News
SpaceX sets new Falcon 9 Block 5 reusability milestones for second half of 2019
Speaking at 2019’s Asia-Pacific Satellite (APSAT) Conference, SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Jonathan Hofeller – squeezed into a sea of breaking-news updates – announced that the company plans to launch the same Falcon 9 Block 5 booster for the fifth (or sixth) time by the end of 2019.
Just an add-on at the end of a number of updates focused on SpaceX’s next-generation Starship/Super Heavy rocket, the phrasing reported by SpaceNews.com technically means that there are plans for a Falcon 9 booster to launch for the sixth time in the second half of 2019. The demonstration of such an extreme level of operational reusability barely 18 months after Falcon 9 Block 5’s debut would make it clear that SpaceX’s latest Falcon upgrade has been a resounding success. In line with those positive signs, Hofeller also noted that SpaceX is already starting to transfer the fruits of those labors to its customers by permanently lowering the base price of Falcon 9 launch contracts.
Block 5 off to a spectacular start
First reported on by SpaceNews’ Caleb Henry, one of a few spaceflight journalists able to attend 2019’s Jakarta, Indonesia-based APSAT conference, details about the near-term future of Falcon 9 Block 5 reusability milestones were effectively tacked on at the end of much higher-profile breaking-news tidbits. Although wildly ambitious Starship goals led headlines (stay tuned for Teslarati’s own analysis later this week), the fact remains that ambitious development goals are inherently tenuous and likely to slip, particularly when the subject is large-scale, fully-reusable launch vehicles developed from a nearly blank slate.
What is not up for debate, however, is the fact that SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Block 5 upgrade is already flying routinely and reliably. After a successful debut in May 2018, Block 5 took over all SpaceX launches less than two months later. Since then, a total of 12 freshly-built Block 5 boosters have supported 16 Falcon 9 and 2 Falcon Heavy launches, ten – more than half – of which involved flight-proven boosters. According to official statements made recently by SpaceX executives, Block 5 boosters are expected to support an additional 12-19* launches in the second half of 2019.
*Derived by stacking “2-6 dedicated Starlink launches” and SpaceX’s 2019 target of 18-21 non–Starlink launches
Tied directly to claims that the same Falcon 9 Block 5 booster will launch for the fifth or sixth time by the end of 2019, SpaceX already has three Falcon 9 boosters that have each completed a trio of launches, as well as an additional five with either one or two launches under their belts. Pictured at the top of the article, all three thrice-flown Falcon 9 boosters – B1046, B1048, and B1049 – could arguably be selected to become the next pathfinder as SpaceX prepares to put boosters through their fourth launches and beyond.
Rumored to be assigned to Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort (IFA) test prior to a major capsule anomaly on April 20th, B1046 could be off the manifest if SpaceX is confident that said IFA test can still be performed within the next several months. It’s currently unclear if that is a viable option for SpaceX’s Crew Dragon schedule, likely to remain uncertain until the failure investigation is fully completed and any necessary design/hardware/software fixes have been implemented. B1046 completed its third launch in December 2018 (a full six months ago), followed by B1048 in February 2019 and B1049 in May 2019. Although the “unknown territory” aspect of Block 5 reuse milestones is becoming less noteworthy, SpaceX is still likely to treat B104X’s fourth launch as a pathfinder, requiring extra time to dot I’s and cross T’s. With B1046 and B1048 potentially ready to go, that milestone could come any time now.
SpaceX customers already reaping financial benefits
Meanwhile, although certain heads-in-sand competitors continue to act and claim otherwise, SpaceX has reportedly normalized earlier prices for customers flying on flight-proven milestone missions. Speaking at APSAT, SpaceX’s Jonathan Hofeller indicated that that pricing is now the company’s “normal pricing”, pushing Falcon 9’s base price as low as ~$50M according to comments CEO Elon Musk made about a year ago. Two years prior to those comments and about six months prior to SpaceX’s first-ever booster reuse, COO and President Gwynne Shotwell reported that the company was offering discounts of ~10% for customers willing to contract launches on flight-proven Falcon 9 boosters.
In other words, SpaceX has cut Falcon 9’s base launch costs by anywhere from 10-20% over the last three years, a period in which the Falcon 9 V1.2 Full Thrust rocket’s capabilities were also dramatically upgraded from Block 1 (debut: December 2015) through Block 5 (debut: May 2018). Speaking during a press conference focused on Falcon 9 Block 5’s launch debut, CEO Elon Musk estimated that SpaceX has spent more than $1 billion to develop Falcon 9 reusability, while he previously estimated Falcon Heavy’s development costs to be well north of ~$500M. Musk and other execs have previously confirmed that SpaceX means to recoup some or all of that investment, indicating that the current margins of Falcon 9 launch contracts must be extremely favorable.
SpaceX has a healthy commercial manifest and will need to support dozens to hundreds of its own dedicated Starlink launches in order to orbit an operational and profitable constellation.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
