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Investor's Corner

OPINION: Analysts miss the mark on Tesla following Q3 Delivery Guidance

Credit: Tesla

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This is a preview from our weekly newsletter. Each week I go ‘Beyond the News’ and handcraft a special edition that includes my thoughts on the biggest stories, why it matters, and how it could impact the future.

Tesla is coming off its most successful quarter in company history. The Q3 delivery guidance saw Tesla deliver over 241,000 vehicles for the first time in company history, with production at a slightly lower rate than that. However, despite the bullish outlook for Tesla from a retail investor standpoint, analysts and media continue to miss the mark on the company, believing in their breakdowns that the automaker’s growth story will begin to stagnate. However, Tesla is averting several crises simultaneously, including parts shortages and opening new facilities.

The consistently baffling thing to me as a journalist and reporter that has covered the sector for over two years is that analysts continue to sit on a hill, ready to die on it. Just because they have been outspoken when writing notes regarding their negative outlooks on Tesla stock or deliveries, they are unwilling to admit their wrongs, for the most part. Tesla has continued a growth story that is one of the most impressive in perhaps the long and storied history of the automotive industry.

I’m not an analyst. I did work in finance before I ventured into writing for a career, but I am in no way an analyst or seasoned investor of any kind. However, I do recognize that there are obvious shortcomings in the descriptions of Tesla by some analysts, unwilling to give credit where credit is due. Tesla has been the only car company on Earth that has been able to avert the semiconductor shortage through in-house measures and efforts. Tesla’s software team absolutely killed it with the development and production of microcontrollers that would assist with the company’s efforts to avoid a production stoppage. Yet, despite all of this effort and hard work and dedication by Tesla’s highly talented team of engineers, there is relatively no credit given by analysts apart from Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who was baffled at the company’s ability to avoid the chip shortage.

Tesla delivers record 241,300 cars in Q3, handily beating consensus estimates

Meanwhile, other automakers like Ford, who have adopted EVs partially with their release of the Mustang Mach-E and eventual releases of the F-150 Lightning and E-Transit van, are experiencing drops in deliveries. Ford had a 23% drop in pickup truck deliveries, despite the F-150 being the most popular truck in the U.S. market. While SUV sales did rise 3.4% compared to Q2, the drop in pickup trucks is evidently a result of the chip shortage, as many manufactured but incomplete pickups sit in lots surrounding the company’s production facilities waiting for chips.

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I don’t know this for a fact, but I feel as if mainstream media outlets would be singing the praises of companies like Ford, Chevy, GMC, or Honda if these companies were able to produce chips on their own and avoid the semiconductor issues. I do not necessarily like being accusatory of other media outlets, and I do not like going out of my way to believe that journalists have some kind of inside agenda. I believe all of us have a duty to remain fair and balanced and unbiased. But let’s be honest here, Tesla is not getting the attention or the credit it deserves. The semiconductor shortage is plaguing so many industries, and Tesla is averting it completely, somehow.

Companies are declining while Tesla has already reported eight consecutive profitable quarters, going for its ninth. We will find out if Tesla was profitable in Q3 next week during the Earnings Call on October 20th. However, the ability to conduct such consistent growth through deliveries in somewhat incredible, and I truly believe analysts are doing themselves and their clients a huge disservice by ignoring or avoiding such a tremendous growth story during such a trying time. Many of them will live to regret their decisions, whether it’s paid inside interests or a personal vendetta.

I think there is a reason many analysts with bullish Tesla outlooks are ranked so highly on TipRanks, while those who continue a bearish outlook are ranked tremendously low.

A big thanks to our long-time supporters and new subscribers! Thank you.

I use this newsletter to share my thoughts on what is going on in the Tesla world. If you want to talk to me directly, you can email me or reach me on Twitter. I don’t bite, be sure to reach out!

-Joey

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

FAA kicks off review of SpaceX’s bid to fly Starship nearly every day

FAA is reviewing SpaceX’s plan for 456 Starship launches a year, up from 25 today.

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Rendering of Elon Musk overlooking a Starship fleet (Credit: Grok)

The FAA said Tuesday that it will prepare an environmental impact statement on SpaceX’s proposal to run as many as 456 Starship launches and 912 landings a year from Starbase, Texas. SpaceX is currently authorized for 25 launches and 50 landings annually, which makes the request roughly 18 times the existing ceiling. The notice of intent is set to publish in the Federal Register on Wednesday.

The plan comes in two phases. Phase 1 would allow up to 100 launches and 200 landings a year, on any day and at any hour. Phase 2, which the FAA says could arrive within several years, would raise the limit to the full 456 launches, still at any hour but only on weekdays. The agency noted that 912 landings is the upper limit for the Texas facility no matter where a given mission begins, and that Starship and Super Heavy could come down at the launch site or in the Gulf and open ocean.

A draft statement will be released for public comment at a later date, and the FAA has not said when. According to the Federal Registar, written comments are due November 30 on regulations.gov under docket FAA-2026-12808, with in person scoping meetings on November 17 in Brownsville and November 19 in Port Isabel, plus a virtual session on November 18. The review will weigh air quality, wildlife, coastal resources, water, noise, and aviation, and the FAA said any increase beyond this proposal would need its own separate review.

The numbers look large next to what Starbase has actually done. Starship has flown three times from Texas this year, including Flight 14 on September 28, the first orbital flight, which deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Bloomberg reported that Starbase has never launched more than five times in a calendar year. The current cap of 25 comes from an FAA approval in May 2025. In February, the agency also approved up to 44 Starship launches a year from Launch Complex 39A in Florida, so Phase 1 in Texas alone would more than double that allowance.

Musk has said Starship could eventually fly more than once per hour within less than a decade, per Bloomberg. The nearer term target is Flight 15. Musk said on October 10 that it is hopefully four to six weeks away and will try to catch the ship with the tower, as Teslarati covered. That flight still runs under the existing 25 launch limit, and so would every Starbase launch for as long as the new review takes.

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As of mid morning Pacific time on Tuesday, SpaceX had not posted about the filing on its own account.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk drops a Thanksgiving hint about Starship’s biggest test yet

Elon Musk says Starship Flight 15 will try to catch the ship itself, a first.

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Elon Musk says SpaceX’s next Starship flight will try something nobody has done before, by catching the ship itself. Speaking to roughly 2,000 people at the X Takeover event at Giga Texas on Saturday, Musk said Flight 15 is about four to six weeks away and “probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving, is my guess.”

That is a slip from earlier reporting, which had pointed to a launch as early as October 19. Musk explained why the date keeps moving. “We’re making a bunch of improvements to the rocket between every flight,” he said, adding that there are often hundreds, sometimes thousands, of small changes. This time the list is short, “but some of them take a fair bit of work and we’ve got to go inside the tank to make some of these changes.”

“We’re going to try to catch the ship, which is a super big deal,” Musk said. “If we do so, that’ll be the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket.” SpaceX has already caught the Super Heavy booster with the tower’s mechanical arms, and has talked about catching the ship since late 2025, but the upper stage has never been caught.

Musk also laid out what comes after. “The next big milestone would be to refly both the booster and the ship,” he said, describing a Flight 16 where “all parts of an orbital rocket are reflown.”

The reason SpaceX wants this comes down to cost and cadence. Every Starship ship so far has ended its flight in the ocean, and SpaceX expects most of those water landings to end in fireballs. A ship that returns to Starbase intact can be inspected and flown again. SpaceX’s IPO filing, says Starship V3 is designed to deliver 100 metric tons to orbit in a fully reusable configuration, that SpaceX aims to cut the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more versus the historical average, and that tower catches should allow “multiple launches per day.”

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The payoff goes beyond cheaper launches. The next generation Starlink V3 satellites are too large for Falcon 9 and can only fly on Starship, which can carry up to 60 per flight. Flight 14 on September 28 deployed the first 26 of them after Starship reached orbit despite an early engine shutdown, as Teslarati reported. Musk blamed engine computer software, and said the heat shield “was extremely robust,” which he claimed in August had solved Starship’s biggest challenge.

NASA’s Moon plans depend on the same capability. NASA’s inspector general has described a lander mission that needs a propellant depot in low Earth orbit and more than 10 tanker flights, with SpaceX targeting one tanker launch every six days. That schedule only works if ships and boosters come back fast and fly again. Also, ship to ship propellant transfer has not been attempted yet.

One interesting hurdle yet to be explored is bringing the ship back to the launch site, with reentry over land, which will undoubtedly come with a lot of aviation safety reviews.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX reveals how its 1 Million AI satellite network will work and prevent space collisions

SpaceX reveals plans for one million Starmind AI satellites and calls out operators hiding maneuvers.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX Starmind constellation via Grok
Concept rendering of SpaceX Starmind constellation via Grok

SpaceX has put the largest satellite count it has ever published into writing, and it says that plan only works if every other operator in orbit starts sharing what it knows.

In a new Space Safety page highlighted Tuesday morning by Sawyer Merritt on X, SpaceX said it “plans to operate up to 100,000 Starlink satellites and up to 1 million Starmind AI satellites to meet the growing demand for broadband and supercompute.” Starlink has a little over 11,000 satellites in orbit today, so the target alone implies roughly a ninefold expansion of the broadband network.

Starmind is SpaceX’s orbital AI compute constellation. Elon Musk confirmed the Starmind name in June after an xAI trademark filing surfaced, and in August SpaceX said it was working with Nvidia on the compute payload. The FCC accepted the filing for up to one million satellites back in February.

FCC accepts SpaceX filing for 1 million orbital data center plan

SpaceX also released a new render of what a full Starmind constellation could look like. Alongside it, SpaceX VP Michael Nicolls explained why the satellites will not operate on their own. “We need to operate clusters of satellites in tight formation to get enough coherent compute to run AI models efficiently,” Nicolls said. “A cluster will be 10-ish satellites connected with 10 terabits or so of bandwidth between them, and interconnected to the broader constellation.”

That is the most specific detail SpaceX has given on how Starmind will be built. Instead of a million independent servers, the network would work as tightly packed groups of about 10 satellites acting as one compute unit, with Starlink’s laser links carrying results back to Earth.

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Packing satellites that close together, at that scale, makes collision avoidance the central problem, and most of the Space Safety page is aimed at other operators. SpaceX said Starlink encountered collision risks with about 650 unique maneuvering third party satellites in 2026, and only about half of them shared data. Over six months, Starlink recorded roughly 164,000 more collision risks where the closest approach came within four hours of an unannounced maneuver.

Some operators keep maneuver plans private over proprietary concerns, while others cannot get government permission to share them. SpaceX called those policies “counterproductive,” saying they “largely only serve to create preventable collision risk between satellites.” Starlink is also offering a free ephemeris sharing and screening platform that returns risk results within a minute, backed by its Stargaze network of 30,000 optical sensors.

The push comes as the Starmind application draws opposition from astronomers and environmental groups. In a September filing with the FCC, SpaceX said each Starmind satellite could weigh up to 4,000 kg, nearly seven times the mass of a Starlink V2 Mini. Musk has brushed off crowding concerns before, telling viewers in June that “space is enormous” and that SpaceX already knows how to run very large constellations safely.

SpaceX’s Starmind page says its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, is designed to produce AI satellites at scale, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027.

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