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SpaceX, NASA moving forward with plans to build second Dragon launch pad
SpaceX and NASA officials have confirmed that they are moving forward with plans to modify the company’s second Florida launch pad to support Crew and Cargo Dragon missions.
First reported by Reuters in June 2022, SpaceX began studying the possibility of modifying its Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad for Dragon missions earlier this year after NASA raised concerns about the risks posed by plans to operate its next-generation Starship rocket out of the only pad available for Dragon. Three months later, the partners have committed to that plan and, according to SpaceX, hardware for the required modifications is already in work.
After a false-start in 2019 and 2020, SpaceX began rapidly constructing Starship’s first Florida launch site at the LC-39A pad it leases from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) earlier this year. Thanks to a series of modifications and additions to existing Space Shuttle infrastructure, Pad 39A is also the only site currently capable of launching Crew and Cargo Dragon spacecraft on Falcon 9 rockets. Located just 1000 feet (~300 m) east of 39A’s existing Falcon and Dragon launch facilities and access tower, Starship is unlikely to have much of an impact during nominal operations, but the program does have a history of building prototypes that occasionally explode.
Until late 2023 at the absolute earliest, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon is the only spacecraft capable of sustaining NASA’s presence (typically 4-5 astronauts) at the International Space Station (ISS). Years behind schedule, Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule is scheduled to attempt its first crewed test flight (CTF) no sooner than February 2023. Starliner’s first operational astronaut transport mission could then follow in September 2023, but it could easily slip into 2024 if the CTF is less than flawless. To date, both of Starliner’s uncrewed test flights have uncovered significant issues that required months of additional work to rectify.
When a Falcon 9 rocket exploded at LC-40 in 2016, causing damage that effectively required a total rebuild, it took SpaceX 15 months to resurrect the pad. In other words, if a Starship launch failed and destroyed Pad 39A’s Falcon and Dragon facilities at some point within the next 12-18 months, it could easily threaten NASA’s ability to maintain the ISS if Boeing was unable to take over.
Even though SpaceX would never risk launching Starship out of Pad 39A if it knew there was a high risk of the new rocket failing and harming Dragon operations, NASA is in the business of ensuring that contingencies exist in case of unlikely but catastrophic events. It doesn’t matter if Starship probably won’t explode or if Starliner will probably be ready to take over. The risk is always there and SpaceX and NASA must be ready for the possibility.
Nothing is known about the nature of the modifications that LC-40 will require. But more likely than not, NASA will require SpaceX to develop something similar to Pad 39A’s facilities. That would involve building a new crew access tower, crew access arm, escape system (39A uses baskets and ziplines), and an on-site bunker for astronauts.
Given that the need for a backup Dragon launch pad comes largely at NASA’s behest, there’s a good chance that the agency will require that that backup be in place before SpaceX will be allowed to launch Starship out of Pad 39A. Earlier this month, CEO Elon Musk delayed his estimate for the first Florida Starship launch from late 2022 to Q2 2023. It’s highly unlikely that SpaceX will be able to finish modifying LC-40 by Q2 2023.
SpaceX will have to undertake the already challenging, time-sensitive construction project on a high-security military base and well within the blast radius of the single most active launch pad in the world. Much of the custom hardware required could have significant lead times, further extending the construction timeline. Unless SpaceX is willing to seriously constrain LC-40’s launch cadence, which would likely make its goals of 60+ launches in 2022 and up to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 impossible, the work will take even longer than it would under ordinary circumstances.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
