Connect with us
tesla-500k-delivery-estimate-q4-2022 tesla-500k-delivery-estimate-q4-2022

News

Tesla estimated to deliver 500k+ units by Q4 2022: Global Equities Research

(Credit: Tesla)

Published

on

Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry forecasted that Tesla is slated for a “Super Record Quarter” this year. Based on observations from the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas, the TSLA analyst estimated that Tesla would deliver more than 500,000 units in Q4 2022. 

Chowdhry’s Fremont Factory Observations

Chowdhry visited Tesla’s Fremont Factory in California, making a few key observations that led to his 500k+ estimate for the fourth quarter. The analyst’s statements were similar to Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas’ comments after visiting the Fremont Factory.

Chowdhry observed Tesla employees’ dedication to their work, noting that their motivation was unparalleled in the car industry. He added that Tesla employees worked throughout Labor Day Weekend. Similarly, Gianarikas was “mesmerized by the factory’s chaotic symphony and employee morale.” 

The TSLA analysts also highlighted that the Fremont Factory’s production timeframe—the time it takes for the vehicle to reach shipping trucks—has become at least 10% more efficient compared to Q2 2022. Plus, he noted that Model S Plaid production and deliveries have significantly ramped.  

As of this writing, delivery estimates for the Model S Plaid are between October to November 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the Model S Plaid’s delivery estimate was 2-6 weeks. By the end of the first quarter, delivery estimates were between June to July 2022. 

Advertisement

Chowdhry on Tesla Giga Texas

The analyst observed that Elon Musk slept in Gigafactory Texas for about three nights in August, hinting at some major work happening in Tesla’s new HQ. Giga Texas has ramped production recently. 

He also noted that multiple delivery trucks filled with Model Y units started leaving Giga Texas on September 1, suggesting that Austin-made Model Y vehicles will begin rolling out to more customers soon. 

Chowdhry’s Q4 2022 Delivery Estimates

  • The Fremont Factory = 145,000
  • Giga Shanghai = 246,000
  • Giga Berlin = 60,000
  • Giga Texas = 60,000
  • TOTAL: 511,000 units

Tesla reported producing 305,407 units for the first quarter and delivering 310,048 vehicles. The company’s production and delivery numbers decreased in Q2 2022 partly due to Covid shutdowns and restrictions in Giga Shanghai. Tesla produced 258,580 units in the second quarter and delivered 254,695 cars. 

Tesla China temporarily shut down its Model Y and Model 3 assembly lines from mid-July to early August to install upgrades. The Model Y and Model 3 assembly line upgrades are expected to significantly increase Giga Shanghai’s output. Recently, the CPCA’s Secretary-General Cui Dongshu forecasted that Giga Shanghai would report 77,000 unit sales for August

As for Giga Berlin, it has already reached a production output of 1,000 units per week. It is currently aiming to produce 2,000 vehicles per week. In August, Tesla Germany switched to a two-shift system after employing around 5,000 workers in Grünheide. 

In total, Tesla has delivered 564,743 units in 2022 as of the second quarter. The EV manufacturer wants to grow 50%+ every year, and it seems on track for 2022.

Contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101

Advertisement

Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

Advertisement
Comments

News

Tesla Model Y L’s impressive specs surface in China’s recent MIIT filing

The Tesla Model Y L is expected to launch later this year.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla

The specs of the upcoming Tesla Model Y L has appeared in new Chinese regulatory filings, revealing key specifications including a six-seat layout and an extended range of up to 751 kilometers. The variant is expected to launch later this year alongside a new long-range Model 3 variant rated at 830 kilometers.

The updates were listed on the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) latest batch of new energy vehicle models that are eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions.

Model Y L to debut with larger battery, six-seat layout

Listed under the model code TSL6500BEVBA0, the Model Y L will feature dual motors producing 142 kW at the front and 198 kW at the rear. It will be powered by a 465-kilogram 82.0-kWh lithium-ion battery from LG Energy Solution, with a pack energy density of 176 Wh/kg, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The long-range crossover achieves 751 km on the lenient CLTC cycle, making it Tesla’s highest-range Model Y to date in China despite its curb weight of 2,088 kg.

The “L” designation is believed to refer to the vehicle’s larger size and seating configuration, as the new variant is listed with six seats. It builds on Tesla’s strategy to diversify offerings in the Model Y lineup, which currently includes both RWD and AWD five-seat versions.

Model 3+ breaks record with 830 km CLTC range

Alongside the Model Y L, Tesla China also registered a new rear-wheel-drive Model 3, which was designated with the model code TSL7000BEVBR1. The vehicle boasts either 800 or 830 km of range on the CLTC cycle, depending on its trim. This marks the highest range yet for any Tesla vehicle in China.

The variant will use a 448-kilogram, 78.4-kWh LG-supplied battery with an energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a peak motor output of 225 kW. The vehicle’s curb weight is listed at 1,760 kg. The model was previously identified in filings as “Model 3+,” hinting at a possible tier above the existing long-range variant, which tops out at 753 km CLTC.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Elon Musk explains why Tesla stepped back from Project Dojo

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited people reportedly familiar with the matter.

Published

on

(Credit: Tesla)

Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla is stepping back from its Dojo supercomputer initiative and focusing instead on the company’s in-house AI5 and AI6 chips. 

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited people reportedly familiar with the matter.

Project Dojo Ends

As per Bloomberg, Peter Bannon, who led Project Dojo, will be departing Tesla following Elon Musk’s decision to shut down the initiative. The publication claimed that Tesla’s Project Dojo team has lost about 20 members recently, and the remaining members of the initiative would be reassigned to other data center and compute projects within Tesla. 

Dojo was expected to help Tesla train its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems. With this change, Tesla will reportedly be increasing its reliance on external partners for its training hardware. These partners reportedly include Nvidia, AMD, and Samsung, among other companies.

Credit: Elon Musk/X

Musk Explains Dojo Shutdown

In a series of posts on X, Elon Musk explained that it doesn’t make much sense for Tesla to divide its resources to scale two different chip designs. And since the company is putting in a lot of effort in its AI5 and AI6 chips–which would be used not for training but in actual products like Optimus and the Cybercab–it was time for Project Dojo to take a bow.

“It doesn’t make sense for Tesla to divide its resources and scale two quite different AI chip designs. The Tesla AI5, AI6 and subsequent chips will be excellent for inference and at least pretty good for training. All effort is focused on that.

Advertisement

“In a supercomputer cluster, it would make sense to put many AI5/AI6 chips on a board, whether for inference or training, simply to reduce network cabling complexity & cost by a few orders of magnitude. One could call that Dojo 3, I suppose. The difference in real-world performance between AI4 and AI5 is far more than any chip version I’ve ever heard of by a lot. It’s real good,” Musk wrote in his post.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla creates clever solution to simplify and improve its Service

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

Published

on

tesla service
Credit: Tesla

Tesla has created a clever solution to simplify and improve its Service. Tesla performs most of the services that are needed on its vehicles at its company-owned Service Centers.

However, service has been a weak point of the company, as some regions have fewer Service Centers than others. This can cause long wait times for Tesla owners in some parts of the country.

There are also instances where customers do not agree with what Tesla is saying about their vehicle. In fact, one instance that revealed this new change Tesla is making to its Service was precisely that.

One owner posted on X that his vehicle’s battery seal had failed after a recall was issued. Tesla insurance and Tesla Service both did not assist, and it took CEO Elon Musk stepping in to get the issue resolved:

Another owner suggested there should be a more streamlined communications process between the customer and the Service Center, a solution that has been missing.

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

Elon Musk wants Tesla Service to fix two-thirds of cars in the same day

Jegannathan said that Tesla has started to share local and regional leader contact information so customers have the ability to reach out when they have complaints or disagree with warranty claims, changes in estimates, or initial diagnostics.

It is available in a handful of locations already, and Jegannathan said that once abuse guardrails are built, this will expand to all locations:

This would be a major improvement in the Service portion of Tesla’s business. There are common disagreements between Service and customers, specifically when Service’s suggestions don’t align with the customer’s beliefs.

When it comes to things like a warranty claim, these issues are not really up for interpretation. Instead, the repairs should be made. If there is a misunderstanding on Service’s side, a simple message from the customer could have resolved the issue. That’s basically what happened here.

Continue Reading

Trending