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SpaceX scrubs Starhopper’s final Raptor-powered flight as Elon Musk talks “finicky” igniters
For unknown reasons, SpaceX’s Starhopper prototype suffered a hold just 0.8 seconds prior to its second planned flight test, a hold that was eventually followed by a decision to scrub the August 26th attempt and try again tomorrow, August 27th.
Starhopper is a full-scale, partial-height testbed for SpaceX’s next-generation Starship launch vehicle, serving more as a semi-mobile test stand for steel rockets and Raptor engines than an actual Starship prototype. The unusual vehicle took flight for the first time ever on July 25th, reaching an altitude of roughly 20m (65 ft) under the power of a single Raptor engine, capable of producing up to 200 tons (450,000 lbf) of thrust. That test also suffered a minor scrub on the 24th, followed by a successful flight one day later, a chapter that Starhopper may now mirror on its second attempted flight, a 150m (500 ft) hop.
Notably, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter just seconds after the rocket’s scheduled liftoff suffered a last-second hold to indicate that Raptor’s torch igniters were proving somewhat finicky relative to the chemical alternative used by SpaceX’s proven Merlin engines.
The CEO later confirmed that that comment was directly related to the 26th’s scrub, indicating that Raptor serial number 06 (SN06) needed to have its igniters inspected prior to a second hop test attempt, now scheduled to occur no earlier than 6pm EDT (22:00 UTC) on August 27th. The gist of the difficulties with Raptor’s igniter starts with the reason that SpaceX is attempting to integrate an entirely new form of ignition into the engine, replacing the methods successfully used over tens or even hundreds of thousands of seconds of firing with the company’s Merlin 1 and Merlin Vacuum engines.
Merlin 1D and MVacD both rely on a relatively simple, reliable, cheap, and easy method of chemical ignition, using a duo of pyrophoric materials known as triethylaluminum-triethylborane (TEA-TEB). When mixed, these materials immediately combust, generating an iconic green flash visible during Falcon 9 and Heavy launches, and thus producing the ‘spark’ needed to start Merlin engines.
Generally speaking, TEA-TEB is an excellent method of igniting rockets, even if it is more of a brute-force, inelegant solution than alternatives. It does, however, bring limitations: every single ignition requires a new ‘cartridge’ be expended, fundamentally limiting the number of times Merlin 1D (and Merlin Vacuum) engines can be ignited before and after liftoff.
This doesn’t even consider the fact that TEA-TEB are extremely complex chemical products that would be next to impossible to produce off of Earth, at least for the indefinite future.
To combat these downsides, SpaceX has designed Raptor with an entirely different method of ignition, known as torch ignition. Technically speaking, Raptor’s power, design, and methalox propellant combine to demand more than a relatively common solution, in which spark plugs are used to ignite an engine. Instead, Raptor uses those spark plugs to ignite its ignition sources, what CEO Elon Musk has described as full-up blow torches. Once ignited, those blow torches – likely miniature rocket engines using the same methane and oxygen fuel as Raptor – then ignite the engine’s methane and oxygen preburners before finally igniting those mixed, high-pressure gases in the combustion chamber.
In simple terms, the fact that Raptor is a full-flow staged-combustion (FFSC) engine means that the pressures it must operate under are extreme, verging on unprecedented in large-scale rocketry. Extremely high-pressure gases (on the order of 3,000-10,000+ psi or 200-700+ bar) are just as difficult to reliably ignite, especially if hypergolic solutions (i.e. TEA-TEB) are off the table.
To get an even ignition – critical to avoid burn-through, minor explosions, and even catastrophic engine failures – Raptor’s torch ignition may actually involve a 360-degree ring of spark plug-lit torches around the point of ignition, an undeniably complex solution.
However, as Musk notes, these significant, “finicky” challenges brought on by Raptor’s exotic ignition method are motivated by the potential benefits such a solution might bring. Relative to Merlin 1D’s TEA-TEB ignition, torch ignition – once optimized and matured into a reliable solution – will permit an almost unlimited number of Raptor ignitions before, during, and after flight.
Avoiding TEA-TEB and other complex chemical igniters also means that Starship will technically be able to launch to Mars or the Moon, perform injection and landing burns, maybe even hop around the surface, and still be able to return to Earth – all without resupply. Such a return voyage would still be predicated on the ability to generate the methane and oxygen propellant needed to fuel Starships, but – assuming that challenge can be solved – torch-lit Raptors would be ready for such a mission. In the event that, say, something like August 26th’s scrub happens to a Starship on Mars, the crew would also be able to get out, inspect Starship’s Raptors, and even replace faulty spark plugs if necessary.
Technically, one could bring lots of spare TEA-TEB cartridges and install those in space or after landing, but those cartridges are quite literally firebombs waiting to ignite, whereas spare spark plugs are entirely inert.
For now, we’ll have to wait for SpaceX technicians to get their eyes and hands-on Starhopper’s lone Raptor engine to verify that its ignition hardware is in good health. If all goes well, Starhopper will attempt its final flight test as early as August 27th.
Update (August 27th): Starhopper is reportedly set for a second attempted 150m (500 ft) flight test today, scheduled to occur no earlier than 5pm EDT (21:00 UTC) on August 27th. Stay tuned for SpaceX’s official Livestream!
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Tesla and SpaceX formed special committees to weigh a merger, and Elon Musk supports it.
Elon Musk confirmed Tuesday that Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees of independent directors to study a possible merger, the first formal step toward combining the two companies after months of speculation.
Musk made the disclosure during SpaceX’s third quarter earnings call. “Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea at the request of shareholders,” he said. “Because I’m a conflicted party, I can’t actually be in the discussions of the special committees.” He described the setup as “an odd kabuki dance where two groups of people are talking and I can’t be in the conversation.”
Musk did not hide where he stands. “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes,” he said, pointing to shared work on super intelligence software, chip design, the Terafab facility in Austin, robotics, mass to orbit and connectivity. “I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the super intelligence singularity.”
He also tried to cool expectations. The committees have not agreed on terms for any transaction, and Musk said assuming a merger is a certainty “would be overstating it.” Any deal would go to shareholders, and on the Tesla side it would need approval from 50 percent of all outstanding shares, not just the shares that are voted. Musk called that “quite a high hurdle.”
That bar has tripped Tesla up before. The company’s 2025 attempt to declassify its board won support from only 39.4 percent of outstanding shares and failed. Musk’s own voting stake sits near 20 percent after he exercised his 2018 options in June, so a deal would need broad backing from institutions and a retail base that often leaves votes uncast.
Timing is another open question. Tesla filed its proxy statement Monday for its December 3 annual meeting, and the ballot has only three items: director elections for Musk, Robyn Denholm and JB Straubel, a say on pay vote and auditor ratification. Barclays analyst Dan Levy had argued that an announcement would need to land by late October or early November to make the annual meeting, as Teslarati noted in its SpaceX earnings preview. With no terms agreed, any vote would likely require its own special meeting.
Elon Musk gives his most telling Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation yet
Musk has been edging toward this for weeks. At the All-In Summit in September, he asked “who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration,” Teslarati reported. Last week’s Roadster unveil, built around SpaceX derived cold gas thrusters, pushed the talk further. The two companies already share the Terafab chip project, and Tesla holds a small SpaceX stake that came from its earlier investment in xAI.
SpaceX brought strong numbers to the conversation. It reported Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161 percent year over year, with its Super Intelligence segment now its largest at $7.56 billion. A higher SpaceX valuation would shape any exchange ratio Tesla holders are offered.
Tesla reports its own third quarter results after the close on Wednesday, October 21. Investors had already ranked merger timing among the top retail questions for SpaceX’s call, and the committees will almost certainly come up again on Tesla’s.
SpaceX reported its third-quarter 2026 financial results on October 20, posting the company’s first solidly profitable quarter since going public earlier in the year under the ticker $SPCX.
Revenue reached $14.58 billion, up 161 percent year-over-year from $5.6 billion, and well ahead of consensus estimates in the $12.7 to $12.9 billion range. The results highlight a rapid shift in SpaceX’s center of gravity toward artificial intelligence/super intelligence, while Starlink and traditional space operations continue to show robust progress.
Here are the key financial results for the quarter:
- Revenue of $14.58 billion (+161% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion (+306% YoY)
- GAAP net income of $4.4 billion (versus a $1.1 billion net loss in the prior-year quarter)
- Adjusted EPS of approximately $0.35 (versus roughly $0.13–0.16 expected)
- Income from operations of $2.8 billion
The AI/SI segment generated $7.56 billion in revenue, an 830 percent year-over-year increase, making it the company’s largest segment for the first time. Growth was primarily driven by the activation of major cloud services agreements, the integration of Cursor (acquired earlier in 2026), and rising usage of Grok models and the newly introduced Grok Bot personal agent.
🚨 SpaceX just reported earnings! Here are some highlights:
Financial:
Revenue $14.58B (+161% YoY) vs. consensus ~$12.7–12.9B
Adjusted EBITDA $8.8B (+306% YoY)
GAAP net income $4.4B (vs. prior-year loss; first solidly profitable quarter post-IPO)
Adjusted EPS ~$0.35 vs. ~$0.13–0.16 expectedSegments:
Super Intelligence (SI, formerly AI): $7.56B (+830% YoY) — now the largest segment, driven by cloud contracts, Cursor, and Grok.
Connectivity (Starlink): $5.25B (+69% YoY).
Space: $1.77B.Other highlights:
Starlink subscribers: 13.6M (+89% YoY).
Nameplate compute: 1.7 GW.
Capex: $19.6B (majority AI infrastructure).
Cash & marketable securities: ~$90B.
First revenue-generating Starship mission (26 V3 Starlink satellites, ~10× Falcon 9 downlink capacity per launch).— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 20, 2026
SI adjusted EBITDA reached $5 billion, and nameplate compute capacity stood at 1.7 GW at quarter-end, up from 1.4 GW in June and 0.6 GW a year earlier. Capital expenditures totaled $19.6 billion, with the majority allocated to AI infrastructure, including continued expansion of the Colossus facilities.
The Connectivity segment, which primarily surrounds Starlink, produced $5.25 billion in revenue, a 69 percent year-over-year and 22 percent sequentially. These are pleasant results to see and expected, considering how many airlines have adopted Starlink over the past year.
Starlink consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, an 89 percent increase from the prior year, and a sequential gain of 1.6 million. Consumer average revenue per user improved to $69. Meanwhile, Enterprise and Government revenue also grew strongly, and Starlink is now installed on more than 3,800 aircraft, making internet more accessible and better performing than previous options.
The Space segment also performed well and contributed $1.77 billion in revenue, up 6 percent year-over-year and 84 percent sequentially. A major milestone was the successful first revenue-generating Starship mission (Flight 14), which deployed 26 V3 Starlink satellites. Those satellites added roughly 10 times the downlink capacity of a typical Falcon 9 Starlink launch.
SpaceX completed 12 customer launches during the quarter, including NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope mission, and continued to grow its backlog of crewed, national security, and commercial flights.
CFO commentary noted that the combination of launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and rapid SI expansion is producing meaningful operating leverage.
The company ended the quarter with roughly $90 billion in cash and marketable securities, providing substantial resources for ongoing investment while targeting an investment-grade balance sheet. Sequential revenue nearly doubled from the $7.81 billion reported in the second quarter, illustrating the pace of the AI-driven acceleration. Things are looking strong for SpaceX.
What’s incredibly striking is the fact that SI has grown to be larger than the rest of the company in such a short amount of time. CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call that Grok Bot is the “fastest-growing product I’ve ever seen,” so it seems that it could be a true keystone of SpaceXSI over the next few years.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) will report its second public earnings call today since its IPO earlier this year, and there are a few things we expect to hear about, as well as Wall Street analysts, who have already outlined their expectations for the call.
Wall Street analysts have a consensus of $12.72 billion in revenue and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13. These are broken down into three sectors: Space, Connectivity, and AI/SI, which are perceived in this way:
- Space: $1.41 billion
- Connectivity: $4.84 billion
- AI/SI: $6.47 billion
Other outlets cluster near $12.8 or $12.9 billion in revenue and $0.14 – $0.15 EPS. This implies a roughly 65 percent sequential growth from Q2’s $7.81 billion, driven mostly by AI/SI, with the first post-IPO positive EPS expected.
Here are the three things to watch for on the call:
AI Revenue Ramp and the $100B+ ARR target
AI is truly the swing factor for SpaceX, and analysts expect it to roughly double from Q2’s $2.56 billion and become about half of total revenue. Management previously guided to a $100 billion+ annualized run rate by December, including the Cursor acquisition, which was $60 billion, to close the quarter.
Listen for updates on SpaceX’s compute capacity, especially pertaining to its contracts with Google, Anthropic, and others, revenue per watt, any new deals, and Cursor’s early contribution.
Starlink/Connectivity Metrics and Mobile Expansion
Connectivity remains a main profit engine for SpaceX. Subscriber additions will be something to pay attention to, as Q2 ended at 12 million and previews are looking at 14 million for this quarter. Additionally, ARPU trends, enterprise and government growth, and any commentary on Starlink Mobile will be something to pay attention to, especially following the recent low-band spectrum deal and FCC-related constellation approvals.
Capex Trajectory, Cash Burn/FCF, and Starship/Operational Updates
Q2 capex of roughly $18.4 billion weighed on the stock. Investors will look to scrutinize Q3 spending levels, any guidance on the pace into Q4/2027, free cash flow, backlog, and liquidity. Operational color on Starship (Flight 14 milestones and Flight 15 timing/reusability progress), Falcon cadence, and government/NASA contracts are also in focus.
Of course, there will also be some speculation on the potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, but there was nothing mentioned in the company’s proxy it sent earlier this week.
SpaceX will report earnings after market close today and will stream the call on X.
Watch live as SpaceX discusses our Q3 2026 earnings at 3:30pm CT today → https://t.co/Qrb0qeVG15
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 20, 2026
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