News
SpaceX Starship aborts Raptor engine test, briefly catches fire
Update: On March 15th, SpaceX got within milliseconds of Starship serial number 11’s (SN11) first Raptor engine test but suffered an abort just before full ignition, briefly leaving the rocket on fire.
Around 12:26 pm CDT, after an otherwise nominal static fire flow, Starship SN11 momentarily ignited one or two of its three Raptor engines’ preburners, referring to a central component that burns cryogenic liquid propellant into gas that’s ready for combustion. As with all preburner tests, intentional or otherwise, the end result looked a bit like a weak static fire and produced a small but visible amount of flame and thrust. Unlike intentional preburner tests, the static fire abort seemingly ignited something hidden inside Starship SN11’s and appeared to burn for at least another 30-40 seconds.
Raptor has proven itself to be an extremely durable engine, up to and including surviving visible onboard fires during actual Starship flight tests. Nevertheless, depending on the source of SN11’s post-abort fire and what it may or may not have burned or damaged, it’s no surprise that SpaceX ended testing for the day instead of quickly trying again, which it’s done several times prior. If the fire was largely harmless, SpaceX has already distributed notices suggesting a second attempt could happen as early as 6am to 12pm CDT (UTC-5) on Tuesday, March 16th. If more time is needed, SpaceX has the rest of the week to conduct any necessary repairs or swap out SN11’s Raptor engines.
Public documents show that SpaceX has plans to static fire and launch its latest Starship prototype within a two-day period that could begin later today.
SpaceX shipped Starship SN11 from its Boca Chica, Texas rocket factory to test and launch facilities a mile down the road on March 8th, less than five days after Starship SN10 exploded minutes after touchdown. The very next day, SpaceX completed ambient-temperature proof testing, filling Starship with benign nitrogen gas to check for leaks and verify system health. Two days after that, Starship SN11 appeared to complete a several-hour cryogenic proof test – swapping nitrogen gas for its supercool liquid form – without issue.
Despite the seemingly successful ‘cryo proof,’ something prevented a subsequent static fire test planned on March 12th before any attempt could be made, delaying the next attempt until after the approaching weekend. An agreement between SpaceX, Cameron County, and the state of Texas currently prevents road closures (and thus rocket testing) on weekends falling between Labor Day and Memorial Day, rules meant to preserve some level of public access to Boca Chica Beach.
As a result, unless SpaceX is already ready to launch (it has waivers for three such weekend closures for launch attempts), the company has to wait until Monday even if a minor issue fixable in hours or a day or so scrubs Friday test plans. While inconvenient, it’s worth noting that the existence of that public beach and the strong regulations that protect its public domain is likely one of the only reasons the general public can still get as close as they can to SpaceX’s Boca Chica ‘Starbase’.
For whatever reason, that road closure agreement does still mean that SpaceX will (in theory) be able to test and launch any day of the week from May 31st to September 6th, save for a few holidays, effectively boosting the number of opportunities by 40% for those 14 weeks. Until then, SpaceX is doing everything it can to take full advantage of the five days a week it is allowed to test Starship prototypes. N
Notably, although Starships SN8 and SN9 both hit a few weeks of technical and regulatory snags while preparing for their high-altitude launch attempts, SpaceX has been gradually speeding up that process over time. Starship SN10, the first prototype of its kind to land in one piece, took just 33 days to go from pad arrival to liftoff and spent just 8 days between its first static fire and launch attempts. The same feats took Starship SN8 77 and 50 days, respectively, with SN9 splitting the difference at 43 days from transport to liftoff and 28 days between its first static fire and launch attempts.
Road closure requests, a safety warning for residents, and a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) filed with the FAA all suggest that SpaceX’s current plan is to attempt Starship SN11’s first triple-Raptor static fire between 6am and 12pm CDT on Monday, March 15th. If that test goes almost perfectly, SpaceX wants to turn the rocket around for a 10 km (6.2 mi) launch attempt on Tuesday, March 16th – the very next day. Given the past performance of high-altitude Starship prototypes, that target is decidedly ambitious and likely to incur delays, but it still reveals the true scope of SpaceX’s goals even at this early stage of development.
If Starship SN11 does manage to launch within a few days of its first static fire attempt, SpaceX would still crush SN10’s 33-day record by a factor of three. Stay tuned for updates on Monday’s possible Starship static fire and rapid Tuesday turnaround attempt
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.
More price target movement:
🚀 Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
🚀 Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
🚀 Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
🚀 UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy)
🚀TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
🚀Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
🚀Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.
The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.
Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.
These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:
- JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
- Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
- Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
- UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
- TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
- Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
- Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.
Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.
The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.
Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect
SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions
