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SpaceX’s Starhopper cleared by FAA for second and final flight test as locals urged to exit homes
After a full two weeks spent waiting for an FAA permit, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and local South Texas authorities appear to be preparing Starhopper for a second major flight test as early as Monday, August 26th.
Assuming the FAA comes through with a permit, Starhopper is scheduled to lift off no earlier than 5pm EDT (21:00 UTC) on August 26th for a flight test expected to smash the low-fidelity Starship prototype’s previously altitude record of ~20m (65 ft). Confirming initial reports from NASASpaceflight.com, Musk also stated that Starhopper’s second flight will be its last, after which the steel rocket test-bed will be converted for stationary use at SpaceX’s South Texas facilities.
Prior to Musk tweeting that Starhopper may be nearing approval for its next flight, the SpaceX CEO revealed that delays were centered around the FAA’s apparent unwillingness to permit the vehicle’s next flight. Musk specifically stated that the FAA wanted more “hazard analysis”, meaning that the US aviation administration had concerns that Starhopper could pose a serious threat to local residents in a tiny housing development known as Boca Chica Village.
Technically speaking, Boca Chica Village is just 1.5 miles (2.4 km) away from SpaceX’s Starhopper launch facilities, where the vehicle is expected to reach a maximum altitude of no more than 200m (650 ft) as early as August 26th. FAA regulations tend to be prescriptive and extremely rigid, understandable given the breadth of US aviation-related activities the agency is tasked with regulating. However, a basic back-of-the-envelope analysis of Starhopper’s 200m hop suggests that the risk to local residents – even those as few as 1.5 miles away from the test – is minuscule.
Based on Starhopper’s inaugural flight, its lone Raptor engine – producing up to 200 tons (450,000 lbf) of thrust – is not exactly capable of rapidly moving the Starship prototype. For all accounts and purposes, Starhopper is a spectacularly heavy hunk of steel with the aerodynamics of a cylindrical brick – capable of flight solely through the brute-force application of a literal rocket engine. To make it even half of the distance from its launch site to the Village, Starhopper would have to remain in controlled flight while radically deviating from its planned trajectory, all while its flight termination system (FTS) – explosives meant to destroy the vehicle in a worst-case scenario – completely fails to activate.
As evidence of the apparent lack of perceived risk to local residents, Cameron County, Texas officials distributed flyers to Village residents advising – but not requiring – those choosing to remain at their homes during the test to go outside during Starhopper’s next flight. This is recommended to avoid flying glass in the event that the vehicle explodes, potentially shattering windows with the shockwave that could result, but clearly demonstrates the fact that county officials believe there is a near-zero chance of Starhopper actually impacting anywhere near the houses.
Ultimately, Starhopper’s limited flight tests clearly pose little to no actual risk to residents, but this chapter does raise a far more significant question: what happens once Starship Mk1 is ready and the flight tests SpaceX is pursuing involve distances and heights on the order of several, tens, or hundreds of kilometers? For now, answers will have to wait til a later date.
A Hop and a skip into retirement
Aside from the delays and apparent lack of consensus on the safety of Starhopper’s minor hop tests, Musk confirmed that the prototype’s second test flight ever will likely be its last, providing some interesting insight into SpaceX’s next steps. Most notably, the fact that SpaceX is willing and ready to fully retire Starhopper after such a limited test series serves as a fairly confident statement that orbital-class Starship Mk1 (Texas) and Mk2 (Florida) prototypes are extremely close to flight-readiness.
Roughly a month ago, Musk tweeted that those Starship prototypes could be ready for their first flights as early as mid-September to mid-October, “2 to 3 months” from mid-July. In additional comments made on August 20th, Musk stated that his planned Starship presentation would be delayed in light of Starhopper’s own delays, and is now instead expected to occur around a major Starship Mk1 integration milestone in “mid September”.
As previously discussed on Teslarati, Starhopper’s brief service life is entirely unsurprising, delayed by issues with Raptor engines to the point that SpaceX’s far more valuable Starship prototypes – having made relentless progress – are already nearing completion. Once those Starships are ready for almost any kind of integrated testing, Starhopper will be made entirely and immediately redundant.
“According to Musk, either or both of those orbital-class prototypes could be ready for their inaugural flight tests as early as mid-September, perhaps just 1-2 months from now. Given that Starships Mk1 and Mk2 are significantly higher fidelity than Starhopper, the ungainly testbed will likely become redundant the moment that its successors are ready for flight. In other words, Starhopper is fast approaching the end of its useful life, and SpaceX’s fight for a 200m hop-test permit could ultimately be a waste of time, effort, and money if said permit doesn’t also cover Starship Mk1.”
Teslarati.com, August 20th, 2019
On another positive note, CEO Elon Musk says that Starhopper won’t be ‘retired’ to the scrapyard and will instead be lightly modified to serve as an in-situ test stand for Raptor engines, a useful addition once SpaceX South Texas moves on to multi-engine Starship and Super Heavy testing.
With any luck, SpaceX will attempt to livestream Starhopper’s second attempted flight. Stay tuned for updates on the 5pm EDT, August 26th test.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
