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SpaceX, NASA already planning its next astronaut mission following historic launch
SpaceX’s first launch of Crew Dragon with astronauts on board may have to wait a few more days to get off the ground, but that doesn’t mean that the company isn’t already looking forward to the future. Following Demo-2, and if all goes as planned, NASA is expected to certify the Crew Dragon spacecraft for regular flights to and from the space station.
At that time, SpaceX and NASA will start nailing down the details for its next crewed mission. Each Dragon spacecraft is certified to stay on orbit for no more than 120 days, so they have to time everything carefully. That’s why the length of Demo-2 is uncertain — it all depends on when the next spacecraft will be ready.
That could happen sooner rather than later. NASA administrator, Jim Bridenstine, explained during a pre-launch briefing that the next flight of the Crew Dragon could fly as soon as August 30. That flight, called Crew-1, would see the Dragon carry four astronauts to the space station for a six-month stay. On board will be three NASA astronauts — Mike Hopkins, Victor Glover, and Shannon Walker — who will be joined by Japanese astronaut Soichi Noguchi.
However, before they can fly, the Demo-2 crew of Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken are putting the Dragon through its paces. It’s their job to test out the craft’s various systems on this final test flight. Crew Dragon has already made one successful flight to the space station, but that was without a crew on board. When it flies this next time, Bob and Doug will not only test out manual controls of the Dragon’s flight systems, but also the craft’s ECLISS (or environmental control and life support system).
Bridenstine stresses that Demo-2 is a test flight. The mission is designed to test the vehicle, land it safely, and prepare to regularly launch crew. To that end, there will be several weeks in between the Demo-2 flight and the launch of Crew-1. This will allow SpaceX and NASA to inspect and certify the Dragon.
“They can be there probably until early August,” Bridenstine said, referring to the Demo-2 mission. “If we have a good window to come home and they are not necessary on the International Space Station, we will be taking it.”
“The goal is to get them to the International Space Station, test the systems and get them home,” he added. “If they can do more work than that while on the ISS, certainly that’s OK. But this is a test flight.”
Behnken and Hurley will be joining fellow NASA astronaut Chris Cassidy on station. Cassidy, along with two Russian cosmonauts, launched to the station in April. They’ve been serving as a skeleton crew, so the addition of two more astronauts will be welcomed.
SpaceX snagged a $2.6 billion contract in 2014, to fly six operational crewed missions for NASA. For nearly a decade now, NASA has been forced to rely on Russia as the sole means of transporting astronauts to and from the orbital outpost. This arrangement is expensive, with seats now costing NASA approximately $90 million each.
Once Crew Dragon is fully operational, NASA hopes to end its payments to Russia. It would lie to establish a barter system for seats instead. NASA is hopeful that the Russians will want to fly on the Dragon and are wanting to trade seats with the Russians in the near future.
That arrangement would see U.S. astronauts continue to fly on Soyuz spacecrafts as well as Russian cosmonauts fly on U.S. spacecraft with no money being exchanged. Russian officials have said they would be open to putting cosmonauts on U.S. vehicles after they’ve been fully certified.
Russia as well as many international partners participated in the Dragon’s readiness review process along with NASA. The Dragon passed both its flight readiness review and launch readiness reviews with flying colors. Right now, the only thing standing in its way is launch weather.
Currently, NASA and SpaceX are targeting Saturday, May 30 at 3:22 p.m. for liftoff.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
