News
SpaceX adds new ship to fleet after fairing catcher Ms. Tree nails second recovery in a row
In a telltale sign that SpaceX is growing much more confident in its ability to consistently recover Falcon 9 fairings, the company has accepted delivery of second recovery ship almost identical to GO Ms. Tree (formerly Mr. Steven) just days after nailing its second fairing catch in a row.
Previously known as M/V Captain Elliott, the new ship appears to have been acquired (or leased) by Guice Offshore (GO) from SEACOR Marine, who purchased Elliott from struggling marine services company Seatran Marine in 2017. One way or another, SpaceX now has a pair of Port Canaveral-based fairing recovery ships in hand – named Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief – and is thus making excellent progress towards catching and reusing both halves of the same Falcon 9 (or Heavy) fairing.
Splurging on ‘ships
Put simply, whoever is paying for or has paid for the two fast supply vessels (FSVs) that are now a part of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet has/had a tidy sum to spend. For ships as large, new, and high-performance as Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief, both completed in the mid-2010s, SpaceX or GO would be lucky to pay less than $10M apiece and each ship could easily cost more than $20M, depending on a variety of unknowns. Previous owner Seatran Marine is/was admittedly in dire financial straits, so that could have resulted in an effective fire-sale discount.
Regardless, this is to say that SpaceX was likely willing to splurge and open its wallet wide for extremely high-quality fairing recovery vessels because of just how expensive those fairings are. According to CEO Elon Musk circa 2017, it costs SpaceX $5-6M total to produce a set of Falcon fairing halves, equivalent to roughly 10% of the cost of a Falcon 9 launch ($50M-60M).
As an example, assume that SpaceX paid a full $50M for Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief – effectively a worst-case cost scenario. Assume that recovering and reusing net-caught Falcon fairings still costs half as much as building new fairings ($3M for two halves), also likely a worst-case scenario given the relative mechanical and propulsive simplicity of fairings.
In this mediocre-at-best scenario, it would still take SpaceX less than 20 launches with both halves recovered to completely recoup the cost of both fairing recovery ships. In the event that reusing caught fairings is only 25% as expensive as building new fairings, SpaceX could recoup its fleet investments in just 10 launches. In fact, cost reduction may even be a secondary consideration next to the potential for effectively doubling fairing production with the same facilities. From that perspective, spending, say, $50M on development and another $50M on cutting-edge recovery vessels could easily be a bargain, especially compared to the $1B+ SpaceX has spent deloping Falcon 9 booster reusability.
Fairing-catcher Mk4
With GO Ms. Chief’s August 10th arrival at Port Canaveral, SpaceX’s team of Florida-based recovery engineers and technicians will now be tasked with modifying the ship for Falcon fairing catching. SpaceX completed its first fairing recovery-focused modifications back in late 2017, likely producing what was the first version of fairing recovery tech (Mk1). The net proved to be far too small and was replaced in summer 2018 with a net and arms likely 4X larger (Mk2).
Roughly half a year and several missed catches after Mr. Steven’s Mk2 net was installed, the ship transited the Panama Canal and arrived at Port Canaveral in February 2019. Barely a week or two later, Mr. Steven suffered a failure at sea – well before a planned catch attempt – that saw the ship limp back to port missing the entirety of its net and two of four arms.
After another four months in port, SpaceX installed a third net and arms system on Mr. Steven, featuring distinct differences and apparent upgrades that likely make it Mk3. Shortly after installation and a quick renaming from Mr. Steven to GO Ms. Tree, Ms. Tree’s inaugural Mk3 recovery attempt culminated in SpaceX’s first and second successful fairing catches – back-to-back – on June 24th and August 6th.
Finally, this brings us to the blank slate that is GO Ms. Chief. Compared to Ms. Tree, both vessels are nearly identical: both are built by Gulf Craft, LLC, both are 205 ft x 34 ft (62m x 10m), both have decks rated for ~405 metric tons (900,000 lb), and have top speeds of 26-32 knots (30-37 mph, 50-60 km/h; fully-loaded vs. empty). The lone point of difference is power: Ms. Chief’s engines produce 500 more horsepower and its generators produce an additional 120 kW of power, respective improvements of 5% and 16% relative to Ms. Tree (Mr. Steven).
Despite both ships being nearly identical, SpaceX is unlikely to simply copy and paste Ms. Tree’s thus far successful arms and net, likely instead doing what the company is famous for and fabricating a new and improved variant of the fairing recovery mechanism. This would presumably translate to Mk4. Conveniently, SpaceX appears to be heading into a rare period of no launches, likely stretching almost three months from August 6th (AMOS-17) to late October.
If Mr. Steven and Ms. Tree’s transformations are anything to go by, that hefty chunk of time that should be more than sufficient to fully outfit Ms. Chief with a fresh fairing recovery mechanism, assuming SpaceX has been simultaneously fabricating the hardware in anticipation of Ms. Chief’s arrival.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see if SpaceX’s next launches – both believed to be 60-satellite Starlink missions – will mark the recovery debut of Ms. Chief, as well as the first attempted catch of both Falcon fairing halves. Additionally, following SpaceX’s second successful fairing half catch on August 6th, it’s possible that the company has two recovered halves capable of making a full, flight-proven fairing. Either way, a Starlink launch will likely support the flight-debut of a reused fairing and will almost certainly host the first attempted simultaneous recovery of both fairing halves.
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Elon Musk
Tesla preps for a Cybercab takeover of the Robotaxi platform after pilot program
Tesla looks to be preparing the Cybercab for Robotaxi operation as castings pile up at Gigafactory Texas.
Tesla is evidently preparing for the Cybercab to take over the Robotaxi platform after the pilot program in Austin, Texas, is launched.
That claim is made based on new drone footage from Gigafactory Texas captured by Joe Tegtmeyer, who found hundreds of Cybercab castings that have accumulated on property in Austin.
🚨 The Drone GOAT @JoeTegtmeyer has captured images of “several hundred” Cybercab castings outside of Giga Texas
The Model Y will handle the initial Robotaxi pilot program in Austin, but it looks like Cybercab could be introduced later this year as well! https://t.co/PkPXjuR5Tc pic.twitter.com/iSohkSZcIZ
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 30, 2025
The Cybercab is Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi vehicle that was unveiled last October. It features just two seats and is minimalistic, aimed toward allowing the Full Self-Driving suite to chauffeur passengers from Point A to Point B without ever having to deal with human interaction or any responsibilities within the vehicle.
In June, Tesla plans to launch its first Robotaxi rides in Texas. Although employees in Austin and in the Bay Area of San Francisco have already had access to over 1,500 trips and 15,000 miles of autonomous (but supervised) travel, Tesla plans to launch a driverless version in a limited fashion in June.
However, this initial pilot program, while presumably operating on an Unsupervised version of the FSD, will only utilize Model Ys, at least at first.
The drone footage captured by Tegtmeyer today seems to tell a story of a quick transition to the Cybercab for the Robotaxi responsibilities, especially as Tesla gets its feet wet with the early Unsupervised FSD rides and gains confidence in the fleet’s ability to navigate passengers:
Many more @Tesla Cybercab Castings at Giga Texas today! Looks like around 75 or so in the racks waiting for production line testing (or more than that?) 😎 pic.twitter.com/0zUdH6BKLx
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) April 30, 2025
It appears that between 400 and 500 Cybercab castings can be seen in the images Joe captured, a very respectable number considering the company said it will not launch the Robotaxi with the initial rides it gives in Austin.
The images seem to paint a picture that Tesla is truly ready to get things moving in terms of the Cybercab project. While it does not plan to use the vehicle initially, its manufacturing efforts for the car are being prepared by stacking these castings so they’re ready to be expanded upon into the real thing.
On the most recent Earnings Call, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy, said the Cybercab’s engineering has progressed over the last several months to “derisk things like corrosion, the ceiling across the seams of the vehicle, and when you marry several components,” and even things like early crash testing have already taken place.
Moravy continued, “As with all that combined, we kind of go into the builds that we have in this quarter for the Cybercab product, and that’s the next real big test of full-scale integration with the unboxed process. And that’s kind of where we are. So you’ll see them on the test roads in a couple of months.”
Lifestyle
Tesla Semi futuristic sci-fi acceleration sound will never get old
Videos that capture the Semi moving at speed are most notable due to their sheer cool factor.
The Tesla Semi is not yet in mass production, but the company has accumulated over 7.9 million miles across its test fleet. With Tesla using the Semi for its operations, it is no surprise that sightings of the Class 8 all-electric truck have been abounding.
These sightings from Tesla enthusiasts vary, but those that capture the the Class 8 all-electric truck moving at speed are most notable, possibly due to their sheer cool factor.
Tesla Semi’s Roar
There is something that just stands out with the Semi, particularly on the road. While the Semi does not have the Cybertruck’s brutalist, angular design, it is still very striking because it’s such a massive machine that moves far too quietly for its size. This is, of course, one of the reasons why the vehicle also becomes extra noteworthy when it fires up its electric motors and accelerates.
Take this video from Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, for example, which shows the all-electric hauler accelerating while pulling what appears to be a full load. In these situations, the Tesla Semi actually becomes audible, but unlike traditional diesel-powered truck, the Class 8 all-electric truck “roars” with its own, unique futuristic, sci-fi sound. In such situations, one could feel the Semi’s raw power, which comes from its three independent motors on its rear axles.
Tesla Semi Ramp
Tesla has been promoting the Semi quite a bit as of late, and recent reports have suggested that the company is putting in a lot of effort to prepare the vehicle for its production in Nevada. Tesla’s Careers website has gone live with over 80 Semi-related job openings recently as well, and a recent report has suggested that Tesla has ramped the Semi’s factory workers in Nevada to over 1,000 employees.
The company has even shared an update video of the Semi factory’s progress near Giga Nevada, as well as the design of the vehicle’s new logo. The Semi’s updated logo is quite interesting as it features elements from the Tesla Model 3’s first logo, which was unveiled way back in 2016.
News
Robots like Tesla Optimus are a $5 trillion opportunity: analyst
This massive opportunity could be tapped by Tesla, thanks to its Optimus humanoid robot.
Morgan Stanley analysts have estimated that the humanoid robot market could offer a $5 trillion opportunity by the middle of the century. This massive opportunity could be tapped by Tesla, thanks to its Optimus humanoid robot.
The analysts, however, noted that the humanoid robots will likely be mostly used in industrial and commercial deployments.
The Estimates
Estimates from Morgan Stanley analysts point to humanoid robots hitting $5 trillion in global revenue by 2050. This, the analysts noted, would be about double the total revenue of the 20 largest automakers in 2024. In 2050, Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that there might be about 1 billion humanoid robots deployed.
As noted in a report from Investing.com, the shift to humanoid robots would be gradual. By 2035, the analysts estimated that just about 13 million humanoid robots will be in use, most of which will be used in industrial and commercial settings. Even in 2050, when the analysts estimated that 1 billion humanoid robots will be in use, an estimated 90% might still be used in industrial and commercial settings.
The advent of humanoid robots will likely be felt in the labor sector, Morgan Stanley analysts noted. By 2030, the analysts noted that humanoid robots could replace about 40,000 jobs. Just ten years later, in 2040, the number of jobs that robots could take over could balloon to 8.4 million. By 2050, the analysts noted that 62.7 million humans may end up watching humanoid robots do their jobs.
Tesla Potential
Morgan Stanley noted that companies like Tesla, which control the “brains, bodies, branding and ecosystems” of the humanoid robots, would be able to offer the highest value. This is good news for Tesla’s Optimus program, as it is a product that is designed to be produced at an extreme scale. During the Q1 2025 All Hands meeting, Elon Musk reiterated the idea that Optimus could very well become the biggest product of all time.
Most importantly, Musk also stated that Tesla is internally aiming to acquire enough resources to produce 10,000 to 12,000 Optimus robots this year. But even if Tesla just manages half of this number, or about 5,000 Optimus robots this year, it would already be impressive.
“Even 5,000 robots, that’s the size of a Roman legion, FYI, which is like a little scary thought. Like a whole legion of robots, I’ll be like ‘whoa.’ But I think we will literally build a legion, at least one legion of robots this year, and then probably 10 legions next year. I think it’s kind of a cool unit, you know? Units of legion. So probably 50,000-ish next year,” Musk stated.
Tesla preps for a Cybercab takeover of the Robotaxi platform after pilot program
Tesla Semi futuristic sci-fi acceleration sound will never get old
Robots like Tesla Optimus are a $5 trillion opportunity: analyst
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