

Investor's Corner
Tesla’s CATL partnership in China is a strategic play that sets the stage for market domination
Tesla’s deal with battery supplier Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) for its Made-in-China Model 3 is a strategic move that will deepen the company’s roots in the world’s largest automotive market.
CATL is expected to supply a “zero cobalt” prismatic lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that the carmaker would use in its Model 3 sedan for the domestic market.
Reduce Battery Costs While Doing Good
The LFP batteries are expected to be cheaper by a “double-digit percent” compared to the existing batteries Tesla is using for its locally-produced Model 3. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a price reporting agency that specializes in lithium-ion batteries for EVs, estimates that Tesla will save more than 25% in cost compared to what the carmaker spends for batteries used for Model 3s in the United States.
Tesla uses cylindrical nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) batteries for its vehicles which typically have lower cobalt content than industry-popular nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCM) batteries used by other electric vehicle manufacturers. However, as the world begins to better understand the human toll for cobalt mining, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has expressed his intentions to cut cobalt-use in Tesla batteries. Thereby paving the way for a partnership with a battery cell manufacturer that has a zero to limited-need for cobalt – CATL.
We use less than 3% cobalt in our batteries & will use none in next gen
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 13, 2018
CATL will use its cell-to-pack (CTP) technology to improve the energy density and safety of the zero-cobalt batteries. Using the technology that involves more than 70 core patents, CATL can up the mass-energy density of the LFP batteries by 10 to 15 percent, reduce the number of parts of battery packs by around 40 percent, and improve volume utilization efficiency by 15 to 20 percent. The battery manufacturer also claims that it is taking steps to increase the energy density of its LPF batteries using CTP technology by 2024.
All of these factors make the equation a win-win for Tesla. Aside from the cost savings, the zero-cobalt batteries for the China Model 3 may also help improve the production process and help Giga Shanghai hit a 3,000 units per week run rate, consistently. Plus, Tesla’s partnership with a Chinese supplier can only help further improve its relationship with the government that has welcomed it with open arms.
Small Step To Reduce Cost, Big Step To Conquer China
Tesla’s Giga Shanghai has so far been impressive. The first vehicle production plant for Tesla outside of the US is practically a miracle by all standards. The facility was built from the ground up and it churned out its first locally-made Model 3s after 10 months.
It also makes sense to set up a car factory in the biggest automotive market in the world that brought roughly $3 billion in revenues to Tesla’s coffers in 2019 and positioned Tesla to conquer China.
“I feel there is a pretty big fundamental efficiency gain that Tesla has by just making cars, especially affordable cars than 3 and Y, at least on the continent where the customers are. what we’re doing — or have been doing in the past was really pretty silly in making cars in California and then shipping them halfway around the world…,” Musk said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.
With the CATL zero-cobalt batteries for MIC Model 3s, Tesla further localizes its supply chain in China. With localization, analysts believe that the China-made Model 3 can practically be a cash cow for Tesla.
A partnership with CATL can also put Tesla on a path to achieving higher profit margins for the China Model 3 while still being able to lower the price of its vehicles, thereby stimulating local demand even more.
According to Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn, the margins coming out of Giga Shanghai is expected to match that of vehicles coming out of Fremont. “And so if you add all of this up, our internal estimates are a pretty significant reduction in the cost of Model 3 in China relative to Fremont, but I think it’s also important to keep in mind that the cost of the Standard Plus that we’re selling out of Shanghai is also lower than that of the similar car coming out of Fremont from price perspective. And so and I’ve said this on previous earnings calls, I think it’s fair to expect the margin coming out of the Shanghai facility to match the same margin for the vehicle in Fremont,” noted Kirkhorn in Tesla’s Q4 earnings call.
With Tesla’s MIC Model 3 as an electric car for the masses, Elon Musk and his car brand can help change China. The government sees Tesla as a catalyst for its slumping automotive industry and a spark to help transition the wider population from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, which in turn can help combat air pollution that causes over 1 million deaths per year in the country and costing its economy roughly $40 billion annually.
The zero-cobalt batteries by the CATL for the China Tesla Model 3 might be one of the essential ingredients to further help TSLA skyrocket and drive the brand to consistent profitability.
Investor's Corner
Tesla still poised to earn $3B in ZEV credits this year: Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter maintained his $400 per share price target on TSLA stock.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still poised to earn about $3 billion in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) credits this year despite growing concerns over policy shifts under United States President Donald Trump. This is, at least, according to Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter, who maintained his $400 per share price target and “Overweight” rating on TSLA stock.
Tesla’s ZEV credit revenue
In a recent investor note, Potter acknowledged that Trump’s efforts to undo EV-related incentives could impact Tesla’s ZEV credit income. The analyst noted that these effects would likely not be too drastic, however, even if ZEV credits provide Tesla’s finances with a substantial boost. Last year, Tesla earned about $3.5 billion from regulatory credits, equal to nearly 100% of the company’s FY24 free cash flow, as noted in a Benzinga report.
Potter estimated that the impact of potential regulatory reversals from the Trump administration will likely not be immediate. “Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026,” the Piper Sandler analyst wrote.
Considering his reiterated $400 price target for Tesla stock, Potter seems to be expecting an upside of over 20% for the electric vehicle maker. It should be noted, however, that Tesla is a volatile stock by nature, so huge swings in stock price may happen even without material developments from the company.
Robotaxi developments
The Piper Sandler analyst also highlighted the progress of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program and Robotaxi developments as potential offsets to regulatory headwinds. Potter pointed to expanding operations in Austin and Tesla’s push to launch Robotaxi services in Phoenix and the Bay Area, pending regulatory approval.
“In our view, these favorable FSD-related developments are likely to overshadow any/all negative commentary arising from lower 2025/2026 estimates,” the analyst wrote.
In addition to rescinding ZEV programs, the Trump administration has proposed ending the $7,500 federal EV credit by September 2025 and rolling back Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT
Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.

One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.
As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.
However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”
Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits
There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.
The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.
As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:
“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”
Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:
- 2020: $1.58 billion
- 2021: $1.465 billion
- 2022: $1.776 billion
- 2023: $1.79 billion
- 2024: $2.763 billion
Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.
Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla ‘Model Q’ gets bold prediction from Deutsche Bank that investors will love
Tesla’s Model Q could be on the way soon, and a new note from Deutsche Bank thinks it will contribute to Q4 deliveries.

The Tesla “Model Q” has been in the rumor mill for the company for several years, but a recent note from Wall Street firm Deutsche Bank seems to indicate that it could be on its way in the near future.
This comes as Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was “on track” for the first half of 2025. The company did not say it would unveil the vehicles in the first half, but many are anticipating that more cost-friendly models could be revealed to the public soon.
Potential affordable Tesla “Model 2/Model Q” test car spotted anew in Giga Texas
The Deutsche Bank note refers to one of the rumored affordable models as the “Model Q,” but we’ve also seen it referred to as the “Model 2,” amongst other names. Tesla has not officially coined any of its upcoming vehicles as such, but these are more of a universally accepted phrase to identify them, at least for now.
The rumors stem from sentiments regarding Tesla’s 2025 delivery projections, which are tempered as the company seeks to maintain a steady pace compared to 2023 and 2024, when it reported 1.8 million deliveries.
Deutsche Bank’s analysts believe the deliveries could be around 1.58 million, but they state this is a cautious stance that could be impacted by several things, including the potential launch of the Model Q, which they believe will make its way to market in Q4:
“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4). In China, Tesla will introduce the Model Y L this fall (6 inch longer wheel base allowing for larger 3-row seating with six seats).”
Interestingly, the same firm also predicted that the Model Q would launch in the first half of the year based on a note that was released in early December 2024.
Those estimations came from a reported meeting that Deutsche Bank had with Tesla late last year, where it said it aimed to launch the Model Q for less than $30,000 and aimed for it to compete with cars like the Volkswagen ID.3 and BYD Dolphin.
Tesla’s Q2 Earnings Call is slated for this Wednesday and could reveal some additional details about the affordable models.
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