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SpaceX readies for upcoming February launches

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Although no major announcements from SpaceX regarding its upcoming February 14th and February 28th missions have been released, small details about the company’s progress have been picked up through social media and press inquiries as SpaceX fans count down to the next launches.

Under Construction: Launch Pads

First up is the construction status of historic Launch Complex 39A, the pad that SpaceX has been renovating from its Apollo-era days. Upon completion, this pad will host the Falcon Heavy vehicle once development has completed along with all upcoming Falcon 9 Florida launches until other pads currently under construction become available. Some of the pad progress being made in preparation for launch has been tracked by fans and shared on social media.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BQHUvzjFLz8/

Next are the reconstruction plans for Launch Complex 40 to repair the damage caused from the September 1, 2016 launch pad fire. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell confirmed in a recent Reuters article that this pad will be repaired for Falcon 9 use rather than refitted for Falcon Heavy. Shotwell quoted a $100 million dollar price tag to make a complete switch, an amount not justified given the 50% less cost estimate to only repair the damaged pad.

Countdown to Launch: NASA

Other than rescheduling the mission ahead of the EchoStar 23 launch, SpaceX’s upcoming February 14, 2017 CRS-10 launch to the International Space Station (ISS) has not had any major updates (or rescheduling) published. The pre-launch static fire is tentatively scheduled for February 8th, and this will be the first SpaceX rocket to launch from pad 39A.

As an interesting note for fans, however, NASA included this launch in its NASA Social program wherein 50 social media communicators were selected to attend a two-day behind the scenes event. Per NASA’s web site, selected participants will have the opportunity to:

  • View the launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket
  • Tour NASA facilities at Kennedy Space Center
  • Speak with representatives from NASA
  • View and take photographs of the Falcon 9 rocket at SpaceX’s Launch Complex 39A
  • Meet fellow space enthusiasts who are active on social media
  • Meet members of NASA’s social media team

NASA opens events up to social media participants regularly, and past events have included other launches, the arrival of the Juno spacecraft at Jupiter, and behind the scenes opportunities during major discussion panels and announcements.

A Twitter search for tweets containing the @NASASocial handle will reveal several of the winners who chose to announce their acceptance into the February 14th SpaceX launch event. The hashtags #NASASocial and #Dragon will also be used.

Countdown to Launch: EchoStar 23

The February 28, 2017 launch of EchoStar 23 will attempt to set a spaceflight record by launching with the first recovered and refurbished rocket core. As previously reported, the recovered core being used will aim to make history twice, one being the first core landed on an autonomous droneship off the coast of Florida, and the other being the first recovered rocket core to be re-flown.

SpaceX’s facility in McGregor, Texas has been busy testing the first stage core for re-use in the EchoStar 23 mission. Residents near the location who are active on unofficial SpaceX social media outlets aren’t shy to tell all about the tests as they hear them. Some residents even provide regular reports of the activity, including the number and length of the fires, and further speculate what else the company is up to.

SpaceX took to social media itself regarding these tests and published a photo of one on its Instagram account.

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https://www.instagram.com/p/BP8zK2DFxhq/?taken-by=spacex

No News is Good News

As the dates move closer, the scheduling for the upcoming launches will likely adjust as many factors affecting them are still in the air. Weather is always a question, and the status of launch pad 39A is still unknown.

Despite the numerous, multi-front approach SpaceX is tackling to meet all of its launch and construction objectives, the company is still confident it will be able to meet its fast-paced launch schedule over the next year.

Accidental computer geek, fascinated by most history and the multiplanetary future on its way. Quite keen on the democratization of space. | It's pronounced day-sha, but I answer to almost any variation thereof.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect

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Credit: TechOperator | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.

Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:

  • Total Revenues: $28.34B
  • Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
  • Operating Margin: 2.5%
  • Operating Income: $721M
  • Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B

Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:

Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability

This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.

Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.

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Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress

The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.

Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.

Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for

Say Investor Questions

  1. How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
  2. When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
  3. When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
  4. What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
  5. Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?

The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.

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SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.

CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:

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This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”

Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.

The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.

The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.

As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.

Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX stock gets a slew of price target boosts after bullish earnings call

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Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.

SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.

Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.

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The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.

Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.

These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:

  • JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
  • Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
  • Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
  • UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
  • TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
  • Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
  • Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.

Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.

The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.

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