judge last year but is still under appeal, could unlock additional stock worth more than $130 billion if reinstated, Forbes noted. Investors see Musk’s refocused leadership as a stabilizing force for Tesla as it pursues ambitious global growth. Tesla has also proposed a new compensation plan for Musk that could bring the company’s market cap to $8.5 trillion and add an additional $900 billion to the CEO’s net worth. 

SpaceX and xAI boost portfolio value

While Tesla drives much of his wealth, Musk’s stakes in SpaceX and xAI have added significant upside to his net worth. SpaceX, his private rocket company, recently hit a $400 billion valuation in a private tender offer, valuing Musk’s 42% stake at $168 billion. Meanwhile, xAI Holdings, which merged with social platform X earlier this year, is worth an estimated $113 billion, giving Musk another $60 billion on paper. 

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These ventures, combined with Tesla’s resurgence, have pushed Musk’s net worth past the half-trillion-dollar mark and highlighted his reach across multiple industries, from clean energy to space, artificial intelligence, brain implants, and tunneling.

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