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Tesla, other carmakers’ EV output could ‘vastly outweigh consumer demand’ by 2030: study

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With electric vehicles steadily improving and with large markets such as Europe and China embracing sustainable transport, the market for green cars has seen a notable rise. In 2018 alone, two million electric vehicles were sold globally, and all signs point to further growth ahead. In a recent analysis, research firm Deloitte noted that over the next decade, there would probably be an additional 21 million EVs driving on roads across the globe.

Deloitte expects the adoption of electric vehicles to become more widespread in the coming years. From two million in 2018, the research firm expects 4 million EVs to be sold by 2020. By 2025, Deloitte expects global EV sales to hit 12 million. By 2030, the research firm estimates electric vehicle adoption to rise to 21 million units, with battery-electric vehicles such as Tesla’s Model S, 3, and X accounting for roughly 70% of the global auto market’s total EV sales.

Deloitte’s analysis notes that two notable factors primarily drive this strong EV adoption trend. One, there is a growing demand for well-rounded electric vehicles like the Tesla Model 3. Two, government policies from key markets such as Europe and China are becoming more favorable for EVs and EV-buyers, including inner-city restrictions for gasoline and diesel-powered cars.

While electric cars today are still weighed down by their prices, Deloitte’s research suggests that EVs would likely reach cost parity with gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2024. Supported with government subsidies and augmented by technological advances such as Tesla’s ever-evolving driver-assist Autopilot features, the research firm estimates that cost parity with internal combustion-powered cars could be achieved as early as 2021. Michael Woodward, UK automotive partner at Deloitte, explained the firm’s findings as follows.

“In 2018, we saw global EV sales surpass two million units for the first time; twice those sold in 2017. In the UK, the cost of petrol and diesel vehicle ownership will converge with electric over the next five years. Supported by existing government subsidies and technology advances, this tipping point could be reached as early as 2021. From this point, cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase, and owning an EV will become a realistic, viable option for new buyers,” he said.

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While Deloitte’s conclusions invoke an air of optimism for the electric car market, though, the research firm’s UK automotive partner warns that there would likely be a point where supply would exceed the demand for electric vehicles. The firm’s research also warns that the number of new and legacy auto manufacturers entering the EV market over the next years would eventually be “unsustainable.”

“Whilst there is a distinct trend developing in the EV market, the story is not a clear cut one. As manufacturers increase their capacity, our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade. This gearing up of EV production is driving a wide ‘expectation gap’ and manufacturers, both incumbent and new entrants alike, will need to adapt towards this new competitive landscape. Those that can successfully build trust in their brand, ensure a positive customer experience from initial sale through to aftercare, and reflect consumer shifts towards the sharing economy in future business models will successfully navigate this. Equally, continual investment in engineering talent and the formation of partnerships with bespoke battery producers and third-party mechanic networks will also be important.”

In a way, the conclusions drawn by Deloitte are a bit strange, since the firm seems to be suggesting that the global demand for electric cars would roughly peak at 21 million a year. Considering that the overall auto market is far larger than 21 million vehicles per year (Statista estimates that over 80 million cars were sold in 2018 alone), the study appears to be suggesting that the demand for gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles would remain steady long after EVs reach cost parity. This is a pretty liberal assumption, which ignores the idea of car buyers completely committing to electric transportation once they try out a premium EV.

Tesla’s growth and triumphs over the years had all but proved that there is a very real demand for premium electric cars in the market. With the release of potentially disruptive vehicles such as the Model Y SUV, the Tesla pickup truck, and the Tesla Semi, the market’s acceptance of electric cars as a preferred form of transportation would likely be even more pronounced. As more car buyers transition to EVs, it would not be too farfetched to assume that the demand for electric cars could far exceed 21 million vehicles per year long after 2030.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla attack in Las Vegas results in several vehicles being set on fire

Photos from the location also show that the Tesla service center had been vandalized with graffiti.

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Credit: Tesla

Authorities are investigating a suspected arson attack at a Tesla service center in Las Vegas, Nevada, where an individual allegedly torched multiple vehicles in the early hours of Tuesday. 

The Incident

The Metropolitan Police Department noted that the incident occurred around 2:45 a.m. at a Tesla Collision Center located in the 6000 block of West Badura Avenue, as per a report from the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The incident marks one of the latest attacks against the electric vehicle maker’s property and vehicles.

A video taken of the incident shows several Tesla vehicles burning. Photos from the location also show that the Tesla service center had been vandalized with graffiti.

Arson Suspected

While an investigation is ongoing, the blaze is believed to be deliberately set. Authorities noted that “Communications received information that an individual had set several vehicles on fire in the parking lot and caused damage to the property.” The individual suspected of the attack, however, does not seem to be apprehended yet.

Federal agents are assisting the investigation, with the FBI confirming its involvement to the Review-Journal. As per the FBI, it “has personnel on scene to offer assistance to LVMPD.”

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Previous Warnings

While attacks on Tesla seem to be quite prevalent today, key officials in the United States have issued stern warnings to those who have participated in destructive behavior against the company. These include U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned that those attacking companies like Tesla, which provide jobs to thousands of Americans, will be caught, and they will “go through hell.”

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi also recently noted that the person who threw Molotov cocktails at a Tesla store is currently in jail and facing up to 20 years in prison. Bondi also stated that an investigation is underway to determine who is funding the destructive actions against the electric vehicle maker.

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Tesla FSD rivalry heats up in China as Zeekr launches free version

Zeekr’s new hands-on, lidar-based system is set to challenge Tesla FSD in China. Will “free” give Zeekr an edge? 

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tesla-vs-zeeker-driver-assist-system
(Credit: Zeekr)

Tesla FSD rivalry is heating up in China as another competitor, Zeekr, launches a free version of its advanced driver-assistance system.

Zeekr’s driver-assist system will enable car owners to drive nearly autonomously from one location to a pre-set destination. Drivers are required to keep their hands on the steering wheel at all times during the drive. Zeekr’s diver-assistance system is in the process of retrieving regulatory approval in China. The Chinese company plans to release the free version to a pilot test group before its full launch to the public in April.

“Right now, in this period of development, I think subscriptions aren’t that meaningful,” Zeekr CEO Andy An told CNBC.

He noted that the intense competition in the driver-assistance and autonomous driving space means Zeekr must become a top player. “So we need to bear some cost,” he added.

Zeekr’s driver-assistance system uses two Nvidia Orin X chipsets and one lidar to help vehicles navigate. However, the company already has plans to improve its system in the future with Nvidia’s Thor automotive chip, one long-range lidar, and four short-range lidar units. Although Zeekr’s CEO noted that the company’s cars sold abroad will not use Nvidia chips for now due to differences in regulations and local market demand.

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“Using lidar may increase cost, but this reflects how much we value safety,” commented An.

Zeekr’s use of lidar already sets it apart from Tesla’s Full Self-Driving. Tesla is considered a leading company in the driver-assist and autonomous driving space. The American-based company’s FSD does not use lidar and does not rely on pre-set destinations. Tesla FSD is currently in the middle of the regulation process in China and Europe.

Tesla China recently rolled out a promotion for FSD, as it believes customers just need to try it to appreciate its capabilities. Tesla China is offering new customers in China one free month of FSD between March 17 and April 16, 2025. Baidu engineers are helping with Tesla FSD improvements in China.

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RBC cuts Tesla’s price target to $320, with a potential upside of 34%

RBC slashes its TSLA price target from $440 to $320 but still sees a potential 34% upside!

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Credit: Jim Koehler | X

RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan cut Tesla’s price target from $440 to $320. RBC is the latest firm to lower its Tesla price target. However, the RBC analyst’s new TSLA price target still represents a potential upside of 34%.

Narayan follows other TSLA analysts who have cut their price targets for the company. Goldman Sachs also lowered its Telsa price target to $320 from $345. Last week, Wells Fargo slashed its TSLA price target to $130 from $135.

Narayan kept an “Outperform” rating on Tesla’s shares. His latest Tesla price target is based on lowered expectations around the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities. “We now assume Tesla FSD pricing drops to $50/month in 2026 from $100/month today,” noted the RBC analyst.

Narayan emphasized that Tesla is facing pressure from competition in markets abroad, specifically in China. “While we do think it unwise to extrapolate too much from car demand dynamics, Tesla is losing market share in Europe and China.

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“In China, in particular, competition is intensifying. Further, on robotaxis, we think it likely that domestic OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] will dominate the market. As a result, we now lower our market share assumption to 10% from 20% in both markets,” he said.

Narayan stands in stark contrast to other analysts who have mostly based their TSLA price target cuts on its lower-than-expected Q1 2025 delivery numbers. The RBC analyst believes delivery fears have been “overblown.”

“Although sales fell sharply in Europe (45% in January) and China (60% in January and 21% in February), these regions represent a small portion of Tesla’s total sales compared to their annual figures (311k in Europe and 683k in China for ’24). Tesla’s U.S. sales, on the other hand, saw modest increases,” he noted.

The majority of analysts see Tesla’s Full Self-Driving as a positive driving force in Tesla stock. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, for example, predicts Tesla will rebound over 90% within the next year. Jonas lists Tesla’s FSD Unsupervised use in paid rideshare services in Texas as one of the catalysts for TSLA stocks to rise back up.

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