Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025. 

Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

U.S. and China demand

In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The firm is also optimistic about China’s deliveries, which the firm noted is trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China for the third quarter, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.

The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”

Earnings outlook

Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%. 

Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.

Elon Musk recently addressed his proposed Tesla 2025 CEO Performance Award on X, highlighting that his concerns are about influence, not personal wealth. 

The 2025 CEO Performance Award, worth up to $900 billion in TSLA stock, could make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, provided that he hits incredibly ambitious targets for the electric vehicle maker.

Tesla’s ambitious targets

Musk shared his thoughts in a response to an X post that referenced his compensation package. “It’s not about ‘compensation,’ but about me having enough influence over Tesla to ensure safety if we build millions of robots. 

“If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s new performance award would grant Musk shares as the company grows from today’s $1.1 trillion valuation to an incredible $8.5 trillion within a decade. At that level, Tesla would become the world’s largest company by valuation by a notable margin, eclipsing today’s top companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft.

Massive product goals

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award will not be easy to accomplish. To earn his award, Musk would have to lead Tesla an operating profit of $400 billion anually, a substantial increase from today’s $17 billion annually.

Musk’s influence would grow alongside Tesla’s valuation, with his stake rising from 13% to about 25%. Tesla’s board emphasized in its filing that retaining Musk is fundamental to hitting these milestones.

The package extends beyond financials, as it also ties compensation to milestones in Tesla’s core products and emerging technologies. These include the delivery of 20 million vehicles cumulatively, 10 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions, and the deployment of 1 million robots, and the rollout of 1 million Robotaxis.

Tesla registrations across Europe rose sharply in the week of September 15-21, with new data showing the company’s best week of the quarter. Over the week, industry trackers reported 5,500 Tesla sales across 10 European markets, a 25.3% increase week-over-week. 

The improvement suggests that Tesla may be regaining some momentum after months of uneven performance tied to its Model Y refresh earlier this year.

Quarterly trends and stabilization

The 5,500 registrations marked Tesla’s strongest showing in Q3 2025 so far, as per data shared by industry watcher Piloly on social media platform X. With about a week left in Q3 2025, Tesla’s European sales are up 6.3% quarter-over-quarter. Year-to-date, however, Tesla’s European deliveries are still 20% lower compared to 2024’s figures.

The data covers roughly 60% of Europe’s EV market, including major countries such as the UK, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, and Italy. While Tesla remains under last year’s levels, its recent rebound suggests that the availability of the updated Model Y may very well be helping stabilize demand.

Market dynamics across Europe

Tesla’s overall performance this year in Europe remains uneven depending on the country. Norway has emerged as a bright spot, with Q3 2025 already matching last year’s totals and on pace for a record-setting quarter, as noted in a previous report. In Sweden, however, Tesla’s sales remain heavily impacted with notable year-over-year declines.

Despite the lingering year-to-date shortfall, September’s registration momentum suggests that earlier concerns about Tesla’s European slump may have been overstated. With several days still left in the quarter, all eyes are on whether Tesla can maintain its recent pace and close the gap with its 2024 figures.