SpaceX
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 to launch new Starlink satellites from Florida this spring
NASASpaceflight.com reports that SpaceX is tentatively on target for the dedicated launch debut of its first (relatively) operational Starlink satellites as early as mid-May, indicating that the company might actually meet an extremely ambitious deadline set last year by CEO Elon Musk.
Although the CEO had briefly hinted that SpaceX would launch at least one additional round of prototype satellites – complementing the two launched in February 2018 – before moving to dedicated Starlink missions, all signs point to this mystery case being a dedicated Falcon 9 launch. Whether or not the aggressive mid-May schedule holds, the first launch of operational Starlink satellites would be a huge milestone for SpaceX’s low Earth orbit (LEO) internet constellation, meant to eventually provide high-quality, affordable broadband access to almost anyone on Earth.
Linking the stars in phases
In November 2018, SpaceX filed a modification to the license it been previously granted by the FCC (Federal Communications Commission) in March, requesting that it be allowed to dramatically change the first phase of its Starlink satellite constellation. In short, SpaceX wanted to find a faster and cheaper way to deploy its first Starlink satellites as quickly as possible.
“[SpaceX] will utilize key elements from its experimental satellites, such as its sophisticated phased-array antennas and its advanced Hall-effect thrusters, as the foundation of a more efficient and cost-effective architecture that can rapidly accelerate deployment for the overall constellation while optimizing space safety.” – Starlink FCC license modification request, SpaceX, 11/8/2018
This modification almost certainly arose as a direct result of CEO Elon Musk’s June 2018 ultimatum, in which he reportedly fired Starlink executives deemed uncooperative in order to rapidly speed up the constellation’s time-to-market. In fact, according to Reuters, Musk challenged the Starlink team to begin launching the constellation’s first operational satellites just one year later (June 2019), an extraordinary aspiration standing a handful of months after the group had launched its first two early satellite prototypes. According to a source
While both sides presumably have good reasons for their stubborn preferences, Musk may well be in the right at the end of the day, particularly given the sheer level of competition to complete LEO internet constellations and begin serving customers. An overly cautious approach could risk being so late to market that multiple competitors, ranging from relatively established entrants OneWeb and Telesat to more obscure companies like WorldVu and Space Norway. Barely a week ago, OneWeb completed the first successful launch of its constellation, placing six demonstration satellites in orbit to prove their technology and reduce risk prior to commencing operational launches with 30+ satellites apiece. Furthermore, both Tesla and SpaceX have more or less flourished while using the same approach, evidenced by a culture of continuous improvement where both electric cars and rocket engines are constantly upgraded and improved upon. Falcon 9 famously features a bevy of versions or “blocks”, culminating recently in Falcon 9 Block 5’s major reusability and reliability optimizations.
A little crazy, but it works
Whether or not Musk can be more than a little crazy, it’s nearly impossible to coherently deny the fact that his strategy of delivering a minimum viable product as quickly as possible and gradually improving it over time has a polished record of success. Once again, Falcon 9 is the best and most relevant example in the context of Starlink. SpaceX’s now-workhorse rocket began in a form (Falcon 9 V1.0) nearly unrecognizable compared to its most recent edition, featuring far less performance, no reusability, and an older and less capable version of Merlin. Falcon 9 V1.1 was a radical – almost clean-sheet –
In short, when Elon Musk and other SpaceX engineers originally conceived of Falcon 9 in the early 2000s, 2018’s Falcon 9 Block 5 was effectively the rocket they were imagining. Rather than spending countless hundreds of millions of dollars to privately design, test, and redesign multiple prototype iterations, Musk et al built a minimum viable product, began launching payloads for paying customers (both government and commercial), and used the company’s reputation, commercial success, and flight experience to shape Falcon 9 into the industry leader it is today.
Put simply, there is no reason to think that the same approach will not prove equally fruitful when applied to satellites instead of rockets. While SpaceX has yet to receive an FCC grant for its Starlink modification request, the company summarized its updated strategy in the November 2018 filing. The request effectively “relocates” the first phase of its 4,425 (now 4209) satellite LEO constellation, moving 1584 satellites from an 1100 km to 550 km orbit and simplifying the design of the first operational spacecraft by using just one spectrum segment (Ku-band) instead of two (Ku- and Ka-band). Hardware to exploit that additional spectrum will be developed and added to Starlink satellites and ground hardware down the road. As such, regardless of how unrefined SpaceX’s first operational Starlink satellites could be, the launch will be just as much of a milestone.
SpaceX will also be able to demonstrate a truly unique aspect of Starlink that helps bolsters its competitive advantage: vertically integrated production and launch of its satellites. Based on FCC permit requests filed last month, SpaceX plans to conduct the first dedicated launch from its Florida-based LC-40 pad, with the Falcon 9 booster landing more than 600 km (370 mi) offshore on drone ship
In other words, Starlink’s operational debut could very well be the heaviest payload SpaceX has yet to launch on a single mission. Weighing less than 500 kg apiece with a dispenser (per Iridium NEXT) around 10% of the total payload mass, SpaceX will likely launch anywhere from 20-40 Starlink satellites at once, depending on the final mass of these first spacecraft and their custom-built dispenser. While delays from the late-April to mid-May launch target are arguably quite likely, the fact that the first operational Starlink launch is tentatively scheduled even less than half a year away bodes very well for tangible constellation progress in 2019.
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The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) stands to reap one of the most extraordinary returns in pension fund history thanks to a bold 2019 investment in SpaceX.
According to a recent report from The Globe and Mail, the Toronto-based fund invested roughly $300 million CAD (~$220 million USD at the time) in Elon Musk’s space company as its inaugural deal through the Teachers’ Innovation Platform.
At SpaceX’s anticipated $1.75 trillion IPO valuation, set for a mid-June debut on Nasdaq under ticker $SPCX, that stake could now be worth up to $11.6 billion USD. This would represent a roughly 50x return and easily become OTPP’s most successful single investment ever.
The fund manages $279 billion in assets for approximately 346,000 working and retired teachers in Ontario, potentially delivering an average boost of around $33,500 per member if fully realized.
SpaceX has filed its S-1 and plans to price shares at $135 each, aiming to raise a record $75 billion in what would be the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco. The company reported $18.67 billion in revenue for 2025, driven primarily by Starlink satellite internet growth and NASA contracts, though it continues to post significant losses tied to ambitious R&D in Starship and AI initiatives.
Important pieces moving forward include:
- Starlink Expansion: The satellite broadband service is scaling rapidly, targeting global connectivity, especially in underserved rural and remote areas. This segment offers massive recurring revenue potential as numbers climb.
- Starship and Reusability Leadership: SpaceX’s fully reusable Starship aims to slash launch costs dramatically, enabling frequent missions, Mars ambitions, and lucrative government/defense contracts. Success here could unlock exponential growth.
- AI and Diversification: Recent moves, including ties to xAI, position SpaceX in high-growth AI infrastructure, broadening beyond traditional aerospace.
- Validation Scrutiny: While the $1.75 trillion target excites investors, analysts like Morningstar value the company closer to $780 billion, citing high multiples (around 90x trailing revenue) and execution risks. A 180-day lockup period will prevent early investors like OTPP from selling immediately post-IPO.
The irony has not been lost on observers. Ontario’s government previously canceled a Starlink rural internet contract amid political tensions involving Musk, yet the pension fund’s savvy investment, made when SpaceX was valued around $33-36 billion, and Starlink was nascent, delivers outsized gains independent of politics.
For OTPP, this windfall strengthens its already solid 111 percent funding ratio and underscores the value of patient, innovation-focused capital allocation.
For SpaceX, the IPO marks a new chapter: greater transparency, access to public markets for talent retention and growth capital, and heightened pressure to deliver on its multi-planetary vision.
All eyes are fixed on whether SpaceX can justify its lofty valuation through sustained execution. For Ontario teachers, the returns are already stellar, but SpaceX, like other Musk companies in the past, has plenty of things to prove. Perhaps the most ideal person for the job is at the helm, hoping to bring the company to a massive valuation.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation
A single line in SpaceX’s amended S-1 just sent Tesla stock down 5% in one day.
A single line buried in SpaceX’s amended S-1 filing is doing more to move Tesla’s stock price than anything Tesla itself has announced in months. The clause, disclosed as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, states that the company “may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions.” While this may be seen as boilerplate language in S-1 filings, the historical ties between SpaceX and Tesla, and with Elon Musk reportedly discussing a possible merger with close colleagues, investors are interpreting it as something closer to a signal.
The concern among institutional investors like Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, pointed directly to the amended filing on X, saying it “strongly suggests more SPCX equity will be issued,” which could potentially be used to acquire Tesla. He estimated such a deal could be 28% dilutive to Tesla shareholders since SpaceX would likely command a significantly higher valuation multiple. Black added that institutional investors he knows hate the idea of a combination because they prefer pure plays over conglomerates, which he said “nearly always gravitate to the lowest common multiple.”
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
The bull case runs the math differently. Tesla influencer and retail shareholder advocate AleXandra Merz pushed back on what she called a widespread misunderstanding of how merger-of-equals deals actually work. Rather than simply splitting the difference between two market caps, a merger exchange ratio is negotiated based on relative fair market values, meaning the lower valued company typically sees its stock reprice upward toward the deal value.
Under her model, SpaceX enters at a $2.5 trillion valuation and Tesla at $1.6 trillion, producing a combined entity worth $4.1 trillion split evenly between both shareholder groups. That implies Tesla’s side of the deal would be valued at $2.05 trillion, a gain of roughly $450 billion from its current market cap. She cited Dow-DuPont and CBS-Viacom as historical examples of how markets reprice both companies toward the announced exchange ratio after a deal is unveiled.
What does a Merger of Equals mean to Elon’s compensation packages?
Well, it changes everything.
Enjoy https://t.co/uekCldyITw pic.twitter.com/kolq1C9qTu
— AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 (@TeslaBoomerMama) June 1, 2026
The SpaceX S-1 amendments also revealed just how much financial infrastructure already binds the two companies together. As Teslarati has reported, SpaceX purchased $697 million in Tesla Megapacks, $131 million in Cybertrucks, and the two companies have shared supply chain resources, and semiconductor fabrication plans since well before any merger conversation became public. A retail poll by Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt is finding that 36% of respondents do not plan to buy SpaceX shares at IPO and 15.3% saying their decision depends on the valuation.
Do you plan on buying @SpaceX stock at its IPO?
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 1, 2026
Whether the merger happens or not, the amended filing is seemingly moving markets and sharpened a debate that is no longer theoretical. SpaceX is weeks away from trading publicly, and Tesla shareholders are now watching every word of every filing for clues about what Musk plans to do next.
Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.
The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.
This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026
According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.
The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.
Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.
Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.
SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.
By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.
They’ll have plenty of suitors.
This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.
As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.
The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.
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