Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry forecasted that Tesla is slated for a “Super Record Quarter” this year. Based on observations from the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas, the TSLA analyst estimated that Tesla would deliver more than 500,000 units in Q4 2022.
Chowdhry’s Fremont Factory Observations
Chowdhry visited Tesla’s Fremont Factory in California, making a few key observations that led to his 500k+ estimate for the fourth quarter. The analyst’s statements were similar to Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas’ comments after visiting the Fremont Factory.
Chowdhry observed Tesla employees’ dedication to their work, noting that their motivation was unparalleled in the car industry. He added that Tesla employees worked throughout Labor Day Weekend. Similarly, Gianarikas was “mesmerized by the factory’s chaotic symphony and employee morale.”
The TSLA analysts also highlighted that the Fremont Factory’s production timeframe—the time it takes for the vehicle to reach shipping trucks—has become at least 10% more efficient compared to Q2 2022. Plus, he noted that Model S Plaid production and deliveries have significantly ramped.
As of this writing, delivery estimates for the Model S Plaid are between October to November 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the Model S Plaid’s delivery estimate was 2-6 weeks. By the end of the first quarter, delivery estimates were between June to July 2022.
Chowdhry on Tesla Giga Texas
The analyst observed that Elon Musk slept in Gigafactory Texas for about three nights in August, hinting at some major work happening in Tesla’s new HQ. Giga Texas has ramped production recently.
He also noted that multiple delivery trucks filled with Model Y units started leaving Giga Texas on September 1, suggesting that Austin-made Model Y vehicles will begin rolling out to more customers soon.
Chowdhry’s Q4 2022 Delivery Estimates
- The Fremont Factory = 145,000
- Giga Shanghai = 246,000
- Giga Berlin = 60,000
- Giga Texas = 60,000
- TOTAL: 511,000 units
Tesla reported producing 305,407 units for the first quarter and delivering 310,048 vehicles. The company’s production and delivery numbers decreased in Q2 2022 partly due to Covid shutdowns and restrictions in Giga Shanghai. Tesla produced 258,580 units in the second quarter and delivered 254,695 cars.
Tesla China temporarily shut down its Model Y and Model 3 assembly lines from mid-July to early August to install upgrades. The Model Y and Model 3 assembly line upgrades are expected to significantly increase Giga Shanghai’s output. Recently, the CPCA’s Secretary-General Cui Dongshu forecasted that Giga Shanghai would report 77,000 unit sales for August.
As for Giga Berlin, it has already reached a production output of 1,000 units per week. It is currently aiming to produce 2,000 vehicles per week. In August, Tesla Germany switched to a two-shift system after employing around 5,000 workers in Grünheide.
In total, Tesla has delivered 564,743 units in 2022 as of the second quarter. The EV manufacturer wants to grow 50%+ every year, and it seems on track for 2022.
Contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.
News
Tesla gives its biggest hint that Full Self-Driving in Europe is imminent
Tesla has given its biggest hint that Full Self-Driving in Europe is imminent, as a new feature seems to show that the company is preparing for frequent border crossings.
Tesla owner and influencer BLKMDL3, also known as Zack, recently took his Tesla to the border of California and Mexico at Tijuana, and at the international crossing, Full Self-Driving showed an interesting message: “Upcoming country border — FSD (Supervised) will become unavailable.”
FSD now shows a new message when approaching an international border crossing.
Stayed engaged the whole way as we crossed the border and worked great in Mexico! pic.twitter.com/bDzyLnyq0g
— Zack (@BLKMDL3) January 26, 2026
Due to regulatory approvals, once a Tesla operating on Full Self-Driving enters a new country, it is required to comply with the laws and regulations that are applicable to that territory. Even if legal, it seems Tesla will shut off FSD temporarily, confirming it is in a location where operation is approved.
This is something that will be extremely important in Europe, as crossing borders there is like crossing states in the U.S.; it’s pretty frequent compared to life in America, Canada, and Mexico.
Tesla has been working to get FSD approved in Europe for several years, and it has been getting close to being able to offer it to owners on the continent. However, it is still working through a lot of the red tape that is necessary for European regulators to approve use of the system on their continent.
This feature seems to be one that would be extremely useful in Europe, considering the fact that crossing borders into other countries is much more frequent than here in the U.S., and would cater to an area where approvals would differ.
Tesla has been testing FSD in Spain, France, England, and other European countries, and plans to continue expanding this effort. European owners have been fighting for a very long time to utilize the functionality, but the red tape has been the biggest bottleneck in the process.
Tesla Europe builds momentum with expanding FSD demos and regional launches
Tesla operates Full Self-Driving in the United States, China, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship V3 gets launch date update from Elon Musk
The first flight of Starship Version 3 and its new Raptor V3 engines could happen as early as March.
Elon Musk has announced that SpaceX’s next Starship launch, Flight 12, is expected in about six weeks. This suggests that the first flight of Starship Version 3 and its new Raptor V3 engines could happen as early as March.
In a post on X, Elon Musk stated that the next Starship launch is in six weeks. He accompanied his announcement with a photo that seemed to have been taken when Starship’s upper stage was just about to separate from the Super Heavy Booster. Musk did not state whether SpaceX will attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster during the upcoming flight.
The upcoming flight will mark the debut of Starship V3. The upgraded design includes the new Raptor V3 engine, which is expected to have nearly twice the thrust of the original Raptor 1, at a fraction of the cost and with significantly reduced weight. The Starship V3 platform is also expected to be optimized for manufacturability.
The Starship V3 Flight 12 launch timeline comes as SpaceX pursues an aggressive development cadence for the fully reusable launch system. Previous iterations of Starship have racked up a mixed but notable string of test flights, including multiple integrated flight tests in 2025.
Interestingly enough, SpaceX has teased an aggressive timeframe for Starship V3’s first flight. Way back in late November, SpaceX noted on X that it will be aiming to launch Starship V3’s maiden flight in the first quarter of 2026. This was despite setbacks like a structural anomaly on the first V3 booster during ground testing.
“Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026,” the company wrote in its post on X.
News
Tesla China rolls out Model 3 insurance subsidy through February
Eligible customers purchasing a Model 3 by February 28 can receive an insurance subsidy worth RMB 8,000 (about $1,150).
Tesla has rolled out a new insurance subsidy for Model 3 buyers in China, adding another incentive as the automaker steps up promotions in the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
Eligible customers purchasing a Model 3 by February 28 can receive an insurance subsidy worth RMB 8,000 (about $1,150).
A limited-time subsidy
The insurance subsidy, which was announced by Tesla China on Weibo, applies to the Model 3 RWD, Long Range RWD, and Long Range AWD variants. Tesla stated that the offer is available to buyers who complete their purchase on or before February 28, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The starting prices for these variants are RMB 235,500, RMB 259,500, and RMB 285,500, respectively.
The Tesla Model 3 Performance, which starts at RMB 339,500, is excluded from the subsidy. The company has previously used insurance incentives at the beginning of the year to address softer seasonal demand in China’s auto market. The program is typically phased out as sales conditions stabilize over the year.
China’s electric vehicle market
The insurance subsidy followed Tesla’s launch of a 7-year low-interest financing plan in China on January 6, which is aimed at improving vehicle affordability amid changing policy conditions. After Tesla introduced the financing program, several automakers, such as Xiaomi, Li Auto, Xpeng, and Voyah, introduced similar long-term financing options.
China’s electric vehicle market has faced additional headwinds entering 2026. Buyers of new energy vehicles are now subject to a 5% purchase tax, compared with the previous full exemption. At the same time, vehicle trade-in subsidies in several cities are expected to expire in mid-November.
Tesla’s overall sales in China declined in 2025, with deliveries totaling 625,698 vehicles, down 4.78% year-over-year. Model 3 deliveries increased 13.33% to 200,361 units, while Model Y deliveries, which were hampered by the changeover to the new Model Y in the first quarter, fell 11.45% to 425,337 units.