Connect with us

News

Tesla's China Gigafactory will be the game-changer of 2020, predicts analyst

(Credit: Jay In Shanghai/Twitter)

Published

6 years ago

on

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has managed to rip through its self-imposed goals for 2019, and 2020 could prove to be even bigger. As the electric car maker tackles yet another year, Wall Street analyst Dan Ives of Los Angeles-based Wealth Management company Wedbush Securities believes that Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 will be one of the company’s most important assets in 2020.

“With the first Chinese made Model 3s delivered over the past week and Giga 3 on pace to produce over 1,000 cars per week, the bull/bear debate will center around ramping production and demand to the 100k/150k level annually in China and how quick this dynamic will ramp,” Ives wrote in a note on January 2, just a day before Tesla released its Q4 and Full-Year delivery and production figures. 

Tesla broke ground on Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai in early 2019. Less than a year later, the company is already producing sales-ready Tesla Model 3s and delivering them to Tesla employees. The company announced that its second round of deliveries is set for January 7. This next segment of deliveries for the Made-in-China Model 3 will give non-Tesla employees deliveries of the company’s most affordable sedan.

Tesla has already reached a production rate of 1,500 Model 3s at Gigafactory 3 during a six-day workweek, though more recent reports from China reveal that the massive Shanghai-based facility has reached a run-rate of 3,000 vehicles a week.

Tesla’s stock recently broke the infamous $420 per share barrier and was trading as high as $453 per share on January 3. Ultimately, Ives believes the company’s stock could go even higher in 2020 due to Gigafactory 3, with the facility’s performance and production being worth an additional $75 to $100 to TSLA shares. This could prove to be Tesla’s opportunity to cement itself as the most valuable car manufacturer in the United States.

Advertisement
-->

Tesla’s Q4 2019 report stated the company produced almost 105,000 vehicles and delivered around 112,000 from October to December 2019. That’s a 50% increase from the previous year. Over 92,000 of the 112,000 delivered vehicles were Tesla Model 3s.

As Gigafactory 3 production continues to ramp up and Tesla begins to prepare for the first construction phases of Gigafactory 4 in Berlin, Germany, the electric car manufacturer has plenty to be excited about. As for Ives, he believes that Tesla’s performance in China and Europe will be key indicators on whether the company can sustain the level of success they realized in the final months of 2019.

Tesla stock ended Friday’s trading up 2.96% at $443.01 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Advertisement
-->
Related Topics:

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

Advertisement
Comments

Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance

Published

32 minutes ago

on

December 15, 2025

By

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | YouTube

Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.

As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.

Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.

He said in April:

“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”

Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.

In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.

Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.

In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:

  • January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
  • January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
  • July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
  • October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
  • July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries

It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.

These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla removes Safety Monitors, begins fully autonomous Robotaxi testing

This development, in terms of the Robotaxi program, is massive. Tesla has been working incredibly hard to expand its fleet of Robotaxi vehicles to accommodate the considerable demand it has experienced for the platform.

Published

13 hours ago

on

December 14, 2025

By

Credit: @Mandablorian | X

Tesla has started Robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas, without any vehicle occupants, the company’s CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Sunday. Two Tesla Model Y Robotaxi units were spotted in Austin traveling on public roads with nobody in the car.

The testing phase begins just a week after Musk confirmed that Tesla would be removing Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Tesla has been working to initiate driverless rides by the end of the year since the Robotaxi fleet was launched back in June.

Two units were spotted, with the first being seen from the side and clearly showing no human beings inside the cabin of the Model Y Robotaxi:

Another unit, which is the same color but was confirmed as a different vehicle, was spotted just a few moments later:

The two units are traveling in the general vicinity of the South Congress and Dawson neighborhoods of downtown Austin. These are located on the southside of the city.

This development, in terms of the Robotaxi program, is massive. Tesla has been working incredibly hard to expand its fleet of Robotaxi vehicles to accommodate the considerable demand it has experienced for the platform.

However, the main focus of the Robotaxi program since its launch in the Summer was to remove Safety Monitors and initiate completely driverless rides. This effort is close to becoming a reality, and the efforts of the company are coming to fruition.

It is a drastic step in the company’s trek for self-driving technology, as it plans to expand it to passenger vehicles in the coming years. Tesla owners have plenty of experience with the Full Self-Driving suite, which is not fully autonomous, but is consistently ranked among the best-performing platforms in the world.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla refines Full Self-Driving, latest update impresses where it last came up short

We were able to go out and test it pretty extensively on Saturday, and the changes Tesla made from the previous version were incredibly impressive, especially considering it seemed to excel where it last came up short.

Published

1 day ago

on

December 14, 2025

By

Credit: TESLARATI

Tesla released Full Self-Driving v14.2.1.25 on Friday night to Early Access Program (EAP) members. It came as a surprise, as it was paired with the release of the Holiday Update.

We were able to go out and test it pretty extensively on Saturday, and the changes Tesla made from the previous version were incredibly impressive, especially considering it seemed to excel where it last came up short.

Tesla supplements Holiday Update by sneaking in new Full Self-Driving version

With Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1, there were some serious regressions. Speed Profiles were overtinkered with, causing some modes to behave in a strange manner. Hurry Mode was the most evident, as it refused to go more than 10 MPH over the speed limit on freeways.

It would routinely hold up traffic at this speed, and flipping it into Mad Max mode was sort of over the top. Hurry is what I use most frequently, and it had become somewhat unusable with v14.2.1.

It seemed as if Speed Profiles should be more associated with both passing and lane-changing frequency. Capping speeds does not help as it can impede the flow of traffic. When FSD travels at the speed of other traffic, it is much more effective and less disruptive.

With v14.2.1.25, there were three noticeable changes that improved its performance significantly: Speed Profile refinements, lane change confidence, and Speed Limit recognition.

Speed Profile Refinement

Speed Profiles have been significantly improved. Hurry Mode is no longer capped at 10 MPH over the speed limit and now travels with the flow of traffic. This is much more comfortable during highway operation, and I was not required to intervene at any point.

With v14.2.1, I was sometimes assisting it with lane changes, and felt it was in the wrong place at the wrong time more frequently than ever before.

However, this was one of the best-performing FSD versions in recent memory, and I really did not have any complaints on the highway. Speed, maneuvering, lane switching, routing, and aggressiveness were all perfect.

Lane Changes

v14.2.1 had a tendency to be a little more timid when changing lanes, which was sort of frustrating at times. When the car decides to change lanes and turn on its signal, it needs to pull the trigger and change lanes.

It also changed lanes at extremely unnecessary times, which was a real frustration.

There were no issues today on v14.2.1.25; lane changes were super confident, executed at the correct time, and in the correct fashion. It made good decisions on when to get into the right lane when proceeding toward its exit.

It was one of the first times in a while that I did not feel as if I needed to nudge it to change lanes. I was very impressed.

Speed Limit Recognition

So, this is a complex issue. With v14.2.1, there were many times when it would see a Speed Limit sign that was not meant for the car (one catered for tractor trailers, for example) or even a route sign, and it would incorrectly adjust the speed. It did this on the highway several times, mistaking a Route 30 sign for a 30 MPH sign, then beginning to decelerate from 55 MPH to 30 MPH on the highway.

This required an intervention. I also had an issue leaving a drive-thru Christmas lights display, where the owners of the private property had a 15 MPH sign posted nearly every 200 yards for about a mile and a half.

The car identified it as a 55 MPH sign and sped up significantly. This caused an intervention, and I had to drive manually.

It seems like FSD v14.2.1.25 is now less reliant on the signage (maybe because it was incorrectly labeling it) and more reliant on map data or the behavior of nearby traffic.

A good example was on the highway today: despite the car reading that Route 30 sign and the Speed Limit sign on the center screen reading 30 MPH, the car did not decelerate. It continued at the same speed, but I’m not sure if that’s because of traffic or map data:

A Lone Complaint

Tesla has said future updates will include parking improvements, and I’m really anxious for them, because parking is not great. I’ve had some real issues with it over the past couple of months.

Today was no different:

Full Self-Driving v14.2.1.25 is really a massive improvement over past versions, and it seems apparent that Tesla took its time with fixing the bugs, especially with highway operation on v14.2.1.

Continue Reading