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Tesla and other EVs’ potential to reduce emissions is widely underestimated: study

(Credit: Tesla)

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There are a lot of misconceptions about electric vehicles, but arguably the most prominent is the argument that EVs pollute more than their internal combustion engine-powered counterparts. Despite being debunked over and over again by people like Tesla CEO Elon Musk and organizations like Bloomberg NEF, the “long tailpipe” myth has remained incredibly persistent.

A recent study from electric mobility expert Auke Hoekstra has concluded that electric vehicles actually have the potential to be far cleaner than expected, especially since battery manufacturing and the power grid will likely not remain static. As the adoption of more efficiencies in battery manufacturing are rolled out and as more and more energy is gathered through renewable sources, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric cars like the Tesla Model 3 will see a dramatic reduction.

The findings of Hoekstra et al. stand in stark contrast to the conclusions of a study published by scientists Christoph Buchal, Hans-Dieter Karl and Hans-Werner Sinn earlier this year, who claimed that a Tesla Model 3 pollutes more than a Mercedes-Benz C 220 d due to the greenhouse gas emissions involved in the production of the electric car’s batteries. This conclusion, according to Hoekstra, has several critical mistakes.

For one, researchers such as Buchal et al. tend to overestimate the emissions produced in the battery manufacturing process. Hoekstra noted that around 65 kg of greenhouse gas emissions is emitted for every kWh of battery produced, which includes extracting and refining raw materials and actually producing the battery cells themselves. Buchal’s study estimated that the Model 3 emits 145–195 kg/kWh for its battery production, which does not take into account new chemistries that are adopted for battery production, or improvements in the cell manufacturing process.

The lifetime of batteries is also grossly underestimated in studies that allege EVs pollute more (or marginally less) than gas cars. In Buchal et al.’s case, for example, the scientists estimated that the Model 3’s batteries would only last 150,000 km (around 93,000 miles) before they are scrapped. This is a miscalculation, considering that current-generation batteries are estimated to last at least 1,500 to 3,000 cycles before they lose 20% of their capacity. For a vehicle like a Tesla Model 3 with Dual Motor AWD, which has a range of 310 miles, this would give the car around 747,000 km (about 464,000 miles) on the low end (1500 cycles) before their batteries would need replacing. And even after this, the batteries are recycled, not discarded, as noted by Elon Musk.

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Perhaps the most notable miscalculation from EV critics is that many fail to account for the fact that electricity itself is getting greener with the adoption of renewable energy solutions. Battery-electric vehicles in some areas of the globe might be driving on power generated from coal today, but that will not always be the case. If an EV is driven on renewable energy sources, Hoekstra estimates that the battery-powered vehicles’ emissions would drop by a factor of 10. And that’s computing it using current-generation renewable technology.

The struggle for the future’s preferred form of propulsion will continue to be waged between batteries/electric motors and fossil fuels/internal combustion engine. Yet, it is essential to note that the internal combustion engine is already a mature technology that has likely reached its peak. Battery-powered cars, on the other hand, are only getting started. Heralded by the Model 3, the advent of disruptive vehicles like the new Tesla Roadster, the Rivian R1T pickup, or even the Porsche Taycan could ultimately seal the deal on electricity being the preferred source of propulsion in the years to come.

An Abstract of Hoekstra et al.’s study could be accessed here.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla coding shows affordable model details, including potential price

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Credit: @tslaming | X

Coding within Tesla’s website appears to have potentially revealed some details of the affordable model it plans to launch, including its possible price.

Although these details are unconfirmed by the company, recent sightings of the vehicle have sparked significant speculation as to what it will offer.

Tesla said a few months back that it had already successfully built the first few test units of the affordable model. CEO Elon Musk revealed later that it would essentially be a stripped-down version of the Model Y with a handful of changes.

We had our first look at what those changes appear to be, as what is likely the new affordable model was spotted on roads near Gigafactory Texas yesterday. It is a Model Y body with some Model 3 features.

It lacks the light bar that the new Model Y has and instead equips headlights similar to those of the Model 3 “Highland.”

Affordable Tesla Model Y spotted without camouflage near Giga Texas

Other design changes appear to include no glass roof and new wheels. Some rumors have also indicated that Tesla plans to use a cheaper, textile interior, devoid of the flashy features that its other cars are equipped with, including no rear screen, no HEPA system, and manually adjustable second-row air vents.

However, coding within the Tesla website seemed to reveal some pretty significant details about the new affordable model, including its name, which differs from the E41 codename it was given, its price, and a complete list of features.

This was found by Tesla Newswire on X. Here’s what the coding showed for the car. Note that this was found in coding, and is not necessarily confirmation from Tesla regarding what it plans to offer:

  • Name – Model Y Standard
  • Price $39,990
  • Redesigned front fascia
  • Single-part headlights
  • Front bumper camera
  • No glass roof, noted as a “closed glass roof”
  • 18″ Aperture wheels
  • Manually adjustable steering wheel
  • Textile décor
  • 15.4″ front touchscreen
  • No second-row touchscreen
  • Manually adjustable air vents in the second row
  • No HEPA system
  • 75 cu. fu. cargo space

Here’s what the coding looked like:

Many believe these could be the specs and details of the new affordable model, but others think Tesla might be baiting the community. Tesla knows its fans well, and many of them are sharp enough to examine some of the core portions of its website, looking for clues.

The company is well aware that these breadcrumbs will be discovered, and could be putting anything to drive up interest and chatter about what it could release. It certainly seems as if the price tag is a tad high, which tends to push some skepticism about the coding.

However, we’ll take anything we can get at this point. It is important to note that this coding is not a confirmation of details from Tesla.

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Affordable Tesla Model Y spotted without camouflage near Giga Texas

The vehicle had clean lines and it looked sleek, though it was also notably simpler than the standard Model Y.

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Credit: Ryan Mable/X

The tea leaves seem to be pointing towards the imminent release of the highly anticipated affordable Tesla Model Y. This was hinted at in recent observations from notable Tesla influencers on social media, as well as a sighting of the vehicle without any camouflage.

The affordable Tesla uncovered

Sightings of the affordable Model Y have been abounding as of late, though details of the vehicle were still hidden by coverings on the vehicle. In a recent post on X from Firefly engineer Ryan Mable, however, noted Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt has reportedly “spotted an uncovered cheaper Model Y variant” driving near Giga Texas. 

Several images of the uncovered vehicle were shared online. Based on the photos that were shared by Mable, the affordable Model Y seemed to feature a fascia that’s inspired by the Model 3 sedan. Its roof also looked blacked out. Overall, the vehicle had clean lines and it looked sleek, though it was also notably simpler than the standard Model Y.

Tesla influencer mystery

Interestingly enough, several Tesla influencers apart from Merritt posted that they were in Giga Texas. These included drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, teardown specialist Sandy Munro, and reviewers Kyle Conner and Kim Java. These influencers have not provided any context behind their Giga Texas trip, though the fact that they were gathered on the site brought speculations that Tesla might have invited the group for a teaser or a private unveiling event of sorts.

It remains to be seen when the affordable Model Y would be made available, though conversations now are centered on the vehicle’s potential price. Previous reports suggested that the car might be priced just below $40,000, which many believe would result in very low sales, though some have also speculated that the affordable Model Y could be priced below $35,000, which would likely make it a strong seller.

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