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Tesla estimated to deliver 500k+ units by Q4 2022: Global Equities Research

(Credit: Tesla)

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Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry forecasted that Tesla is slated for a “Super Record Quarter” this year. Based on observations from the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas, the TSLA analyst estimated that Tesla would deliver more than 500,000 units in Q4 2022. 

Chowdhry’s Fremont Factory Observations

Chowdhry visited Tesla’s Fremont Factory in California, making a few key observations that led to his 500k+ estimate for the fourth quarter. The analyst’s statements were similar to Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas’ comments after visiting the Fremont Factory.

Chowdhry observed Tesla employees’ dedication to their work, noting that their motivation was unparalleled in the car industry. He added that Tesla employees worked throughout Labor Day Weekend. Similarly, Gianarikas was “mesmerized by the factory’s chaotic symphony and employee morale.” 

The TSLA analysts also highlighted that the Fremont Factory’s production timeframe—the time it takes for the vehicle to reach shipping trucks—has become at least 10% more efficient compared to Q2 2022. Plus, he noted that Model S Plaid production and deliveries have significantly ramped.  

As of this writing, delivery estimates for the Model S Plaid are between October to November 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the Model S Plaid’s delivery estimate was 2-6 weeks. By the end of the first quarter, delivery estimates were between June to July 2022. 

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Chowdhry on Tesla Giga Texas

The analyst observed that Elon Musk slept in Gigafactory Texas for about three nights in August, hinting at some major work happening in Tesla’s new HQ. Giga Texas has ramped production recently. 

He also noted that multiple delivery trucks filled with Model Y units started leaving Giga Texas on September 1, suggesting that Austin-made Model Y vehicles will begin rolling out to more customers soon. 

Chowdhry’s Q4 2022 Delivery Estimates

  • The Fremont Factory = 145,000
  • Giga Shanghai = 246,000
  • Giga Berlin = 60,000
  • Giga Texas = 60,000
  • TOTAL: 511,000 units

Tesla reported producing 305,407 units for the first quarter and delivering 310,048 vehicles. The company’s production and delivery numbers decreased in Q2 2022 partly due to Covid shutdowns and restrictions in Giga Shanghai. Tesla produced 258,580 units in the second quarter and delivered 254,695 cars. 

Tesla China temporarily shut down its Model Y and Model 3 assembly lines from mid-July to early August to install upgrades. The Model Y and Model 3 assembly line upgrades are expected to significantly increase Giga Shanghai’s output. Recently, the CPCA’s Secretary-General Cui Dongshu forecasted that Giga Shanghai would report 77,000 unit sales for August

As for Giga Berlin, it has already reached a production output of 1,000 units per week. It is currently aiming to produce 2,000 vehicles per week. In August, Tesla Germany switched to a two-shift system after employing around 5,000 workers in Grünheide. 

In total, Tesla has delivered 564,743 units in 2022 as of the second quarter. The EV manufacturer wants to grow 50%+ every year, and it seems on track for 2022.

Contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla top exec Tom Zhu highlights Elon Musk’s “prime directive” for FSD

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Credit: Tesla AI/X

Tesla Senior Vice President for Automotive Tom Zhu, a key executive behind the company’s success in China and Giga Texas, recently highlighted the “prime directive” of Full Self-Driving (FSD).

Zhu’s comments emphasize Tesla’s uncompromising focus on safety, which has made the company’s vehicles among the safest on the road.

Echoing Musk’s vision for safe autonomous driving

Zhu’s post quoted Musk’s statement from 2021, where the CEO reportedly stated that FSD must avoid accidents even if the most ridiculous events happened in the middle of the road. Zhu stated that beyond everything, Tesla’s systems like Autopilot and FSD are designed to keep passengers safe.

“Elon said it in 2021: “For self-driving, even if the road is painted completely wrong and a UFO lands in the middle of the road, the car still cannot crash and still needs to do the right thing. The prime directive for the autopilot system is: Don’t crash. That really overrides everything. No matter what the lines say or how the road is done, the thing that needs to happen is minimizing the probability of impact while getting you to your destination conveniently and comfortably,” Zhu stated.

“The prime directive, the absolute priority, is to minimize the probability of injury to yourself or to anyone on the road, to pedestrians, or anything like that. It can’t be dependent on the road markings being correct.”

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Tesla leadership rallies behind global FSD rollout

Tom Zhu, who previously led Tesla China through its record-breaking growth phase, now oversees automotive operations worldwide. He has reportedly become a problem solver for Elon Musk over the years, with previous reports stating that he was brought in to help Giga Texas optimize its vehicle production ramp.

Zhu’s comments may sound ambitious, but FSD has proven that it values safety above all else over the years. This was highlighted recently in an incident in Australia, when a Model Y was hit by what could very well be a meteor. Despite the impact and part of its windshield melting, the vehicle was able to drive safely and keep its passengers safe.

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Elon Musk’s biggest tech rival just canceled his Tesla Roadster

“I really was excited for the car! And I understand delays. But 7.5 years has felt like a long time to wait,” Altman said.

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Tesla Roadster at Tesla Battery Day 2020 Credit: @BLKMDL3 | Twitter

Elon Musk’s biggest tech rival just canceled his reservation for a Tesla Roadster, the supercar the company has been developing for nearly eight years.

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, announced on X on Thursday evening that he canceled his Tesla Roadster reservation, or at least is trying to:

Altman placed his Tesla Roadster reservation with a $50,000 deposit way back on July 11, 2018. However, he recently decided that he had waited long enough and decided to email the company to officially cancel the order.

“Hi, I’d like to cancel my reservation. Could you please refund me the $50k?” Altman emails to reservations@tesla.com.

He then received an immediate response, but not from Tesla. Instead, it was a bounce-back message from Google, stating that the message could not be delivered to the email because it was not active.

Altman then provided a reason for his cancellation, and it was not related to the intense rivalry he had with Elon Musk:

“I really was excited for the car! And I understand delays. But 7.5 years has felt like a long time to wait.”

Altman and Musk have a lengthy history with one another that dates back to 2015, when OpenAI was created. The feud has resulted in lawsuits over breaching founding agreements by prioritizing profits.

Musk has been especially critical in recent years because of Altman’s decision to turn OpenAI into a for-profit business that he says is “built on a lie.”

This year, Musk offered over $97 billion to buy OpenAI, and a judge blocked his request to stop the company from being converted into a for-profit in March.

OpenAI then countersued Musk in April, while xAI, Musk’s company, sued OpenAI for allegedly stealing secrets through poached employees in September.

Elon Musk explains why xAI sued OpenAI over alleged trade secret theft

Regarding the Roadster, Tesla has been developing it for several years and has delayed its release for five consecutive years. The company says it will have a demo of what it has changed since it was unveiled in 2017 later this year, but no date has been set quite yet.

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Neuralink’s first human patient reflects on 21 months with brain implant “Eve”

He credited Neuralink and Elon Musk for giving him “the opportunity to be the first,” as the experience has been life-changing.

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Credit: Neuralink

Nolan Arbaugh, the first person to receive Neuralink’s brain implant, shared his 21-month update this week, reflecting on how far he’s come since his groundbreaking surgery. 

Arbaugh, who became paralyzed after a diving accident, stated that his Neuralink implant, which he fondly calls “Eve,” continues to transform his daily life.

Arbaugh celebrates Neuralink’s progress

In his post on X, Arbaugh revealed that his hands-on involvement with Neuralink has decreased as more participants have joined the program. “The team might call me to test something once in a blue moon,” he wrote, adding that he’s happy to see others experience the technology’s full potential, from operating robotic arms to typing on keyboards with thought alone.

He credited Neuralink and Elon Musk for giving him “the opportunity to be the first,” as the experience has been life-changing. Despite a recent pressure sore that temporarily kept him bedridden, Arbaugh noted that he is still very optimistic, describing his journey as one of resilience, faith, and gratitude. He also teased “big news” coming for his two-year update in early 2026.

Studies and a growing public speaking career 

These days, Arbaugh stated that he is focused on his studies in neuroscience, taking full-semester courses in chemistry, biology, and pre-calculus while earning top grades. He credited “Eve” for making school possible again, as his current academic workload would have been “impossible without Neuralink.” Arbaugh stated that he has also begun building a speaking business after delivering a paid talk at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference.

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“At the beginning of September I attended the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference in Park City, Utah, as a paid speaker. That sentence seemed like an impossibility two years ago. But it’s just the beginning. My business is built, my legal is near complete, I’m surrounding myself with a team of amazing folks, and I plan on speaking once or twice a month in the same fashion beginning as soon as January. 

“Conferences, interviews, podcasts—you name it, and I want to be there spreading the word about how amazing this technology is, the growth it’s experiencing, the possibilities of the future, and how it has so deeply affected my life,” Arbaugh stated.

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