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Investor's Corner

OPINION: Analysts miss the mark on Tesla following Q3 Delivery Guidance

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This is a preview from our weekly newsletter. Each week I go ‘Beyond the News’ and handcraft a special edition that includes my thoughts on the biggest stories, why it matters, and how it could impact the future.

Tesla is coming off its most successful quarter in company history. The Q3 delivery guidance saw Tesla deliver over 241,000 vehicles for the first time in company history, with production at a slightly lower rate than that. However, despite the bullish outlook for Tesla from a retail investor standpoint, analysts and media continue to miss the mark on the company, believing in their breakdowns that the automaker’s growth story will begin to stagnate. However, Tesla is averting several crises simultaneously, including parts shortages and opening new facilities.

The consistently baffling thing to me as a journalist and reporter that has covered the sector for over two years is that analysts continue to sit on a hill, ready to die on it. Just because they have been outspoken when writing notes regarding their negative outlooks on Tesla stock or deliveries, they are unwilling to admit their wrongs, for the most part. Tesla has continued a growth story that is one of the most impressive in perhaps the long and storied history of the automotive industry.

I’m not an analyst. I did work in finance before I ventured into writing for a career, but I am in no way an analyst or seasoned investor of any kind. However, I do recognize that there are obvious shortcomings in the descriptions of Tesla by some analysts, unwilling to give credit where credit is due. Tesla has been the only car company on Earth that has been able to avert the semiconductor shortage through in-house measures and efforts. Tesla’s software team absolutely killed it with the development and production of microcontrollers that would assist with the company’s efforts to avoid a production stoppage. Yet, despite all of this effort and hard work and dedication by Tesla’s highly talented team of engineers, there is relatively no credit given by analysts apart from Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who was baffled at the company’s ability to avoid the chip shortage.

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Tesla delivers record 241,300 cars in Q3, handily beating consensus estimates

Meanwhile, other automakers like Ford, who have adopted EVs partially with their release of the Mustang Mach-E and eventual releases of the F-150 Lightning and E-Transit van, are experiencing drops in deliveries. Ford had a 23% drop in pickup truck deliveries, despite the F-150 being the most popular truck in the U.S. market. While SUV sales did rise 3.4% compared to Q2, the drop in pickup trucks is evidently a result of the chip shortage, as many manufactured but incomplete pickups sit in lots surrounding the company’s production facilities waiting for chips.

I don’t know this for a fact, but I feel as if mainstream media outlets would be singing the praises of companies like Ford, Chevy, GMC, or Honda if these companies were able to produce chips on their own and avoid the semiconductor issues. I do not necessarily like being accusatory of other media outlets, and I do not like going out of my way to believe that journalists have some kind of inside agenda. I believe all of us have a duty to remain fair and balanced and unbiased. But let’s be honest here, Tesla is not getting the attention or the credit it deserves. The semiconductor shortage is plaguing so many industries, and Tesla is averting it completely, somehow.

Companies are declining while Tesla has already reported eight consecutive profitable quarters, going for its ninth. We will find out if Tesla was profitable in Q3 next week during the Earnings Call on October 20th. However, the ability to conduct such consistent growth through deliveries in somewhat incredible, and I truly believe analysts are doing themselves and their clients a huge disservice by ignoring or avoiding such a tremendous growth story during such a trying time. Many of them will live to regret their decisions, whether it’s paid inside interests or a personal vendetta.

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I think there is a reason many analysts with bullish Tesla outlooks are ranked so highly on TipRanks, while those who continue a bearish outlook are ranked tremendously low.

A big thanks to our long-time supporters and new subscribers! Thank you.

I use this newsletter to share my thoughts on what is going on in the Tesla world. If you want to talk to me directly, you can email me or reach me on Twitter. I don’t bite, be sure to reach out!

-Joey

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

NASA taps SpaceX to launch the telescope that could unlock new worlds

NASA’s Roman Space Telescope heads to orbit this August aboard SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy with massive scientific ambitions.

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SpaceX is set to play a central role in one of NASA’s most anticipated science missions in years. The company’s Falcon Heavy rocket, currently the most powerful operational launch vehicle in the world, will carry the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope into orbit on August 30 from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Roman is now in final preparations inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility, where on June 26 technicians used a crane to lift the observatory into a specialized stand for fueling and pre-launch testing.

Roman is named after Nancy Grace Roman, NASA’s first chief of astronomy, whose career helped shape how the agency approaches space science.

NASA chose SpaceX Falcon Heavy because of Roman’s needs to reach a specific orbit far from Earth, well beyond where a standard Falcon 9 can deliver it. The Falcon Heavy, which first flew in 2018, has since become NASA’s go-to option for missions that need serious muscle without the cost and complexity of older launch systems.

Celebrating SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy Tesla Roadster launch, seven years later (Op-Ed)

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Roman will carry a field of view at least 100 times wider than the Hubble Space Telescope, meaning it can photograph enormous swaths of the universe in a single shot rather than the narrow slices Hubble captures. That difference in scale is significant. While Hubble reshaped our understanding of the cosmos over 30 years, Roman is built to work faster and wider, surveying hundreds of millions of galaxies at once.

One of Roman’s most compelling capabilities is its potential to discover and photograph planets orbiting stars outside our solar system, and with enough precision to directly image planets that would otherwise be lost. That means scientists could study the atmosphere and surface characteristics of distant worlds rather than simply confirming they exist. Combined with Roman’s sweeping field of view, the telescope could detect thousands of exoplanets, and some of those planets may be in habitable zones where liquid water could exist. No telescope currently in operation has this level of power and capability. That capability alone could change what we know about other worlds, and perhaps finally answer the question: are we the only intelligent lifeforms in existence? 

What Roman actually finds once it reaches orbit is an open question, and that is exactly what makes this launch worth watching.

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California snubs Tesla in its newly passed EV incentive that favors Rivian and Lucid

California passed a $135 million EV incentive that rewards Rivian and Lucid while sidelining Tesla

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California just drew a line in the EV incentive sand to put Tesla on the wrong side of it. The state recently passed a $135 million program offering first-time electric vehicle buyers a direct incentive with no application required, but the rules were written in a way that leaves Tesla at a structural disadvantage compared to Rivian and Lucid.

The program caps eligible vehicles at $50,000 for new EVs and $25,000 for used ones. That pricing threshold rules out a significant portion of Tesla’s lineup, though some lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y configurations would still qualify. California-based automakers are exempt from the price cap entirely, regardless of what their vehicles cost. Rivian, headquartered in Irvine, and Lucid, based in the San Francisco Bay Area, both benefit from that exemption. Rivian’s R2 starts at roughly $45,000 but has versions above the cap. Lucid’s Air and Gravity start at $70,990 and $79,990 respectively, well above any threshold a non-California company would face.

California hits Tesla Cybercab and Robotaxi driverless cars with new law

Tesla built its reputation and a significant portion of its early market share in California, where EV adoption has consistently led the nation. The company operates its original factory in Fremont, California, and the state was home to Tesla’s headquarters for most of its existence. That changed in 2021 when Tesla moved its corporate headquarters to Austin, Texas. Since then, the relationship between the company and California Governor Gavin Newsom has been openly adversarial, with Musk and Newsom trading public criticism on multiple occasions.

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California’s EV incentive landscape has shifted repeatedly in recent years, and Tesla has previously lost eligibility for state-level programs as its vehicles exceeded income-adjusted price thresholds. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit, which Tesla models have qualified for and lost depending on policy cycles, is no longer available after it expired without renewal, making state-level programs more meaningful to buyers than they have been in years.

The practical impact for buyers is more nuanced than the headline suggests. California residents purchasing a Tesla under $50,000 for the first time can still access the incentive. But the exemption written for California-based manufacturers is a structural advantage that rewards where a company plants its headquarters flag rather than where it builds its products, and Tesla moved that flag to Texas.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX’s newest logo confirms everything about what it’s become

SpaceX officially absorbed xAI under the SpaceXAI brand, completing the largest private merger in history.

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SpaceX made its corporate transformation official in May 2026 when Elon Musk posted on X that xAI would cease to exist as a standalone company. “xAI will be dissolved as a separate company, so it will just be SpaceXAI, the AI products from SpaceX,” he wrote.

A new SpaceXAI logo was announced today, visually embedding the xAI letters inside the SpaceX identity, which can be seen as a deliberate design choice that signals the merger is not a partnership but a full absorption and XAi a core function of the same company. The same way Starlink is not a separate brand but a SpaceX product. The announcement closed the loop on a process that began February 2, 2026, when SpaceX acquired xAI in the largest private merger in history, valued at $1.25 trillion. SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion.


The reason SpaceX bought xAI was stated plainly by Musk at the time of the deal: to build orbital data centers. SpaceX had simultaneously filed with the FCC to launch up to one million satellites designed to function as AI compute nodes in low Earth orbit, escaping what Musk described as the energy constraints limiting AI development on Earth.

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xAI provided the AI software stack, with Grok, the X platform, and the Colossus supercomputer infrastructure in Memphis with over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs, while SpaceX provided the rockets, Starlink, and the capital base to fund it. The two companies needed each other. xAI was burning $2.5 billion in losses on $250 million in revenue. SpaceX was generating an estimated $8 billion in profit on $15 billion in revenue and needed an AI narrative to command the valuation it was targeting for its IPO.

SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app

What SpaceX has done, regardless of how the orbital AI vision ultimately plays out, is walk into a public market as something no company has been before: a rocket manufacturer, satellite internet provider, AI software company, social media platform, and supercomputer operator under one ticker. Whether that combination is worth $2 trillion depends entirely on which of those businesses you believe in most.

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