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SpaceX says Starship can beat ‘plasma blackout’ with Starlink antennas
SpaceX has asked the FCC to allow Starship and its Super Heavy booster to communicate with Starlink during the rocket’s first orbital launch attempt, potentially unlocking game-changing capabilities.
Filed on June 28th, SpaceX’s Special Temporary Authority (STA) application contains a number of surprising details about the company’s plans to expand the experimental use of its Starlink satellite constellation to communicate with rockets in flight. That effort was first made public in April 2021 when a separate FCC application revealed plans to test Starlink on a Starship prototype. Starship serial number 15 (now known as Ship 15 or S15).
That particular prototype became the first of its kind to successfully launch and land in one piece on May 5th. Nothing is known about whether Starlink was actually used or how the Starship’s lone dish performed during the 10 kilometer (6.2 mi) flight test, but SpaceX’s plans to again combine both two Star– programs do offer some new lines to read between.
Relative to its first Starlink-Starship STA application, SpaceX splits no hairs in the ‘narrative’ attached to its latest request. Specifically, SpaceX repeatedly discusses the potential for Starlink to drastically improve the state of the art of routine spacecraft and launch vehicle telemetry and communications.
“SpaceX intends demonstrate high data rate communications with Starship and the Super Heavy Booster on the ground at the launch site in Starbase, TX during launch, during booster recovery, in flight, and during reentry. Starlink can provide unprecedented volumes of telemetry and enable communications during atmospheric reentry when ionized plasma around the spacecraft inhibits conventional telemetry frequencies. These tests will demonstrate Starlink’s ability to improve the efficiency and safety of future orbital spaceflight missions.“
SpaceX — June 28th, 2021
In short, in the two months since SpaceX first requested permission “to operate a single user terminal…during flight tests,” the company appears to have become extremely bullish about Starlink’s potential as a solution for rocket communications. The logical conclusion is that Starlink performed well during its trials aboard Starship S15 on the ground and in flight – possibly even exceeding SpaceX’s own expectations. Simultaneously, SpaceX is in the midst of expanding efforts to certify Starlink for aviation communications and has been generally ramping up tests on aircraft, ships, and road vehicles.
Indeed, at least in theory, the same attributes that allow Starlink to blow traditional consumer satellite communications solutions out of the water could make Starlink a boon for launch vehicle communications. That’s especially true for the test flights of experimental launch vehicles like Starship, where failure is an inevitable part of the development process. However, those launch failures are only beneficial insofar as they expand the knowledge base and allow lessons to be learned.
Data, in other words, is essential, and the more data recovered from test flights, the better. Even on modern rockets, state-of-the-art telemetry usually involves maximum bandwidth on the order of a few hundred to a few thousand kilobits per second, often requiring software and compression gymnastics and uncomfortable triage to ensure that all necessary telemetry keeps flowing.
If Starlink could expand that bandwidth from a few megabits per second (Mbps) to dozens or even hundreds of Mbps, SpaceX could extract unprecedentedly widespread and high-resolution telemetry from Starship and Super Heavy during their first orbital test flight, leaving a wealth of data for likely post-flight failure analyses.
Perhaps most surprising is SpaceX’s claim that Starlink antennas could allow Starship to maintain a strong communications link throughout orbital reentry. Traditionally, all spacecraft capable of reentry produce a superheated sheath of plasma as they careen into Earth’s upper atmosphere. That plasma effectively blocks most radio waves, creating an inevitable several-minute communications ‘blackout’ for any reentering spacecraft.
If Starlink can somehow allow SpaceX to break through that ‘plasma barrier,’ it would give the company an unprecedented capability invaluable for the process of perfecting orbital Starship reentry, descent, and landing – a process Musk expects to involve several unsuccessful attempts. According to SpaceX’s FCC application, Starship’s first orbital launch and reentry attempt could occur as early as August 2021.
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Xpeng CEO: Tesla FSD 14.2 has developed “near-Level 4” performance
While acknowledging that imperfections remain, the Xpeng CEO said FSD’s current iteration significantly surpasses last year’s capabilities.
Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng has offered fresh praise for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system after revisiting Silicon Valley more than a year after his first hands-on experience.
Following extended test drives of Tesla vehicles running the latest FSD software, He stated that the system has made major strides, reinforcing his view that Tesla’s approach to autonomy is indeed the proper path towards autonomy.
Tesla FSD closing in on Level 4 driving
During his visit, He test-drove a Tesla equipped with FSD V14.2. He also rode in a Tesla Robotaxi. Over roughly five hours of driving across Silicon Valley and San Francisco, He said both vehicles delivered consistent and reassuring performance, a notable improvement from his experience a year earlier.
According to He, Tesla’s FSD has evolved from a smooth Level 2 advanced driver assistance system into what he described as a “near-Level 4” experience in terms of capabilities. While acknowledging that imperfections remain, the Xpeng CEO said FSD’s current iteration significantly surpasses last year’s capabilities. He also reiterated his belief that Tesla’s strategy of using the same autonomous software and hardware architecture across private vehicles and robotaxis is the right long-term approach, allowing users to bypass intermediate autonomy stages and move closer to Level 4 functionality.
He previously tested Tesla’s FSD V12.3.6 and Waymo vehicles in California in mid-2024, noting at the time that Waymo performed better in dense urban environments like San Francisco, while Tesla excelled in Silicon Valley and on highways.
Xpeng’s ambitious autonomy roadmap and internal challenge
The Silicon Valley visit also served as a benchmark for Xpeng’s own autonomy ambitions. He stated that Xpeng is looking to improve its VLA autonomous driving system to match the performance of Tesla’s FSD V14.2 within China by August 30, 2026. Xpeng is poised to release its VLA 2.0 smart driving software next quarter, though He cautioned that the initial version will not be able to match FSD V14.2’s capabilities, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
He also added a personal twist to the goal, publicly challenging Xpeng’s autonomous driving team. If the performance target is met by the 2026 deadline, the CEO stated that he will approve the creation of a Chinese-style cafeteria for Xpeng’s Silicon Valley team. If not, Liu Xianming, head of Xpeng’s autonomous driving unit, has pledged to run naked across the Golden Gate Bridge, He noted.
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Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
A look at Tesla China’s order page shows that new Model 3 LR RWD orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant in China appears to have sold out for January 2026, with the vehicle now showing an estimated delivery date of February 2026 for new orders. This bodes well for the all-electric sedan, which has maintained notable sales despite more affordable rivals like the Xiaomi SU7 and its crossover sibling, the Model Y.
Model 3 LR RWD joins February 2026 queue
A look at Tesla China’s order page for the all-electric sedan shows that new Model 3 Long Range Rear Wheel Drive orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026. Priced from RMB 259,500 ($36,810), the LR RWD sits as the second-lowest-priced trim in Tesla China’s four-variant Model 3 lineup. The move follows a similar delivery timeframe for the Model 3 Performance, which remains the most expensive option for the vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
The estimated delivery dates of the two remaining Model 3 variants remain unchanged for now. The base RWD version, starting at RMB 235,500, and the LR AWD variant, priced from RMB 285,500, both continue to list estimated delivery times of 4-6 weeks. Tesla China, for its part, has continued to list in-stock Model 3 vehicles and is actively encouraging buyers to select inventory units for delivery before the end of the year.
Model Y delays and policy shifts
Delivery timelines for the Model Y in China are also stretching into 2026. All customized Model Y variants now show February 2026 as their estimated delivery date, except for the entry-level version, which still lists January 2026. Tesla has been urging customers since November to prioritize purchasing inventory vehicles, a push aimed at maximizing year-end deliveries.
Timing matters for Chinese buyers due to upcoming changes in government incentives. China’s new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption will be scaled back in 2026, which means customers who take delivery next year could face higher tax costs compared to those who are able to receive vehicles before the end of the year.
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla recorded retail sales of 73,145 vehicles in November, down 0.47% year over year. From January through November, Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 531,855 units, a 7.37% year-over-year drop.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
Xpeng CEO: Tesla FSD 14.2 has developed “near-Level 4” performance
Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
