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Investor's Corner

OPINION: Analysts miss the mark on Tesla following Q3 Delivery Guidance

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This is a preview from our weekly newsletter. Each week I go ‘Beyond the News’ and handcraft a special edition that includes my thoughts on the biggest stories, why it matters, and how it could impact the future.

Tesla is coming off its most successful quarter in company history. The Q3 delivery guidance saw Tesla deliver over 241,000 vehicles for the first time in company history, with production at a slightly lower rate than that. However, despite the bullish outlook for Tesla from a retail investor standpoint, analysts and media continue to miss the mark on the company, believing in their breakdowns that the automaker’s growth story will begin to stagnate. However, Tesla is averting several crises simultaneously, including parts shortages and opening new facilities.

The consistently baffling thing to me as a journalist and reporter that has covered the sector for over two years is that analysts continue to sit on a hill, ready to die on it. Just because they have been outspoken when writing notes regarding their negative outlooks on Tesla stock or deliveries, they are unwilling to admit their wrongs, for the most part. Tesla has continued a growth story that is one of the most impressive in perhaps the long and storied history of the automotive industry.

I’m not an analyst. I did work in finance before I ventured into writing for a career, but I am in no way an analyst or seasoned investor of any kind. However, I do recognize that there are obvious shortcomings in the descriptions of Tesla by some analysts, unwilling to give credit where credit is due. Tesla has been the only car company on Earth that has been able to avert the semiconductor shortage through in-house measures and efforts. Tesla’s software team absolutely killed it with the development and production of microcontrollers that would assist with the company’s efforts to avoid a production stoppage. Yet, despite all of this effort and hard work and dedication by Tesla’s highly talented team of engineers, there is relatively no credit given by analysts apart from Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who was baffled at the company’s ability to avoid the chip shortage.

Tesla delivers record 241,300 cars in Q3, handily beating consensus estimates

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Meanwhile, other automakers like Ford, who have adopted EVs partially with their release of the Mustang Mach-E and eventual releases of the F-150 Lightning and E-Transit van, are experiencing drops in deliveries. Ford had a 23% drop in pickup truck deliveries, despite the F-150 being the most popular truck in the U.S. market. While SUV sales did rise 3.4% compared to Q2, the drop in pickup trucks is evidently a result of the chip shortage, as many manufactured but incomplete pickups sit in lots surrounding the company’s production facilities waiting for chips.

I don’t know this for a fact, but I feel as if mainstream media outlets would be singing the praises of companies like Ford, Chevy, GMC, or Honda if these companies were able to produce chips on their own and avoid the semiconductor issues. I do not necessarily like being accusatory of other media outlets, and I do not like going out of my way to believe that journalists have some kind of inside agenda. I believe all of us have a duty to remain fair and balanced and unbiased. But let’s be honest here, Tesla is not getting the attention or the credit it deserves. The semiconductor shortage is plaguing so many industries, and Tesla is averting it completely, somehow.

Companies are declining while Tesla has already reported eight consecutive profitable quarters, going for its ninth. We will find out if Tesla was profitable in Q3 next week during the Earnings Call on October 20th. However, the ability to conduct such consistent growth through deliveries in somewhat incredible, and I truly believe analysts are doing themselves and their clients a huge disservice by ignoring or avoiding such a tremendous growth story during such a trying time. Many of them will live to regret their decisions, whether it’s paid inside interests or a personal vendetta.

I think there is a reason many analysts with bullish Tesla outlooks are ranked so highly on TipRanks, while those who continue a bearish outlook are ranked tremendously low.

A big thanks to our long-time supporters and new subscribers! Thank you.

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I use this newsletter to share my thoughts on what is going on in the Tesla world. If you want to talk to me directly, you can email me or reach me on Twitter. I don’t bite, be sure to reach out!

-Joey

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley

Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

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Credit: Tesla Optimus/X

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term outlook may be clouded by political controversies and regulatory headwinds, but Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a glimmer of opportunity for the electric vehicle maker. 

In a new note, the Morgan Stanley analyst estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots, assigning each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

Morgan Stanley highlights Optimus’ savings potential

Jonas highlighted the potential savings on Tesla’s workforce of 125,665 employees in his note, suggesting that the utilization of Optimus robots could significantly reduce labor costs. The analyst’s note arrived shortly after Tesla reported Q2 2025 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, which came close to Morgan Stanley’s estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086.

“Tesla has 125,665 employees worldwide (year-end 2024). On our calculations, a 10% substitution to humanoid at approximately ($200k NPV/humanoid) could be worth approximately $2.5bn,” Jonas wrote, as noted by Street Insider.

Jonas also issued some caution on Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter.

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Musk’s political ambitions

The backdrop to Jonas’ note included Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics. The Tesla CEO recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Though a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States. 

Jonas cautioned that Musk’s political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla’s core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. “We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares,” Jonas stated.

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Investor's Corner

Two Tesla bulls share differing insights on Elon Musk, the Board, and politics

Two noted Tesla bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

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Credit: Tesla

Two noted Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

While Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called on Tesla’s board to take concrete steps to ensure Musk remains focused on the EV maker, longtime Tesla supporter Cathie Wood of Ark Invest reaffirmed her confidence in the CEO and the company’s leadership.

Ives warns of distraction risk amid crucial growth phase

In a recent note, Ives stated that Tesla is at a critical point in its history, as the company is transitioning from an EV maker towards an entity that is more focused on autonomous driving and robotics. He then noted that the Board of Directors should “act now” and establish formal boundaries around Musk’s political activities, which could be a headwind on TSLA stock. 

Ives laid out a three-point plan that he believes could ensure that the electric vehicle maker is led with proper leadership until the end of the decade. First off, the analyst noted that a new “incentive-driven pay package for Musk as CEO that increases his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power” is necessary. He also stated that the Board should establish clear guidelines for how much time Musk must devote to Tesla operations in order to receive his compensation, and a dedicated oversight committee must be formed to monitor the CEO’s political activities.

Ives, however, highlighted that Tesla should move forward with Musk at its helm. “We urge the Board to act now and move the Tesla story forward with Musk as CEO,” he wrote, reiterating its Outperform rating on Tesla stock and $500 per share price target.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to Ives’ suggestions with a brief comment on X. “Shut up, Dan,” Musk wrote.

Cathie Wood reiterates trust in Musk and Tesla board

Meanwhile, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood expressed little concern over Musk’s latest controversies. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Wood said, “We do trust the board and the board’s instincts here and we stay out of politics.” She also noted that Ark has navigated Musk-related headlines since it first invested in Tesla.

Wood also pointed to Musk’s recent move to oversee Tesla’s sales operations in the U.S. and Europe as evidence of his renewed focus in the electric vehicle maker. “When he puts his mind on something, he usually gets the job done,” she said. “So I think he’s much less distracted now than he was, let’s say, in the White House 24/7,” she said.

TSLA stock is down roughly 25% year-to-date but has gained about 19% over the past 12 months, as noted in a StocksTwits report.

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Investor's Corner

Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Tesla (TSLA) ‘Overweight’ rating amid Q2 2025 deliveries

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), reiterating its “Overweight” rating and $355 price target amidst the company’s release of its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. 

Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025, falling below last year’s Q2 figure of 443,956 units. Despite softer demand in some countries in Europe and ongoing controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk, the firm maintained its view that Tesla is a long-term growth story in the EV sector.

Tesla’s Q2 results

Among the 384,122 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the second quarter, 373,728 were Model 3 and Model Y. The remaining 10,394 units were attributed to the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. Production was largely flat year-over-year at 410,244 units.

In the energy division, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage in Q2, which was above last year’s 9.4 GWh. Overall, Tesla continues to hold a strong position with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 17.7% gross margin, as noted in a report from Investing.com.

Tesla’s stock is still volatile

Tesla’s market cap fell to $941 billion on Monday amid volatility that was likely caused in no small part by CEO Elon Musk’s political posts on X over the weekend. Musk has announced that he is forming the America Party to serve as a third option for voters in the United States, a decision that has earned the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump. 

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Despite Musk’s controversial nature, some analysts remain bullish on TSLA stock. Apart from Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity also reiterated its “Buy” rating on Tesla shares, with the firm highlighting the company’s positive Q2 vehicle deliveries, which exceeded its expectations by 24,000 units. Cannacord also noted that Tesla remains strong in several markets despite its year-over-year decline in deliveries.

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