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Tesla's China Gigafactory will be the game-changer of 2020, predicts analyst
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has managed to rip through its self-imposed goals for 2019, and 2020 could prove to be even bigger. As the electric car maker tackles yet another year, Wall Street analyst Dan Ives of Los Angeles-based Wealth Management company Wedbush Securities believes that Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 will be one of the company’s most important assets in 2020.
“With the first Chinese made Model 3s delivered over the past week and Giga 3 on pace to produce over 1,000 cars per week, the bull/bear debate will center around ramping production and demand to the 100k/150k level annually in China and how quick this dynamic will ramp,” Ives wrote in a note on January 2, just a day before Tesla released its Q4 and Full-Year delivery and production figures.
Tesla broke ground on Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai in early 2019. Less than a year later, the company is already producing sales-ready Tesla Model 3s and delivering them to Tesla employees. The company announced that its second round of deliveries is set for January 7. This next segment of deliveries for the Made-in-China Model 3 will give non-Tesla employees deliveries of the company’s most affordable sedan.
Tesla has already reached a production rate of 1,500 Model 3s at Gigafactory 3 during a six-day workweek, though more recent reports from China reveal that the massive Shanghai-based facility has reached a run-rate of 3,000 vehicles a week.
Tesla’s stock recently broke the infamous $420 per share barrier and was trading as high as $453 per share on January 3. Ultimately, Ives believes the company’s stock could go even higher in 2020 due to Gigafactory 3, with the facility’s performance and production being worth an additional $75 to $100 to TSLA shares. This could prove to be Tesla’s opportunity to cement itself as the most valuable car manufacturer in the United States.
Tesla’s Q4 2019 report stated the company produced almost 105,000 vehicles and delivered around 112,000 from October to December 2019. That’s a 50% increase from the previous year. Over 92,000 of the 112,000 delivered vehicles were Tesla Model 3s.
As Gigafactory 3 production continues to ramp up and Tesla begins to prepare for the first construction phases of Gigafactory 4 in Berlin, Germany, the electric car manufacturer has plenty to be excited about. As for Ives, he believes that Tesla’s performance in China and Europe will be key indicators on whether the company can sustain the level of success they realized in the final months of 2019.
Tesla stock ended Friday’s trading up 2.96% at $443.01 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
xAI’s Grok approved for Pentagon classified systems: report
Under the agreement, Grok can be deployed in systems handling classified intelligence analysis, weapons development, and battlefield operations.
Elon Musk’s xAI has signed an agreement with the United States Department of Defense (DoD) to allow Grok to be used in classified military systems.
Previously, Anthropic’s Claude had been the only AI system approved for the most sensitive military work, but a dispute over usage safeguards has reportedly prompted the Pentagon to broaden its options, as noted in a report from Axios.
Under the agreement, Grok can be deployed in systems handling classified intelligence analysis, weapons development, and battlefield operations.
The publication reported that xAI agreed to the Pentagon’s requirement that its technology be usable for “all lawful purposes,” a standard Anthropic has reportedly resisted due to alleged ethical restrictions tied to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons use.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to meet with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei in what sources expect to be a tense meeting, with the publication hinting that the Pentagon could designate Anthropic a “supply chain risk” if the company does not lift its safeguards.
Axios stated that replacing Claude fully might be technically challenging even if xAI or other alternative AI systems take its place. That being said, other AI systems are already in use by the DoD.
Grok already operates in the Pentagon’s unclassified systems alongside Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Google is reportedly close to an agreement that will result in Gemini being used for classified use, while OpenAI’s progress toward classified deployment is described as slower but still feasible.
The publication noted that the Pentagon continues talks with several AI companies as it prepares for potential changes in classified AI sourcing.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk denies Starlink’s price cuts are due to Amazon Kuiper
“This has nothing to do with Kuiper, we’re just trying to make Starlink more affordable to a broader audience,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Elon Musk has pushed back on claims that Starlink’s recent price reductions are tied to Amazon’s Kuiper project.
In a post on X, Musk responded directly to a report suggesting that Starlink was cutting prices and offering free hardware to partners ahead of a planned IPO and increased competition from Kuiper.
“This has nothing to do with Kuiper, we’re just trying to make Starlink more affordable to a broader audience,” Musk wrote in a post on X. “The lower the cost, the more Starlink can be used by people who don’t have much money, especially in the developing world.”
The speculation originated from a post summarizing a report from The Information, which ran with the headline “SpaceX’s Starlink Makes Land Grab as Amazon Threat Looms.” The report stated that SpaceX is aggressively cutting prices and giving free hardware to distribution partners, which was interpreted as a reaction to Amazon’s Kuiper’s upcoming rollout and possible IPO.
In a way, Musk’s comments could be quite accurate considering Starlink’s current scale. The constellation currently has more than 9,700 satellites in operation today, making it by far the largest satellite broadband network in operation. It has also managed to grow its user base to 10 million active customers across more than 150 countries worldwide.
Amazon’s Kuiper, by comparison, has launched approximately 211 satellites to date, as per data from SatelliteMap.Space, some of which were launched by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. Starlink surpassed that number in early January 2020, during the early buildout of its first-generation network.
Lower pricing also aligns with Starlink’s broader expansion strategy. SpaceX continues to deploy satellites at a rapid pace using Falcon 9, and future launches aboard Starship are expected to significantly accelerate the constellation’s growth. A larger network improves capacity and global coverage, which can support a broader customer base.
In that context, price reductions can be viewed as a way to match expanding supply with growing demand. Musk’s companies have historically used aggressive pricing strategies to drive adoption at scale, particularly when vertical integration allows costs to decline over time.
News
Tesla Giga Berlin makes a statement of solidarity amid IG Metall conflict
The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.
Tesla Giga Berlin is sending a strong message of solidarity amid its ongoing legal dispute with German union IG Metall.
In a post on social media platform X, Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig shared an image of the facility’s lobby covered with a large banner that reads: “Progress. Innovation. Success.” He added that the slogan reflects what the facility has stood for since Day One.
“Our lobby at Giga Berlin covered in a huge banner these days. Progress. Innovation. Success – this is what we stand for since we started production in 2022 and how we will go into our future!” Thierig wrote in his post on X.
The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.
The dispute began after Tesla accused a union representative of secretly recording a works council meeting at Giga Berlin. Tesla stated that it filed a criminal complaint after the alleged incident. Police later confirmed they had seized a computer belonging to an IG Metall member as part of their investigation.
“What has happened today at Giga Berlin is truly beyond words! An external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting. For unknown reasons he recorded the internal meeting and was caught in action! We obviously called police and filed a criminal complaint!” Thierig wrote on X at the time.
IG Metall denied the accusation and characterized Tesla’s move as an election tactic ahead of upcoming works council elections. The union subsequently filed a defamation complaint against Thierig. Authorities later confirmed that an investigation had been opened in connection with the matter.
Giga Berlin began production in 2022 and has since become one of Tesla’s key European manufacturing hubs, producing the Model Y, the company’s best-selling vehicle. The facility has expanded capacity over the past years despite environmental protests, labor disputes, and regulatory scrutiny.