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SpaceX's three surviving thrice-flown Block 5 boosters - B1048, B1049, and B1046 - are pictured here in various stages of recovery. (Teslarati, Pauline Acalin) SpaceX's three surviving thrice-flown Block 5 boosters - B1048, B1049, and B1046 - are pictured here in various stages of recovery. (Teslarati, Pauline Acalin)

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SpaceX sets new Falcon 9 Block 5 reusability milestones for second half of 2019

Falcon 9 B1048, B1049, and B1046 pictured in various stages of their most recent launches. Together, the three have supported nine successful orbital-class launches. (Tom Cross & Pauline Acalin)

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Speaking at 2019’s Asia-Pacific Satellite (APSAT) Conference, SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Jonathan Hofeller – squeezed into a sea of breaking-news updates – announced that the company plans to launch the same Falcon 9 Block 5 booster for the fifth (or sixth) time by the end of 2019.

Just an add-on at the end of a number of updates focused on SpaceX’s next-generation Starship/Super Heavy rocket, the phrasing reported by SpaceNews.com technically means that there are plans for a Falcon 9 booster to launch for the sixth time in the second half of 2019. The demonstration of such an extreme level of operational reusability barely 18 months after Falcon 9 Block 5’s debut would make it clear that SpaceX’s latest Falcon upgrade has been a resounding success. In line with those positive signs, Hofeller also noted that SpaceX is already starting to transfer the fruits of those labors to its customers by permanently lowering the base price of Falcon 9 launch contracts.

Most recently, SpaceX flew the same Falcon 9 booster for the third time (B1049) in support of its first dedicated Starlink launch, May 2019. (SpaceX/Teslarati)

Block 5 off to a spectacular start

First reported on by SpaceNews’ Caleb Henry, one of a few spaceflight journalists able to attend 2019’s Jakarta, Indonesia-based APSAT conference, details about the near-term future of Falcon 9 Block 5 reusability milestones were effectively tacked on at the end of much higher-profile breaking-news tidbits. Although wildly ambitious Starship goals led headlines (stay tuned for Teslarati’s own analysis later this week), the fact remains that ambitious development goals are inherently tenuous and likely to slip, particularly when the subject is large-scale, fully-reusable launch vehicles developed from a nearly blank slate.

What is not up for debate, however, is the fact that SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Block 5 upgrade is already flying routinely and reliably. After a successful debut in May 2018, Block 5 took over all SpaceX launches less than two months later. Since then, a total of 12 freshly-built Block 5 boosters have supported 16 Falcon 9 and 2 Falcon Heavy launches, ten – more than half – of which involved flight-proven boosters. According to official statements made recently by SpaceX executives, Block 5 boosters are expected to support an additional 12-19* launches in the second half of 2019.

*Derived by stacking “2-6 dedicated Starlink launches” and SpaceX’s 2019 target of 18-21 non–Starlink launches

Moving into 2019, SpaceX is likely just months away from its next triple and quadruple-reuse milestones.
Falcon 9 B1046 became the first SpaceX booster to launch three separate times in early-December 2018. (Pauline Acalin)

Tied directly to claims that the same Falcon 9 Block 5 booster will launch for the fifth or sixth time by the end of 2019, SpaceX already has three Falcon 9 boosters that have each completed a trio of launches, as well as an additional five with either one or two launches under their belts. Pictured at the top of the article, all three thrice-flown Falcon 9 boosters – B1046, B1048, and B1049 – could arguably be selected to become the next pathfinder as SpaceX prepares to put boosters through their fourth launches and beyond.

Rumored to be assigned to Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort (IFA) test prior to a major capsule anomaly on April 20th, B1046 could be off the manifest if SpaceX is confident that said IFA test can still be performed within the next several months. It’s currently unclear if that is a viable option for SpaceX’s Crew Dragon schedule, likely to remain uncertain until the failure investigation is fully completed and any necessary design/hardware/software fixes have been implemented. B1046 completed its third launch in December 2018 (a full six months ago), followed by B1048 in February 2019 and B1049 in May 2019. Although the “unknown territory” aspect of Block 5 reuse milestones is becoming less noteworthy, SpaceX is still likely to treat B104X’s fourth launch as a pathfinder, requiring extra time to dot I’s and cross T’s. With B1046 and B1048 potentially ready to go, that milestone could come any time now.

Falcon 9 B1046 lands aboard drone ship OCISLY after its third successful launch in December 2018, a reusability milestone for SpaceX. (SpaceX)

SpaceX customers already reaping financial benefits

Meanwhile, although certain heads-in-sand competitors continue to act and claim otherwise, SpaceX has reportedly normalized earlier prices for customers flying on flight-proven milestone missions. Speaking at APSAT, SpaceX’s Jonathan Hofeller indicated that that pricing is now the company’s “normal pricing”, pushing Falcon 9’s base price as low as ~$50M according to comments CEO Elon Musk made about a year ago. Two years prior to those comments and about six months prior to SpaceX’s first-ever booster reuse, COO and President Gwynne Shotwell reported that the company was offering discounts of ~10% for customers willing to contract launches on flight-proven Falcon 9 boosters.

In other words, SpaceX has cut Falcon 9’s base launch costs by anywhere from 10-20% over the last three years, a period in which the Falcon 9 V1.2 Full Thrust rocket’s capabilities were also dramatically upgraded from Block 1 (debut: December 2015) through Block 5 (debut: May 2018). Speaking during a press conference focused on Falcon 9 Block 5’s launch debut, CEO Elon Musk estimated that SpaceX has spent more than $1 billion to develop Falcon 9 reusability, while he previously estimated Falcon Heavy’s development costs to be well north of ~$500M. Musk and other execs have previously confirmed that SpaceX means to recoup some or all of that investment, indicating that the current margins of Falcon 9 launch contracts must be extremely favorable.

A remote camera set up by Teslarati photographer Pauline Acalin captured this incredible view of all 27 Merlin 1D engines powering Falcon Heavy’s first stage. (Pauline Acalin)

SpaceX has a healthy commercial manifest and will need to support dozens to hundreds of its own dedicated Starlink launches in order to orbit an operational and profitable constellation.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla reveals Optimus Academy, where robots teach themselves

Tesla has begun building production quality Optimus robots in Fremont and revealed its training plan.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Tesla has started building Optimus on the high volume line it set up inside its Fremont factory, and the company says the robots coming off it are the first that meet the bar for a real product. “The bots coming off this line are the first production-quality bots that we have manufactured,” Tesla wrote in its third quarter shareholder letter, adding that it has “proven that the current manufacturing process for Optimus is suitable for a commercial product.”

The line sits in space that built the Model S and Model X until this spring. Tesla cleared the old vehicle line in 46 days, as Teslarati reported in July, to make room for robot production sized for one million units a year. On Wednesday’s earnings call, Elon Musk said most of the equipment for that capacity is already in Fremont, with output set to climb toward roughly 20,000 robots a week as the line ramps.

Musk described the ramp as a classic S curve. “The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope,” he said. The team is now refining the robot’s AI, electromechanical design, reliability and service life, and Musk expects that work to be finished by the end of next year, when Tesla plans to start delivering Optimus to outside companies for dangerous, repetitive and around the clock jobs.

The most interesting part of the call was how Tesla plans to teach the robots. Its cars send real driving data back to the AI team from millions of vehicles, but Optimus has no fleet like that yet. “A big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don’t have this vast fleet of cars from which we can gather training data,” Musk said. Tesla’s answer is an Optimus Academy, where 10,000 to 20,000 robots will practice a wide range of tasks and feed what they learn into the next version of the model. Every unit off the Fremont line becomes a source of that training data.

Smarter hardware is on the way too. Tesla plans to put its AI5 chip into Optimus next year, and Musk said a new Optimus video should arrive within one or two months showing the robot completing tasks driven by AI rather than preprogrammed motions. He took aim at rival humanoid demos that only run scripted routines, saying those would not hold up in the real world.

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The supply chain is lining up behind the program. In September, Tesla certified Tuopu, Joyson and Sanhua as mass production partners for Optimus components. A far larger Optimus factory is also rising at Giga Texas, where drone footage from Joe Tegtmeyer showed the steel frame nearing completion, and Musk has pegged that plant’s long term target at 10 million robots a year.

Tesla executives also said Optimus production costs are trending toward the expected manufacturing cost of Cybercab, a sign the robot is being engineered for volume from the start. The hands remain the toughest piece of the design, a point Musk also made at the X Takeover event earlier this month, as Teslarati covered at the time, and that is where much of the current engineering effort is focused.

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The Starship moon landing number NASA and Elon Musk can’t agree on

Musk disputes NASA estimate of 22 Starship launches for Moon landing, predicting 6 to 8.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX Starship landing on the moon via Grok

Elon Musk is disputing a new NASA safety panel estimate of how many Starship launches it will take to put astronauts on the Moon, saying the real number will be less than half the panel’s figure.

On Thursday, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, flagged the fueling process for SpaceX’s lunar lander as a major risk for Artemis IV, the mission planned to land a crew on the Moon in 2028. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander,” Precourt said, according to Ars Technica. “I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”

Ars Technica’s Eric Berger posted the comment on X, and Musk replied. “That’s way too high,” Musk wrote. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”

The disagreement comes down to a basic problem with sending a ship as large as Starship to the Moon. Starship burns nearly all of its propellant just reaching Earth orbit, so it cannot continue on to the Moon without stopping for a refill. SpaceX’s answer is a gas station in space. First, a Starship that works as a storage tank, called a depot, is launched into orbit. Then a series of tanker Starships launch one at a time, dock with the depot and pump their leftover propellant into it. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander version of Starship launches, docks, fills up and heads for the Moon.

Every tanker trip is its own full rocket launch, which is why the count matters. More launches mean more time, more cost and more chances for something to go wrong before astronauts ever leave Earth. Berger estimated that even if SpaceX reaches twice weekly Starship launches by the end of 2027, filling a depot at the panel’s number would still take roughly three months.

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How many tankers are needed depends mostly on how much propellant each one can carry to orbit and how much is lost along the way. Starship’s fuel and oxygen are stored at extremely cold temperatures, and some of it slowly boils off while waiting in orbit. More is lost in each transfer. NASA appears to be working from what Starship can lift today, while Musk’s range assumes a more capable rocket.

Musk has pushed back on higher counts before. In 2021, after a government document suggested 16 launches, he called that “extremely unlikely” and said eight tankers would be the most required.

Much of the answer depends on hardware SpaceX has not finished flying. As Teslarati noted earlier this year, the company plans to carry out the refueling process with its upgraded V3 Starship, and Precourt described Artemis IV as carrying “a large number of firsts.” He also praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s team for working to clear obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its first mission.

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Tesla’s secretive “Project Crystal Sun” gets a big green light in Texas

Fort Bend County approved four incentive agreements Thursday for Tesla’s proposed $10.1 billion solar factory.

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Elon Musk stands in profile against a clear blue sky, with a bright overhead sun shining above a vast landscape of Tesla solar panels stretching to the horizon, and a smaller Texas flag flying on a pole to his right.

Fort Bend County commissioners on Thursday approved a package of tax incentives for Tesla’s proposed $10.1 billion solar cell factory near Needville, Texas, giving the company one of the last local approvals it needs before it decides where to build. All four Tesla agreements passed 4 to 0.

The votes covered a property tax abatement inside Reinvestment Zone No. 34, a Chapter 381 economic development agreement, a foreign trade zone non-objection paired with payments in lieu of certain taxes, and a separate payment in lieu of taxes “true up” agreement, according to agenda notes from the Fort Bend Commissioners Court meeting.

The project, known internally as “Project Crystal Sun,” would make solar cells and finished modules on roughly 3,000 acres near FM 762 and FM 1994, south of the Brazos River. As Teslarati reported when the filing first surfaced in August, Tesla’s application under the state’s JETI Act splits the investment into $1.5 billion in real property and $8.6 billion in equipment, with 9,712 permanent jobs projected by 2033 and commercial operations targeted for the first quarter of 2029. The plant would handle the full chain from ingot and wafer production through cell testing.

Inside Tesla’s secretive $10 Billion “Project Crystal Sun” filing

Thursday’s approval does not lock in the site. Tesla has told the Texas Comptroller it is still weighing other locations, and site selection adviser David Dennison told Lamar Consolidated ISD trustees in September that the race had narrowed to Fort Bend and one out of state rival with a “very compelling package,” according to the Houston Chronicle. Tesla hopes to decide before the end of 2026, and the incentives still need sign off from the Comptroller and the Governor’s office.

Local officials have now done nearly everything within their control. Commissioners created the reinvestment zone in an August 24 special meeting, with Interim County Judge Daniel Wong formally withdrawing himself over his engineering firm’s past work with Tesla. Lamar CISD trustees voted 7 to 0 on September 15 to advance a JETI agreement that would tax Tesla’s qualifying property at 50 percent of its value for maintenance and operations from 2029 through 2038.

The plant lines up with a target Elon Musk set on Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call in January, when he said the company would “work toward getting 100 GW a year of solar cell production, integrating across the entire supply chain from raw materials all the way to finished solar panels.” In March, Tesla was reported to be negotiating a $2.9 billion purchase of Chinese solar manufacturing equipment bound for Texas. The Houston area already hosts Tesla’s Megafactory in Brookshire, where Megapack 3 production has started. Tesla said on its Q3 call that Megapack supply for 2027 is nearly sold out, and Musk wrote on X Thursday that the company is “increasing production of Megapacks as much as possible,” as demand from data centers climbs.

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