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Tesla estimated to deliver 500k+ units by Q4 2022: Global Equities Research

(Credit: Tesla)

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Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry forecasted that Tesla is slated for a “Super Record Quarter” this year. Based on observations from the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas, the TSLA analyst estimated that Tesla would deliver more than 500,000 units in Q4 2022. 

Chowdhry’s Fremont Factory Observations

Chowdhry visited Tesla’s Fremont Factory in California, making a few key observations that led to his 500k+ estimate for the fourth quarter. The analyst’s statements were similar to Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas’ comments after visiting the Fremont Factory.

Chowdhry observed Tesla employees’ dedication to their work, noting that their motivation was unparalleled in the car industry. He added that Tesla employees worked throughout Labor Day Weekend. Similarly, Gianarikas was “mesmerized by the factory’s chaotic symphony and employee morale.” 

The TSLA analysts also highlighted that the Fremont Factory’s production timeframe—the time it takes for the vehicle to reach shipping trucks—has become at least 10% more efficient compared to Q2 2022. Plus, he noted that Model S Plaid production and deliveries have significantly ramped.  

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As of this writing, delivery estimates for the Model S Plaid are between October to November 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the Model S Plaid’s delivery estimate was 2-6 weeks. By the end of the first quarter, delivery estimates were between June to July 2022. 

Chowdhry on Tesla Giga Texas

The analyst observed that Elon Musk slept in Gigafactory Texas for about three nights in August, hinting at some major work happening in Tesla’s new HQ. Giga Texas has ramped production recently. 

He also noted that multiple delivery trucks filled with Model Y units started leaving Giga Texas on September 1, suggesting that Austin-made Model Y vehicles will begin rolling out to more customers soon. 

Chowdhry’s Q4 2022 Delivery Estimates

  • The Fremont Factory = 145,000
  • Giga Shanghai = 246,000
  • Giga Berlin = 60,000
  • Giga Texas = 60,000
  • TOTAL: 511,000 units

Tesla reported producing 305,407 units for the first quarter and delivering 310,048 vehicles. The company’s production and delivery numbers decreased in Q2 2022 partly due to Covid shutdowns and restrictions in Giga Shanghai. Tesla produced 258,580 units in the second quarter and delivered 254,695 cars. 

Tesla China temporarily shut down its Model Y and Model 3 assembly lines from mid-July to early August to install upgrades. The Model Y and Model 3 assembly line upgrades are expected to significantly increase Giga Shanghai’s output. Recently, the CPCA’s Secretary-General Cui Dongshu forecasted that Giga Shanghai would report 77,000 unit sales for August

As for Giga Berlin, it has already reached a production output of 1,000 units per week. It is currently aiming to produce 2,000 vehicles per week. In August, Tesla Germany switched to a two-shift system after employing around 5,000 workers in Grünheide. 

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In total, Tesla has delivered 564,743 units in 2022 as of the second quarter. The EV manufacturer wants to grow 50%+ every year, and it seems on track for 2022.

Contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101

Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Elon Musk

Texas township wants The Boring Company to build it a Loop system

The township’s board unanimously approved an application to The Boring Company’s “Tunnel Vision Challenge.”

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Credit: The Boring Company

The Woodlands Township, Texas, has formally entered The Boring Company’s tunneling sweepstakes. 

The township’s board unanimously approved an application to The Boring Company’s “Tunnel Vision Challenge,” which offers up to one mile of tunnel construction at no cost to a selected community.

The Woodlands’ proposal, dubbed “The Current,” features two parallel 12-foot-diameter tunnels beneath the Town Center corridor near The Waterway. Teslas would shuttle passengers between Waterway Square, Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion, Town Green Park and nearby hotels during concerts and large-scale events, as noted in a Chron report.

Township officials framed the tunnel as a solution for the township’s traffic congestion issues. The Pavilion alone hosts more than 60 shows each year and can accommodate crowds of up to 16,500, often straining Lake Robbins Drive and surrounding intersections.

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“We know we have traffic impacts and pedestrian movement challenges, especially in the Town Center area,” Chris Nunes, chief operating officer of The Woodlands Township, stated during the meeting.

“The Current” mirrors the Loop system operating beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center, where Tesla vehicles transport passengers through underground tunnels between venues and resorts.

The Boring Company issued its request for proposals (RFP) in mid-January, inviting cities and districts to pitch local uses for its tunneling technology. The Woodlands must submit its application by Feb. 23, though no timeline has been provided for when a winning community will be announced.

Nunes confirmed that the board has authorized a submission for “The Current’s” proposal, though he emphasized that the project is still in its preliminary stages.

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“The Woodlands Township Board of Directors has authorized staff to submit an application to The Boring Company, which has issued an RFP for communities interested in leveraging their technology to address community challenges,” he said in a statement. 

“The Board believes that an underground tunnel would provide a safe and efficient means to transport people to and from various high-use community amenities in our Town Center.”

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Tesla Model Y wins 2026 Drive Car of the Year award in Australia

The Model Y is already Australia’s best-selling EV in 2025 and the tenth best-selling vehicle overall.

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Credit: Tesla

The Tesla Model Y has been named 2026 Drive Car of the Year overall winner, taking the top honor after being judged as the vehicle that “moves the game forward the most for Australian new car buyers.” 

The Model Y is already Australia’s best-selling EV in 2025 and the tenth best-selling vehicle overall, but the vehicle’s Juniper update strengthened its case with new ownership benefits and expanded software capability.

Drive’s overall award compares category winners and looks at which model most significantly advances the local new car market. In 2026, judges pointed to the Model Y’s five-year warranty and the availability of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) as a monthly subscription as key differentiators.

Priced from AU$58,900 before on-road costs, the all-electric crossover SUV offers a lot of value compared to similarly sized petrol and hybrid rivals. The ability to access Tesla’s Supercharger network across Australia also reduces friction for buyers moving to EV ownership.

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Owners can add FSD (Supervised) for AU$149 per month. While it still requires driver oversight, the system expands the vehicle’s advanced driver-assistance capabilities and reflects Tesla’s software-first approach.

“The default choice for a reason. The Tesla Model Y makes the transition to electric both effortless and rewarding,” Drive wrote.

The 2025 Model Y facelift also sharpened the vehicle’s exterior, highlighted by a distinctive rear light bar that gives the crossover SUV a more modern road presence.

Drive described the Model Y as a benchmark for combining practicality, efficiency and technology at an accessible price point. With eligibility for federal Fringe Benefit Tax exemptions through novated leasing, its value proposition has improved for numerous buyers.

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For 2026, the Model Y’s combination of range efficiency, charging access and software capability proved decisive. Ultimately, the award all but cements the Model Y’s position as one of the most influential vehicles in Australia’s evolving new-car market today.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk reiterates rapid Starship V3 timeline with next launch in sight

Musk shared the update in a brief post on X, writing, “Starship flies again next month.”

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Credit: SpaceX/X

Elon Musk has confirmed that Starship will fly again next month, reiterating SpaceX’s aggressive timeline for the first launch of its Starship V3 rocket.

Musk shared the update in a brief post on X, writing, “Starship flies again next month.” The CEO’s post was accompanied by a video of Starship’s Super Heavy booster being successfully caught by a launch tower in Starbase, Texas. 

The timeline is notable. In late January, Musk stated that Starship’s next flight, Flight 12, was expected in about six weeks. This placed the expected mission date sometime in March. That estimate aligned with SpaceX’s earlier statement that Starship’s 12th flight test “remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.”

If the vehicle does indeed fly next month, it would mark the debut of Starship V3, the upgraded platform expected to feature the rocket’s new Raptor V3 engines.

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Raptor V3 is designed to deliver significantly higher thrust than earlier versions while reducing cost and weight. Starship V3 itself is expected to be optimized for manufacturability, a critical step if SpaceX intends to scale production toward frequent launches for Starlink, lunar missions, and eventually Mars.

Starship V3 is widely viewed as the version that transitions the program from experimental testing to true operational scaling. Previous iterations have completed multiple integrated flight tests, with mixed outcomes but steady progress. Expectations are high that SpaceX is now working on Starship’s refinement.

An aggressive launch schedule supports several priorities at once. It advances Starlink’s next-generation satellite deployment, supports NASA’s lunar ambitions under Artemis, and keeps SpaceX on track for its longer-term Moon and Mars objectives.

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