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Elon Musk sets expectations for SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launches

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that Starship's orbital launch debut could happen as early as September 2022. (SpaceX)

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3 years ago

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CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s first successful orbital Starship launch will “probably [occur] between 1 and 12 months from now,” revealing a surprising amount about the near future of the next-generation rocket program in a short tweet.

The famously (over)optimistic CEO’s latest Starship schedule estimate is uncharacteristically cautious, hedged, and open-ended while simultaneously setting some reasonable expectations about the likelihood of success.

First publicly unveiled in September 2016, the fully-reusable, next-generation rocket that eventually became today’s stainless steel Starship was tentatively scheduled to begin orbital flight testing in 2020. About two years after that first announcement, CEO Elon Musk unexpectedly sacrificed years of development work on Starship structures when he decided to replace the rocket’s carbon fiber composite airframe with stainless steel. Years later, it’s still hard to say if that decision was the right one, but Starship development has been surprisingly unperturbed by such an immense last-second design change.

While Musk was saying almost the same thing 12 months ago, the CEO now believes that Starship’s first orbital launch attempt could happen as early as next month – September 2022. Simultaneously, Musk believes that the first orbital launch attempt could be “successful,” although it’s not entirely clear how he defines “success.” Less optimistically, his August 2nd tweet also implies that he wouldn’t be surprised if it takes SpaceX a year and multiple attempts to achieve Starship’s first successful orbital launch.

It’s even possible to interpret his tweet as a warning that Starship’s first orbital launch – while more likely to be successful – could be up to 12 months away.

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Booster 7 (right) and Booster 8 (left).

Somewhere in the middle (4-8 months from now) is a more reasonable bet for Starship’s first successful orbital launch. As of early August, no aspect of recent Starship or Super Heavy booster testing is particularly encouraging for a hypothetical September launch attempt: Super Heavy Booster 7 is still in the middle of repairs after surviving an accidental explosion, and Starship 24’s latest round of testing – while not yet destructive – has been sluggish.

If SpaceX (beginning on August 3rd) abruptly flips a switch and starts to test Ship 24 with some degree of urgency, it’s possible that the Starship could be cleared for the first orbital launch attempt by the end of August. Super Heavy is a much larger hurdle. Aside from the apparent removal of all of Booster 7’s 33 Raptor engines, which will likely take weeks to reinstall and re-cover, its status is somewhat ambiguous. If SpaceX decides to fast-track Booster 8, which is nearly ready for engine-less proof testing, the Super Heavy side of Starship’s orbital launch debut is probably at least two or three months away from flight readiness.

Realistically, assuming SpaceX isn’t going to take a massive risk and try to launch an unqualified or minimally qualified rocket, Starship’s first orbital launch attempt is unlikely to occur before October or November. It’s even harder to estimate whether Starship’s first full launch will be successful. If “success” is defined by simply reaching orbit or deploying a few next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s odds are not terrible. If success includes a Super Heavy booster catch and Starship surviving its first orbital reentry, they trend towards slim to none.

Perhaps SpaceX will defy the odds. Up next, Starship S24 is expected to begin static fire testing as early as August 3rd or 4th.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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xAI supercomputer faces lawsuit over air pollution concerns

NAACP & environmental groups are suing Elon Musk’s xAI over turbine emissions at its Colossus supercomputer site.

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49 minutes ago

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June 18, 2025

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xAI-supercomputer-memphis-environment-pushback
(Credit: xAI)

The xAI supercomputer, Colossus, faces a potential lawsuit from the NAACP and the Southern Environmental Law Center over pollution concerns tied to its gas-powered turbines. The facility has sparked debate over its environmental impact versus economic benefits.

The xAI data center has been operational since last year. The company used pollution-emitting turbines without an air permit, citing a 364-day exemption. Southern Environmental Law Center attorney Patrick Anderson disputed xAI’s exemption, stating: “there is no such exemption for turbines — and that regardless, it has now been more than 364 days.”

The groups issued a 60-day notice of intent to sue under the Clean Air Act, challenging xAI’s permit application under review by the Shelby County Health Department.

According to AP, critics argue the turbines emit smog, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, worsening health risks in an area with cancer rates four times the national average.

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“The permit itself says emissions from the site ‘will be an area source for hazardous air pollutants,’” the Southern Environmental Law Center noted, alleging Clean Air Act violations.

Opponents claim xAI installed up to 35 turbines—exceeding the 15 requested—without community oversight, straining Memphis’s power grid.

xAI responded: “The temporary power generation units are operating in compliance with all applicable laws.”

The company highlighted its economic contributions, including billions in investments, millions in taxes, and hundreds of jobs. At an April community meeting, xAI’s Brent Mayo underscored that the “tax revenue will support vital programs like public safety, health, human services, education, firefighters, police, parks, and so much more.” He projected that xAI would generate over $100 million in tax revenue by next year. The company is also investing $35 million in a power substation and $80 million in a water recycling plant.

Additionally, xAI is transitioning to sustainable power, particularly Tesla Megapacks. It is actively working on demobilizing the gas turbines.

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“The temporary natural gas turbines that were being used to power the [xAI’s] Phase I GPUs prior to grid connection are now being demobilized and will be removed from the site over the next two months,” shared the Greater Memphis Chamber. xAI brought Tesla Megapack batteries and a 150-megawatt substation online earlier this year.

Despite xAI’s expansion to a second 1-million-square-foot site, the lawsuit threat underscores tensions between innovation and environmental justice.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk hits back at drug use claims, calls publications ‘hypocrites’

Elon Musk showed a clean drug test, dispelling any rumors of drug use that came from unfounded reports from two large media outlets.

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15 hours ago

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June 17, 2025

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Credit: Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to a report from the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, as both publications claimed he was abusing drugs while being involved with President Trump on both the campaign trail and while he was active within the administration after the election.

A bombshell report from the New York Times, published in late May, stated that Musk was regularly using things like ketamine, ecstasy, and psychedelic mushrooms, and also stimulants like Adderall, during his time within the Trump administration.

The reports cited inside sources who claimed the Tesla and SpaceX frontman was using substances during his time with the government.

However, Musk published the results of a recent drug test performed at Fastest Labs of South Austin. They showed ‘Negative’ results across the board:

Musk was not done there.

He went on to say the New York Times “lies as easy as breathing. It’s normal for them.” He also said both the Times and Wall Street Journal reporters should also publish their own drug test results, stating, “They won’t, because those hypocrites are guilty as sin.”

Musk said years ago that he received ketamine prescriptions from doctors to treat depression. He said he had it “years ago and said so on X, so this is not even news.” He also said that ketamine “helps for getting out of dark mental holes, but haven’t taken it since then.”

Tesla fans and Musk enthusiasts have joked for days now that, if Musk were to be on drugs, other CEOs should also do them, considering his persistence on work-related projects, long hours, and commitment to his job.

Musk has now proven that there has been no drug use with this test, and it seems as if the reports could have some sort of legal impact, although he has not said he will take any action.

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Tesla’s Grok integration will be more realistic with this cool feature

Tesla is preparing Grok for its first integration into vehicles, but it’s making it more robust than ever, firmware shows.

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16 hours ago

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June 17, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has not yet integrated the AI assistant Grok into its vehicles, but when it does, it will be even more realistic with a new feature that firmware coding shows.

CEO Elon Musk teased a few months back that Grok would be making its way into vehicles in the near future. The implementation has not yet occurred, but we are confident it will be rolling out soon, especially as Tesla has its sights set on a near-term rollout of the Robotaxi platform.

Tesla’s vehicles expected to get Grok voice assistant—but when?

Grok will enable AI assistance for drivers who are both manually operating Tesla vehicles or using the company’s Full Self-Driving suite. It has been widely popular and extremely useful for users on X, Musk’s social media platform.

However, Tesla hacker green has revealed through firmware that the company is planning to roll out Grok into vehicles with personalities, giving it an even more realistic tone that is totally customizable and catered to whatever the driver wants.

There are also a handful of kids’ versions that will do things like tell stories or play trivia:

The true capabilities of Grok are nearly limitless. Back in January, Musk said on a livestream on X that, “You’ll be able to talk to your Tesla and ask for anything.”

Grok appears to only be available on AMD-based vehicles, according to other things green found in the firmware. This means that Intel-based Teslas, which are usually older models, will not enable Grok support for right now.

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