Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry forecasted that Tesla is slated for a “Super Record Quarter” this year. Based on observations from the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas, the TSLA analyst estimated that Tesla would deliver more than 500,000 units in Q4 2022.
Chowdhry’s Fremont Factory Observations
Chowdhry visited Tesla’s Fremont Factory in California, making a few key observations that led to his 500k+ estimate for the fourth quarter. The analyst’s statements were similar to Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas’ comments after visiting the Fremont Factory.
Chowdhry observed Tesla employees’ dedication to their work, noting that their motivation was unparalleled in the car industry. He added that Tesla employees worked throughout Labor Day Weekend. Similarly, Gianarikas was “mesmerized by the factory’s chaotic symphony and employee morale.”
The TSLA analysts also highlighted that the Fremont Factory’s production timeframe—the time it takes for the vehicle to reach shipping trucks—has become at least 10% more efficient compared to Q2 2022. Plus, he noted that Model S Plaid production and deliveries have significantly ramped.
As of this writing, delivery estimates for the Model S Plaid are between October to November 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the Model S Plaid’s delivery estimate was 2-6 weeks. By the end of the first quarter, delivery estimates were between June to July 2022.
Chowdhry on Tesla Giga Texas
The analyst observed that Elon Musk slept in Gigafactory Texas for about three nights in August, hinting at some major work happening in Tesla’s new HQ. Giga Texas has ramped production recently.
He also noted that multiple delivery trucks filled with Model Y units started leaving Giga Texas on September 1, suggesting that Austin-made Model Y vehicles will begin rolling out to more customers soon.
Chowdhry’s Q4 2022 Delivery Estimates
- The Fremont Factory = 145,000
- Giga Shanghai = 246,000
- Giga Berlin = 60,000
- Giga Texas = 60,000
- TOTAL: 511,000 units
Tesla reported producing 305,407 units for the first quarter and delivering 310,048 vehicles. The company’s production and delivery numbers decreased in Q2 2022 partly due to Covid shutdowns and restrictions in Giga Shanghai. Tesla produced 258,580 units in the second quarter and delivered 254,695 cars.
Tesla China temporarily shut down its Model Y and Model 3 assembly lines from mid-July to early August to install upgrades. The Model Y and Model 3 assembly line upgrades are expected to significantly increase Giga Shanghai’s output. Recently, the CPCA’s Secretary-General Cui Dongshu forecasted that Giga Shanghai would report 77,000 unit sales for August.
As for Giga Berlin, it has already reached a production output of 1,000 units per week. It is currently aiming to produce 2,000 vehicles per week. In August, Tesla Germany switched to a two-shift system after employing around 5,000 workers in Grünheide.
In total, Tesla has delivered 564,743 units in 2022 as of the second quarter. The EV manufacturer wants to grow 50%+ every year, and it seems on track for 2022.
Contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.
News
Tesla readies its autonomous Cybercab and Robotaxi cleaning service
A Texas permit just confirmed Tesla’s cleaning robot is coming to service its Cybercab and Robotaxi fleet.
A routine Texas building permit may have quietly confirmed that Tesla’s robot vacuum and autonomous cleaning bot for the Robotaxi and Cybercab is coming. A state filing with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, as first discovered by Tesla enthusiast Spencer and posted to X, that project number TABS2025022006, lists the scope of work at Tesla’s Austin Robotaxi hub at 5900 E Ben White Blvd to include a “Cleaning Robot” alongside Supercharger cabinets and an Equipment Inspection System.
Tesla first showed the cleaning robot publicly on January 31, 2025, posting a short video on X with the caption “This robot sucks,” showing a large robotic arm inside a Cybercab cabin switching between attachments to vacuum debris, pick up trash, and wipe down surfaces.
The operational case for this hardware comes down to mathematics. A robotaxi running rides across Austin needs to cycle passengers continuously to generate revenue. Every minute a vehicle sits waiting for a human cleaning crew is a minute it is not earning. A robotic arm that can fully clean a Cybercab cabin between rides in under two minutes removes one of the key bottlenecks in fleet utilization that no autonomous vehicle company has yet solved at scale.
This robot sucks pic.twitter.com/VUmGfCM5B3
— Tesla (@Tesla) January 31, 2025
The 5900 E Ben White Blvd address sits roughly 12 miles southwest of Gigafactory Texas, where Tesla has been mass producing its Cybercab. The Ben White facility is expected to functions as Tesla’s Austin Robotaxi Hub, the physical base of operations where fleet vehicles return between rides to charge, get cleaned, and undergo inspection before being dispatched again – and all autonomously. One can imagine a Cybercab dropping off a passenger, routes itself back to Ben White, pulls into the cleaning station, charges on one of the Supercharger cabinets listed in the same permit, passes the equipment inspection system, and returns to service, all without a human making a single decision.
The sighting activity around both locations has accelerated in parallel with production. By mid-March 2026, Cybercabs were spotted regularly on public roads across Austin and Silicon Valley. Tesla’s Robotaxi operations in Texas has expanded to cover the entire Austin metro area and has spread to Dallas, while autonomous Cybercab employee shuttle runs at Gigafactory Texas are also set to begin soon. What it represents is the physical infrastructure behind a fleet that Tesla intends to run without anyone cleaning, driving, or dispatching it by hand.
SpaceX is preparing for the 13th integrated flight test of its Starship system, with a targeted launch as early as Thursday, July 16. The 90-minute launch window opens at 5:45 p.m. CT from Starbase in South Texas.
This comes roughly seven weeks after Flight 12 on May 22, underscoring the company’s accelerating pace in its rapid development campaign. The mission will use the latest Starship and Super Heavy V3 vehicles equipped with Raptor 3 engines. Booster 20 will attempt a controlled boostback burn, followed by a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, while Ship 40 will follow a suborbital trajectory.
Starship’s thirteenth flight test is preparing to launch as early as Thursday, July 16 → https://t.co/Rp7VwBzpWx pic.twitter.com/jdpFlQUEpF
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) July 11, 2026
Key objectives for Flight 13 will include demonstrating reliable stage separation, engine performance under various conditions, and controlled reentry.
A major milestone for Flight 13 is the first deployment of 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. These satellites feature advanced laser links for inter-satellite communication, deployable solar arrays, and onboard cameras, six of which will capture imagery of Starship’s heat shield during flight.
Several heat shield tiles on Ship 40 will be painted white to serve as imaging targets, while additional experiments test upgraded tiles on aft flaps, modified attachments on the aft skirt, and load-sensing tiles to measure stresses. The upper stage will also attempt a single Raptor engine relight in space before a targeted splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
These tests build directly on lessons from Flight 12, which introduced the V3 configuration but encountered issues including a booster flip anomaly during boostback and an engine-out event on the ship. Hardware and software modifications on Booster 20 and Ship 40 aim to improve engine relight reliability, startup sequencing, and overall robustness.
Next Starship launch aiming for Thursday https://t.co/SajPPd4pdb
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 12, 2026
The short interval between Flights 12 and 13 highlights SpaceX’s iterative approach. Elon Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Starship launches will become “incredibly common” in the coming years.
The company envisions scaling to rates as high as one launch per hour within 4-5 years, potentially enabling thousands of flights annually. Such cadence is essential for Starship’s goals: establishing orbital refueling for lunar and Mars missions, deploying massive satellite constellations, and making life multiplanetary.
With each flight, Starship edges closer to full reusability and operational maturity. Success on July 16 would mark another step toward routine access to space and the ambitious vision of humanity becoming a spacefaring civilization.
Tesla shared a striking video showcasing the decommissioning of the original Model S and Model X assembly line at its Fremont Factory in Northern California. Completed in just 46 days, the teardown involved heavy machinery dismantling concrete pits, removing robotic arms and conveyors, and clearing the space for new production.
The post, captioned “End of an era,” captured both the end of a historic chapter and Tesla’s aggressive pivot toward its next major initiative, Optimus.
End of an era: Decommissioning the original Model S & X assembly line in just 46 days pic.twitter.com/kGEdfhl62h
— Tesla Manufacturing (@gigafactories) July 10, 2026
The decision to retire the Model S and Model X originated during Tesla’s Q4 2025 Earnings Call in late January 2026. CEO Elon Musk announced that production of the company’s flagship sedan and SUV would wind down by the end of Q2 2026, describing it as bringing the programs to an “honorable discharge.”
Custom orders ceased around early April 2026, with the final vehicles rolling off the line in early May. A special signature delivery ceremony on May 20 marked the emotional close for these vehicles, which had defined Tesla’s early success and luxury EV segment since the Model S launch in 2012.
The primary reason for tearing down the lines was to repurpose the valuable factory floor space for high-volume production of Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot. Musk had indicated on Earnings Calls that the Fremont S/X line would be replaced by a dedicated Optimus manufacturing line targeting a capacity of one million units per year.
This move aligns with Tesla’s broader strategic shift from traditional vehicle manufacturing toward robotics and artificial intelligence, leveraging the company’s expertise in autonomy, AI training, and high-volume production.
Optimus, Tesla’s general-purpose humanoid robot, is designed to perform repetitive or dangerous tasks in factories, warehouses, and eventually homes. Powered by Tesla’s AI and Neural Networks, it aims to be a versatile, affordable platform. Production of Optimus Gen 3 is already underway in limited form at Fremont, with full-scale output on the converted line expected to begin in late July or August.
Tesla is targeting rapid scaling, with internal ambitions pointing toward tens or even hundreds of thousands of units annually by the end of 2026.
Longer-term, Tesla is constructing a much larger second-generation Optimus facility at Giga Texas, with potential capacity reaching millions of units per year. The company views Optimus as a transformative product that could eventually surpass its automotive business in scale and value, enabling widespread deployment of useful robots across industries. CEO Elon Musk has even predicted it would be the most popular product of all-time.
As one era closes at Fremont, another is rapidly taking shape.
Tesla readies its autonomous Cybercab and Robotaxi cleaning service
SpaceX reveals Starship Flight 13 launch date
