A number of Wall Street analysts have shared their predictions for Tesla’s 2025 sales target. Most Wall Street bets have grim forecasts for Tesla’s performance this year.
According to analyst forecasts gathered by FactSet, Tesla is predicted to sell 2.07 million vehicles in 2025, up by 16% compared to its 2024 sales figures. For comparison, Tesla delivered 1.7 million vehicles last year, slightly below the 1.8 million cars it delivered in 2023.
Based on analyst predictions, there are four main reasons Wall Street has a pessimistic outlook for Tesla’s sales in 2025.
Trump Ends US EV Incentives
First, analysts argue that Trump’s promise to roll back policies that boosted electric vehicle (EVs) sales in the United States could affect Tesla.
“Trump 2.0 opposition to EV incentives has hit 2025 volume expectations,” noted Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy estimated that two-thirds of Tesla’s US sales benefit from incentives. However, the Financial Times noted that Trump’s changes to EV subsidies in the US would likely take effect by 2026. Levy predicts that Tesla will see a boost in sales in the second half of 2025 from buyers who want to benefit from the subsidies.
However, a few Tesla investors and supporters have argued that the company doesn’t need incentives to sell EVs. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has long argued that there should be no incentives to boost EV sales.
Competition from China
Chinese EV companies have become an increasing threat to markets in a few countries. With Trump ending EV sales, Chinese car importers are expected to gain a price advantage.
EVs produced in China tend to be priced lower and more affordable in other markets. Europe, Canada, and other countries have implemented subsidies on Chinese EV imports to even the playing field for domestic car manufacturers.
Besides price, Chinese EVs offer better technology, giving them an edge against competitors. Tesla’s technology can meet eye-to-eye with Chinese EVs, which may outweigh any price differences.
Elon Musk and Trump’s Relationship
Analysts also believe that Trump’s trade policy might affect Tesla’s 2025 sales forecast, given Elon Musk’s close ties to the current President of the United States.
Besides Musk’s proximity to Trump, he has also become more vocal about British, Italian, and German politics. Ginny Buckley from Electryfing.com noted that Musk’s recent political zeal might turn some people off and affect Tesla sales.
“Tesla was a market leader, and still is in many ways, but people are getting turned off,” Buckley said.
Tesla’s Car Fleet
Tesla analysts also argue that the company’s vehicle offerings are starting to get stale. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas thinks excitement for the Cybertruck will drop this year. However, the new Tesla Model Y may reinvigorate the company’s lineup.
The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.

Elon Musk
Tesla bull Wedbush responds to Q1 deliveries: ‘A disaster on every metric’

Tesla bull Wedbush has responded to the company’s lackluster Q1 delivery figures, which were released on Wednesday morning in a new note from analyst Dan Ives.
Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of the year, a far cry from the Wall Street estimate of 352,000 and whisper numbers of roughly 350,000. At first glance, it seems to be a disaster, but Tesla said it lost “several weeks of production” in Q1 due to the ramp of the new Model Y at all four of its vehicle production factories.
This could be part of the reason that the company experienced a quarter of this performance, but there are also factors stemming from CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the U.S. government, which has created some pushback in various markets.
It’s tough to say how much of each issue caused this type of quarter, but Ives wrote in a note to investors that Wedbush could not look at this “with rose-colored glasses,” as the performance “was a disaster on every metric.”
Ives believes it is time for Musk to make a move:
“The Street and us knew a bad 1Q was coming but this was even worse than expected. The time has come for Musk….it’s a fork in the road moment. The more political he gets with DOGE the more the brand suffers, there is no debate. This quarter was an example of the damage Musk is causing Tesla. This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead.”
Interestingly, the stock dropped over 5 percent after the delivery report. It quickly rebounded 8 percent and is currently up over 5 percent on the day after a report from Politico stated that Musk and President Donald Trump have discussed the CEO stepping back from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Based on that, it seems that investors were looking for Musk to step back from his government duties and show more public attention to Tesla. Realistically, we do not know how much of his time is being devoted to Tesla and its EV initiative. However, it seems investors were ready to hear something along the lines of Musk being more involved and speaking openly about Tesla and its projects.
It’s not all bad. Ives still recognizes Tesla’s prowess with the rollout of robotaxi and Full Self-Driving and how much impact it could have moving forward:
“Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern-day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US and globally with the launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin kicking off the autonomous era at Tesla that we value at $1 trillion alone on a sum-of-the-parts valuation…”
With that being said, he also wants Musk to balance responsibilities with DOGE and Tesla:
“BUT…Musk needs to stop this political firestorm and balance being CEO of Tesla with DOGE. The future is so bright but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now and its primarily self-inflected. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term Tesla story but Musk needs to get his act together or else unfortunately darker times are ahead for Tesla.”
Tesla shares are trading at $283.01, up 5.42% at 1:57 p.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) shares date for “Company Update” and Q1 2025 earnings call
Tesla seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has announced the date for its upcoming first quarter 2025 earnings call.
Interestingly enough, the company seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.
Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings Call Date
As shared by Tesla in its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, the company would be holding its first-quarter earnings call on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Similar to past earnings calls, the event will be livestreamed. An archived version of the session would also be shared on the company’s website.
Prior to the earnings call, Tesla will be releasing its Q1 2025 Update Letter. The Q1 2025 Update Letter will be released after markets close on April 22.
A Company Update
Tesla enthusiasts and TSLA bulls have observed that the electric vehicle maker adjusted its wording a bit in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. As could be seen in the release, Tesla noted that it would also be holding a “Company Update” on April 22. This is the first time that such an event has been referenced by the electric vehicle maker with its quarterly earnings call.
“In addition to posting first quarter results, Tesla management will hold a live company update and question and answer webcast that day,” Tesla wrote in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. Tesla also referenced a “Company Update” in a post on its official X account.
Expectations are high that Tesla will discuss some of its highly anticipated projects during its Company Update. These may include, among other things, new affordable vehicles that were mentioned in the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Update Letter.
“Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up,” Tesla wrote.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) reports 336,681 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its first quarter 2025 vehicle delivery and production report.
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.
Q1 2025 Deliveries
In the first quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 336,681 vehicles globally. This is comprised of 323,800 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 12,881 units of Tesla’s other models.
In comparison, Tesla’s company-compiled consensus indicated that analysts were expecting 377,592 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025. FactSet estimates were even more optimistic, with analysts expecting vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in the first quarter.
Q1 2025 Production
Tesla produced a total of 362,615 vehicles in the first quarter across its factories globally. From this number, a total of 345,454 units were comprised of the Model 3 and Model Y, and 17,161 were comprised of the company’s other models.
In its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, Tesla noted that the changeover of its Model Y lines across Gigafactory Texas, Fremont Factory, Gigafactory Shanghai, and Gigafactory Berlin, led to the loss of several weeks’ worth of production in the quarter. The vehicle, however, is now being ramped.
TSLA Reaction
While Tesla missed analysts’ expectations, investors do not seem to be too disappointed. As per writing, TSLA stock is just down 1.87% at $263.43 per share.
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